(01-18-2022 04:38 PM)maccoog Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 02:56 PM)Coog Engineer Wrote:  Wasn't the UH contract with the B12 was revealed recently? No reason to think the other schools contracts aren't similar in regards to the money issue, but it looks quite clear why the 4 schools likely won't be joining sooner than 2023, and possibly not until 2024 for schools not named BYU.

Basically UH doesn't start getting any B12 money until 2024, so no real impetus to not only pay more in exit fees, but to compete in the B12 essentially for free for one year instead of getting paid AAC money.

What I saw of the contract, it didn't say that. And if you got the contract info off of the pay site I did, you don't need to be sharing information with the public anyway.

LOL I got that information off a website that got it from a public information request from the university, so slow your roll. The UH is a public university, so information like this HAS to be made public, so if you thought you're getting top secret information from your "pay site", I think you're getting ripped off a little.

Anyway, I didn't quote the contract, just regurgitated what it meant to me when I read it. I'm no lawyer, so I don't owe you any corrections either.

I might have misinterpreted this part, but its difficult to know how it applies if UH joins earlier than 2025.

"The day that full revenue distribution begins for UH is the same as the current grant of rights (GOR) for the Big 12 ends.

This means UH (and likely Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU) will not receive a full distribution for at least the first year. In all likelihood, Houston will not receive any conference revenue until the current GOR ends even if UH enters the league next summer. Texas and Oklahoma are bound to the Big 12’s grant of rights (GOR) through 7/1/2025, and unless an early separation agreement is signed, they will be due their full shares."


BTW, here's what was posted, with redactions on sensitive parts.

UH B12 contract information

(01-18-2022 05:25 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:17 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:05 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 04:41 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 04:35 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  We don’t get a FULL share until the new contract is negotiated, but we still get about $18-19M per school I believe, which is almost triple what the AAC currently gives us.

I think the new b-12 tv contract will be brutally less than 18m

It won’t.

Do tell…

why don't you tell. brutally less than 18m means what exactly? 10m? slightly more than what the AAC got? so the remaining 8 + the 4 new comers have the same amount of brand value as the current AAC?

Ok it’s just my opinion and mybe its 10m?, I fear the new b-12 will be G6 and most likely not get an automatic playoff spot in the new playoffs heck mybe even the ACC will be knocked out of A5, I feel like there’s gonna be a shocking bunch of changes for college sports not just football

(01-18-2022 06:19 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:25 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:17 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:05 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 04:41 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  I think the new b-12 tv contract will be brutally less than 18m

It won’t.

Do tell…

why don't you tell. brutally less than 18m means what exactly? 10m? slightly more than what the AAC got? so the remaining 8 + the 4 new comers have the same amount of brand value as the current AAC?

Ok it’s just my opinion and mybe its 10m?, I fear the new b-12 will be G6 and most likely not get an automatic playoff spot in the new playoffs heck mybe even the ACC will be knocked out of A5, I feel like there’s gonna be a shocking bunch of changes for college sports not just football

I believe in the opposite. I believe that there will in fact be a Power 5 with the Big 12 among them. I also believe that all of them will go to 16 teams. Further more, I believe with the NCAA's restructuring/review of their laws, they may actually create an upper Division of the BCS Division and they will be your true Power League.

Just my opinion of course.

(01-18-2022 05:50 PM)Coog Engineer Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 04:38 PM)maccoog Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 02:56 PM)Coog Engineer Wrote:  Wasn't the UH contract with the B12 was revealed recently? No reason to think the other schools contracts aren't similar in regards to the money issue, but it looks quite clear why the 4 schools likely won't be joining sooner than 2023, and possibly not until 2024 for schools not named BYU.

Basically UH doesn't start getting any B12 money until 2024, so no real impetus to not only pay more in exit fees, but to compete in the B12 essentially for free for one year instead of getting paid AAC money.

What I saw of the contract, it didn't say that. And if you got the contract info off of the pay site I did, you don't need to be sharing information with the public anyway.

LOL I got that information off a website that got it from a public information request from the university, so slow your roll. The UH is a public university, so information like this HAS to be made public, so if you thought you're getting top secret information from your "pay site", I think you're getting ripped off a little.

Anyway, I didn't quote the contract, just regurgitated what it meant to me when I read it. I'm no lawyer, so I don't owe you any corrections either.

I might have misinterpreted this part, but its difficult to know how it applies if UH joins earlier than 2025.

"The day that full revenue distribution begins for UH is the same as the current grant of rights (GOR) for the Big 12 ends.

This means UH (and likely Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU) will not receive a full distribution for at least the first year. In all likelihood, Houston will not receive any conference revenue until the current GOR ends even if UH enters the league next summer. Texas and Oklahoma are bound to the Big 12’s grant of rights (GOR) through 7/1/2025, and unless an early separation agreement is signed, they will be due their full shares."


BTW, here's what was posted, with redactions on sensitive parts.

UH B12 contract information

We got our information from the same source. You posted your opinion as fact so I corrected you. You have subsequently stated it was your opinion in your response to me. I have accomplished what I meant to accomplish.

(01-18-2022 06:50 PM)maccoog Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:50 PM)Coog Engineer Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 04:38 PM)maccoog Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 02:56 PM)Coog Engineer Wrote:  Wasn't the UH contract with the B12 was revealed recently? No reason to think the other schools contracts aren't similar in regards to the money issue, but it looks quite clear why the 4 schools likely won't be joining sooner than 2023, and possibly not until 2024 for schools not named BYU.

Basically UH doesn't start getting any B12 money until 2024, so no real impetus to not only pay more in exit fees, but to compete in the B12 essentially for free for one year instead of getting paid AAC money.

What I saw of the contract, it didn't say that. And if you got the contract info off of the pay site I did, you don't need to be sharing information with the public anyway.

LOL I got that information off a website that got it from a public information request from the university, so slow your roll. The UH is a public university, so information like this HAS to be made public, so if you thought you're getting top secret information from your "pay site", I think you're getting ripped off a little.

Anyway, I didn't quote the contract, just regurgitated what it meant to me when I read it. I'm no lawyer, so I don't owe you any corrections either.

I might have misinterpreted this part, but its difficult to know how it applies if UH joins earlier than 2025.

"The day that full revenue distribution begins for UH is the same as the current grant of rights (GOR) for the Big 12 ends.

This means UH (and likely Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU) will not receive a full distribution for at least the first year. In all likelihood, Houston will not receive any conference revenue until the current GOR ends even if UH enters the league next summer. Texas and Oklahoma are bound to the Big 12’s grant of rights (GOR) through 7/1/2025, and unless an early separation agreement is signed, they will be due their full shares."


BTW, here's what was posted, with redactions on sensitive parts.

UH B12 contract information

We got our information from the same source. You posted your opinion as fact so I corrected you. You have subsequently stated it was your opinion in your response to me. I have accomplished what I meant to accomplish.

LOL

Except I didn't get my info from behind a pay site, per se, if that was your "correction", so not sure how you should feel like you accomplished anything other than sounding anal. Im sure the site I referenced charges for extra content, but what I posted wasn't privileged info like you claimed it was, so Tit on your Tat.

Enjoy the cookie you feel you won.

(01-18-2022 06:45 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 06:19 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:25 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:17 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:05 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  It won’t.

Do tell…

why don't you tell. brutally less than 18m means what exactly? 10m? slightly more than what the AAC got? so the remaining 8 + the 4 new comers have the same amount of brand value as the current AAC?

Ok it’s just my opinion and mybe its 10m?, I fear the new b-12 will be G6 and most likely not get an automatic playoff spot in the new playoffs heck mybe even the ACC will be knocked out of A5, I feel like there’s gonna be a shocking bunch of changes for college sports not just football

I believe in the opposite. I believe that there will in fact be a Power 5 with the Big 12 among them. I also believe that all of them will go to 16 teams. Further more, I believe with the NCAA's restructuring/review of their laws, they may actually create an upper Division of the BCS Division and they will be your true Power League.

Just my opinion of course.

Looking at viewers -- removing OU/UT but bumping back up for the new programs -- I'll throw out a way too early guess of $200 million per year for the primary media rights contract for the post-OU/UT Big12. While that's a haircut for the legacy B12 teams in total amount, PLUS dividing a smaller pie by 12 instead of 10, that's still double (and a little more) the AAC's primary media rights contract.

That's way too early because the Big10 and Pac12 new contracts will come first. Maybe the network partners spend all their money there. Maybe a network "loses" in those deals and is willing to pay the new Big12 more to make up ground. Maybe a network pushing all its chips in on a Big Noon construct convinces the Pac12 to get more Mountain/Central Time Zone properties -- new Big 12 as a whole could lose, individual new Big 12 institutions could get a new Willy Wonka Golden Ticket, AAC could get targeted again in second order effects (bad for the conference, maybe good for one or two or four members).

Let's not confuse the primary media rights with the overall conference distributions -- while the Big12 media revenue in the last Form 990 was $240 million (going off memory) the distributions were widely reported to be around $35 million for each of ten teams, so there is another $100 million coming in to the conference and being paid out to the teams.
75-80% of that is CFP revenue, in large part Sugar Bowl "contract bowl" money. It looks like that will remain for the extent of the current CFP construct. Another big chunk is probably NCAA MBB tournament money, which departing teams traditionally leave with their jilted conference.

So a SWAG of new-Big12 new media contract plus other revenues divided by twelve teams is likely $20-25 million per team.
If CFP expansion/restructure DOES double that money, we're in the neighborhood of $30 million per school for the new Big12.
AAC media rights (which we still haven't seen the new deal kick in the ducats) plus a doubling of CFP revenues for our smaller slice of expanded/restructured CFP plus NCAA MBB tourney provides a SWAG of...I dunno, $12 million, maybe a little more.

AAC will remain ahead of the G4s, but potentially the gap to the autonomy conferences increases.

(01-18-2022 07:12 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 06:45 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 06:19 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:25 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:17 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Do tell…

why don't you tell. brutally less than 18m means what exactly? 10m? slightly more than what the AAC got? so the remaining 8 + the 4 new comers have the same amount of brand value as the current AAC?

Ok it’s just my opinion and mybe its 10m?, I fear the new b-12 will be G6 and most likely not get an automatic playoff spot in the new playoffs heck mybe even the ACC will be knocked out of A5, I feel like there’s gonna be a shocking bunch of changes for college sports not just football

I believe in the opposite. I believe that there will in fact be a Power 5 with the Big 12 among them. I also believe that all of them will go to 16 teams. Further more, I believe with the NCAA's restructuring/review of their laws, they may actually create an upper Division of the BCS Division and they will be your true Power League.

Just my opinion of course.

Looking at viewers -- removing OU/UT but bumping back up for the new programs -- I'll throw out a way too early guess of $200 million per year for the primary media rights contract for the post-OU/UT Big12. While that's a haircut for the legacy B12 teams in total amount, PLUS dividing a smaller pie by 12 instead of 10, that's still double (and a little more) the AAC's primary media rights contract.

That's way too early because the Big10 and Pac12 new contracts will come first. Maybe the network partners spend all their money there. Maybe a network "loses" in those deals and is willing to pay the new Big12 more to make up ground. Maybe a network pushing all its chips in on a Big Noon construct convinces the Pac12 to get more Mountain/Central Time Zone properties -- new Big 12 as a whole could lose, individual new Big 12 institutions could get a new Willy Wonka Golden Ticket, AAC could get targeted again in second order effects (bad for the conference, maybe good for one or two or four members).

Let's not confuse the primary media rights with the overall conference distributions -- while the Big12 media revenue in the last Form 990 was $240 million (going off memory) the distributions were widely reported to be around $35 million for each of ten teams, so there is another $100 million coming in to the conference and being paid out to the teams.
75-80% of that is CFP revenue, in large part Sugar Bowl "contract bowl" money. It looks like that will remain for the extent of the current CFP construct. Another big chunk is probably NCAA MBB tournament money, which departing teams traditionally leave with their jilted conference.

So a SWAG of new-Big12 new media contract plus other revenues divided by twelve teams is likely $20-25 million per team.
If CFP expansion/restructure DOES double that money, we're in the neighborhood of $30 million per school for the new Big12.
AAC media rights (which we still haven't seen the new deal kick in the ducats) plus a doubling of CFP revenues for our smaller slice of expanded/restructured CFP plus NCAA MBB tourney provides a SWAG of...I dunno, $12 million, maybe a little more.

AAC will remain ahead of the G4s, but potentially the gap to the autonomy conferences increases.

They could also follow the latest AAC model and have the incoming schools get less, keeping the L8 from losing money and the newcomers even while not getting full share making more than they do now.

Anyways as you said the PAC contract comes first and that will give them an idea.
CFP won’t change until probably 2026 as well as bowls tie ins

So
BigTen ends after 2022-23
PAC tv contract ends 2023-24
Big12 tv deal ends 2024-25
CFP and bowl contracts ends 2025-26

If that happens it’s not a full 28 months and therefore the exit fee goes up.

We can charge a premium and honestly, there’s no reason not to. $15 million each sounds about right to me. $45 million total, 8 teams and 1 share to the conference. So $5 million a piece. $7 mill tv deal, $5 million from exit fees and around $3 more from playoff money, bowl games and NCAA tourney credits. $15 million total for 2023… not bad.

(01-18-2022 02:02 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 01:47 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Why not just do this in 2022 without a lame duck year? New members join earlier too.

its better for all parties to wait, more time to prep

throwing aac recruited rosters vs p5 recruited team is not smart... same year moves only make sense if its to a similar level

...I concur... ...you might end up with some weird football mismatch, like... ...oh, I don't know... BYU versus UAB or something crazy like that...



(sorry, couldn't resist... )

(01-18-2022 02:56 PM)Coog Engineer Wrote:  Wasn't the UH contract with the B12 was revealed recently? No reason to think the other schools contracts aren't similar in regards to the money issue, but it looks quite clear why the 4 schools likely won't be joining sooner than 2023, and possibly not until 2024 for schools not named BYU.

Basically UH doesn't start getting any B12 money until 2024, so no real impetus to not only pay more in exit fees, but to compete in the B12 essentially for free for one year instead of getting paid AAC money.

I dont think thats what the contract says. It basically says NO money until you actually join (be it 2022 or 2024) and we dont get a full share until 2025 (if I remember correctly). That said--unless something unexpected happens, it appears everyone is looking at 2023 as the date for the move.

(01-18-2022 04:41 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 04:35 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 02:56 PM)Coog Engineer Wrote:  Wasn't the UH contract with the B12 was revealed recently? No reason to think the other schools contracts aren't similar in regards to the money issue, but it looks quite clear why the 4 schools likely won't be joining sooner than 2023, and possibly not until 2024 for schools not named BYU.

Basically UH doesn't start getting any B12 money until 2024, so no real impetus to not only pay more in exit fees, but to compete in the B12 essentially for free for one year instead of getting paid AAC money.

We don’t get a FULL share until the new contract is negotiated, but we still get about $18-19M per school I believe, which is almost triple what the AAC currently gives us.

I think the new b-12 tv contract will be brutally less than 18m

Nobody really knows what the Big12's future holds----but its worth noting that NBC just resigned the Premier League for about 450 million a year. The Premier League Games on NBC average fewer viewers than the Big12 "leftover's" games. So, I suspect the Big12 will do better than many expect when it comes time to make their deal.

(01-18-2022 10:44 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  If that happens it’s not a full 28 months and therefore the exit fee goes up.

We can charge a premium and honestly, there’s no reason not to. $15 million each sounds about right to me. $45 million total, 8 teams and 1 share to the conference. So $5 million a piece. $7 mill tv deal, $5 million from exit fees and around $3 more from playoff money, bowl games and NCAA tourney credits. $15 million total for 2023… not bad.

Many times the exit fees are paid out over several years. If it's $15 million we might as well get the uconn $17 million deal to leave immediately. My guess is $10 -$12 if we stay until 2023.

(01-19-2022 12:49 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 02:56 PM)Coog Engineer Wrote:  Wasn't the UH contract with the B12 was revealed recently? No reason to think the other schools contracts aren't similar in regards to the money issue, but it looks quite clear why the 4 schools likely won't be joining sooner than 2023, and possibly not until 2024 for schools not named BYU.

Basically UH doesn't start getting any B12 money until 2024, so no real impetus to not only pay more in exit fees, but to compete in the B12 essentially for free for one year instead of getting paid AAC money.

I dont think thats what the contract says. It basically says NO money until you actually join (be it 2022 or 2024) and we dont get a full share until 2025 (if I remember correctly). That said--unless something unexpected happens, it appears everyone is looking at 2023 as the date for the move.

Well, you would think so but then they keep throwing in the bit about the current GOR that runs until UT and OU leave, so sounds like that is the start of cash flow? I dunno.

(01-18-2022 07:24 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 07:12 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 06:45 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 06:19 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 05:25 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  

AAC media rights (which we still haven't seen the new deal kick in the ducats) plus a doubling of CFP revenues for our smaller slice of expanded/restructured CFP plus NCAA MBB tourney provides a SWAG of...I dunno, $12 million, maybe a little more.

AAC will remain ahead of the G4s, but potentially the gap to the autonomy conferences increases.

They could also follow the latest AAC model and have the incoming schools get less, keeping the L8 from losing money and the newcomers even while not getting full share making more than they do now.

Anyways as you said the PAC contract comes first and that will give them an idea.
CFP won’t change until probably 2026 as well as bowls tie ins

So
BigTen ends after 2022-23
PAC tv contract ends 2023-24
Big12 tv deal ends 2024-25
CFP and bowl contracts ends 2025-26

That will happen until 2025 when current deal ends. Same in AAC until their deal ends in 10 years or so. 2025/26 will tell the tale for B12. AAC has until 2031.
What our opinions are until then don't really matter.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when the Big 12 did the circus with interviewing schools and ultimately decided against expanding, wasn't one of the reason to strong arm espn into paying more to the current teams while removing language in their current contract the guarantees new equal pay for new members? If that is the case, the media partners would have to agree to pay new members if they come on board under this current contract.......otherwise there is no extra money from espn. If OU and Texas stay until 2025, where is this extra money coming from for 23 and 24? Exit fees usually pay out over a period of time and don't start until a team leaves, and it's safe to say the left behinds will want it all. Soooooo I just do not understand who will be paying these newbies if they join before 25?

I absolutely hate 'lame duck' years for anyone. If schools are going to change conferences, then just get it over with, so everyone can go about establishing new rivalries and getting familiar with their new conference-mates. Why prolong anything...

That said... after a few rounds of this I've come to this conclusion: If you are not in the SEC or B10, there is no such thing as a final conference membership. Period. Especially for the new AAC and the new B12. I really congratulate UCF, Cin and Houston on the move up, well deserved, and sure we'd all take it (better to be in the #5 conference than the #6), but I'd bet my house neither conference looks the same in 5-10 years. I think thats why the AAC went big and added 6... more losses are coming. Likely into the B12, who is also going to lose more schools...

It's a shame but money means more than logic and rivalries these days... and CFB is now just another business. Becoming minor league pro football... which literally won't work for universities/students, so more change is coming.

(01-19-2022 09:02 AM)Bull Wrote:  I absolutely hate 'lame duck' years for anyone. If schools are going to change conferences, then just get it over with, so everyone can go about establishing new rivalries and getting familiar with their new conference-mates. Why prolong anything...

That said... after a few rounds of this I've come to this conclusion: If you are not in the SEC or B10, there is no such thing as a final conference membership. Period. Especially for the new AAC and the new B12. I really congratulate UCF, Cin and Houston on the move up, well deserved, and sure we'd all take it (better to be in the #5 conference than the #6), but I'd bet my house neither conference looks the same in 5-10 years. I think thats why the AAC went big and added 6... more losses are coming. Likely into the B12, who is also going to lose more schools...

It's a shame but money means more than logic and rivalries these days... and CFB is now just another business. Becoming minor league pro football... which literally won't work for universities/students, so more change is coming.

I think that is likely a good guess.

(01-19-2022 09:01 AM)otown Wrote:  Correct me if I'm wrong, but when the Big 12 did the circus with interviewing schools and ultimately decided against expanding, wasn't one of the reason to strong arm espn into paying more to the current teams while removing language in their current contract the guarantees new equal pay for new members? If that is the case, the media partners would have to agree to pay new members if they come on board under this current contract.......otherwise there is no extra money from espn. If OU and Texas stay until 2025, where is this extra money coming from for 23 and 24? Exit fees usually pay out over a period of time and don't start until a team leaves, and it's safe to say the left behinds will want it all. Soooooo I just do not understand who will be paying these newbies if they join before 25?

They aren't.

But shhhhhhhhhhhh, you're going to ruin the Houston, UCF, Cincy fans delusion. They are going to pay a lot in entrance and exit fees, to not make very much more money.

As you correctly pointed out there is no spare money in the media deal and OU/Texas are not leaving till 2025. If they do the contract will be renegotiated right then, meaning still no money.

In 2025 the B12 will be renegotiating a deal with 50% or more of its value gone to the SEC, but those left behind 8 schools just like the left behind AAC teams don't want to take a pay cut, so uneven distribution will be necessary for the old B12 members to keep their almost 20m in media. So it seems unlikely that the three will recieve significantly more than two or three million on what they would of made here. Which had they stayed, that would likely have earned them a similar pay raise in the AAC with out the extra fees.

Of course after OU/Texas leave ESPN could just finish kneecapping the B12 like they did the Big East, and we'll see five or six of the left behind 8 bail when the media deal is announced.

(01-19-2022 11:25 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(01-19-2022 09:01 AM)otown Wrote:  Correct me if I'm wrong, but when the Big 12 did the circus with interviewing schools and ultimately decided against expanding, wasn't one of the reason to strong arm espn into paying more to the current teams while removing language in their current contract the guarantees new equal pay for new members? If that is the case, the media partners would have to agree to pay new members if they come on board under this current contract.......otherwise there is no extra money from espn. If OU and Texas stay until 2025, where is this extra money coming from for 23 and 24? Exit fees usually pay out over a period of time and don't start until a team leaves, and it's safe to say the left behinds will want it all. Soooooo I just do not understand who will be paying these newbies if they join before 25?

They aren't.

But shhhhhhhhhhhh, you're going to ruin the Houston, UCF, Cincy fans delusion. They are going to pay a lot in entrance and exit fees, to not make very much more money.

As you correctly pointed out there is no spare money in the media deal and OU/Texas are not leaving till 2025. If they do the contract will be renegotiated right then, meaning still no money.

In 2025 the B12 will be renegotiating a deal with 50% or more of its value gone to the SEC, but those left behind 8 schools just like the left behind AAC teams don't want to take a pay cut, so uneven distribution will be necessary for the old B12 members to keep their almost 20m in media. So it seems unlikely that the three will recieve significantly more than two or three million on what they would of made here. Which had they stayed, that would likely have earned them a similar pay raise in the AAC with out the extra fees.

Of course after OU/Texas leave ESPN could just finish kneecapping the B12 like they did the Big East, and we'll see five or six of the left behind 8 bail when the media deal is announced.

This coming from someone who was wrong at every turn during this re alignment.