W&M
Not looking ahead to this one, I just know I won't be able to post a preview thread for this game tomorrow; making a trip to NYC this weekend and will be missing the game entirely (except what I can watch on my phone), I'm afraid!
CAA Standings
1. NU 7-2 (# 76 RPI)
2. W&M 6-3 (# 77)
Charleston 6-3 (# 110)
4. Hofstra 5-4 (# 107)
Towson 5-4 (# 85)
6. Elon 4-5 (# 144)
Delaware 4-5 (# 227)
UNCW 4-5 (# 270)
9. JMU 2-7 (# 259)
Drexel 2-7 (# 305)
Efficiency Rankings (kenpom.com)
UNCW
Adjusted Offense: # 203 (of 351)
Adjusted Defense: # 319
Overall: # 269
W&M
Adjusted Offense: # 39
Adjusted Defense: # 331
Overall: # 174
Projected Starters
PG: David Cohn (r-Sr.): 13.7 ppg, 6.3 apg, .471 3-pt %, 1.4 spg
G: Matt Milon (r-So.): 14.5 ppg, .491 3-pt %, .889 FT %
G: Connor Burchfield (Sr.): 12.0 ppg, .514 3-pt %, .895 FT %
F: Justin Pierce (So.): 12.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, .878 FT %
F: Nathan Knight (So.): 19.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.4 bpg
Offensive efficiency is a trait that Tony Shaver has stressed throughout his tenure as W&M's head coach. It's what the program hangs it's hat on. By spreading the court and either nailing threes or getting easy layups off backdoor cuts, Shaver was a bit ahead of the curve when it came to the analytics game. The NBA adopted the "Three or layup" philosophy first, basically doing away with the mid-range jumper. It's spread to the college game too, where Shaver had already set up shot years before.
So it should be the ultimate compliment to suggest that this Tribe team has the potential to be his best overall offense yet. Sitting 38th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while sporting a starting lineup with three sophomores whose ceilings keep climbing higher and higher, this 2017-18 Tribe are built to match Shaver's vision.
The more basic numbers further back this up. The Tribe ranked 1st in the league in all three shooting categories; Field goal (.508), three-point (.445), and free throw (.807) percentages. And their lead in all three categories is fairly massive. 10 players in the CAA are shooting above .500; the Tribe have 4 of them. The Tribe have the three best 3-point shooters in the league (Burchfield, Milon, Cohn) and the 2 best Free throw shooters (Cohn, Pierce). On top of all that, W&M are # 1 in the league in Assist:TO ratio (1.4).
The good news is that as good as W&M is on offense, they are not very efficient on defense overall. They rank last in FG % defense (.485), though they do a decent job of defending the 3, where they rank 4th (.351), and because of the presence of Nathan Knight, the # 2 shot blocker in the league, they also do a good job of protecting the rim as long as he's on the floor. But they're 9th in turnover margin (-1.63).
Needless to say, we can expect a high scoring game. It will be very interesting to see what Vegas sets the O/U at.
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