RE: If the AAC had to pick one
I voted other. They would drop the CCG for a year or two.
Honestly only Rice can afford the AAC among schools east of the Mountain Time Zone. ODU is plausible, and that is about it.
The money is not enough to flip the equation from net negative to positive for the MWC schools since they would only get a FB share (75%) and would have to drop their Olympics in a bad conference and suffer losses in prominence, NCAA credit distribution, Basketball gate and donations for Olympics, some even paying travel fees as well as the 2nd admission fee. BYU it doesn't help since it down grades their schedule and moves them further from P status, as they'd have to drop most of the P5 schools on their schedule.
The only school where the money makes sense is Colorado State if invited as a full member. They already have an AAC level budget (not even Rice is quite there) and could fit regionally with SMU, Tulsa and Wichita State, and even Memphis and Houston are not too bad travel. As a full member they would be right side up financially with a move. The only question is, would they be willing to break their front range and four corner rivalries (New Mexico, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah State, Boise State and even Colorado) for a shift East, even if it's a net of perhaps $3M a year to the budget (that is significant).
The math doesn't work (or even come close) for San Diego State (a near major Basketball program with a NET of 4 would be relegated to playing the likes of CSUN, CSU Bakersfield, UC Irvine and UC Riverside), Fresno State or Boise State (really negative for them given travel fee for Olympics, the $1.8M bonus from the MWC TV contract and the tilted distributions in their favor).
Army said no even after a summer of strong pitch by the Naval academy, and it's hard to see them change stance, as Indy is working pretty well for them. Air Force has all the same negatives for Olympics as Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State, as well as losing front range rivalries; and they also said no.
The field is really only three: Colorado State, Rice, and Old Dominion. The first two passed the first phase of the Big 12 expansion search, which tells you they are the strongest possible choices. Old Dominion fit geographically and has sufficient support from student fees, but they really don't have enough fan support, tradition or success. So of the three, they are the weakest.
Other names thrown out lack the finances (UTSA, Marshall, Charlotte) or are small schools or both (e.g., UAB, Southern Miss).
The best strategy for the AAC is to ask for a waiver extension if Divisions are still required for a CCG; Covid-19 is a valid reason to put off expansion, and I think the other conferences would agree. Failing that, after the 2021 season they could opt to return to Divisions with Navy skipping one West opponent each year for three years (say Tulane in '22, Tulsa in '23 and Memphis in '24). This is key as June 30th, 2025 is the expiration of the Big 12 GOR, and Oklahoma's decision on whether to stay in the Big 12 or move to another conference (SEC or B1G). If OU stays put, then the AAC will know they need a 12th member. If OU leaves then a decision to expand or not depends upon whom the Big 12 chooses as a replacement (BYU, Houston, Cincy and UCF are the leading candidates) or if they simply stand at 9 and play an 8 game round robin. The scenarios are endless. But the uncertainty about 2025 makes any moves into the AAC unlikely before OU's direction is clear. Even Colorado State would likely put off a move (why join a conference that could see two or three of the top schools leave the day you join) if offered.
The best and most likely strategy is to do nothing, just stretch things out until Spring 2025, when you know what will happen in the big picture. Frankly Divisionless football is the most likely. That is why I voted "other".
|
/
If the AAC had to pick one
