CSNbbs

Let’s assume that the NCAA says no to divisionless after the waiver.

Let’s also assume that all the favorites (Army, Air Force, BYU, Boise St) have all said no.

Who does the AAC take?

NIU purely so the board can openly accept me as a full member and not an honorary member

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I voted for Georgia State out of the options because they are an institutional and geographic fit. I'd vote for Rice if their administration came forward with a plan to invest in their programs like SMU. Buffalo would be third to me...they are a poor geographic fit, but they are nevertheless an AAU member and have been very good on the field and court of late.

BYU

Ima vote for OD ...

Quote:(All the good options have already said no)

... HEY!

*votes ODU anyway*

UAB. Strong in football and men's basketball. Within the footprint. Strong recruiting market. New/modern facilities. Past associations with majority of the AAC (in C-USA/Metro), with similar academics to many AAC schools. Like-minded institution as well (Southern/Metro school with football-first athletic program).

For me it’s UAB or ODU

I can see Tulane, SMU, Tulsa, and Navy advocating for Rice. Possibly Houston as well since I don’t really think they compete for the same players, but I’m not sure about that.

Birmingham has a nice location because they’re in the footprint, but not encroaching on any other member’s territory, like Old Dominion would (sort of).

Where can I find the athletic budgets of these schools? I’m going to need more data before I vote.

UAB - Decent TV market. Solid basketball. Good football recently. new football facilities and new football stadium. within AAC footprint. Alabama great recruiting. They have a long history with a lot of AAC schools.


Only downside I see is there relationship with the UAT. (and there uniforms... jk)


2nd best choice ODU but they have no football history.

Sentimentally and if deserve had anything to do with Southern Miss and/or Marshall would be in the AAC.

Oh, you meant like schools with the potential to grow and actually contribute to the brand?!

Man, I thought this was which posters are the most fun to interact with...



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I'd say UAB for geography.

They are getting a new stadium and could develop a solid fan base.

(07-09-2020 10:51 AM)TexanMark Wrote: [ -> ]I'd say UAB for geography.

They are getting a new stadium and could develop a solid fan base.

UAB is under the thumb of Alabama. They're a non-starter. As for the pole, None of the above.

Budgets and markets - ECU's represents the AAC's budget floor at $46.9 M and the league touts 10 Top-58 DMA's.

School | Budget | DMA
ODU | $44.3 M | 42
UB | $40.8 M | 52
GSU | $39.5 M | 10
UNCC | $37.9 M | 21
UAB | $34.7 M | 44
MU | $30.6 M | 74
UTSA | $30.4 M | 31
USM | $24.2 M | 167

The line of demarcation would be planted between UAB's $34.7 M and Marshall's $30.6 M, as that gap will grow with UAB's new on-campus football stadium and $125M Legacy Arena renovation, eliminating Marshall, UTSA, & USM. Market size would eliminate Marshall & USM as well.

Charlotte gets eliminated next: 15k seat FB stadium, no FB success.
App St isn't listed but they'll have a hell of a time breaking through with its market -- App St's value is too performance-oriented for an urban league.

That leaves 5: Rice, ODU, Buffalo, UAB, & Georgia St.

Rice and Buffalo represent G5's only AAU schools (sans Tulane), so extra points. But Buffalo's far-flung geography with no exceptional fan support to makeup for it eliminates them.

Final 4: Rice, ODU, UAB, & Georgia St.

If they go budget, ODU.
If they go market, Georgia St.
If they go academics, Rice.
If they go well-roundedness, UAB.

It can go any of 4 directions.

My guess:

TIER I (legitimate shot)
1 UAB - 30%
2 ODU - 25%
3 Rice - 20%
4 GA St - 15%

TIER II (long shots)
5 Buffalo - 6%
6 Charlotte - 2%
7 App St - 2%

TIER III (no shot)
8 Marshall - 0%
9 UTSA - 0%
10 Southern Miss - 0%

UAB checks every box and who I'd expect to win:
Market - #44 DMA, top-2 in CFB TV ratings, top-10 state for FB recruits
Academics - #166 USNWR, R1
Budget - $12M below ECU, but would be made up with new FB stadium, renovated BB arena, & AAC tv revenue
History - Past shared membership, current football success, past MBB success

Why is App State or Georgia Southern not on this list?

(07-09-2020 10:11 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: [ -> ]Let’s assume that the NCAA says no to divisionless after the waiver.

Let’s also assume that all the favorites (Army, Air Force, BYU, Boise St) have all said no.

Who does the AAC take?

(07-09-2020 11:42 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote: [ -> ]

(07-09-2020 10:11 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: [ -> ]Let’s assume that the NCAA says no to divisionless after the waiver.

Let’s also assume that all the favorites (Army, Air Force, BYU, Boise St) have all said no.

Who does the AAC take?

We might not see college football again until September 2021 so some of us are bored.

Each of the schools on the list would bring positives.

I would prefer AppState for football only and VCU for all sports but football. But that seems unlikely.

Of the more realistic options ...

I like UAB. Would be a fine choice with its medical school, solid endowment, nice combo of hoops and football (and soccer is strong, too) and past associations with many current AAC members.

But I might take ODU instead. I see that athletics program as a "sleeping giant" among the G5. Offer ODU AAC membership and its athletics program might take off.

A wildcard could be either Buffalo or Georgia State.

I voted Marshall, but ODU was a close second in my mind. With UConn gone, the conference could really use a school to bolster the eastern part of the conference. Marshall sits nicely between ECU, Temple and Cincy and has well established football and basketball programs. ODU is a nice bridge between Temple and ECU and is in a larger TV market. VCU would solve the problem very well also if football is not a consideration, i.e., the conference is not trying to get back to 12 football members.

Based on what I hear from Memphis, I think the AAC doesn't plan to add anybody until forced to do so by not having a waiver. It's the same situation as every other conference considering expansion in the past. Nobody out there really makes fiscal sense, without some type of dispensation from the sponsoring network.

Second, if and when they have to add somebody (not one of the 4 favorites already listed and excluded from the poll), JMO, but I think it could be somebody like Air Force or Colorado State, who aren't even in the poll.

And if we went back to 12 and football divisions, then Memphis or Tulane would simply slide to the East.

(07-09-2020 11:30 AM)GTFletch Wrote: [ -> ]Why is App State or Georgia Southern not on this list?

I don't consider either an AAC candidate (just want to make that clear).

However, since the premise is "had to pick one" I can tell you if the AAC were consulting ESPN and asking who among the schools that would accept an invite will dilute their TV money the least I can promise you Georgia Southern and App State will be higher on the list than Georgia State, UNCC, and probably most of the teams listed in the poll.


For those that still haven't figured it out, ESPN doesn't give a rat's *** about media markets. They're going to pay more for teams that get eyeballs on TVs. ESPN's favorite Sun Belt matchup to choose for TV is Georgia Southern versus Appalachian State, two teams in towns with a combined population under 60,000. It's been chosen every year since both teams entered the conference and every other Sun Belt game has been untelevised at least twice since then.