I fully expect this game to be a barnstormer.... Hawaii has an explosive offensive with a good QB, but their defense is bad, very bad. I saw them live against UCLA last year, and their defense was awful. Their offense looks better this year, but their defense doesn't look any better. Hawaii exploded to big leads against Colorado State and Navy, but their defense also allowed CSU and Navy to get back into those games.

The Rice offense should most certainly be able to move the ball with long, sustained drives. Cephus and Esukpa should both have big games, and one or both of the Rice QBs could finally emerge. If Stankavage wants to establish himself as the regular starter, I think he needs a big game against this bad Hawaii defense.

If the Rice secondary can at least sorta hold up against the run-and-shoot -- and I have confidence that this staff will at least have a decent plan (couldn't say that about Bailiff ball) -- this could be a game of defensive attrition. Special teams and turnovers will be critical, but I can see a better rested Rice defense doing a better job than a Hawaii defense that has completely crumbled from the exhaustion of smashmouth football in the second half. Even Navy was having success throwing against them late! This may be the first game where 'intellectual brutality' truly prevails. If it's a tight game in the 4thQ, I like Rice's chances of winning through sheer fortitude and toughness. The trick is disrupting Hawaii's offense early on.

Rice 40
Hawaii 34

just like your analysis,
although a little bit over optimistic.

(09-05-2018 12:37 AM)Bay Area Owl Wrote:  I fully expect this game to be a barnstormer.... Hawaii has an explosive offensive with a good QB, but their defense is bad, very bad. I saw them live against UCLA last year, and their defense was awful. Their offense looks better this year, but their defense doesn't look any better. Hawaii exploded to big leads against Colorado State and Navy, but their defense also allowed CSU and Navy to get back into those games.

The Rice offense should most certainly be able to move the ball with long, sustained drives. Cephus and Esukpa should both have big games, and one or both of the Rice QBs could finally emerge. If Stankavage wants to establish himself as the regular starter, I think he needs a big game against this bad Hawaii defense.

If the Rice secondary can at least sorta hold up against the run-and-shoot -- and I have confidence that this staff will at least have a decent plan (couldn't say that about Bailiff ball) -- this could be a game of defensive attrition. Special teams and turnovers will be critical, but I can see a better rested Rice defense doing a better job than a Hawaii defense that has completely crumbled from the exhaustion of smashmouth football in the second half. Even Navy was having success throwing against them late! This may be the first game where 'intellectual brutality' truly prevails. If it's a tight game in the 4thQ, I like Rice's chances of winning through sheer fortitude and toughness. The trick is disrupting Hawaii's offense early on.

Rice 40
Hawaii 34

I stayed up last Saturday watching the Hawaii- Navy game, and it wasn't close. If we can't pressure that quarterback, he'll shred our defense. They're quick. I hope we can run the ball. Our offense needs to keep possesIon.

In the end, this is a prediction thread, so I say 41-34, Hawaii. We've gone over there several times over the years and beaten good Hawaii teams, but our corners can't keep up unless there's a lot of pressure. They're better than I thought they'd be.

After last week I feel better about our team overall, just not against a team likey Hawaii. I do like our chances much better against Southern Mississippi and UTSA though.

I will say,

Hawaii 38
Rice 24

It breaks my OptimisticOwl™ heart but I'm going to predict 41-27 for Hawaii.

The UNT vs SMU game was available on WatchStadium. You could get it by going to their Twitter feed or FB (I prefer not to go to FB without wearing plastic gloves so didn’t actually look to see it there). Quality was good overall. Hopefully our game will show up and be available the same way.

I would rather see Rice commit 10 defensive pass interference penalties than give up 10 long TD passes. Remember guys, better to grab the WR than let him blow by you!

Most of us are predicting a game that is two TDs or less in margin. It won't take much in the way of "luck" to turn the predictions upside down...a dropped pass, a DB slipping. I just hope it is their WR dropping the pass, their DB slipping.

I want to see interceptions by our guys.

It's sad, but I see

Rice 35
Hawaii 52

Also, the Stadium streaming app has a free 1-week trial.

Hawaii is 81 in Massey after moving up 19 spots after beating Navy. Rice is 127.

ESPN has Hawaii with an 88.8% chance of winning.

(09-05-2018 10:23 AM)Antarius Wrote:  Hawaii is 81 in Massey after moving up 19 spots after beating Navy. Rice is 127.

ESPN has Hawaii with an 88.8% chance of winning.

Hmm, UNT and Marshall top 70?
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

55 -- 38 Hawaii.
Take the OVER.
In order to win, we'll have to dominate them upfront on offense and grind them down. But, if Navy couldn't do it, then I'm not optimistic that we will.

(09-05-2018 10:59 AM)Intellectual_Brutality Wrote:  

(09-05-2018 10:23 AM)Antarius Wrote:  Hawaii is 81 in Massey after moving up 19 spots after beating Navy. Rice is 127.

ESPN has Hawaii with an 88.8% chance of winning.

Hmm, UNT and Marshall top 70?
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

93 and 84. I use the FBS list

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2018/fbs/ratings

Guaranteed prediction:
Rice 33, High Wawa 28.
(*Guaranteed that it’s a prediction)
We get three scores each half and play keepaway so they only have time for two per.

Unfortunately, Thornton, who has looked like our best CB so far, will be out this game with a "head injury."

My prediction may be optimistic, but I am basing it on my belief that even when having a good year, Hawaii is always something of a paper tiger. Punch them in the face, and they can thrown off their game. I don't ever think of Hawaii as a mentally tough team --their recruits chose Hawaii for a reason-- and if Rice can be disruptive (long scoring drives that wear down their bad defense; opportunistic plays on defense) the Owls have a good chance.

Hawaii's QB Cole McDonald has been playing mistake-free (no fumbles or interceptions), but a key part of the Owl defensive strategy should be to disrupt his game. He's still inexperienced, and he may not respond to adversity. Their receivers are small, so Rice should jam them off the line. You can't sit back against the run-and-shoot; you have to attack and disrupt.

Hawaii was leading Colorado State 37-7, but they let Colorado State claw back to a 40-34 game. Hawaii was leading Navy 35-7 late in the 2Q, but triple-option Navy got back within 10 points to 45-35. Hawaii's 'softness' is a flaw Rice needs to exploit.

CSU even out-gained Hawaii with 653 yards. Navy racked up 441 total yards on Hawaii with 326 rushing yards, and our power running game is more wearing on a defense than the triple option.

Without a doubt, the Rice QB (Stankavage or Tyner) will have to step up in this game and be highly productive, but this is an easy defense to be productive against. The Rice QB will need to pass well, but Hawaii gives up lots of passing yards.

You've obviously put more thought into this, and that makes me more optimistic. Thornton being out is a big blow though.

(09-05-2018 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Most of us are predicting a game that is two TDs or less in margin. It won't take much in the way of "luck" to turn the predictions upside down...a dropped pass, a DB slipping. I just hope it is their WR dropping the pass, their DB slipping.

I want to see interceptions by our guys.

I like the idea of their DB slipping more than our DB clapping.

Bloomgren so far has been more of a bulldog than a clapper, and flying east-to-West is always easier than the reverse. Hope we find a way to go North-to-South a lot this weekend. Don't think Hawalefteee is as good or talented as Houstless was last week. While we might not have as much of the element of "surprise," I think we have a shot at stealing this one. Hope Coach Bloomgren has a few more tricks in the playbook than we've yet shown, and hope he figures out how to light enough of a fire under the secondary to plug a few holes enough to get over. I think Rice can win, but have no idea of the score.

I went out on a limb in another thread earlier this week saying that we could win this game. I'm sticking to my guns.... Rice 41 Hawaii 38.