I guess he saw the polls out of Oceanside. This will be a likely pickup for the Dems. There's no Republican in the race yet. I'm sure they'll find someone, but I doubt it would be a top tier candidate. He follows Royce. Next up, Rohrabacher, Walters, and Calvert.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/1...res-333157

At this rate, Southern California is going to be all Dem soon. Including Orange County.

----

BTW, its possible that Duncan Hunter (who is in one of the safest GOP seats in California) will be under criminal indictment by the election (I think he survives - for now). By this time next year, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, Los Angeles, Ventura, and Imperial Counties could have all Dem delegations. 30 Congressional Districts. 0 Republicans. That's probably a bit of a reach. I think that they'll probably be left with a 29-1 or 28-2 margin.


And this isn't the proximate result of gerrymandering. At the time of redistricting, 12 of the 30 districts were either even or leaning GOP.

I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

Democrat wins seat in California. It's a revolution. Lmao

(01-10-2018 12:09 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

Republican Senators retiring

Flake - AZ
Corker - TN
Hatch - UT

Democrat held open seats

None.

Open Republican Congressional districts

Goodlatte - VA (reasonably safe for the GOP)
Hansarling - TX (reasonably safe for the GOP)
Issa - CA (likely DEM pickup)
Barton - TX (leans slightly to the GOP)
Smith - TX (leans slightly to the GOP)
Ros-Lehtinen - FL (safe DEM pickup)
Dent - PA (true toss up)
Reichart - WA (likely DEM pickup)
Tiberi - OH (leans GOP)
LoBiondo - NJ (leans DEM)
Jenkins - KS (safe GOP)
Johnson - TX (safe GOP)
Duncan - TN (safe GOP)
Poe - TX (leans slightly to GOP)
Trott - MI (likely DEM pickup)
Murphy - PA (special election pending)
Franks - AZ (safe GOP)
Farenthold - TX (likely GOP)
Shuster -PA (safe GOP)
Harper - MS (safe GOP)
Royce - CA (likely DEM pickup)
- the following are running for another office
Black - TN (safe GOP)
Messer - IN (safe GOP)
Rokita - IN (safe GOP)
Pearse - NM (likely GOP)
Labrador - ID (safe GOP)
Renacci - OH (safe GOP)
Barletta - PA (safe GOP)
Noem - SD (safe GOP)
Jenkins - WV (safe GOP)
McSally - AZ (leans slightly DEM)

Open Dem seats

Kihuen - NV (leans DEM)
Green - TX (safe DEM)
Tsongas - MA (safe DEM)
Shea-Porter - NH (leans slightly DEM)
Levin - MI (safe DEM)
Conyers - MI (safe DEM)
Giutierrez - IL (safe DEM)
---the following are running for another office
Sinema - AZ (likely DEM)
Polis - CO (safe DEM)
Walz - MN (likely GOP)
O'Rourke - TX (safe DEM)
Delaney - MD (safe DEM)
Rosen - NV (leans slightly DEM)
Hanabusa - HI (safe DEM)
Grisham - NM (safe DEM)

Basically, the Dems are underdogs in the Walz seat, and will have to fight for Shea-Porter's, Rosen's, and Kihuen's seats.

The GOP are underdogs in 7 seats, and will need to fight for 4 more.

Diane Harkey is is going to run for Issa's seat.

Rumors floating that Crawford AR-1 may retire. Well drawn district for GOP by adding some of the hill counties to balance out the delta, used to be an all delta district and solidly blue. If it comes open and Dems have a good candidate it could be in play.

(01-10-2018 12:51 PM)shere khan Wrote:  Democrat wins seat in California. It's a revolution. Lmao

Yeah, I'm struggling to figure out how this changes anything.

(01-10-2018 01:14 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(01-10-2018 12:09 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

Republican Senators retiring

Flake - AZ
Corker - TN
Hatch - UT

Democrat held open seats

None.

Open Republican Congressional districts

Goodlatte - VA (reasonably safe for the GOP)
Hansarling - TX (reasonably safe for the GOP)
Issa - CA (likely DEM pickup)
Barton - TX (leans slightly to the GOP)
Smith - TX (leans slightly to the GOP)
Ros-Lehtinen - FL (safe DEM pickup)
Dent - PA (true toss up)
Reichart - WA (likely DEM pickup)
Tiberi - OH (leans GOP)
LoBiondo - NJ (leans DEM)
Jenkins - KS (safe GOP)
Johnson - TX (safe GOP)
Duncan - TN (safe GOP)
Poe - TX (leans slightly to GOP)
Trott - MI (likely DEM pickup)
Murphy - PA (special election pending)
Franks - AZ (safe GOP)
Farenthold - TX (likely GOP)
Shuster -PA (safe GOP)
Harper - MS (safe GOP)
Royce - CA (likely DEM pickup)
- the following are running for another office
Black - TN (safe GOP)
Messer - IN (safe GOP)
Rokita - IN (safe GOP)
Pearse - NM (likely GOP)
Labrador - ID (safe GOP)
Renacci - OH (safe GOP)
Barletta - PA (safe GOP)
Noem - SD (safe GOP)
Jenkins - WV (safe GOP)
McSally - AZ (leans slightly DEM)

Open Dem seats

Kihuen - NV (leans DEM)
Green - TX (safe DEM)
Tsongas - MA (safe DEM)
Shea-Porter - NH (leans slightly DEM)
Levin - MI (safe DEM)
Conyers - MI (safe DEM)
Giutierrez - IL (safe DEM)
---the following are running for another office
Sinema - AZ (likely DEM)
Polis - CO (safe DEM)
Walz - MN (likely GOP)
O'Rourke - TX (safe DEM)
Delaney - MD (safe DEM)
Rosen - NV (leans slightly DEM)
Hanabusa - HI (safe DEM)
Grisham - NM (safe DEM)

Basically, the Dems are underdogs in the Walz seat, and will have to fight for Shea-Porter's, Rosen's, and Kihuen's seats.

The GOP are underdogs in 7 seats, and will need to fight for 4 more.

And no way Trump beats Hillary.. Unicorns and fairy dust.

(01-10-2018 01:38 PM)shere khan Wrote:  And no way Trump beats Hillary.. Unicorns and fairy dust.

Run, Hillary, Run! This time, you’ll make it.

(01-10-2018 12:09 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

Mid terms always tend to be challenging for the party in the white house.... Look at how many Seats Obama lost in 2010... 11 Democratic house critters and 4 Democratic senators retired.

One seat that won't make much difference with who they have now is the one that McCain will leave. He's pretty much a war-mongering, liberal thinking Rino. Wouldn't it be something for Libturd brains to explode if Arpaio won that seat. You think Libs are going ape now imagine if he did win a senate seat. LOL

I can't wait.

From a personal standpoint, I'm happy as heck Issa is retiring. He was gunning after our company big time, trying to shut it down.

(01-10-2018 01:39 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(01-10-2018 12:09 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

Mid terms always tend to be challenging for the party in the white house.... Look at how many Seats Obama lost in 2010... 11 Democratic house critters and 4 Democratic senators retired.

I think the last 3 have lost a bunch of seats.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using CSNbbs mobile app

(01-10-2018 11:40 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I guess he saw the polls out of Oceanside. This will be a likely pickup for the Dems. There's no Republican in the race yet. I'm sure they'll find someone, but I doubt it would be a top tier candidate. He follows Royce. Next up, Rohrabacher, Walters, and Calvert.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/1...res-333157

At this rate, Southern California is going to be all Dem soon. Including Orange County.

----

BTW, its possible that Duncan Hunter (who is in one of the safest GOP seats in California) will be under criminal indictment by the election (I think he survives - for now). By this time next year, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, Los Angeles, Ventura, and Imperial Counties could have all Dem delegations. 30 Congressional Districts. 0 Republicans. That's probably a bit of a reach. I think that they'll probably be left with a 29-1 or 28-2 margin.


And this isn't the proximate result of gerrymandering. At the time of redistricting, 12 of the 30 districts were either even or leaning GOP.

The Republicans have been "gerrymandered" to Arizona and Texas.

Democrat tears are always sweetest after they lie to themselves for 11 months.

(01-11-2018 08:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-10-2018 11:40 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I guess he saw the polls out of Oceanside. This will be a likely pickup for the Dems. There's no Republican in the race yet. I'm sure they'll find someone, but I doubt it would be a top tier candidate. He follows Royce. Next up, Rohrabacher, Walters, and Calvert.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/1...res-333157

At this rate, Southern California is going to be all Dem soon. Including Orange County.

----

BTW, its possible that Duncan Hunter (who is in one of the safest GOP seats in California) will be under criminal indictment by the election (I think he survives - for now). By this time next year, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, Los Angeles, Ventura, and Imperial Counties could have all Dem delegations. 30 Congressional Districts. 0 Republicans. That's probably a bit of a reach. I think that they'll probably be left with a 29-1 or 28-2 margin.


And this isn't the proximate result of gerrymandering. At the time of redistricting, 12 of the 30 districts were either even or leaning GOP.

The Republicans have been "gerrymandered" to Arizona and Texas.

Actually, those "Republicans" moving to Arizona and Texas are part of the reason why there are 11 GOP held congressional districts in those two states that are in play. We won't pick up all of them. But I think 5 of them will flip.

(01-10-2018 01:39 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(01-10-2018 01:38 PM)shere khan Wrote:  And no way Trump beats Hillary.. Unicorns and fairy dust.

Run, Hillary, Run! This time, you’ll make it.

Wonder if Hillary will go after that Arkansas congressional seat if it come open ?

(01-11-2018 01:01 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Wonder if Hillary will go after that Arkansas congressional seat if it come open

I thought she was from Illinois Arkansas New York?