1.Weak schedule last year vs impossible schedule this year.
2. Replacing key parts of the o and d line
3. QB play was inconsistent
4. Won a lot of close games that could go the other way this year.
(08-21-2019 12:22 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote: [ -> ]1.Weak schedule last year vs impossible schedule this year.
2. Replacing key parts of the o and d line
3. QB play was inconsistent
4. Won a lot of close games that could go the other way this year.
All valid concerns, especially since most of us are seeing the upcoming season through our rose colored glasses prior to the first kickoff.
On the other hand, last year's Bearcat team had talent, but also demonstrated much grit and determination to win a lot from Pasadena to Annapolis. I'm betting that will be the x factor again, propelling this team to at least nine wins. But it's far from a given against this schedule.
(08-21-2019 12:27 PM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:22 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote: [ -> ]1.Weak schedule last year vs impossible schedule this year.
2. Replacing key parts of the o and d line
3. QB play was inconsistent
4. Won a lot of close games that could go the other way this year.
All valid concerns, especially since most of us are seeing the upcoming season through our rose colored glasses prior to the first kickoff.
On the other hand, last year's Bearcat team had talent, but also demonstrated much grit and determination to win a lot from Pasadena to Annapolis. I'm betting that will be the x factor again, propelling this team to at least nine wins. But it's far from a given against this schedule.
I think 10 wins again is possible but it’s hard to win on the road against good teams let alone a few great ones. If UC is only slightly better than last year 7 to 8 wins is likely. If the team is a lot better than 9 or more wins should occur.
(08-21-2019 12:17 PM)JPBearcat3 Wrote: [ -> ]Thought about keeping this in one of the other threads, but it's still the offseason, so sue me.
Every betting line I've seen so far this year for team wins has UC's over/under set somewhere around 6 or 7.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-fbs-team/
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futu...-team-wins
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2019...ls-tracker
Now, most of the payouts on the over are -200 or -300, so they're hedging a bit... but what in the hell do they know that I don't?
Can you imagine how miserable this season would be at 6 or 7 wins? I have visions of a conference championship and a NY6 bowl. If this team trends to a .500 winning percentage, I'll lose my damn mind.
I mean I can't really remember the last time we had a "walk-off" interception before last season and we had 3 of them last year. We could easily have lost in Pasadena if they get the 4th down stop, lost to OU at Nippert without the interception, lost at SMU without the interception, weren't close in the UCF game, and could easily have lost to a 6-6 VA Tech that "didn't really care about the game".
This year we play a much much much harder schedule and I still think we're going to struggle mightily at the WR position and struggle a bit at DT.
What we know that Vegas doesn't...
1. Lorentz Metz is a monster and he will be able to hold his own at left or right tackle, especially in the run game.
2. Elijah Ponder has improved dramatically so I think our interior DL won't drop off too much. Love our speed off the edges too.
3. Our back 7 on D may be the best we've ever had.
4. Wideouts are still a bit of a question mark but it sounds like Alec Pierce has been having a good camp. Also, we are stacked at the slot and tight end position so hopefully we can gameplan around that against teams with lockdown corners.
I think 8 regular-season wins are the floor (barring major injuries) and 10 wins are the ceiling so place those bets before we expose UCLA.
(08-21-2019 12:34 PM)skylinecat Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:17 PM)JPBearcat3 Wrote: [ -> ]Thought about keeping this in one of the other threads, but it's still the offseason, so sue me.
Every betting line I've seen so far this year for team wins has UC's over/under set somewhere around 6 or 7.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-fbs-team/
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futu...-team-wins
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2019...ls-tracker
Now, most of the payouts on the over are -200 or -300, so they're hedging a bit... but what in the hell do they know that I don't?
Can you imagine how miserable this season would be at 6 or 7 wins? I have visions of a conference championship and a NY6 bowl. If this team trends to a .500 winning percentage, I'll lose my damn mind.
I mean I can't really remember the last time we had a "walk-off" interception before last season and we had 3 of them last year. We could easily have lost in Pasadena if they get the 4th down stop, lost to OU at Nippert without the interception, lost at SMU without the interception, weren't close in the UCF game, and could easily have lost to a 6-6 VA Tech that "didn't really care about the game".
This year we play a much much much harder schedule and I still think we're going to struggle mightily at the WR position and struggle a bit at DT.
Exactly this. The last two years, quite a few wins came by a razor's edge; in addition to those you mentioned from last season, in 2017, they were literally 3 plays away from being 1-11. Plus they replaced games against a bad SMU, Navy, and Tulane with road games at Houston and Memphis. They also don't have the FCS freebie to lean on this season.
All that being said, bet the hell out of the over, fellas.
(08-21-2019 12:41 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:34 PM)skylinecat Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:17 PM)JPBearcat3 Wrote: [ -> ]Thought about keeping this in one of the other threads, but it's still the offseason, so sue me.
Every betting line I've seen so far this year for team wins has UC's over/under set somewhere around 6 or 7.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-fbs-team/
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futu...-team-wins
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2019...ls-tracker
Now, most of the payouts on the over are -200 or -300, so they're hedging a bit... but what in the hell do they know that I don't?
Can you imagine how miserable this season would be at 6 or 7 wins? I have visions of a conference championship and a NY6 bowl. If this team trends to a .500 winning percentage, I'll lose my damn mind.
I mean I can't really remember the last time we had a "walk-off" interception before last season and we had 3 of them last year. We could easily have lost in Pasadena if they get the 4th down stop, lost to OU at Nippert without the interception, lost at SMU without the interception, weren't close in the UCF game, and could easily have lost to a 6-6 VA Tech that "didn't really care about the game".
This year we play a much much much harder schedule and I still think we're going to struggle mightily at the WR position and struggle a bit at DT.
Exactly this. The last two years, quite a few wins came by a razor's edge; in addition to those you mentioned from last season, in 2017, they were literally 3 plays away from being 1-11. Plus they replaced games against a bad SMU, Navy, and Tulane with road games at Houston and Memphis. They also don't have the FCS freebie to lean on this season.
All that being said, bet the hell out of the over, fellas.
Well, Miami and [REDACTED] are basically FCS teams already so we can count on those...
(08-21-2019 12:41 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:34 PM)skylinecat Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:17 PM)JPBearcat3 Wrote: [ -> ]Thought about keeping this in one of the other threads, but it's still the offseason, so sue me.
Every betting line I've seen so far this year for team wins has UC's over/under set somewhere around 6 or 7.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-fbs-team/
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futu...-team-wins
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2019...ls-tracker
Now, most of the payouts on the over are -200 or -300, so they're hedging a bit... but what in the hell do they know that I don't?
Can you imagine how miserable this season would be at 6 or 7 wins? I have visions of a conference championship and a NY6 bowl. If this team trends to a .500 winning percentage, I'll lose my damn mind.
I mean I can't really remember the last time we had a "walk-off" interception before last season and we had 3 of them last year. We could easily have lost in Pasadena if they get the 4th down stop, lost to OU at Nippert without the interception, lost at SMU without the interception, weren't close in the UCF game, and could easily have lost to a 6-6 VA Tech that "didn't really care about the game".
This year we play a much much much harder schedule and I still think we're going to struggle mightily at the WR position and struggle a bit at DT.
Exactly this. The last two years, quite a few wins came by a razor's edge; in addition to those you mentioned from last season, in 2017, they were literally 3 plays away from being 1-11. Plus they replaced games against a bad SMU, Navy, and Tulane with road games at Houston and Memphis. They also don't have the FCS freebie to lean on this season.
All that being said, bet the hell out of the over, fellas.
On the positive side the team learned how to win. Nippert can be a extremely difficult for opponents.
(08-21-2019 12:48 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:41 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:34 PM)skylinecat Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:17 PM)JPBearcat3 Wrote: [ -> ]Thought about keeping this in one of the other threads, but it's still the offseason, so sue me.
Every betting line I've seen so far this year for team wins has UC's over/under set somewhere around 6 or 7.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-fbs-team/
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futu...-team-wins
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2019...ls-tracker
Now, most of the payouts on the over are -200 or -300, so they're hedging a bit... but what in the hell do they know that I don't?
Can you imagine how miserable this season would be at 6 or 7 wins? I have visions of a conference championship and a NY6 bowl. If this team trends to a .500 winning percentage, I'll lose my damn mind.
I mean I can't really remember the last time we had a "walk-off" interception before last season and we had 3 of them last year. We could easily have lost in Pasadena if they get the 4th down stop, lost to OU at Nippert without the interception, lost at SMU without the interception, weren't close in the UCF game, and could easily have lost to a 6-6 VA Tech that "didn't really care about the game".
This year we play a much much much harder schedule and I still think we're going to struggle mightily at the WR position and struggle a bit at DT.
Exactly this. The last two years, quite a few wins came by a razor's edge; in addition to those you mentioned from last season, in 2017, they were literally 3 plays away from being 1-11. Plus they replaced games against a bad SMU, Navy, and Tulane with road games at Houston and Memphis. They also don't have the FCS freebie to lean on this season.
All that being said, bet the hell out of the over, fellas.
On the positive side the team learned how to win. Nippert can be a extremely difficult for opponents.
getting their swagger back is a huge factor! confidence expecting to win and knowing how really goes a long way
(08-21-2019 12:35 PM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ]What we know that Vegas doesn't...
1. Lorentz Metz is a monster and he will be able to hold his own at left or right tackle, especially in the run game.
2. Elijah Ponder has improved dramatically so I think our interior DL won't drop off too much. Love our speed off the edges too.
3. Our back 7 on D may be the best we've ever had.
4. Wideouts are still a bit of a question mark but it sounds like Alec Pierce has been having a good camp. Also, we are stacked at the slot and tight end position so hopefully we can gameplan around that against teams with lockdown corners.
I think 8 regular-season wins are the floor (barring major injuries) and 10 wins are the ceiling so place those bets before we expose UCLA.
Very valid... those wringing their hands over the "walk-off" wins aren't taking into consideration we have improved in other areas of the game. In addition to the things you list:
1. With a year of play and an off season to prepare and train, Des Ridder will be a better QB than he was last season
2. We have a three headed (possibly four) monster at RB. Last year we primarily went to MW 80% of the time.
3. We don't have Copeland and Broughton in the middle, but this team could be better at providing pressure on the outside from DE and the LB spot.
4. Speaking of LB, transfer Darian Beavers by all accounts will be a stud.
5. I anticipate being better on special teams. Will not be surprised to return a punt or a kickoff for the first time since Mardy.
(08-21-2019 12:59 PM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ] (08-21-2019 12:35 PM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ]What we know that Vegas doesn't...
1. Lorentz Metz is a monster and he will be able to hold his own at left or right tackle, especially in the run game.
2. Elijah Ponder has improved dramatically so I think our interior DL won't drop off too much. Love our speed off the edges too.
3. Our back 7 on D may be the best we've ever had.
4. Wideouts are still a bit of a question mark but it sounds like Alec Pierce has been having a good camp. Also, we are stacked at the slot and tight end position so hopefully we can gameplan around that against teams with lockdown corners.
I think 8 regular-season wins are the floor (barring major injuries) and 10 wins are the ceiling so place those bets before we expose UCLA.
Very valid... those wringing their hands over the "walk-off" wins aren't taking into consideration we have improved in other areas of the game. In addition to the things you list:
1. With a year of play and an off season to prepare and train, Des Ridder will be a better QB than he was last season
2. We have a three headed (possibly four) monster at RB. Last year we primarily went to MW 80% of the time.
3. We don't have Copeland and Broughton in the middle, but this team could be better at providing pressure on the outside from DE and the LB spot.
4. Speaking of LB, transfer Darian Beavers by all accounts will be a stud.
5. I anticipate being better on special teams. Will not be surprised to return a punt or a kickoff for the first time since Mardy.
LFG! Can't wait till next week
I'm sure if you asked the guys in Vegas they'd implore you to go ahead and make the bet
Having a $2-$3 line on 7.5 means Vegas could probably adjust even money to 8.5 or 9 wins and still be happy with the payback, but they don't because they're getting enough money in a bad paybacks for bettors that it doesn't matter to them at the moment.
Truthfully, we have 2 Vegas losses (OSU and UCF), 4 toss-ups (Memphis, Houston, UCLA, and Temple), and 3 more that could be losses if balls bounce the wrong way (Marshall, Tulsa, and USF), so they're giving us 2 toss-up wins, 2 bad bounce wins, and 2 likely wins, which seems fair...then they make the bettors decide if they'll win any of the others.
Agreed with some of the concerns others have stated. Even factoring for those, I think the floor is 7-8 wins. Vegas thinks we're likely to win 6-7 games. That doesn't add up.
Imagine this board if we're 5-5 with two left to play...
(08-21-2019 12:35 PM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ]What we know that Vegas doesn't...
1. Lorentz Metz is a monster and he will be able to hold his own at left or right tackle, especially in the run game.
2. Elijah Ponder has improved dramatically so I think our interior DL won't drop off too much. Love our speed off the edges too.
3. Our back 7 on D may be the best we've ever had.
4. Wideouts are still a bit of a question mark but it sounds like Alec Pierce has been having a good camp. Also, we are stacked at the slot and tight end position so hopefully we can gameplan around that against teams with lockdown corners.
I think 8 regular-season wins are the floor (barring major injuries) and 10 wins are the ceiling so place those bets before we expose UCLA.
Not trying to be a jerk, just some observations:
1) Lorentz Metz has never played an in game down of competitive football in America.
2) Broughton and Copeland are both still on NFL rosters. Expecting Ponder to step in and replace that production is not realistic.
3) Our back 7 is mostly the same as last year and while they are talented, I'm not sure they can play that much better than they did last year (see Wiggins 3 game winning interceptions) and there won't be the pressure up the gut we had last season.
4) Alec Pierce is a sophomore with 0 career catches and right now it sounds like he is going to be our number 1 WR. The TE position we love has 1 guy who is a for sure good player. The others are freshman and sophomores with a combined 3 catches for 31 yards.
5) It doesn't sound like Dez is exactly tearing it up at fall camp. Sometimes guys don't continually get better just because they are a year older. Especially guys that come to UC as 3 unheralded star recruits. ****, he went to St. X in Louisville and couldn't get a UofL offer. That is basically unheard of.
Listen, I think this team is better than last years and that my reasons above are just the deliberately very pessimistic view, but our schedule is a hell of a lot harder this year which leaves me with a lot of concern. I can see why Vegas is setting the line where they are.
Talked to a player the other day. Of course he's optimistic, but both lines are a concern playing against the better teams on the schedule.
So, can anyone tell me a team that beat all their opponents in comfortable win margins? It's just like the dudes who said after the 4-8 campaign that UC could've easily ended up 1-11. Except that they didn't. Sweet Lord some just can't enjoy a win! On the Vegas issue, who knows what their reasoning is but if this team only wins 6 or 7 games it is because of major injuries to key players or it's an extreme underachieving effort. This team is the most loaded talent and depth-wise it's ever been in some time and our head coach won't let the team give nothing less than maximum effort. Yes, the schedule is tougher but I believe that we're a better team than last year. We suffered no bad losses last season and I believe that trend continues. We may end up with a similar or worse conference record than last year but still win the East and the Conference Chip because the overall parity of the top teams in the American. Bet the over!!!
I think that vegas only looks objectively at the upcoming season.
I think what we're looking at is the quantum leap in improvement between Fick team #1 and Fick team #2 and expecting Fick team #3 to improve by the same amount compared to Fick team #2... which will give us the season we're all hoping for.