(09-28-2021 12:36 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  One speculation is also whether AFA/CSU is entirely independent of trying to woo Army, or whether the idea is to get it ready to go ahead and then talking to Army to see if it shifts their position. If CSU moving was riding on first AFA saying yes, and second on Army then saying yes, it would be prudent to be very tight lipped about leaking it until everything is set to go.

I have neither any inside knowledge nor fan interest here. Speculation is about all I have in this case. It seems to me that there are 7 all-sports schools, 1 football only school and 1 Olympic sports school who actually get some kind of vote here. How many does it take to approve an invitation to the AAC?

I can't imagine that Temple, ECU and USF would be especially thrilled with this kind of move unless there was an as yet to be announced second move that's holding up the works. The popular view has always been that UAB was the frontrunner that ticked off all the right boxes. But unless there's another eastern team in the mix, those three eastern schools may be hard to convince.

But what if Army and AFA could be persuaded to join for FB only? Temple and ECU would be thrilled IMO. And uniting all the service academies under the banner of the AMERICAN conference certainly has great PR appeal. Realignment moves have been made for worse reasons.

(09-28-2021 01:35 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:33 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:21 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:18 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  "The biggest problem right now is no one has any faith in Craig Thompson as commissioner and there is growing concern about the league."


Is there a more thankless and helpless job in major college sports than the commissioner of conference about to lose schools to realignment?

Would love to see a detailed list of things Thompson could do to improve the MWC's membership.

What’s he supposed to do? Pull teams from the Pac 12? BYU, NMSU, and UTEP were the only expansion candidates in the footprint.

He should be knocking down Gonzaga’s door. Adding the Zags and NMSU would kickstart MWC basketball.

Doesn’t do anything for football though. Football controls everything

But adding Gonazaga would make a full member with Hawaii only football, and they would add enormous market value.

(09-28-2021 01:34 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:32 PM)esayem Wrote:  If this goes down and the AAC stops at 10, has anyone looked at a map of the conference plotted out?

I feel bad for Temple basketball. Sheeesh. It almost seems like the league is freezing out its east coast members. I mean I called it that the conference is trending west, but wow.

Temple was left out to dry once UConn left.

If the UMass model was remotely successful, Temple would be better off doing that.

Unfortunately for them, the money doesnt work

Doesn't Temple join the Big East every other decade? Ya, sadly money does not work as an independent. Could you build a new conference up there? ...

Temple, UConn (fb), UMass, Army (fb), Buffalo, Liberty... still need 4 more full-time members, so it'd have to be as part of liberating the Appalachian CUSA-East teams, and I feel those teams are alll South-leaning. I hear the OVC is taking membership calls...

(09-28-2021 01:32 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  If it's true that "the biggest problem" for AFA and CSU is lack of faith in Thompson then they should orchestrate a move to fire him and hire someone else, not move their schools to a conference with multiple members on the east coast.

Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain.

Correct. It's not like Thompson is popular with Boise State either. There are many reports Boise State's immediately prior President, AD, FB Coach all preferred Aresco over Thompson. They tried to move a year ago.

As for a vote, Wyoming will go with Colorado State on anything that maters, so at least four vote against. Most of the others do not want to lose CSU and would be willing to cut off Thompson's head if that's the price. He's old and due to retire soon anyway, so why not push up the date a few years? That is what the WAC did with Hurd.

Hard to fathom why a coup was not tried first.

But maybe the schools themselves are dysfunctional in their relationships with each other and unable to chart anything

Just stupid move for Colorado State.

(09-28-2021 11:33 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  To me why not go for Air Force and UAB only, I am not getting why two other team are a must. 10 seems more money and I don't see the CSU and another CUSA team helping with the espn contract.

12 is a better number for three reasons:
1) it makes it easier to fill the roster of Olympic sports;
2) it provides extra teams in case you lose a team or two; and
3) with more numbers you have a better chance of having a hot team in a given year.

(09-28-2021 01:35 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:00 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  You take these schools if you’re the AAC to make the basic point that the MWC is beneath you. That much is demonstrated still even now with these losses than when SDSU and Boise initially took a walk.

Football and basketball doesn’t get better in the AAC, though. I’d still like to see a Buffalo and/or VCU.

Correct.

The SEC didn't need to take Texas and Oklahoma right away to establish its poaching power over the Big 12. Texas A&M and Missouri moving made that clear from the get go.

This seems like a good expansion for the AAC when compared to their other options. I feel like waaaaay too many people are throwing out hot program names when not considering that many of these programs have only been playing FBS football for a small handful of years.

I'm not sure what to do to improve basketball in the AAC beyond "decent" adds like UAB (and, to be fair, I'd also put CSU in at least the "decent" category). VCU would be a great addition for the AAC, but I'm not sure if that would be reciprocated. I think pulling the A-10 schools is a more difficult hurdle than what a lot of people are giving it credit for here.

For "reasons" at the G5 level there seems to be a belief anything that happened more than 3 years ago doesn't count. Especially at the G5 level super recent success guarantees nothing in the future. If you are adding a school you gotta ask yourself "if they were awful for a while in both major sports would you want to be in a league with them" and for me I'd want to also ask has this school proven it can be successful across multiple coaches and can recover when things eventually do go wrong. Every school is going to eventually make a really bad hire, can you recover from it and do you bring positives to the league if you aren't currently good?

ESPN is moving into Texas and the MTZ. AAC is an ESPN conference, this makes sense especially considering USF and Memphis are on the Big XII’s radar. Temple and ECU are going to be frozen out.

(09-28-2021 01:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:21 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:18 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  "The biggest problem right now is no one has any faith in Craig Thompson as commissioner and there is growing concern about the league."


Is there a more thankless and helpless job in major college sports than the commissioner of conference about to lose schools to realignment?

Would love to see a detailed list of things Thompson could do to improve the MWC's membership.

What’s he supposed to do? Pull teams from the Pac 12? BYU, NMSU, and UTEP were the only expansion candidates in the footprint.

Right, geography severely limits potential new members for the MWC.

Unless one of these writers puts a name to their "unnamed source", though, we have no idea whether the source is some low-level dude like an assistant sports information director, or someone who actually matters like an athletic director or school president.

On top of that, we have no idea whether anyone who matters at any MWC school other than AFA or CSU is unhappy with Thompson.

Rice, UNT, UTSA and Texas St. are also adjacent to the footprint. All have been in WAC or Big West at some point in the past. Same for Tulsa and SMU, although I don't expect them to leave the AAC.

(09-28-2021 01:40 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:36 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  One speculation is also whether AFA/CSU is entirely independent of trying to woo Army, or whether the idea is to get it ready to go ahead and then talking to Army to see if it shifts their position. If CSU moving was riding on first AFA saying yes, and second on Army then saying yes, it would be prudent to be very tight lipped about leaking it until everything is set to go.

I have neither any inside knowledge nor fan interest here. Speculation is about all I have in this case. It seems to me that there are 7 all-sports schools, 1 football only school and 1 Olympic sports school who actually get some kind of vote here. How many does it take to approve an invitation to the AAC?

I can't imagine that Temple, ECU and USF would be especially thrilled with this kind of move unless there was an as yet to be announced second move that's holding up the works. The popular view has always been that UAB was the frontrunner that ticked off all the right boxes. But unless there's another eastern team in the mix, those three eastern schools may be hard to convince.

But what if Army and AFA could be persuaded to join for FB only? Temple and ECU would be thrilled IMO. And uniting all the service academies under the banner of the AMERICAN conference certainly has great PR appeal. Realignment moves have been made for worse reasons.

Temple/ECU/USF are always going to have a geography problem. Just a reality of all the eastern indy's/Big East schools that each played for years having homes in P5 leagues now. ECU does not desire to be in a regional conference just for the sake of being regional, if they did they'd have stayed in the SOCON in the 70's.

(09-28-2021 01:52 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:21 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:18 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  "The biggest problem right now is no one has any faith in Craig Thompson as commissioner and there is growing concern about the league."


Is there a more thankless and helpless job in major college sports than the commissioner of conference about to lose schools to realignment?

Would love to see a detailed list of things Thompson could do to improve the MWC's membership.

What’s he supposed to do? Pull teams from the Pac 12? BYU, NMSU, and UTEP were the only expansion candidates in the footprint.

Right, geography severely limits potential new members for the MWC.

Unless one of these writers puts a name to their "unnamed source", though, we have no idea whether the source is some low-level dude like an assistant sports information director, or someone who actually matters like an athletic director or school president.

On top of that, we have no idea whether anyone who matters at any MWC school other than AFA or CSU is unhappy with Thompson.

Rice, UNT, UTSA and Texas St. are also adjacent to the footprint. All have been in WAC or Big West at some point in the past. Same for Tulsa and SMU, although I don't expect them to leave the AAC.

El Paso is adjacent to the MWC footprint. Dallas and Houston, not so much. The four schools that you mention are all closer to the Atlantic Ocean than the Pacific Ocean.

(09-28-2021 12:19 PM)1IvyDog Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:09 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:06 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  I've been hearing the exact same thing for about a week. This is as close to a done deal as you can get without being a done deal. Early next week is when I'd expect an announcement, re: CSU/AF

Thanks for sharing that Matt.

I’m hearing Hawaii will probably become a full MWC member

Why? Big West makes a lot of sense based on travel AND sports sponsorship.

Here's a Ft. Collins source-although they are echoing national news:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/...ar-AAOVsRg

(09-28-2021 11:51 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:41 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:36 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:33 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  To me why not go for Air Force and UAB only, I am not getting why two other team are a must. 10 seems more money and I don't see the CSU and another CUSA team helping with the espn contract.

Nothing says upgrade like a perennial 300+ RPI basketball team

Nothing says AAC derangement syndrome like insisting the AAC could never add any MWC teams and then when they can switching the argument to 1 of them being awful at hoops. Don't worry the MWC still has multiple recent 300+ RPI teams in SJSU and Wyoming to continue pulling up the rear (and not that I expect them to remain this bad but New Mexico says hi with a 302 NET and 307 RPI last year).

I will believe it when I see it. If they do it, stupid on their part and they will regret it.

SJSU, UNM and Wyoming have had good teams in the recent past - AFA, because of the recruiting limitations (height) is always bad.

As far as AAC derangement, lol. AAC is a fine conference - one of the top two G5. But the only AAC Derangement is those that use P6/G4.

You can draw the 'P' line wherever you want... but you can't ignore all the NY bowls won by the AAC, the nice $$ upgrade by the AAC, great AAC OOC record against P5 teams (considering their advantage) and the simple fact that almost all the 'P' additions come out of the AAC. There is a reason for all that. The AAC did great. Calling it 'P' or not is just semantics. Fans will call it P6, everyone else will not. Who cares? Show me where the MWC/cUSA/MAC/SBC even came close...

In the end does not matter... The AAC is the real tweener, and all the P5 upgrades will continue to decimate it... but it will keep calling up the best of the below and always remain just below the P conferences. It's a funnel. But in the meantime, the exposure and cash are there to complete. Bagging P5 pelts and proving that on the field there is little separation is... fun.

(09-28-2021 01:32 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:02 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:02 AM)RamblinRedWolf Wrote:  still wild; not trying to discredit either programs but it seems like such a rash/random grab ("like hey we can't get boise and SDSU, lets go wiiiiittttthhhhh.....CSU and AF-Why not?"

Yes, I said I would bow down to Aresco if he was able to get Boise and SDSU - and I will.

But AFA and Colorado State seem like leftovers by comparison.

Would much rather the AAC go east, with schools like App State/Marshall and Georgia State/UAB. Even FAU.

But maybe the move to Dallas HQ has the conference leaders addled by more western schools.

If AFA and CSU are "leftovers" then what am I to call that collection of schools you listed? There's a reason the AAC makes 6-7 million a year, the MWC 4-5 depending on the split, and the leagues those schools reside in 1 million or less per year.

Eh, conferences and school brands are correlated but not necessa
rily all that much.

I'm not sure Colorado State and Air Force are as valuable as App State and UAB. I would take the latter over the former. Also, I'm a fan of cultural fit. IMO, the eastern schools are closer fit than those mountain schools.

IMO, Colorado State and AFA only make sense to Tulsa and SMU. For the rest of us, no.

I fear that the AAC is now fighting the wrong battle, vs the MWC. A battle to crush the MWC made sense before TX and OU left the Big 12. Now, with the L12 firmly ensconced as the "tweener" league the AAC was trying to be, battling the MW is just not relevant, IMO. Sure, you take Boise and SDSU if you can, because those are obvious very high value G5 schools. But nobody else from out there.

So you legit believe ESPN would value adding App State and UAB the same or more than CSU and AFA? Interesting change of heart for a guy who was 100% against the Big East adding UCF back in the day to think FAU would be a better add. I mean hey that's awesome if ESPN would value all those schools the same as the MWC schools, the AAC doesn't have to worry about being raided and losing value!!!

I don't know what ESPN specifically values more. I'm saying that in a general brand value sense, I don't see CSU and AFA as being any more valuable than App State and UAB.

As for my opinion about UCF, that was 10 years ago, so sure, changes of heart can happen in that time. But IIRC, I opposed UCF for the Big East primarily because they are rivals of USF, a dynamic that doesn't exist with any of these schools.

To me, CSU and AFA to the AAC is not a win for us, it's treading water, and it puts more emphasis on the west, and I already don't like how far west we already are.

IMO, for Aresco to earn his pay on this, he needs to haul in Boise and SDSU. They are worth heading far west for.

(09-28-2021 12:03 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Im hoping #12 is FAU

That makes the east a lot cleaner with
EAST: FAU-USF, Temple-ECU, Memphis-UAB
WEST: Colorado St-Air Force, Tulsa-Wichita, SMU-Tulane

if you take UTSA instead of FAU, Tulane has to go east

But Wichita State doesn't play football.

(09-28-2021 02:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:32 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:02 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, I said I would bow down to Aresco if he was able to get Boise and SDSU - and I will.

But AFA and Colorado State seem like leftovers by comparison.

Would much rather the AAC go east, with schools like App State/Marshall and Georgia State/UAB. Even FAU.

But maybe the move to Dallas HQ has the conference leaders addled by more western schools.

If AFA and CSU are "leftovers" then what am I to call that collection of schools you listed? There's a reason the AAC makes 6-7 million a year, the MWC 4-5 depending on the split, and the leagues those schools reside in 1 million or less per year.

Eh, conferences and school brands are correlated but not necessa
rily all that much.

I'm not sure Colorado State and Air Force are as valuable as App State and UAB. I would take the latter over the former. Also, I'm a fan of cultural fit. IMO, the eastern schools are closer fit than those mountain schools.

IMO, Colorado State and AFA only make sense to Tulsa and SMU. For the rest of us, no.

I fear that the AAC is now fighting the wrong battle, vs the MWC. A battle to crush the MWC made sense before TX and OU left the Big 12. Now, with the L12 firmly ensconced as the "tweener" league the AAC was trying to be, battling the MW is just not relevant, IMO. Sure, you take Boise and SDSU if you can, because those are obvious very high value G5 schools. But nobody else from out there.

So you legit believe ESPN would value adding App State and UAB the same or more than CSU and AFA? Interesting change of heart for a guy who was 100% against the Big East adding UCF back in the day to think FAU would be a better add. I mean hey that's awesome if ESPN would value all those schools the same as the MWC schools, the AAC doesn't have to worry about being raided and losing value!!!

I don't know what ESPN specifically values more. I'm saying that in a general brand value sense, I don't see CSU and AFA as being any more valuable than App State and UAB.

As for my opinion about UCF, that was 10 years ago, so sure, changes of heart can happen in that time. But IIRC, I opposed UCF for the Big East primarily because they are rivals of USF, a dynamic that doesn't exist with any of these schools.

To me, CSU and AFA to the AAC is not a win for us, it's treading water, and it puts more emphasis on the west, and I already don't like how far west we already are.

IMO, for Aresco to earn his pay on this, he needs to haul in Boise and SDSU. They are worth heading far west for.

Well, Tulsa, SMU, Tulane and Memphis are all Central Time Zone teams (plus Wichita) vs only Temple, ECU and South Florida in the Eastern Time Zone. Navy has a voice, and plenty of reasons to be happy about bringing in Air Force.

It is treading water, but that's life when you're backfilling.

And I think Colorado State is getting a lot of mileage out of the fact that they're a flagship-and-landgrant that's not a complete dumpster fire of an FBS program (like UConn or UMass).

The difference on the field or in TV audiences between Colorado State and anyone in CUSA or the Sun Belt or MAC is trivial. The difference between "(Regional) State" and "Statename State", or "Statename State" and "Statename-Branch Campus", is pretty substantial.

For CSU, wouldn't AAC to Big XII be a more attainable move than MWC to Big XII?

Pretty sure Boise State getting left at the altar a few weeks ago resonated down to Fort Collins.

This could be a stepping stone to where CSU hopes to end up in the next 5-10 years.

(09-28-2021 01:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

Is this saying there's a desire to add more than 2 from the MWC or more than 2 in general?

If it's the former (the second tweet makes me think it is), then that sounds like they'll want a full western wing of 4 in order to make the move. Without SDSU and Boise going along, are there 2 others that would reasonably make the switch to the AAC?

(09-28-2021 02:41 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 01:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

Is this saying there's a desire to add more than 2 from the MWC or more than 2 in general?

If it's the former (the second tweet makes me think it is), then that sounds like they'll want a full western wing of 4 in order to make the move. Without SDSU and Boise going along, are there 2 others that would reasonably make the switch to the AAC?

More than likely two back in the east (really southwest/east). The original top two from MWC was Boise and SDSU and they both poo poo'ed, so they turned towards their back up two-AF and CSU. I think if their were any other MWC teams AAC had their eyes on we would already have heard some scuttle. Instead, it seems the most consistent reports zero in on UAB, FAU and UTSA from CUSA.

(09-28-2021 02:13 PM)Bull Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:51 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:41 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:36 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:33 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  To me why not go for Air Force and UAB only, I am not getting why two other team are a must. 10 seems more money and I don't see the CSU and another CUSA team helping with the espn contract.

Nothing says upgrade like a perennial 300+ RPI basketball team

Nothing says AAC derangement syndrome like insisting the AAC could never add any MWC teams and then when they can switching the argument to 1 of them being awful at hoops. Don't worry the MWC still has multiple recent 300+ RPI teams in SJSU and Wyoming to continue pulling up the rear (and not that I expect them to remain this bad but New Mexico says hi with a 302 NET and 307 RPI last year).

I will believe it when I see it. If they do it, stupid on their part and they will regret it.

SJSU, UNM and Wyoming have had good teams in the recent past - AFA, because of the recruiting limitations (height) is always bad.

As far as AAC derangement, lol. AAC is a fine conference - one of the top two G5. But the only AAC Derangement is those that use P6/G4.

You can draw the 'P' line wherever you want... but you can't ignore all the NY bowls won by the AAC, the nice $$ upgrade by the AAC, great AAC OOC record against P5 teams (considering their advantage) and the simple fact that almost all the 'P' additions come out of the AAC. There is a reason for all that. The AAC did great. Calling it 'P' or not is just semantics. Fans will call it P6, everyone else will not. Who cares? Show me where the MWC/cUSA/MAC/SBC even came close...

In the end does not matter... The AAC is the real tweener, and all the P5 upgrades will continue to decimate it... but it will keep calling up the best of the below and always remain just below the P conferences. It's a funnel. But in the meantime, the exposure and cash are there to complete. Bagging P5 pelts and proving that on the field there is little separation is... fun.

The AAC has always been closer to the MWC in every metric than any of the real P5. And that is not changing.