(08-31-2021 01:12 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  I'm thinking they find a way out of the B12 after this season and at most stay for the '22 season. The rich always find a way to get what they want.

Normally I'd say yes but they might be alright pushing it off a bit to save on the GOR fee and the basic fact the playoff expansion is delayed.

The definitely want to be on board in the SEC for the start of expanded playoff.

(08-30-2021 11:09 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Maybe the big 12 should work with ESPN

1) release Texas and OU next year and waive buyout
2) add BYU and Colorado state next season since the aac schools have 27 months notice
3) have ESPN pay big 12 same rate they get now for 2025-2030 season in new 5 year deal
4) expand 2-4 for 2030 season after contract is up

Here's what I would do:

1.) have ESPN pay big 12 same rate they get now for 2025-2030 season in new 5 year deal.
2.) Release Texas and OU next year and waive buyout.
3.) Add BYU and Cincy, because they fill two of the Big 12's biggest needs, ASAP.
4.)Add Memphis and Houston or SMU, wait for new tv contract before adding anyone else.

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Memphis, Houston and SMU do not have the tv viewership like UCF and Boise State.

(08-31-2021 10:23 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:38 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 01:19 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  

(08-31-2021 12:47 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 11:26 PM)Jared7 Wrote:  ... The Big 12 will withhold, per the bylaws, roughly $40 million per year until the date of actual withdrawal. If it's less than 4 years, it'll be withholdings for howsoever many years they stay plus a GOR component, which, although negotiable, could well be more than the specified Buyout Amounts. ...

Note that the GOR component is negotiable because it only happens if the Big12 voluntarily release the rights, and you don't get someone to do something like that for free.

If the SEC is willing to take Texas and Oklahoma without their rights, which the SEC's telecast partner would have to consent to, then there would not necessarily have to be a GOR component, even though, pragmatically, in that circumstance there is a range of values for the negotiated GOR component which makes it in everyone's interests to agree. So consenting to allow them to go without their rights would really pave the way to their leaving with their rights.

That's accurate. And the range of values starts at a figure above zero and goes up to whatever SEC member schools will earn in their new contract ($60-75 million projected). If it's 1 year. So that'd mean $120 million (each) in Buyout Amounts for 3 years plus a negotiated GOR component for one year somewhere between $1 million or so and $75 million. If it's 50:50, that would be somewhere around half of whatever the new SEC ESPN deal pays SEC schools. But it could vary one way or the other depending on when the deal is struck and who has the negotiating leverage at the time.

Also if the SEC offers a partial distribution for coming in without anything but tier 3 rights, the top end drops to the increment between the partial and the full distribution. If the partial share was set at a third of a full share, a 50:50 split of the bargaining range drops down to a third of a full share.

Given that the transition from CBS to ABC starts in 2024, it seems unlikely that OK and TX won't be in the SEC at least one year early.

Which, if the projections of $60-75 million are accurate, would mean about $20-25 million as 1/3rd of a full share. Which would mean a grand total of 3 years' worth of Buyout Amounts ($120 million each) + $20-25 million each equaling $140-145 million each. Which is in the ballpark of estimates. But my question then is why would the Big 12 ever agree to that when, if they just say No, No, No, No to any proposal that they relinquish their GOR rights and do nothing other than wait the full 4 years, they'd receive roughly $160 million (each). Sure, getting beyond this and avoiding litigation and planning for the future is a motivating factor, but is it worth $15-20 million?

My guess is that the projections are wrong and the SEC conference payout could well be what JR was projecting a few months ago - somewhere in the $90-100 million range for per school distributions, which would mean roughly $60-67 million in media money. Or more. $80 million in media dollars?? Why else would UT have bolted? Their old calculation - based on the projected $20 million the LHN will bring (roughly $16 million now and going up) was that as long as Big 12 money was within $20 million of P2 money, they'd stay (and still be the highest revenue school). But that changed. My guess is that it did because ESPN was throwing around huge enough figures to make staying in the Big12 look unprofitable and not keeping up with the Joneses. And a gigantic media splash announcing the new record deal, that will dwarf even the Big 10. And I can see why the Big 12 would want to wait and see if that's accurate and by how much.

In my view, a deal is assured if the higher figure allows the Big 12 to made whole. And my definition of that phrase not only means full payout under the Telecast Agreements (which is ESPN's and UT's current meaning) but also full payout of the Buyout Amounts (which certainly isn't UT's current definition). That is, at least $160 million and an inducement beyond that. And 1/3rd of $60-75 million doesn't do that. Only 1/3rd of $120 million does that. Sure, a deal with a close shave off that is possible just to move on, but it can't be a deep shave. And that's why I'm not all that optimistic about an assured deal even for just 1 year. It's possible because everything is negotiable, but not for sure.

What makes the Big 12 whole is making the contractual amounts through 2025, which Bowlsby says is now about $28 million a year. Everything else is gravy. They have done nothing to earn anything beyond that (and many would say they haven't earned the contract through 2025).

(08-31-2021 02:34 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Memphis, Houston and SMU do not have the tv viewership like UCF and Boise State.

They have almost as much as Arkansas Tech.

(08-31-2021 02:34 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Memphis, Houston and SMU do not have the tv viewership like UCF and Boise State.

Boise State's viewership really isn't impressive compared to the AAC - middle of the pack.
Here are 2019 and 2018 numbers that I pulled together last Christmas to put down this myth at the time:

2019 Viewers - Regular season/CCG games - no bowls included - Boise and AAC
Cincinnati 12.02 million
Memphis 11.666 million
Houston 11.009 million
Navy 10.433 million
UCF 9.432 million
Boise St 6.899 million
SMU 4.304 million
USF 3.991 million
Navy (w/o A-N) 2.713 million
Tulsa 2.506 million
Temple 1.673 million
UConn 1.064 million
ECU 0.374 million
Tulane 0

2019 Avg Viewers per rated game - Regular season/CCG games - no bowls included - Boise and AAC
Navy 2.086 million
Cincinnati 1.717 million
Memphis 1.458 million
Houston 1.376 million
USF 1.330 million
SMU 1.076 million
UCF 1.048 million
Temple 0.837 million
Boise St 0.766 million
Navy (w/o A-N) 0.678 million
Tulsa 0.627 million
UConn 0.532 million
ECU 0.374 million
Tulane 0

I started the 2018 work, so rather than let it go to waste, I'll post the incomplete data I've crunched:

2018 viewers - regular season and CCGs, no bowls - Boise and some AAC teams:
UCF - 15.564 million viewers
Navy - 10.882 million
Memphis - 8.803 million
Houston - 7.287 million
Boise State - 7.449 million
Cincinnati - 6.980 million
Navy without Army Navy - 2.832 million
SMU - 1.699 million

Here's another guy's look averaging 2015-2019 viewers:
https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach...c03c689e50
Houston #50, UCF #58, Memphis #59, Boise #62, Cincinnati #64, USF, #66, SMU #73. Navy and Army not listed but would be #37 and #42.

(08-31-2021 03:53 PM)bullet Wrote:  What makes the Big 12 whole is making the contractual amounts through 2025, which Bowlsby says is now about $28 million a year. Everything else is gravy. They have done nothing to earn anything beyond that (and many would say they haven't earned the contract through 2025).

I agree that all contractual amounts being paid would make the Big 12 whole. That includes the amounts in the Telecast contracts and the bylaws. Which are $28 million per school per year in media money and $160 ($40 million per year) from each of OU and UT. Anything beyond that would be gravy and would certainly be negotiable for a possible GOR component if UT/OU attempt to leave early.

So, that was a fking lie