(08-30-2021 11:09 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Maybe the big 12 should work with ESPN

1) release Texas and OU next year and waive buyout
2) add BYU and Colorado state next season since the aac schools have 27 months notice
3) have ESPN pay big 12 same rate they get now for 2025-2030 season in new 5 year deal
4) expand 2-4 for 2030 season after contract is up

Maybe not. On (1), UT and OU currently owe at least $160 million each (an average of $40 million per year each) - giving up that for $14 million per year would be stupid. On (2) - BYU is a top candidate, but not until 2025; CSU is a candidate, but not in the top tier currently. (3) sounds good but pales in comparison to (1). (4) would dilute conference revenues.

If ESPN wants to facilitate an early exit by UT/OU, they're going to have to come up with more money than what you suggest. Expansion may possibly be emminent, but it isn't imminent.

I’d like to point out that since the advent of the 27 month notice period for leaving the old Big East/AAC no one has actually given 27 months notice.

I can see the Big 12 agreeing to let OUT leave early for a TV commitment that allows for expansion and much better revenues than they would get otherwise.

(08-30-2021 12:12 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I can see the Big 12 agreeing to let OUT leave early for a TV commitment that allows for expansion and much better revenues than they would get otherwise.

Its going to be interesting because this is the first time we've seen conference movement with a GOR in place.

(08-30-2021 09:32 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Nothing will happen until Texas and Oklahoma announce an earlier departure date.

This is a game of chicken.

They might well invite two schools (or four) to join in 2025. And then adjust the timeline as needed.

(08-30-2021 11:27 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 11:21 AM)Claw Wrote:  Why make a move with NIL just starting and an NCAA Constitution revision around the corner?

They will wait and see. They aren't high rollers in the Big XII leadership.

I wouldn't put anything past the AAC however.

Good point. I'd add that having a better idea of the exact structure of the next CFP would also be good information to know prior to expanding.

Well a bigger issue is TV contracts. Clearly, nobody will seriously talk to them until the Big 10 deal is done. The Big 10 contract expires in 22 months. They probably are just now starting to talk about it.

My guess is that Big 12 expansion won't happen as quickly as many people will want, but it certainly won't be a "No one is moving until 2025" situation, either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That 2025 date has to be used publicly by everyone involved (whether the Big 12 or UT/OU) because of their existing contracts, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that those schools will be lame ducks for more than one season in practicality.

I tend to think that expansion will happen on the faster side (AKA it won't happen next week, but they'll get it done far before the timeframe of what they're stating publicly). Either you think BYU, Cincinnati and/or other candidates are the right schools for the long-term or you don't. If they're the right schools, then you want to get them into the league as soon as you realistically can so that they can start integrating them in.

(08-30-2021 09:43 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 09:32 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Nothing will happen until Texas and Oklahoma announce an earlier departure date.

This is a game of chicken.

This.

Time is on the side of the L8.

They can't make any "proactive" moves because every single Big 12 member will leave if invited by the ACC, Big 10, PAC, or SEC.

They like the status quo, and they are correct to sit tight unless offered a ridiculous sum of money to change it.

Why do people keep bringing this up? It's obvious that new schools coming in can be on terms where they are ineligible from any early exit fees from OU/UT. Plus, AAC schools require a 27 month notice. If anything, they are checking on the legality of poaching schools from the AAC without ESPN throwing a hissy fit.

(08-30-2021 11:09 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Maybe the big 12 should work with ESPN

1) release Texas and OU next year and waive buyout
2) add BYU and Colorado state next season since the aac schools have 27 months notice
3) have ESPN pay big 12 same rate they get now for 2025-2030 season in new 5 year deal
4) expand 2-4 for 2030 season after contract is up

This would be a best case scenario for the Big XII and college football. Once the lawyers are done and a settlement is reached the L8 schools arent going to see that 140 Million OU and Texas would owe for leaving early. Take the deal and enjoy stability and playoff access.

(08-30-2021 12:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My guess is that Big 12 expansion won't happen as quickly as many people will want, but it certainly won't be a "No one is moving until 2025" situation, either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That 2025 date has to be used publicly by everyone involved (whether the Big 12 or UT/OU) because of their existing contracts, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that those schools will be lame ducks for more than one season in practicality.

I tend to think that expansion will happen on the faster side (AKA it won't happen next week, but they'll get it done far before the timeframe of what they're stating publicly). Either you think BYU, Cincinnati and/or other candidates are the right schools for the long-term or you don't. If they're the right schools, then you want to get them into the league as soon as you realistically can so that they can start integrating them in.

Pretty much. I am sure Texas/OU are working behind closed doors to negotiate an early exit. I don't think they remainder of the Big 12 want this circus to go on for 5 seasons either. You know other programs are going to use it against them in recruiting if things remain cloudy like they are now.

(08-30-2021 12:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 11:27 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 11:21 AM)Claw Wrote:  Why make a move with NIL just starting and an NCAA Constitution revision around the corner?

They will wait and see. They aren't high rollers in the Big XII leadership.

I wouldn't put anything past the AAC however.

Good point. I'd add that having a better idea of the exact structure of the next CFP would also be good information to know prior to expanding.

Well a bigger issue is TV contracts. Clearly, nobody will seriously talk to them until the Big 10 deal is done. The Big 10 contract expires in 22 months. They probably are just now starting to talk about it.

Ehhh. Their contract will be fine. It will still be a substantial deal---but small compared to the SEC, Big10, or Pac12. Im guessing the Big12 will still command 150 to 200 million a year or so. The rebuilt Big12 will still be a very nice media property with lots of million+ viewer games---and FOX/ESPN will still need to fill all those broadcast windows the Big12 and the top AAC properties currently fill for those networks.

(08-30-2021 01:05 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 12:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My guess is that Big 12 expansion won't happen as quickly as many people will want, but it certainly won't be a "No one is moving until 2025" situation, either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That 2025 date has to be used publicly by everyone involved (whether the Big 12 or UT/OU) because of their existing contracts, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that those schools will be lame ducks for more than one season in practicality.

I tend to think that expansion will happen on the faster side (AKA it won't happen next week, but they'll get it done far before the timeframe of what they're stating publicly). Either you think BYU, Cincinnati and/or other candidates are the right schools for the long-term or you don't. If they're the right schools, then you want to get them into the league as soon as you realistically can so that they can start integrating them in.

Pretty much. I am sure Texas/OU are working behind closed doors to negotiate an early exit. I don't think they remainder of the Big 12 want this circus to go on for 5 seasons either. You know other programs are going to use it against them in recruiting if things remain cloudy like they are now.

Im sure they are---I just dont know how that happens without a tremendous amount of money exchanging hands. This is not a situation where the damages are abstract opinion or estimate. We have a really good idea what it is. If ESPN wants to reduce the B12 TV deal 50% for the remaining years that dont feature OU/UT---then the damages are 125 million times the number of years UT/OU would like to slice off the end of the GOR. If thats 3 years---then its 375 million---and frankly---the Big12 has little reason to negotiate much. By the way---thats ON TOP of the 140 million combined exit fees OU/UT would owe. The only way they get out at a substantially reduced rate is if ESPN promises to honor the face amount for the rest of the current deal (and UT/OU pay the required 70 million EACH in exit fees).

(08-30-2021 12:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My guess is that Big 12 expansion won't happen as quickly as many people will want, but it certainly won't be a "No one is moving until 2025" situation, either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That 2025 date has to be used publicly by everyone involved (whether the Big 12 or UT/OU) because of their existing contracts, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that those schools will be lame ducks for more than one season in practicality.

I tend to think that expansion will happen on the faster side (AKA it won't happen next week, but they'll get it done far before the timeframe of what they're stating publicly). Either you think BYU, Cincinnati and/or other candidates are the right schools for the long-term or you don't. If they're the right schools, then you want to get them into the league as soon as you realistically can so that they can start integrating them in.

Well, I certainly agree that it'll likely be somewhere in the middle and that it will be settled eventually. But the length of the lame duck period is definitely indeterminate as of now and could well extend beyond merely 1 year. The by-laws specified 2 years worth of revenues as the anticipated period - $80 million each for the Buyout Amount- so that is the essential floor for the money and probably the time period as well. If it's going to be 2022, decisions need to be made fairly quickly which means that settlement negotiations need to start soon. And that'll mean GOR money as well, and I see no indication as yet that either UT, OU or ESPN are ready to pony up that kind of money. If they want to facilitate an early exit, inducements to the Big 12 are necessary. And so far, only the Big 12 and its schools are talking about that. ESPN has backed off the (alleged) "let's destroy the Big 12" attitude, but that's about it. They'll need to go much further if they want a settlement.

I think expansion will happen end of calendar year or early next. They don't want this spilling into recruiting season. I cannot for the life on me see UT and OU staying through the 2024-25 season. Unless they come out and say, "We are staying with the Big 12 through 24' or perhaps Spring 25'"... I just can't buy that. Meaning, AAC schools or BY would have to come in by Fall 24'. Meaning expansion needs to be sealed and delivered by Spring 22' given the 27 month grace period for UC and Houston.

UT and OU need to work out a settlement. I can see them eating 10-15 million or so to begin SEC play a year sooner.

(08-30-2021 01:24 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UT and OU need to work out a settlement. I can see them eating 10-15 million or so to begin SEC play a year sooner.

If that's the case, then it'll be $120 million each (3 years of withheld revenues) + the $10-15 million you suggest, and the settlement will be $130-135 million each. That's in the ballpark of the estimates posters here have made, but still seems a bit low to me. In my view, neither UT, OU nor ESPN are anywhere close to those numbers as yet. Hence the delay.

(08-30-2021 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 12:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 11:27 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 11:21 AM)Claw Wrote:  Why make a move with NIL just starting and an NCAA Constitution revision around the corner?

They will wait and see. They aren't high rollers in the Big XII leadership.

I wouldn't put anything past the AAC however.

Good point. I'd add that having a better idea of the exact structure of the next CFP would also be good information to know prior to expanding.

Well a bigger issue is TV contracts. Clearly, nobody will seriously talk to them until the Big 10 deal is done. The Big 10 contract expires in 22 months. They probably are just now starting to talk about it.

Ehhh. Their contract will be fine. It will still be a substantial deal---but small compared to the SEC, Big10, or Pac12. Im guessing the Big12 will still command 150 to 200 million a year or so. The rebuilt Big12 will still be a very nice media property with lots of million+ viewer games---and FOX/ESPN will still need to fill all those broadcast windows the Big12 and the top AAC properties currently fill for those networks.

My point was that it will be hard to decide on 10 or 12 and which ones, when the networks won't negotiate with you. I could see their media consultants giving them a good idea on whether #9 and #10 are acceptable, but beyond that, they need to talk to the guys with the checkbooks.

(08-30-2021 01:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 01:05 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 12:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My guess is that Big 12 expansion won't happen as quickly as many people will want, but it certainly won't be a "No one is moving until 2025" situation, either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That 2025 date has to be used publicly by everyone involved (whether the Big 12 or UT/OU) because of their existing contracts, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that those schools will be lame ducks for more than one season in practicality.

I tend to think that expansion will happen on the faster side (AKA it won't happen next week, but they'll get it done far before the timeframe of what they're stating publicly). Either you think BYU, Cincinnati and/or other candidates are the right schools for the long-term or you don't. If they're the right schools, then you want to get them into the league as soon as you realistically can so that they can start integrating them in.

Pretty much. I am sure Texas/OU are working behind closed doors to negotiate an early exit. I don't think they remainder of the Big 12 want this circus to go on for 5 seasons either. You know other programs are going to use it against them in recruiting if things remain cloudy like they are now.

Im sure they are---I just dont know how that happens without a tremendous amount of money exchanging hands. This is not a situation where the damages are abstract opinion or estimate. We have a really good idea what it is. If ESPN wants to reduce the B12 TV deal 50% for the remaining years that dont feature OU/UT---then the damages are 125 million times the number of years UT/OU would like to slice off the end of the GOR. If thats 3 years---then its 375 million---and frankly---the Big12 has little reason to negotiate much. By the way---thats ON TOP of the 140 million combined exit fees OU/UT would owe. The only way they get out at a substantially reduced rate is if ESPN promises to honor the face amount for the rest of the current deal (and UT/OU pay the required 70 million EACH in exit fees).

The Big 12 will likely end up getting the full contracted TV money through spring 2025, one way or another. And then whatever amount UT and OU pay in addition to that will be negotiated and paid out over a period of several years.

(08-30-2021 01:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 01:05 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 12:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My guess is that Big 12 expansion won't happen as quickly as many people will want, but it certainly won't be a "No one is moving until 2025" situation, either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That 2025 date has to be used publicly by everyone involved (whether the Big 12 or UT/OU) because of their existing contracts, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that those schools will be lame ducks for more than one season in practicality.

I tend to think that expansion will happen on the faster side (AKA it won't happen next week, but they'll get it done far before the timeframe of what they're stating publicly). Either you think BYU, Cincinnati and/or other candidates are the right schools for the long-term or you don't. If they're the right schools, then you want to get them into the league as soon as you realistically can so that they can start integrating them in.

Pretty much. I am sure Texas/OU are working behind closed doors to negotiate an early exit. I don't think they remainder of the Big 12 want this circus to go on for 5 seasons either. You know other programs are going to use it against them in recruiting if things remain cloudy like they are now.

Im sure they are---I just dont know how that happens without a tremendous amount of money exchanging hands. This is not a situation where the damages are abstract opinion or estimate. We have a really good idea what it is. If ESPN wants to reduce the B12 TV deal 50% for the remaining years that dont feature OU/UT---then the damages are 125 million times the number of years UT/OU would like to slice off the end of the GOR. If thats 3 years---then its 375 million---and frankly---the Big12 has little reason to negotiate much. By the way---thats ON TOP of the 140 million combined exit fees OU/UT would owe. The only way they get out at a substantially reduced rate is if ESPN promises to honor the face amount for the rest of the current deal (and UT/OU pay the required 70 million EACH in exit fees).

I do think the Big 12 will get their TV contract money one way or the other. If its a $14 million cut as Bowlsby said, 8X14=$112 million a year. Beyond that, I don't know how much they get, or, how they get it-payout, continued TV contract, game deals, etc. OU and UT might get out with less than 1 year's buyout each as long as the R8 get their TV contract money.

(08-30-2021 01:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 01:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 01:05 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 12:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My guess is that Big 12 expansion won't happen as quickly as many people will want, but it certainly won't be a "No one is moving until 2025" situation, either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That 2025 date has to be used publicly by everyone involved (whether the Big 12 or UT/OU) because of their existing contracts, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that those schools will be lame ducks for more than one season in practicality.

I tend to think that expansion will happen on the faster side (AKA it won't happen next week, but they'll get it done far before the timeframe of what they're stating publicly). Either you think BYU, Cincinnati and/or other candidates are the right schools for the long-term or you don't. If they're the right schools, then you want to get them into the league as soon as you realistically can so that they can start integrating them in.

Pretty much. I am sure Texas/OU are working behind closed doors to negotiate an early exit. I don't think they remainder of the Big 12 want this circus to go on for 5 seasons either. You know other programs are going to use it against them in recruiting if things remain cloudy like they are now.

Im sure they are---I just dont know how that happens without a tremendous amount of money exchanging hands. This is not a situation where the damages are abstract opinion or estimate. We have a really good idea what it is. If ESPN wants to reduce the B12 TV deal 50% for the remaining years that dont feature OU/UT---then the damages are 125 million times the number of years UT/OU would like to slice off the end of the GOR. If thats 3 years---then its 375 million---and frankly---the Big12 has little reason to negotiate much. By the way---thats ON TOP of the 140 million combined exit fees OU/UT would owe. The only way they get out at a substantially reduced rate is if ESPN promises to honor the face amount for the rest of the current deal (and UT/OU pay the required 70 million EACH in exit fees).

The Big 12 will likely end up getting the full contracted TV money through spring 2025, one way or another. And then whatever amount UT and OU pay in addition to that will be negotiated and paid out over a period of several years.

I think we just said the same thing.

(08-30-2021 01:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 01:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 01:05 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-30-2021 12:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My guess is that Big 12 expansion won't happen as quickly as many people will want, but it certainly won't be a "No one is moving until 2025" situation, either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That 2025 date has to be used publicly by everyone involved (whether the Big 12 or UT/OU) because of their existing contracts, but I don't think anyone seriously believes that those schools will be lame ducks for more than one season in practicality.

I tend to think that expansion will happen on the faster side (AKA it won't happen next week, but they'll get it done far before the timeframe of what they're stating publicly). Either you think BYU, Cincinnati and/or other candidates are the right schools for the long-term or you don't. If they're the right schools, then you want to get them into the league as soon as you realistically can so that they can start integrating them in.

Pretty much. I am sure Texas/OU are working behind closed doors to negotiate an early exit. I don't think they remainder of the Big 12 want this circus to go on for 5 seasons either. You know other programs are going to use it against them in recruiting if things remain cloudy like they are now.

Im sure they are---I just dont know how that happens without a tremendous amount of money exchanging hands. This is not a situation where the damages are abstract opinion or estimate. We have a really good idea what it is. If ESPN wants to reduce the B12 TV deal 50% for the remaining years that dont feature OU/UT---then the damages are 125 million times the number of years UT/OU would like to slice off the end of the GOR. If thats 3 years---then its 375 million---and frankly---the Big12 has little reason to negotiate much. By the way---thats ON TOP of the 140 million combined exit fees OU/UT would owe. The only way they get out at a substantially reduced rate is if ESPN promises to honor the face amount for the rest of the current deal (and UT/OU pay the required 70 million EACH in exit fees).

The Big 12 will likely end up getting the full contracted TV money through spring 2025, one way or another. And then whatever amount UT and OU pay in addition to that will be negotiated and paid out over a period of several years.

I think so too. They literally hold all the cards. Hard to see how it could play out otherwise.