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I'm definitely taking the over, but it's also entirely possible that we could be 2-4 at the halfway mark. I don't think any of those games are gimmes. We can talk all the trash we want about Miami, but we haven't blown them out since 2012 and have had some nail biters of late. Marshall on the road and an improved Chip Kelly-led UCLA are no joke, and we already know what we are up against with UCF at home and Houston and OSU on the road.

(08-21-2019 05:03 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  I'm definitely taking the over, but it's also entirely possible that we could be 2-4 at the halfway mark. I don't think any of those games are gimmes. We can talk all the trash we want about Miami, but we haven't blown them out since 2012 and have had some nail biters of late. Marshall on the road and an improved Chip Kelly-led UCLA are no joke, and we already know what we are up against with UCF at home and Houston and OSU on the road.

If UC is 2-4 and have lost to Miami as one of those 4 I'll definitely be upset. I get that the schedule is tougher but if the program wants to grow and garner more respect they have to produce positive results. Let's say they end up 6-6 on the season, which I can't see happening barring crazy injuries, that would be a huge blow to the program with many stating that last season was an absolute fluke. Can't have something like that if you want to stay relevant.

Personally, I believe we're all overthinking everything at this point. I'm just ready for next week to see the product on the field so we have something to talk about other than just optimism or worry.

(08-21-2019 05:03 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  We can talk all the trash we want about Miami, but we haven't blown them out since 2012 and have had some nail biters of late.

We had back to back 4 win seasons and still beat them. Our talent level has increased dramatically since Fickel took over and we're playing them at home. That game is a gimmie; we're going to get back to the early part of the streak where we were dominating them annually.

Just as the football had 3 walk off Int's, they were also 1 field goal away from a 12-1 season and supposedly this year team is deeper....better is left to be seen.

(08-22-2019 07:24 AM)ucdsk Wrote:  Just as the football had 3 walk off Int's, they were also 1 field goal away from a 12-1 season and supposedly this year team is deeper....better is left to be seen.

Yes. Hindsight is indeed 20/20 as the old saying goes. Could UC have won more decisively in the Rose Bowl had our starting QB not gone down early pushing a young, inexperienced Ridder into action? Or was that to UC's advantage as Kelly had planned on defending Moore? Who knows.

I do think success this season will swing on Ridder's taking a big step forward developmentally. If he's tucking the ball in and running as much as last season, I don't think that bodes well. It may mean a deficiency at WR, or his inability to deliver passes with greater accuracy.

It's hard keeping most any QB healthy over a long season taking the kind of punishment UCLA and OSU will surely attempt by going after him early and often.

Part of the enjoyment of spectator sports is the unpredictability. If this was the worst team in FCS visiting next Thursday, Nippert would be 1/3 empty and all the talk would be about week two.

I watched some pretty dreadful football at UC as an undergraduate in the late 70's against directional schools I couldn't find on a map. Opening with UCLA, primetime national TV, and high expectations is truly a special occasion.

We can't...we won't...we never...it's just not possible...

(08-21-2019 03:06 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  So, can anyone tell me a team that beat all their opponents in comfortable win margins? It's just like the dudes who said after the 4-8 campaign that UC could've easily ended up 1-11. Except that they didn't. Sweet Lord some just can't enjoy a win! On the Vegas issue, who knows what their reasoning is but if this team only wins 6 or 7 games it is because of major injuries to key players or it's an extreme underachieving effort. This team is the most loaded talent and depth-wise it's ever been in some time and our head coach won't let the team give nothing less than maximum effort. Yes, the schedule is tougher but I believe that we're a better team than last year. We suffered no bad losses last season and I believe that trend continues. We may end up with a similar or worse conference record than last year but still win the East and the Conference Chip because the overall parity of the top teams in the American. Bet the over!!!

This.

Looking only at close wins is stupid. Why not also consider close losses?

We lost to Temple in OT in a game we controlled. Temple won on 3 missed UC field goals, a last-minute Temple drive to tie it up, and 3 freak plays in OT (a UC fumble on 1st down, a UC unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on 2nd down, and a way underthrown ball by Ridder on 3rd down that was picked off).

UC probably should have won the Temple game and lost one of either the Ohio or SMU games. Same record for us either way.

(08-21-2019 05:03 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  I'm definitely taking the over, but it's also entirely possible that we could be 2-4 at the halfway mark. I don't think any of those games are gimmes. We can talk all the trash we want about Miami, but we haven't blown them out since 2012 and have had some nail biters of late. Marshall on the road and an improved Chip Kelly-led UCLA are no joke, and we already know what we are up against with UCF at home and Houston and OSU on the road.

I suspect Vegas is lukewarm since they couldn’t give a rats arse if a team wins or loses so long as the action comes in.

Last year other than Temple where we could not get out of our own way down the stretch, damn near every ball bounced our way in tight games. I can make a strong argument for 9-3...I may be able to make an equally strong argument for 7-5 despite the fact that this team could be much improved. The schedule is brutal.

Hope for a close entertaining game in Columbus but I think reasonable minds sorta have grounded expectations on how that game will end up. I don’t see a win in Memphis on prime time. I expect to lose a shootout to the greasy mullet in Houston. UCF is incredibly talented and who knows what to expect from Charlie Strong’s squad.

The UCLA and Marshal games will set the trajectory for the entire season, IMO. Both of those are being largely discounted by fans but those could both be real dogfights.

I am by no means saying that I think we will start 2-4, nor am I predicting anything at all, let alone a loss to Miami. I was merely pointing to the fact that with that tough of a schedule to start the season, just about anything is possible, which is why Vegas is understandably nervous about giving us a high win total.

Preseason stuff is worthless. No one had us doing what we did last year this time in 2018. Regardless of how we do this year, i'm confident the program is on the right track. Even when we hit our lower points of this past 10 or 15 years, the seasons were often punctuated by games where we were careless with the ball, and we were not necessarily losing games because of talent. That can happen to any team regardless of how good or bad they are on paper. Turnovers are the key, and my guess is we run the ball quite a bit which typically means possessions and lower turnovers. We'll see. I'm ready for some fball!

(08-22-2019 09:59 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(08-21-2019 03:06 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  So, can anyone tell me a team that beat all their opponents in comfortable win margins? It's just like the dudes who said after the 4-8 campaign that UC could've easily ended up 1-11. Except that they didn't. Sweet Lord some just can't enjoy a win! On the Vegas issue, who knows what their reasoning is but if this team only wins 6 or 7 games it is because of major injuries to key players or it's an extreme underachieving effort. This team is the most loaded talent and depth-wise it's ever been in some time and our head coach won't let the team give nothing less than maximum effort. Yes, the schedule is tougher but I believe that we're a better team than last year. We suffered no bad losses last season and I believe that trend continues. We may end up with a similar or worse conference record than last year but still win the East and the Conference Chip because the overall parity of the top teams in the American. Bet the over!!!

This.

Looking only at close wins is stupid. Why not also consider close losses?

We lost to Temple in OT in a game we controlled. Temple won on 3 missed UC field goals, a last-minute Temple drive to tie it up, and 3 freak plays in OT (a UC fumble on 1st down, a UC unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on 2nd down, and a way underthrown ball by Ridder on 3rd down that was picked off).

UC probably should have won the Temple game and lost one of either the Ohio or SMU games. Same record for us either way.

There are advanced stats that try to quantify how "lucky" a team is--Second Order Wins, for instance, which is similar to Pythagorean Record in baseball, if you are familiar with that. UC was pretty "lucky" last year, by that measure. Basically, we had about 1.5 more wins than our stats would have predicted.

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. - Senaca

In other words, good teams often make their own luck.

(08-21-2019 02:43 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Having a $2-$3 line on 7.5 means Vegas could probably adjust even money to 8.5 or 9 wins and still be happy with the payback, but they don't because they're getting enough money in a bad paybacks for bettors that it doesn't matter to them at the moment.

Truthfully, we have 2 Vegas losses (OSU and UCF), 4 toss-ups (Memphis, Houston, UCLA, and Temple), and 3 more that could be losses if balls bounce the wrong way (Marshall, Tulsa, and USF), so they're giving us 2 toss-up wins, 2 bad bounce wins, and 2 likely wins, which seems fair...then they make the bettors decide if they'll win any of the others.

This makes total sense. Lot of rose colored glasses around here. I’m excited for the season, but it could well be a very sobering one. Very tough schedule and we’ll need those bad bounces to go our way again if we expect to win the conference. UCLA will be much better and hell bent on avenging last year’s loss. OSU will be almost impossible to win on the road.
Hoping if we should start 0-2 it doesn’t kill these guys’ confidence. Hope the Nip at Night effect carries us through next Thursday! Go Cats!

No one is predicting a blowout of UCLA on here. UCF they are not. Ohio State they are not. We should beat this team at home. If it's by one point, then so be it. I believe we'll win by more than 3 points. When was the last time an OOC P5/BCS beat us at the Nip? Unless I missed one, it was 2002 when we were members of CUSA and W Virginia was in the Big East.

2015 Miami, FL W
2013 Purdue W
2011 NCSU W
2009 Illinois W
2007 Oregon St W
2002 West Virginia L

Outside of the top 7-8 programs there isn't a big difference among the next 50 top programs. Hell Ohio had us down 21-0 last year and UC came back and won.

(08-21-2019 03:06 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  So, can anyone tell me a team that beat all their opponents in comfortable win margins? It's just like the dudes who said after the 4-8 campaign that UC could've easily ended up 1-11. Except that they didn't. Sweet Lord some just can't enjoy a win! On the Vegas issue, who knows what their reasoning is but if this team only wins 6 or 7 games it is because of major injuries to key players or it's an extreme underachieving effort. This team is the most loaded talent and depth-wise it's ever been in some time and our head coach won't let the team give nothing less than maximum effort. Yes, the schedule is tougher but I believe that we're a better team than last year. We suffered no bad losses last season and I believe that trend continues. We may end up with a similar or worse conference record than last year but still win the East and the Conference Chip because the overall parity of the top teams in the American. Bet the over!!!

IMO the Temple loss was a very “bad” loss.

(08-24-2019 06:51 PM)Bcatbog Wrote:  IMO the Temple loss was a very “bad” loss.

If you mean the way we lost the game [or blew opportunities to win it] then I would agree. The reality is losing on the road to a team that finished with the second best record in the conference [7-1] behind UCF is not a bad loss. Temple went to Houston and beat them and played UCF in Orlando much tougher than we did. If we lost to MyAMuh, UConn, ECU, SMU, etc., then that would equate to a bad loss by my measure.

I was at that game in Philly and that was in my opinion by far Ridder's worst game. Even though we led a large part of it, i think he would be the first to admit his performance was a letdown. It happens, particularly with a first yr. qb.

Road QB performance is my biggest concern this season. Outside of UConn the offense wasn't good in true road games last year. If Ridder and the offense take big steps this season then everything is possible. If the offense takes gradual steps then 7 to 9 wins is the likely result with higher end of that spectrum being where I sit.

I actually have the 2020 season as the one where UC should be favored the win the league and get the New Year's 6 bowl. My goal for the year is 9-3, defend Nippert, an win a bowl game. Do those things and UC would likely finished ranked based on the schedule.