With yesterday's results, it looks less likely APR will even be a factor.

At this point, I expect 82 teams to qualify at 6-6 or better.

(11-21-2021 05:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  With yesterday's results, it looks less likely APR will even be a factor.

At this point, I expect 82 teams to qualify at 6-6 or better.

I dunno. we basically have 76 teams qualified with 14 teams left. (we're at 72 with 22 left and 4 games with 5-6 teams).

leaves 14 games and would need 6 to win. Only 3 are favorites I think.

(11-21-2021 06:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 05:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  With yesterday's results, it looks less likely APR will even be a factor.

At this point, I expect 82 teams to qualify at 6-6 or better.

I dunno. we basically have 76 teams qualified with 14 teams left. (we're at 72 with 22 left and 4 games with 5-6 teams).

leaves 14 games and would need 6 to win. Only 3 are favorites I think.

West Virginia (Kansas), Memphis (Tulane) and Ball State (Buffalo) are favored this week. Most of the others are double digit underdogs. Then again, I really didn't expect South Carolina to qualify, so what do I know?

(11-21-2021 11:43 AM)Chris02m1 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 11:19 AM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 02:19 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so we have 72,
have 4 where teams have to play each other where 1 has to go
have 3 where 5-6 teams are favorites.

That's 79. Going to need 3 upsets.

There will be at least 76 qualifying with 6 wins. At best (worst) there will be 6 APR qualifiers. If you are 5-6 and lose your game, you will want the higher APR ranked team to win the four head-to-head match-ups of 5-6 teams, since that will take one of the regular slots, and not one of the potential APR slots.

So we want
Middle Tennessee (APR T18) over Florida Atlantic T71
Rutgers T31 over Maryland T99
ODU T85 over Charlotte T119
Florida T43 over FSU T125

That gives a potential list of 6 APR qualifiers.

Memphis T27
Ball State T61
Florida Atlantic T71
Syracuse T71
North Texas T85
Troy T85

Troy would need to lose, and Tulsa, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, TCU, North Texas, Ball State, San Jose State, LSU, South Alabama, Hawai'i, Maryland, Charlotte, and FSU to lose.

Any of these teams could enter the list with a loss.

Middle Tennessee T18
Rutgers T31
Florida T43
ODU T85

In addition, these (4-7) teams could qualify by APR with a win:

Washington 1
Texas T43
Illinois T58
ULM 70

These (4-6) teams could qualify by APR with a win and a loss.

Cal 38
USC T58

These teams need a win to qualify because they won't based on APR.

WVU T90
TCU T92
Virginia Tech T95
Maryland T99
South Alabama
San Jose State T109
LSU T109
Hawaii T113
Tulsa T119
Charlotte T119
FSU T125

There are potentially 90 teams with 6 wins, so even a win does not guarantee a bowl.

didnt pac 12 pass a erule about 5 win teams not being bowl eligible?

Yes. The Pac-12 has a rule that teams have to have at least 6 wins to play in a bowl game.

(11-21-2021 11:43 AM)Chris02m1 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 11:19 AM)jimrtex Wrote:  There are potentially 90 teams with 6 wins, so even a win does not guarantee a bowl.

didnt pac 12 pass a erule about 5 win teams not being bowl eligible?

Apparently so, according to this article from 2018.

Pac-12 passes rule requiring 6 wins for bowl eligibility

I liked Mike Leach (in 2018 head coach at WSU): "If we had a 5-7 team lucky enough to make a bowl, they could probably use the practice and the players would probably appreciate the chance to play another game."

(11-21-2021 05:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Actually they look at 5-7 teams first and sort by APR. Those 4-8 or worse are out already.

Those who are at 4-7 can win to get to 5-7 via APR.

(11-21-2021 10:09 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 05:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Actually they look at 5-7 teams first and sort by APR. Those 4-8 or worse are out already.

Those who are at 4-7 can win to get to 5-7 via APR.

yeah although only 1 of the 4-7 teams are favorites this weekend- Illinois.

(11-21-2021 10:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 10:09 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 05:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Actually they look at 5-7 teams first and sort by APR. Those 4-8 or worse are out already.

Those who are at 4-7 can win to get to 5-7 via APR.

yeah although only 1 of the 4-7 teams are favorites this weekend- Illinois.

There are four match-ups of 5-6 teams. Winner is bowl eligible.

73. ODU -10 v. Charlotte +10
74. Florida Atlantic -4 v. Middle Tennessee +4
75. Maryland -2 @ Rutgers +2
76. Florida -2 v. FSU

Three 5-5 favored to win.

77. West Virginia -15 v. Kansas
78. Ball State -6.5 v. Buffalo
79. Memphis -5.5 v. Tulane

5 Underdogs about by about a TD.

80T. Troy +6.5 @ Georgia State
80T. Tulsa +6.5 @ SMU
80T. LSU +6.5 v. Texas A&M
83T. San Jose State +7.5 v. Fresno State
83T. Virginia Tech +7.5 @ Virginia

You are at 84 if all these teams win. But that is five of seven teams that must win to get to 82 (including Ball State and Memphis). If we were flipping coins, that is 23% chance of 82 or more.

27% of 81
27% of 80
16% of 79
5% of 78
1% of 77

5 underdogs at more than a TD. But let's say that each had a 13% chance of an upset. That is about 1/2 more eligible.

85. Hawai'i +10 @ Wyoming
86. Syracuse +11 v. Pitt
87. North Texas +12 v. UTSA
88T. South Alabama +14.5 v Coastal California
88T. TCU +14.5 @ Iowa State

And then there are 4-6 Cal and USC. Only one may qualify since they play each other on December 4.

Cal +7 @ UCLA
USC +7 v. BYU

I think the best guess is 81 or 82. It won't be 76 or 90 which are the extreme possibilities.

(11-21-2021 06:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-21-2021 05:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  With yesterday's results, it looks less likely APR will even be a factor.

At this point, I expect 82 teams to qualify at 6-6 or better.

I dunno. we basically have 76 teams qualified with 14 teams left. (we're at 72 with 22 left and 4 games with 5-6 teams).

leaves 14 games and would need 6 to win. Only 3 are favorites I think.

I don't know either, LOL. But I am predicting that we get to 82 via the regular route.

But I could be wrong.

Ball State is in.

Yeah Ball St is #73. Got 5 to go after the 5-6 games- with only 2 favorites left.

Western Michigan hits 7 w/ a W over Northern Illinois tonight, I'd say they're a lock.

Ball St hits 6, we'll see.

(11-23-2021 10:27 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Western Michigan hits 7 w/ a W over Northern Illinois tonight, I'd say they're a lock.

Ball St hits 6, we'll see.

Given where we are- any team that is bowl eligible is going to be going bowling. We're not going to have enough teams quite likely or just at the 82 teams.

Do people like watching 5-7 teams in bowl games? 6-6 is already mediocre as is but at least it’s .500

They ought to cut the Fenway & Yankee Bowls. Those stadiums get used plenty, it’s cold, & personally the sight lines are weird for football from what I see.

(11-23-2021 10:27 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Western Michigan hits 7 w/ a W over Northern Illinois tonight, I'd say they're a lock.

Ball St hits 6, we'll see.

And with WMU's win last night, no MAC team has fewer than four losses.

(11-24-2021 03:35 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Do people like watching 5-7 teams in bowl games? 6-6 is already mediocre as is but at least it’s .500

They ought to cut the Fenway & Yankee Bowls. Those stadiums get used plenty, it’s cold, & personally the sight lines are weird for football from what I see.

It's still New York and Boston and two unique baseball stadiums. There's other bowls I'd dump before them. Boise, Shreveport, Detroit, ...

(11-24-2021 07:54 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 03:35 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Do people like watching 5-7 teams in bowl games? 6-6 is already mediocre as is but at least it’s .500

They ought to cut the Fenway & Yankee Bowls. Those stadiums get used plenty, it’s cold, & personally the sight lines are weird for football from what I see.

It's still New York and Boston and two unique baseball stadiums. There's other bowls I'd dump before them. Boise, Shreveport, Detroit, ...

Boise is a classic bowl game, quiet town that is close to ski areas. Shreveport isn’t that great but Independence is a classic bowl game, Detroit is about the only G5-P5 for the MAC but I agree on that.

I’d probably get rid of one the P5 San Jose 49ers Bowl & G5 Camelia Bowl because Montgomery, Alabama seems meh realistically. I also wish they’d move one do the Dallas bowls back to the Cotton Bowl.

They gotta stop sending 5-7 teams to bowl games.

Detroit is not getting dumped as long as it's a primary MAC tie-in.

(11-24-2021 07:54 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-24-2021 03:35 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Do people like watching 5-7 teams in bowl games? 6-6 is already mediocre as is but at least it’s .500

They ought to cut the Fenway & Yankee Bowls. Those stadiums get used plenty, it’s cold, & personally the sight lines are weird for football from what I see.

It's still New York and Boston and two unique baseball stadiums. There's other bowls I'd dump before them. Boise, Shreveport, Detroit, ...

Agree. I've liked the Pinstripe Bowl since day one.

IMO, it is fun to see outdoor bowls in cold-weather cities up north. If anything, we need more of those, not less. Wack a few of those redundant southern or western bowls if we must.

(11-24-2021 03:35 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Do people like watching 5-7 teams in bowl games? 6-6 is already mediocre as is but at least it’s .500

They ought to cut the Fenway & Yankee Bowls. Those stadiums get used plenty, it’s cold, & personally the sight lines are weird for football from what I see.

I like having the option to watch as much football as possible.

As long as there's a market for medicore/bad bowls, then who are we to intercede on that market? If ESPN didn't find them to have value, then they would get rid of them and we wouldn't be having this discussion... but they clearly see that they have value and in fact has bought a bunch of them outright. Even the worst bowl games have ratings that are on par with or better than all but a handful of regular season college basketball games.

Frankly, I go the opposite direction and would rather just allow everyone to have a 13th game regardless of record at this point.