(01-13-2019 06:01 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Hahaha, I think I have probably severely miscommunicated my true opinion on our potential.

I’m not saying Rowe unequivocally deserves a 4th year. I just don’t think King will buy out two years of his contract. You’re right. The thought-process SHOULD be different for the cost of the arena.

I believe you are spot on. CK will not eat two years. With that stated, I do believe he's somewhat on probation this season, in that, CK and JB will make a decision but not say a word about their decision until after next season. If LR doesn't impress those two from here until the end of the season, he will be coaching the Dukes next year without being notified that it will be he's last. Then, the only way he'll be retained beyond that fourth season is to have a miracle like MB had as he approached the end of his first contract.

(01-13-2019 10:01 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(01-13-2019 05:38 PM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  To me, this is a money situation. And the person in charge, King, is a money guy. King approved an $88 million arena that, without a large improvement, will sit 75% empty. This is not like ANY other situation that JMU has ever faced. When they built the Convo, they were PACKING Godwin. When they expanded Bridgeforth they were PACKING the smaller version. In at 7k+ arena, JMU just got <2,600 people on a Saturday in the second-most winnable CAA game of the season - and that's TOTAL attendance, not tickets sold. Again, using any other situation in JMU's history is not equivalent to this. Right now we are building the most expensive athletics building in JMU history for a men's basketball team that has the worst attendance in its history.

Other than Hyper, does anyone here think that Rowe will take us to 25+ wins and a top 3 finish next season? If not, why keep him around to stumble into a new arena opening with a new coach at the same time. Even if JMU drops a million dollars on the next coach, that alone isn't enough to pack the house after another sub .500 season next year. We need a season with the new coach before the Bank opens.

We were barely ahead yesterday against a truly TERRIBLE Towson team at home, but were lucky enough to hit our free throws at the end (tied with 4 minutes left). The only games we're going to win are games when our streaky shooters are on. We're not fundamentally sound enough to get past teams when we're having an average shooting game. Let's keep celebrating a home victory where we barely squeaked past the #397 team in the country, though...

You're embellishing. There aren't even 397 D1 teams. You're also wrong and clearly didn't watch the game. Mosely was off shooting and Lewis had a nice game but shot 2-9 from 3. JMU came back because they got contributions from multiple guys and generally speaking took care of the ball, made some adjustments to rebound the ball better and played pretty sound defense. They did this without their most reliable big man this season in Wilson- a guy who's game fits an inside slug fest vs. Towson.

For as flawed as Towson is they stress rebounding and have some big bodies and a few talented D1 players. They just lack cohesion and discipline with all the transfers out of their program. They aren't a good team- I have always felt even when Towson is "good" they are very overrated but it's a league win and the second in the row during what should have been a 3-0 home stand. Now let's see what these guys can do on the road this week.

BTW the better shooting by JMU in recent games is the product of guys reverting to what they are capable of as shooters and better ball movement on offense/better shot selection. Lewis and Banks work very hard on their shot and they are talented kids- it's not a fluke when they shoot well from 3.

The sad thing is...I'm not. And you're right there aren't 397 D1 teams. They're just rated lower than than many D2 teams, at least according to Massey. They're #310 as far as D1 teams. Is that any better? #310 out of 353 in Division 1 MBB? And we were tied at home with 4 minutes left. (It's like saying ODU football was #142 this year...no there aren't 142 FBS teams, but they're ranked below a bunch of FCS teams. They were actually #118 out of 130 FBS teams. Is that any better for them?)

And yes, our guys are talented...never really doubted their talent level...but 10-19 (especially 4-5 for Banks) from 3 against CoC with them shooting very poorly is a fluke. Us going 53% from beyond the arc is very lucky (season avg is 36%). CoC going 22% from beyond the arc is also lucky (season average is 31%). Both happening the same game is a fluke.

On the other hand, I'm not calling our Towson shooting a fluke. I'm saying it's sad that it was that close of a game and that we have to be happy that we were able to gut out a win against the 2nd worst team in the conference in a year when those two bottom teams are nearly historically bad.

To show how bad Towson and Elon are this year...here are all of the CAA teams ranked 300 or below over the past decade (all divisions, because it would take forever to do D1 given Massey's filtering, so you can say it embellishes or magnifies...either way...it's a consistent statistic):
489 - 2019 Elon
397 - 2019 Towson
305 - 2018 JMU
360 - 2017 Drexel
336 - 2016 Delaware
353 - 2015 Towson
356 - 2015 CoC
337 - 2014 UNCW
342 - 2013 UNCW
366 - 2013 ODU
400 - 2013 Hofstra
321 - 2012 Hofstra
326 - 2012 JMU
478 - 2012 WM
866 - 2012 Towson (in D3 territory)
411 - 2011 Towson
346 - 2010 Delaware

2012 is the only year in the past decade when the worst two teams in the CAA were worse than Towson and Elon this year. 4 out of the last 10 years, Towson has been worse than almost every other D1 team, and one year worse than most D2 teams.

I get that Towson is a bad team but I think you're searching too much for a reason to discredit a win. So when the Dukes beat a better team it's a fluke and when they beat a bad team it's they should have beaten them by more? Hey I'd love it if these games were blowouts- it would be a lot less stressful to watch but keep in mind that the Dukes were without a starter got off slow, made some adjustments, made some important plays and shots down the stretch to win by 9. Solid win at home to a bad team but let's see what they do on the road this week.

As for the shooting and Charleston. JMU has been shooting 39% from 3 in conference- that's up from 35% in the OOC portion of their schedule. 5 games in conference is a pretty decent sample size. Maybe the better shooting is the result of the lineup change, better ball movement, and Lewis shooting similar to how he shot the ball from distance last season (36% both last year and through 5 games this year). Banks by the way is shooting 60% from 3 in 5 conference games. 12 for 20. That's pretty remarkable. Especially considering he shot barely 30% (rounded up) last year. Does this jump classify as player development under Lou Rowe? Maybe. I like Banks stroke and obviously he should shoot more. Seems pretty legit to me and not a fluke that he's shooting a high percentage but again these are college kids so there will be a period of relatively poor shooting or even a slump maybe at some point but then maybe Mosely gets hot like we all know he can and it evens out Banks.

Charleston is not a good shooting team so it wasn't that much of a fluke that they shot 22% and maybe JMU's defense had a little to do with their off night. JMU matches up pretty well with Charleston. Northeastern is an example of a team that JMU doesn't match up well against IMO and they will likely be the biggest test for the Dukes in conference.

I think this group deserves a little wait and see- they will likely frustrate us some more but they are capable and show signs of being ok and of making progress.

(01-13-2019 10:53 PM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  

(01-13-2019 06:01 PM)HyperDuke Wrote:  Hahaha, I think I have probably severely miscommunicated my true opinion on our potential.

I’m not saying Rowe unequivocally deserves a 4th year. I just don’t think King will buy out two years of his contract. You’re right. The thought-process SHOULD be different for the cost of the arena.

I believe you are spot on. CK will not eat two years. With that stated, I do believe he's somewhat on probation this season, in that, CK and JB will make a decision but not say a word about their decision until after next season. If LR doesn't impress those two from here until the end of the season, he will be coaching the Dukes next year without being notified that it will be he's last. Then, the only way he'll be retained beyond that fourth season is to have a miracle like MB had as he approached the end of his first contract.

For some of us that worry about the transfer epidemic impacting JMU if a coaching change is made I think the timing of this all (Rowe's contract, Union Bank opening, where the program is in terms of classes and recruiting) works out well.

I've always said that Rowe may be a bridge for the program. Show some signs this year and some progress- come back in year 4 which happens to coincide with a strong recruiting class and 4 returning starters (3 rising sophomores and 1 rising freshmen). Either take enough of a step in 19-20 to warrant coming back for a 5th season (one where you don't have many scholarships to fill from a recruiting standpoint) or turn it over to a higher profile coach who ushers in a new arena at JMU with a competitive team on the floor and an attractive home schedule.

If Rowe was to not see a 5th year (1st in Union Bank) would the rising Seniors go grad transfer and leave JMU and not see thru playing at the Bank under a higher profile coach or would they stay and see it thru? Who knows but a better chance they stay as Seniors than stay if a coaching change is made this offseason when they are rising Sophomores.

I like the timing of this all- we're good. I think we either get there with Rowe or with someone else but we're not hurt by a lame duck situation with recruits. JMU will either be spending some money to extend Rowe at the end of next year of spending some money to buyout the last year of his contract and make a big hire outside of the program at the end of next year. The next big class after the one Rowe just inked with be replacing Lewis, Banks, Wilson, Jacobs, and Jones. and that class will be signed in 20-21 the year the Bank opens.

(01-13-2019 10:11 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(01-13-2019 05:38 PM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  To me, this is a money situation. And the person in charge, King, is a money guy. King approved an $88 million arena that, without a large improvement, will sit 75% empty. This is not like ANY other situation that JMU has ever faced. When they built the Convo, they were PACKING Godwin. When they expanded Bridgeforth they were PACKING the smaller version. In at 7k+ arena, JMU just got <2,600 people on a Saturday in the second-most winnable CAA game of the season - and that's TOTAL attendance, not tickets sold. Again, using any other situation in JMU's history is not equivalent to this. Right now we are building the most expensive athletics building in JMU history for a men's basketball team that has the worst attendance in its history.

Other than Hyper, does anyone here think that Rowe will take us to 25+ wins and a top 3 finish next season? If not, why keep him around to stumble into a new arena opening with a new coach at the same time. Even if JMU drops a million dollars on the next coach, that alone isn't enough to pack the house after another sub .500 season next year. We need a season with the new coach before the Bank opens.

We were barely ahead yesterday against a truly TERRIBLE Towson team at home, but were lucky enough to hit our free throws at the end (tied with 4 minutes left). The only games we're going to win are games when our streaky shooters are on. We're not fundamentally sound enough to get past teams when we're having an average shooting game. Let's keep celebrating a home victory where we barely squeaked past the #397 team in the country, though...

If Rowe and the team show progress there is no guarantee that JMU if they fired Rowe despite the improvement would bring in a new coach who would A) create such a buzz that they would single handedly increase the attendance going into the new arena and B) not take then a small step back with some inevitable roster turnover.

I think if Rowe and the team show improvement- .500% some more wins against top of the conference teams, some more road wins, a win in the CAA Tourney- you bring them back for year 4 and expect that they will make another jump. I really don't see the downside in that.

To me there are two certainties. 1) the Convo in its last year despite maybe some lame attempt at nostalgia will be 2500-3000 in average attendance no matter who the coach is- the schedule may have something to do with this as JMU gears up for a home heavy 20-21 season in the Bank and 2) regardless of who the coach is in 20-21 JMU will field a competitive team in front of larger crowds and some sellouts at the Bank. If it's Rowe it will mean that he has made progress in year 3 and made another jump in year 4 and that he has a Senior laden team with Banks, Lewis, Wilson, etc. If it's another coach the Bank will still be rocking and see some quality OOC games and I think there will be enough talent on the roster or the ability to bring in talent under a new coach.

I really don't see a scenario where not firing Rowe will doom JMU and the new arena- I honestly don't think it's possible. People will come to see the building, teams will come to play at the new building and kids will come to JMU MBB to suit up at the new building regardless of the prior year coach and record.

I read your post without looking at who the author was, and by the time I finished the first paragraph I knew it was written by you 97. I’ll give you this, you’re consistent. That said, I still believe you are wrong.

I believe all JMU fans like LR, and we should be cheering on any signs of improvement and success the MBB shows under his leadership. LR may get a 4th year too, however, he still needs to be replaced. He’s done enough to demonstrate he’s not the HC to put in charge of leading the MBB program into a near $90 million investment and creating the excitement to build attendance. He’s just not. I wish him well, I really do, but he’s not “the guy.” This year or next, he needs to be replaced, and I hope the JMU powers that be are working on a plan that will allow JMU to put between $500-750k on the line to attract an exciting candidate with a HC experience.

I still can't believe the level of mediocrity people are willing to accept for MBB given our budget and us not being FBS.

(01-14-2019 08:30 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still can't believe the level of mediocrity people are willing to accept for MBB given our budget and us not being FBS.

Last I checked, our MBB budget isn't the highest in the conference. I think it's somewhere in the middle of the pack, but things could've changed since I last looked.

2 conference wins, are 2 conference wins. One was against a very solid team. Nice to win 2 in a row. I think the talent is there to be a contender with the right coach. Let's hope the trend continues.

(01-14-2019 09:06 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 08:30 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still can't believe the level of mediocrity people are willing to accept for MBB given our budget and us not being FBS.

Last I checked, our MBB budget isn't the highest in the conference. I think it's somewhere in the middle of the pack, but things could've changed since I last looked.

Big picture my friend, big picture. We spend way too much money, especially with the heavy reliance on student fees, to not play FBS football and have such a bad basketball team. One or the other may be justifiable, but not both at the level of our budget. You can look at just the basketball program in isolation if you it makes you feel better though.

(01-14-2019 10:29 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 09:06 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 08:30 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still can't believe the level of mediocrity people are willing to accept for MBB given our budget and us not being FBS.

Last I checked, our MBB budget isn't the highest in the conference. I think it's somewhere in the middle of the pack, but things could've changed since I last looked.

Big picture my friend, big picture. We spend way too much money, especially with the heavy reliance on student fees, to not play FBS football and have such a bad basketball team. One or the other may be justifiable, but not both at the level of our budget. You can look at just the basketball program in isolation if you it makes you feel better though.

I am so tired of the athletic budget complaint. We have a FB national title and runner up, woman's lax title, womans softball on a national level and a final 8 mens soccer team. The woman's basketball team is consistently in the top 75. All of our woman's programs are top of the conference. We have top notch facilities. That seems like a pretty good return on investment. What is the complaint? Mens hoops, Baseball and that we are not FBS?

We are making a $90 million investment in hoops that i believe will change those prospects.

Baseball showed some promise this year.

FBS - 1000 + thread on this

(01-14-2019 10:29 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 09:06 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 08:30 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still can't believe the level of mediocrity people are willing to accept for MBB given our budget and us not being FBS.

Last I checked, our MBB budget isn't the highest in the conference. I think it's somewhere in the middle of the pack, but things could've changed since I last looked.

Big picture my friend, big picture. We spend way too much money, especially with the heavy reliance on student fees, to not play FBS football and have such a bad basketball team. One or the other may be justifiable, but not both at the level of our budget. You can look at just the basketball program in isolation if you it makes you feel better though.

Not trying to argue student fees, fbs, or any of that. There's enough threads out there for that. Just adding info to that high athletic budget does not mean high basketball budget. Maybe that should change, I really don't know. Just wanted to put that info out there for anyone not aware.

I believe it's easy to get wrapped up in the who sucks and who's good numbers. The ultimate goal is dance in March, in the case of the one bid CAA, winning the CAAT is required. How you get there, your record, who you beat and by how much becomes irrelevant

It's clear to me:
JMU improves every week.
They are beginning to play the game the right way.
They are starting to buy into a system/mentality that coach is trying to sell.
IF (a huge unknown at this point) this talented team can put the pieces together, they could be very dangerous come March 9th.
JMU will never consistently "sell out" the new convo. We could go the final four and it isn't happening, not in Harrisonburg.

It's nice to see the Dukes playing well, but they're going to have to do more to convince me they've turned the corner. It seems like when I start believing in this team, they disappoint. I'm not buying it yet. If you think that there's no reason for pessimism, you clearly haven't been paying attention.


Here's a prediction: 5-7 the rest of the way. We will win the next two games and then go on a losing skid for at least 3 games. That will probably put us in the Keener Round. We'll win that game, but it'll be close and possibly even a buzzer beater. Then we play a good team and get crushed.

(01-14-2019 08:30 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still can't believe the level of mediocrity people are willing to accept for MBB given our budget and us not being FBS.

Nobody is satisfied with mediocrity but you have to be thoughtful/realistic and consider the bigger picture. Firing a coach in year 3 if that coach and his team do indeed show improvement from the first two years is not a good look. People complained about Brady’s dismissal after a 20 win season. It was met with some minor head scratching from people outside of JMU but Brady was here 8 years and had some of that off court baggage working against him so for people close to the program going another direction made sense.

There is no guarantee that the next coach ( if you have made your mind up and want to pull the plug on this one ) will have immediate success. If there were things outside the wins and losses (grades, suspensions, apathy from players, mass transfers out of core players) that gave you pause with this coach then his leash would be very short but there aren’t. Of course it is taking a long time and some will say for what to get back to where they were under Brady but if there are signs in year 3 you have to give Lou Rowe and the players at least year 4. This is fair and logical. It’s not accepting mediocrity it’s showing some restraint (restraint that fans don’t possess) for the bigger picture. Obviously the bellwether is how are you going into 20-21 and while Rowe is running out of time there is still time to be positioned there. Again I’m going to see how the season progresses- it looked like it could get away from them for a minute and it now looks like they are back on track.

The team is winning at home, which is a step in the right direction considering we went 7-7 last year. That needs to continue. Further progress for this program in terms of improvement is starting to win more frequently on the road.

We went 2-7 on the road vs CAA a year ago. We are 0-2 so far this year. We've had plenty of leads (some big) on the road but could not hold them and floundered late.

It's beyond time to start closing some of those games. Good opportunity this week. 2 roadies. I'm not expecting a sweep, though obviously it would be nice and is doable. But, walking away 0-2 is taking 2 steps backwards from any progress that's being made. At least need to go 1-1, IMO.

(01-14-2019 10:29 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 09:06 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 08:30 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still can't believe the level of mediocrity people are willing to accept for MBB given our budget and us not being FBS.

Last I checked, our MBB budget isn't the highest in the conference. I think it's somewhere in the middle of the pack, but things could've changed since I last looked.

Big picture my friend, big picture. We spend way too much money, especially with the heavy reliance on student fees, to not play FBS football and have such a bad basketball team. One or the other may be justifiable, but not both at the level of our budget. You can look at just the basketball program in isolation if you it makes you feel better though.

Here we go with the student fees crap again......who cares what the student fees are or for that matter what bucket it is put in. The only figure parents/student care about is the bottom line, what is the tuition to attend JMU for a semester. And any damn way you slice it JMU is a bargain for what is offered and degree programs when compared to other state schools in VA period.

while i am at it, i am tired of the thought that paying a higher salary for a hoops coach will guarantee success. plenty of coaches have stolen checks and been busts.

ask GMU how the $1 million a year they paid to Paul Hewitt for 5 years worked out. Funny, GT gave us Keener and gave GMU Hewitt, both busts. You recruit a Chris Bosh and you can cash in for years.

BTW, UNCC is 4-11 for all of you sanchez fans. Hey, it is only the first year, and he may yet turn it around, but he has not had instant success. if he had, Dukeman would have told us.

(01-14-2019 01:34 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  while i am at it, i am tired of the thought that paying a higher salary for a hoops coach will guarantee success. plenty of coaches have stolen checks and been busts.

ask GMU how the $1 million a year they paid to Paul Hewitt for 5 years worked out. Funny, GT gave us Keener and gave GMU Hewitt, both busts. You recruit a Chris Bosh and you can cash in for years.

BTW, UNCC is 4-11 for all of you sanchez fans. Hey, it is only the first year, and he may yet turn it around, but he has not had instant success. if he had, Dukeman would have told us.

Bingo, salary does not equate to success and W/L for a coach, just like recruiting stars don't guarantee W/L for players.

I mean Sanchez was annointed as a great coach by many on here (learning on the bench with Tony Bennett) but has looked awful at UNCC. I mean he lost to a Lou Rowe coached JMU team and folks claim Rowe is an awful in-game coach. And Lou managed to out-coach Sanchez on the road. I know that disappointed a lot of JMU folks on this board.

Good comeback and win. Really need to at least split on the road this week. We follow Drexel and Delaware with home games vs Northeastern, Hofstra and at Charleston.

Congrats to Darius Banks for being named player of the week.

(01-14-2019 12:35 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 08:30 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still can't believe the level of mediocrity people are willing to accept for MBB given our budget and us not being FBS.

Nobody is satisfied with mediocrity but you have to be thoughtful/realistic and consider the bigger picture. Firing a coach in year 3 if that coach and his team do indeed show improvement from the first two years is not a good look. People complained about Brady’s dismissal after a 20 win season. It was met with some minor head scratching from people outside of JMU but Brady was here 8 years and had some of that off court baggage working against him so for people close to the program going another direction made sense.

There is no guarantee that the next coach ( if you have made your mind up and want to pull the plug on this one ) will have immediate success. If there were things outside the wins and losses (grades, suspensions, apathy from players, mass transfers out of core players) that gave you pause with this coach then his leash would be very short but there aren’t. Of course it is taking a long time and some will say for what to get back to where they were under Brady but if there are signs in year 3 you have to give Lou Rowe and the players at least year 4. This is fair and logical. It’s not accepting mediocrity it’s showing some restraint (restraint that fans don’t possess) for the bigger picture. Obviously the bellwether is how are you going into 20-21 and while Rowe is running out of time there is still time to be positioned there. Again I’m going to see how the season progresses- it looked like it could get away from them for a minute and it now looks like they are back on track.

All fair points, but I've seen enough to know that we don't have the right guy leading the team, wonderful hyperbole and nicknames on this board aside. The longer we wait to pull the plug, the longer the turnaround will ultimately take. We're currently a .500 team in a conference ranked somewhere around #20 with wins over Bridgewater and EMU. Relative to our overall athletic budget, and you can argue our basketball budget isn't commensurate with our overall budget if you want, that's not ok and three years is plenty of time to improve on being a #300 RPI team (edit: especially for all the folks that keep claiming we have lots of "talent").