It will never happen. It is a downgrade for both Colorado schools.

(09-28-2021 11:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:02 AM)RamblinRedWolf Wrote:  still wild; not trying to discredit either programs but it seems like such a rash/random grab ("like hey we can't get boise and SDSU, lets go wiiiiittttthhhhh.....CSU and AF-Why not?"

Yes, I said I would bow down to Aresco if he was able to get Boise and SDSU - and I will.

But AFA and Colorado State seem like leftovers by comparison.

Would much rather the AAC go east, with schools like App State/Marshall and Georgia State/UAB. Even FAU.

But maybe the move to Dallas HQ has the conference leaders addled by more western schools.

Or maybe espn has said no poaching our product…

This is a podcast for sports bettors and McMurphy just tosses this out in the midst of a sequence where he’s being asked in rapid-fire sequence to predict the results of upcoming games. At the 11:58 mark the host slips in “What’s the next move in conference realignment?” and McMurphy immediately responds “Air Force and Colorado State to the American, likely next week.” The host comments “That’s breaking news” and then jumps to the next question.

I’m not sure how much weight to put on this given the context. McMurphy is fielding the questions quickly based on the first thing that comes into his head, knowing that no one is going to circle back later and hold him accountable for the answers. He may have responded with the AFA and CSU prediction because he’s fresh off of reading it in The Athletic just like the rest of us. The only hint that this is anything more is the conviction in McMurphy’s voice, but the tone of his answer is the same casually confident tone of all of his answers.

(09-28-2021 11:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:02 AM)RamblinRedWolf Wrote:  still wild; not trying to discredit either programs but it seems like such a rash/random grab ("like hey we can't get boise and SDSU, lets go wiiiiittttthhhhh.....CSU and AF-Why not?"

Yes, I said I would bow down to Aresco if he was able to get Boise and SDSU - and I will.

But AFA and Colorado State seem like leftovers by comparison.

Would much rather the AAC go east, with schools like App State/Marshall and Georgia State/UAB. Even FAU.

But maybe the move to Dallas HQ has the conference leaders addled by more western schools.

If AFA and CSU are "leftovers" then what am I to call that collection of schools you listed? There's a reason the AAC makes 6-7 million a year, the MWC 4-5 depending on the split, and the leagues those schools reside in 1 million or less per year.

Im hoping #12 is FAU

That makes the east a lot cleaner with
EAST: FAU-USF, Temple-ECU, Memphis-UAB
WEST: Colorado St-Air Force, Tulsa-Wichita, SMU-Tulane

if you take UTSA instead of FAU, Tulane has to go east

I've been hearing the exact same thing for about a week. This is as close to a done deal as you can get without being a done deal. Early next week is when I'd expect an announcement, re: CSU/AF

(09-28-2021 12:06 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  I've been hearing the exact same thing for about a week. This is as close to a done deal as you can get without being a done deal. Early next week is when I'd expect an announcement, re: CSU/AF

Thanks for sharing that Matt.

If the AAC pulls this off and isn’t able to get Boise State, SDSU, or Army, I think they should hold off if they can’t get two more MW schools (e.g. UNLV and Fresno State). C-USA schools really don’t move the needle nationally.

(09-28-2021 12:06 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  I've been hearing the exact same thing for about a week. This is as close to a done deal as you can get without being a done deal. Early next week is when I'd expect an announcement, re: CSU/AF

wow! Again no disrespect to the Rams and Falcons faithful, but still crazy to see Aresco/American so gung ho on MWC teams

(09-28-2021 11:58 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:02 AM)RamblinRedWolf Wrote:  still wild; not trying to discredit either programs but it seems like such a rash/random grab ("like hey we can't get boise and SDSU, lets go wiiiiittttthhhhh.....CSU and AF-Why not?"

Yes, I said I would bow down to Aresco if he was able to get Boise and SDSU - and I will.

But AFA and Colorado State seem like leftovers by comparison.

Would much rather the AAC go east, with schools like App State/Marshall and Georgia State/UAB. Even FAU.

But maybe the move to Dallas HQ has the conference leaders addled by more western schools.

Or maybe espn has said no poaching our product…

There's a reason the MWC and CUSA are getting strip-mined by ESPN products.

(09-28-2021 12:09 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:06 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  I've been hearing the exact same thing for about a week. This is as close to a done deal as you can get without being a done deal. Early next week is when I'd expect an announcement, re: CSU/AF

Thanks for sharing that Matt.

I’m hearing Hawaii will probably become a full MWC member

(09-28-2021 12:06 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  I've been hearing the exact same thing for about a week. This is as close to a done deal as you can get without being a done deal. Early next week is when I'd expect an announcement, re: CSU/AF

What is left of the AAC is not good as their best schools are gone, and what is left are worst than MWC.

(09-28-2021 12:02 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 11:02 AM)RamblinRedWolf Wrote:  still wild; not trying to discredit either programs but it seems like such a rash/random grab ("like hey we can't get boise and SDSU, lets go wiiiiittttthhhhh.....CSU and AF-Why not?"

Yes, I said I would bow down to Aresco if he was able to get Boise and SDSU - and I will.

But AFA and Colorado State seem like leftovers by comparison.

Would much rather the AAC go east, with schools like App State/Marshall and Georgia State/UAB. Even FAU.

But maybe the move to Dallas HQ has the conference leaders addled by more western schools.

If AFA and CSU are "leftovers" then what am I to call that collection of schools you listed? There's a reason the AAC makes 6-7 million a year, the MWC 4-5 depending on the split, and the leagues those schools reside in 1 million or less per year.

Eh, conferences and school brands are correlated but not necessa
rily all that much.

I'm not sure Colorado State and Air Force are as valuable as App State and UAB. I would take the latter over the former. Also, I'm a fan of cultural fit. IMO, the eastern schools are closer fit than those mountain schools.

IMO, Colorado State and AFA only make sense to Tulsa and SMU. For the rest of us, no.

I fear that the AAC is now fighting the wrong battle, vs the MWC. A battle to crush the MWC made sense before TX and OU left the Big 12. Now, with the L12 firmly ensconced as the "tweener" league the AAC was trying to be, battling the MW is just not relevant, IMO. Sure, you take Boise and SDSU if you can, because those are obvious very high value G5 schools. But nobody else from out there.

All I know is nobody in Colorado thinks it's a good move for Colorado State, that losing their rivalry with Wyoming (nobody cares much about Air Force) and contact with alumni in California and other western states is going to really hurt the program, as will having to switch the recruiting territory (that takes time, money, people, effort and psychological changes). My only guess is the football coach and AD are easterners and driving it. I think it's going to be received not as some great thing but as a "I hope this the right move" neutrality by alumni.

But I guess it's going to happen.

I continue to have to keep posting in response to the naysayers (and, as noted, I will have to see the AFA and CSU move to the AAC to believe it, so I'm a bit skeptical too). To those who are critical of Air Force and Colorado State for considering this and/or are critical of the AAC for being a "lesser league" not worth a MWC member joining, ponder this:

IF CSU and AFA leave the MWC for the AAC it will be a long-term play, one driven by the thinking that the AAC in, say, five to 10 years will be a much stronger league than the MWC. The AAC could look different in 10 years, perhaps also having adding Boise (if it does not go the Big 12) and San Diego State.

Many of the posters who feel changing leagues would be detrimental to Air Force and Colorado State seem to think Air Force and Colorado State (as I interpret their posts) see the AAC as currently configured as the lure. It is not. AFA and CSU — if these media reports are true (and we have Matt Brown, Dennis Dodd and Brett McMurphy reporting it) — are thinking big picture. The lure is the future configuration of the AAC.

Aresco seemingly is attempting to build a "best of the rest" conference. To do so, he needs to add some universities with well-established athletics and academics. CSU and AFA would offer that.

(09-28-2021 12:29 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  All I know is nobody in Colorado thinks it's a good move for Colorado State, that losing their rivalry with Wyoming (nobody cares much about Air Force) and contact with alumni in California and other western states is going to really hurt the program, as will having to switch the recruiting territory (that takes time, money, people, effort and psychological changes). My only guess is the football coach and AD are easterners and driving it. I think it's going to be received not as some great thing but as a "I hope this the right move" neutrality by alumni.

But I guess it's going to happen.

That makes sense to me. I've been to Fort Collins, Colorado. That is *western* country. Rocky Mountain country. It's a land of cowboys and Buffalo and Bighorn Sheep and Mountain Lions. Beautiful country. But "mountain" and "western". Way to the north of the state, almost in Wyoming.

Has nothing to do with the east or southeast, where most of the AAC is located.

If I were a CSU fan, I would have zero interest in seeing games vs USF, ECU, Temple, Tulane, Memphis, Navy, etc. Just not our people.

(09-28-2021 12:19 PM)1IvyDog Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:09 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:06 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  I've been hearing the exact same thing for about a week. This is as close to a done deal as you can get without being a done deal. Early next week is when I'd expect an announcement, re: CSU/AF

Thanks for sharing that Matt.

I’m hearing Hawaii will probably become a full MWC member

I’ve heard nothing to that effect but that doesn’t prove or disprove anything since I have no connections in the UH athletics office.

As I’ve commented elsewhere, this wouldn’t surprise me as the travel wouldn’t be as burdensome for UH with AFA and CSU out of the conference (only one trip per year over the Rockies) and the move would benefit us in basketball. And from the MWC’s perspective, if the conference decides to stay at 10 in football it will need to add at least one new basketball member and there aren’t a lot of better options in the west if Gonzaga isn’t interested.

(09-28-2021 11:23 AM)Wedge Wrote:  ... AFA would get to be in the same conference as Navy. Maybe they feel like that would raise their profile, given that AFA has always been the third wheel in the rivalry between service academies.

Especially if Air Force is FB-only and has a place for their Olympic Sports where some may be more competitive than in the MWC. With Denver and UNO in the Summit, it'd be similar travel to the MWC for Air Force, and of course they could still play CSU and Wyoming out of conference in team sports.

On a quick look in the Wikipedia machine, the Falcons' team sports that are not sponsored by the Summit are already in their own conferences.

For the American, it would be the special brand value of the Academies, where the media networks don't disrespect them in the way they do other schools with similar athletic accomplishments, because they don't want to get tarred with "not supporting America's armed forces". CSU would be because it is certainly a respectable enough school get over any academic hurdle that the AAC might have, and then the Front Range rival that Air Force would require to come, and then the 8th full member that the AAC requires to hold onto its FBS status. They have the maximum of 2025 to have that, due to the bylaw grace period, but not having it sorted out raised questions about their own status.

So an AFA/CSU add (and it is unambiguously in that order) sets the AAC into a position where they don't have to rush adding another two.

Also, adding an Academy can take more time than adding some other schools, since Academies are more resistant to breaching their contracts, so if you are going to do it, you want to get the ball rolling promptly.

One speculation is also whether AFA/CSU is entirely independent of trying to woo Army, or whether the idea is to get it ready to go ahead and then talking to Army to see if it shifts their position. If CSU moving was riding on first AFA saying yes, and second on Army then saying yes, it would be prudent to be very tight lipped about leaking it until everything is set to go.

(09-28-2021 12:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:29 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  All I know is nobody in Colorado thinks it's a good move for Colorado State, that losing their rivalry with Wyoming (nobody cares much about Air Force) and contact with alumni in California and other western states is going to really hurt the program, as will having to switch the recruiting territory (that takes time, money, people, effort and psychological changes). My only guess is the football coach and AD are easterners and driving it. I think it's going to be received not as some great thing but as a "I hope this the right move" neutrality by alumni.

But I guess it's going to happen.

That makes sense to me. I've been to Fort Collins, Colorado. That is *western* country. Rocky Mountain country. It's a land of cowboys and Buffalo and Bighorn Sheep. Beautiful country. But "mountain" and "western".

Has nothing to do with the east or southeast, where most of the AAC is located.

If I were a CSU fan, I would have zero interest in seeing games vs USF, ECU, Temple, Tulane, Memphis, Navy, etc. Just not our people.

I understand the weirdness of the teams themselves but moving "east" and still getting Air Force means more markets, more TV in better time slots, etc. even if the money is a wash.

Also, travel within their division might be slightly easier,.

Also, also, Colorado State fits the P5 wannabe culture of the AAC. And I don't mean anything negative by that.

It's not a no brainer but it makes sense to me.

(09-28-2021 12:38 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 12:29 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  All I know is nobody in Colorado thinks it's a good move for Colorado State, that losing their rivalry with Wyoming (nobody cares much about Air Force) and contact with alumni in California and other western states is going to really hurt the program, as will having to switch the recruiting territory (that takes time, money, people, effort and psychological changes). My only guess is the football coach and AD are easterners and driving it. I think it's going to be received not as some great thing but as a "I hope this the right move" neutrality by alumni.

But I guess it's going to happen.

That makes sense to me. I've been to Fort Collins, Colorado. That is *western* country. Rocky Mountain country. It's a land of cowboys and Buffalo and Bighorn Sheep. Beautiful country. But "mountain" and "western".

Has nothing to do with the east or southeast, where most of the AAC is located.

If I were a CSU fan, I would have zero interest in seeing games vs USF, ECU, Temple, Tulane, Memphis, Navy, etc. Just not our people.

I understand the weirdness of the teams themselves but moving "east" and still getting Air Force means more markets, more TV in better time slots, etc. even if the money is a wash.

Also, travel within their division might be slightly easier,.

Also, also, Colorado State fits the P5 wannabe culture of the AAC. And I don't mean anything negative by that.

It's not a no brainer but it makes sense to me.

IMO, stuff like TV and markets matter when there is big money involved. I mean sure, if the SEC calls, if you are Colorado State you join because the advantages just overwhelm the cultural concerns.

But a move to the AAC, especially an AAC without the three leaving schools, is a lateral move, IMO. And you move totally outside your cultural zone to do it. To me, there is just nothing about the markets and TV that compensates adequately for that. I would feat that attendance would fall, because who at CSU wants to see them play Temple? Or ECU? Or USF? Or Tulsa? Or Memphis? Not many, IMO.

If I was running those schools, I wouldn't do it. Not that anyone at those schools is asking me, LOL.