(01-10-2018 12:09 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

(01-10-2018 12:51 PM)shere khan Wrote:  Democrat wins seat in California. It's a revolution. Lmao

(01-10-2018 01:14 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(01-10-2018 12:09 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

Republican Senators retiring

Flake - AZ
Corker - TN
Hatch - UT

Democrat held open seats

None.

Open Republican Congressional districts

Goodlatte - VA (reasonably safe for the GOP)
Hansarling - TX (reasonably safe for the GOP)
Issa - CA (likely DEM pickup)
Barton - TX (leans slightly to the GOP)
Smith - TX (leans slightly to the GOP)
Ros-Lehtinen - FL (safe DEM pickup)
Dent - PA (true toss up)
Reichart - WA (likely DEM pickup)
Tiberi - OH (leans GOP)
LoBiondo - NJ (leans DEM)
Jenkins - KS (safe GOP)
Johnson - TX (safe GOP)
Duncan - TN (safe GOP)
Poe - TX (leans slightly to GOP)
Trott - MI (likely DEM pickup)
Murphy - PA (special election pending)
Franks - AZ (safe GOP)
Farenthold - TX (likely GOP)
Shuster -PA (safe GOP)
Harper - MS (safe GOP)
Royce - CA (likely DEM pickup)
- the following are running for another office
Black - TN (safe GOP)
Messer - IN (safe GOP)
Rokita - IN (safe GOP)
Pearse - NM (likely GOP)
Labrador - ID (safe GOP)
Renacci - OH (safe GOP)
Barletta - PA (safe GOP)
Noem - SD (safe GOP)
Jenkins - WV (safe GOP)
McSally - AZ (leans slightly DEM)

Open Dem seats

Kihuen - NV (leans DEM)
Green - TX (safe DEM)
Tsongas - MA (safe DEM)
Shea-Porter - NH (leans slightly DEM)
Levin - MI (safe DEM)
Conyers - MI (safe DEM)
Giutierrez - IL (safe DEM)
---the following are running for another office
Sinema - AZ (likely DEM)
Polis - CO (safe DEM)
Walz - MN (likely GOP)
O'Rourke - TX (safe DEM)
Delaney - MD (safe DEM)
Rosen - NV (leans slightly DEM)
Hanabusa - HI (safe DEM)
Grisham - NM (safe DEM)

Basically, the Dems are underdogs in the Walz seat, and will have to fight for Shea-Porter's, Rosen's, and Kihuen's seats.

The GOP are underdogs in 7 seats, and will need to fight for 4 more.

(01-10-2018 01:38 PM)shere khan Wrote:  And no way Trump beats Hillary.. Unicorns and fairy dust.

(01-10-2018 12:09 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

(01-10-2018 01:39 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(01-10-2018 12:09 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  I think that makes four Republicans now that are retiring. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall.

Mid terms always tend to be challenging for the party in the white house.... Look at how many Seats Obama lost in 2010... 11 Democratic house critters and 4 Democratic senators retired.

(01-10-2018 11:40 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I guess he saw the polls out of Oceanside. This will be a likely pickup for the Dems. There's no Republican in the race yet. I'm sure they'll find someone, but I doubt it would be a top tier candidate. He follows Royce. Next up, Rohrabacher, Walters, and Calvert.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/10/issa-retires-333157

At this rate, Southern California is going to be all Dem soon. Including Orange County.

----

BTW, its possible that Duncan Hunter (who is in one of the safest GOP seats in California) will be under criminal indictment by the election (I think he survives - for now). By this time next year, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, Los Angeles, Ventura, and Imperial Counties could have all Dem delegations. 30 Congressional Districts. 0 Republicans. That's probably a bit of a reach. I think that they'll probably be left with a 29-1 or 28-2 margin.


And this isn't the proximate result of gerrymandering. At the time of redistricting, 12 of the 30 districts were either even or leaning GOP.

(01-11-2018 08:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-10-2018 11:40 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I guess he saw the polls out of Oceanside. This will be a likely pickup for the Dems. There's no Republican in the race yet. I'm sure they'll find someone, but I doubt it would be a top tier candidate. He follows Royce. Next up, Rohrabacher, Walters, and Calvert.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/10/issa-retires-333157

At this rate, Southern California is going to be all Dem soon. Including Orange County.

----

BTW, its possible that Duncan Hunter (who is in one of the safest GOP seats in California) will be under criminal indictment by the election (I think he survives - for now). By this time next year, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, Los Angeles, Ventura, and Imperial Counties could have all Dem delegations. 30 Congressional Districts. 0 Republicans. That's probably a bit of a reach. I think that they'll probably be left with a 29-1 or 28-2 margin.


And this isn't the proximate result of gerrymandering. At the time of redistricting, 12 of the 30 districts were either even or leaning GOP.

The Republicans have been "gerrymandered" to Arizona and Texas.

(01-10-2018 01:39 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(01-10-2018 01:38 PM)shere khan Wrote:  And no way Trump beats Hillary.. Unicorns and fairy dust.

Run, Hillary, Run! This time, you’ll make it.

(01-11-2018 01:01 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Wonder if Hillary will go after that Arkansas congressional seat if it come open