STL_Wave
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
Flip these 7 and we end up #2 this year:
ECU v JMU
Tulsa v Toledo
Tulsa v New Mexico
Houston v Fresno
Temple v Army
Navy v Army
Tulane v FIU
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01-16-2018 11:51 AM |
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HHOOTter
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 10:52 AM)STL_Wave Wrote: (01-16-2018 10:19 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote: That would be 49-8. That would be Killer.
This year the SEC went 49-15 and ended with the 2nd highest winning % OOC. Here are the the top 7:
Big 10 39-11 0.755563
SEC 49-15 0.691916
ACC 43-21 0.636098
Big 12 25-13 0.629234
Pac-12 29-16 0.606341
American 29-22 0.522624
MWC 24-31 0.408332
So to answer the OP, we'd have to have a winning % somewhere around 63%, going something like 35/36 - 22/21.
Sweeping FCS gets us 12 (SEC and ACC both had 13 FCS wins this year!). 17 more games against G5+UMASS+Army. We gotta win at least 14 of those. That leaves:
Cincy@UCLA
UNC@ECU
ECU@VT
Temple@MD
Temple@BC
UCF@UNC
Pitt@UCF
UCONN@Syracuse
GT@USF
USF@Illinois
ZONA@Houston
Memphis@Mizzou
ND v Navy
TCU@SMU
SMU@Michigan
Wake @ Tulane
Tulane @ Ohio State
Tulsa @ Texas
Tulsa @ Arkansas.
I see maybe 5-7 wins there, at best. We need at least 9.
So would it be possible? Sure. Go undefeated against FCS, 14-3 against G5/UMASS/Army, and 9-10 against P5/ND.
That gets us to 35-22. That would be essentially the same results Big12 had this year.
The AAC OOC schedules offer great possibilities
But, Until the AAC teams "collectively" win
50% of their OOC games vs P5 opponents
In f-ball AAC will NEVER B ranked
in the Top 5 as one of the best f-ball conferences
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01-16-2018 12:53 PM |
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STL_Wave
1st String
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 12:53 PM)HHOOTter Wrote: (01-16-2018 10:52 AM)STL_Wave Wrote: (01-16-2018 10:19 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote: That would be 49-8. That would be Killer.
This year the SEC went 49-15 and ended with the 2nd highest winning % OOC. Here are the the top 7:
Big 10 39-11 0.755563
SEC 49-15 0.691916
ACC 43-21 0.636098
Big 12 25-13 0.629234
Pac-12 29-16 0.606341
American 29-22 0.522624
MWC 24-31 0.408332
So to answer the OP, we'd have to have a winning % somewhere around 63%, going something like 35/36 - 22/21.
Sweeping FCS gets us 12 (SEC and ACC both had 13 FCS wins this year!). 17 more games against G5+UMASS+Army. We gotta win at least 14 of those. That leaves:
Cincy@UCLA
UNC@ECU
ECU@VT
Temple@MD
Temple@BC
UCF@UNC
Pitt@UCF
UCONN@Syracuse
GT@USF
USF@Illinois
ZONA@Houston
Memphis@Mizzou
ND v Navy
TCU@SMU
SMU@Michigan
Wake @ Tulane
Tulane @ Ohio State
Tulsa @ Texas
Tulsa @ Arkansas.
I see maybe 5-7 wins there, at best. We need at least 9.
So would it be possible? Sure. Go undefeated against FCS, 14-3 against G5/UMASS/Army, and 9-10 against P5/ND.
That gets us to 35-22. That would be essentially the same results Big12 had this year.
The AAC OOC schedules offer great possibilities
But, Until the AAC teams "collectively" win
50% of their OOC games vs P5 opponents
In f-ball AAC will NEVER B ranked
in the Top 5 as one of the best f-ball conferences
Yup.
Versus p5:
Big10: 14-6
SEC: 10-12
ACC: 10-14
Big12: 8-8
Pac12: 7-9
American: 7-11
Honestly, the league is already even with the p5. It's gonna take being a top 2 conference to be taken seriously. It's ****** but that's just what it is. That means being held to a higher standard than the ACC/Big12/Pac12. Winning on the road, going undefeated to g4, and winning the NY6 for about 3/5 years in a row.
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01-16-2018 03:27 PM |
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TU4ever
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 11:51 AM)STL_Wave Wrote: Flip these 7 and we end up #2 this year:
ECU v JMU
Tulsa v Toledo
Tulsa v New Mexico
Houston v Fresno
Temple v Army
Navy v Army
Tulane v FIU
We'll get it together this year. . . Stupid last second field goals
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01-16-2018 05:02 PM |
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slhNavy91
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 05:02 PM)TU4ever Wrote: (01-16-2018 11:51 AM)STL_Wave Wrote: Flip these 7 and we end up #2 this year:
ECU v JMU
Tulsa v Toledo
Tulsa v New Mexico
Houston v Fresno
Temple v Army
Navy v Army
Tulane v FIU
We'll get it together this year. . . Stupid last second field goals
...Stupid double false starts before last second field goals
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01-16-2018 09:49 PM |
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YNot
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 10:47 AM)fanhood Wrote: Since we are doing ridiculously way too early predictions. I will play. Keep in mind, this is early, and we have no idea which Freshman are going to play, JC transfer etc.
Cincy 2-2
09/01 - at UCLA - L
09/08 - at Miami (OH) (at Paul Brown Stadium) - W
09/15 - Alabama A&M - W
09/22 - Ohio - L
ECU 2-2
09/01 - North Carolina A&T - W
09/08 - North Carolina - L
09/15 - at Virginia Tech - L
09/29 - Old Dominion - W
Temple 2-2
09/01 - Villanova - W
09/08 - Buffalo - W
09/15 - at Maryland - L
09/29 - at Boston College - L
UCF 4-0
09/15 - at North Carolina - W
09/22 - Florida Atlantic - W
09/29 - Pittsburgh - W
TBA - South Carolina State - W
UCONN 1-3
09/08 - at Boise State - L
09/15 - Rhode Island - W
09/29 - at Syracuse - L
10/27 - Mass - L
USF 2-2
09/01 - Elon - W
09/08 - Georgia Tech - L
09/15 - at Illinois (at Chicago, IL) - W
10/06 - at Mass - L
Houston 3-1
09/01 - at Rice - W
09/08 - Arizona - W
09/15 - at Texas Tech - L
09/29 - Texas Southern - W
Memphis 3-1
09/01 - Mercer - W
09/15 - Georgia State - W
09/22 - South Alabama - W
10/20 - at Missouri - L
Navy 3-2
09/01 - at Hawaii - W
09/15 - Lehigh - W
10/06 - at Air Force - W
10/27 - Notre Dame (at San Diego, CA) - L
12/08 - Army (Philadelphia, PA) - L
SMU 2-2
9/01 - at North Texas - L
09/08 - TCU - L
09/15 - at Michigan - L
09/22 - Houston Baptist - W
Tulane 2-2
08/30 - Wake Forest - L
09/08 - Nicholls State - W
09/15 - at UAB - W
09/22 - at Ohio State - L
Tulsa 2-2
09/01 - Central Arkansas - W
09/08 - at Texas - L
09/15 - Arkansas State - W
10/20 - at Arkansas - L
FWIW, this predicts 26-22 overall record. 23-6 in the "must win" games and 3-16 against the P5.
Personally, I think Memphis beats Missouri, Temple beats one of Maryland or Boston College, Houston beats Texas Tech - but loses to Arizona, USF beats UMass, and SMU beats N. Texas.
So, the prediction is 30-18 or 62.5%. 25-4 in the "must win" games and 5-14 v. the P5. The should be enough to beat out the PAC 12 and could be enough to finish just ahead of either the ACC or B12 to crack the top-4. Good times.
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01-17-2018 02:29 PM |
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TU4ever
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-17-2018 02:29 PM)YNot Wrote: (01-16-2018 10:47 AM)fanhood Wrote: Since we are doing ridiculously way too early predictions. I will play. Keep in mind, this is early, and we have no idea which Freshman are going to play, JC transfer etc.
Cincy 2-2
09/01 - at UCLA - L
09/08 - at Miami (OH) (at Paul Brown Stadium) - W
09/15 - Alabama A&M - W
09/22 - Ohio - L
ECU 2-2
09/01 - North Carolina A&T - W
09/08 - North Carolina - L
09/15 - at Virginia Tech - L
09/29 - Old Dominion - W
Temple 2-2
09/01 - Villanova - W
09/08 - Buffalo - W
09/15 - at Maryland - L
09/29 - at Boston College - L
UCF 4-0
09/15 - at North Carolina - W
09/22 - Florida Atlantic - W
09/29 - Pittsburgh - W
TBA - South Carolina State - W
UCONN 1-3
09/08 - at Boise State - L
09/15 - Rhode Island - W
09/29 - at Syracuse - L
10/27 - Mass - L
USF 2-2
09/01 - Elon - W
09/08 - Georgia Tech - L
09/15 - at Illinois (at Chicago, IL) - W
10/06 - at Mass - L
Houston 3-1
09/01 - at Rice - W
09/08 - Arizona - W
09/15 - at Texas Tech - L
09/29 - Texas Southern - W
Memphis 3-1
09/01 - Mercer - W
09/15 - Georgia State - W
09/22 - South Alabama - W
10/20 - at Missouri - L
Navy 3-2
09/01 - at Hawaii - W
09/15 - Lehigh - W
10/06 - at Air Force - W
10/27 - Notre Dame (at San Diego, CA) - L
12/08 - Army (Philadelphia, PA) - L
SMU 2-2
9/01 - at North Texas - L
09/08 - TCU - L
09/15 - at Michigan - L
09/22 - Houston Baptist - W
Tulane 2-2
08/30 - Wake Forest - L
09/08 - Nicholls State - W
09/15 - at UAB - W
09/22 - at Ohio State - L
Tulsa 2-2
09/01 - Central Arkansas - W
09/08 - at Texas - L
09/15 - Arkansas State - W
10/20 - at Arkansas - L
FWIW, this predicts 26-22 overall record. 23-6 in the "must win" games and 3-16 against the P5.
Personally, I think Memphis beats Missouri, Temple beats one of Maryland or Boston College, Houston beats Texas Tech - but loses to Arizona, USF beats UMass, and SMU beats N. Texas.
So, the prediction is 30-18 or 62.5%. 25-4 in the "must win" games and 5-14 v. the P5. The should be enough to beat out the PAC 12 and could be enough to finish just ahead of either the ACC or B12 to crack the top-4. Good times.
I think you can add Cincy over Ohio as well, also UConn over Umass. So 27-2 in must wins plus there is a toss up with navy vs army. Either of our predicted records is in line with past AAC performances vs non p6.
I also think the following games vs p6 could go our way.
Cincy vs UCLA, ECU vs UNC, UConn vs Syracuse, Tulane vs Wake Forrest.
Long shots USF at home vs Georgia tech (early though with no Flowers) ND vs Navy (San Diego is a huge navy area, rivalry).
Next year we could be competing for a top 4 spot we could also be 6th again.
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01-17-2018 03:51 PM |
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Bearcats#1
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
sorry folks but next year UC isn't going to be a whole lot better
this is a three year rebuild...and that's best case
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01-17-2018 07:56 PM |
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TU4ever
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-17-2018 07:56 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote: sorry folks but next year UC isn't going to be a whole lot better
this is a three year rebuild...and that's best case
I agree but UCLA is year one of chip and a nfl level qb down. So I'd give you a shot in that one. I also think you are plenty capable of beating Ohio and Miami, oh so I think 2-2 or 3-1 with some luck.
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01-17-2018 08:00 PM |
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