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If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #31
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
(01-08-2018 04:45 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Lots of good stuff here. JR and I have discussed this before and I highly respect his thoughts and others. Personally, I do not care where the Big12 teams go, but I think it would be best for all concerned if the the P5 went to four conferences.

It is my belief that Texas will not move to the SEC unless the stars align against them....or as JR has suggested ESPN works some magic. I must say though that Texas is use to having their way and they do not like being pushed. Plus they have a ton of money. They do not seem to like the SEC culture and right or wrong, they appear to frown on their academics. I know the arguments about some the Big12 schools etc. Most importantly, I do not think they will follow A&M anywhere. Texas has a lot of pride in who they are and rightly so.

If Texas is willing to change conferences, and I believe they will, then I think that the realignment battle will be between the Big10 and the PAC. I can see OU, KU, Texas and one other (Missouri?) to the Big10. Also, I can see OU, OSU, Texas, Tech and possibly KU and KSU to the PAC.

The Big10 could offer a West Division made up of Texas, OU, KU, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern and Wisconsin. The newbies would be playing in six states they have a history with. The PAC could offer a six team POD or an East Division that would negate travel concerns.

If Texas does not want to move, for various reasons, that changes things.

I am not sure about OU and KU to the Big. Would OU want to leave both OSU and Texas behind. Would the Big want just those two.

Would the PAC take OU, OSU, Tech etc. without Texas. Considering their current situation they might.

If the above options failed then the SEC could invite OU and OSU together, plus just about anyone else they wanted. In that event OU might have to decide whether to go to the BIG sans OSU and Texas or to the SEC with OSU.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next few years.

I think the only legitimate shot the Big 10 has at Texas is with a foursome move to 18 and I don't think that's all that legitimate either.

But if they wanted to make the offer then Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and likely Iowa State would be the play. Missouri doesn't have a grant of rights with the SEC but they have one through the SEC with ESPN. I would have to think that any move that saw Texas leaving for a non ESPN held conference would have to have their approval and the LHN contract isn't up until the end of the 2031 season. And that's the big catch. If Texas wants to move earlier than 2023 (when they could give a two year notice to the Big 12 or when enough schools might vote for dissolution) it will be to either the SEC or ACC unless the PACN sells out to ESPN. IMO, that is the only move that could free a large contingent of the Big 12 to move West.

Oklahoma and Kansas both will see the last year of their T3 when it's time to make a decision so they will be free agents.

With Disney's new clout I wouldn't rule their magic out. UT has always publicly looked down their snouts at the SEC, but they have always privately kept an open door exchange of information with regards to general business and possible affiliation.

But for the SEC the game is Oklahoma. With Oklahoma, L.S.U., and Texas A&M there isn't much in Texas they can't reach in strength. The attainment of Oklahoma also insures that no matter what the other schools do the SEC will remain at the top in revenue generated and branding. So that alone makes O.S.U. viable and it is something that ESPN talking heads have been alluding to for the past 2 years.

I'm sure the Big 10 will make their push and it will be a strong one, but the one thing they can't do is take OSU, or TTU for that matter.

Their handicap is that they also can't take enough Big 12 schools to make travel easy or to offer a lot of friendly faces, and Nebraska and Texas have hardly been cordial.

But all of this is why Texas and Oklahoma have dug their heels in for so long. They really could have a division of their own with the PAC, but the PAC can't pay them more because the PAC makes 7 million less per school than the Big 12 does right now.

Texas really doesn't have a push for the Big 10 and the travel and sports culture are not that compatible. Texas loves Softball and Baseball and Swimming & Diving and outside of Michigan the Big 10 doesn't do much with swimming. Oklahoma loves gymnastics, baseball & softball. So the Big 10 isn't that exciting a prospect for their A.D.'s. Their faculty might love it, but it would be a difficult sell athletically.

If they don't want the SEC they don't really have a good option and that is why the inertia has been there all along. But inertia is a slow death for two proud programs.

I'll give you this, the decision will be epic and there are no clear cut winners. That's why I think business will decide the matter. Where can their fans access the games easily, where do their sports fit best, what foes best sell out their venues, and where can they at least earn more through the move.

So, we wait. But probably for not much longer.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2018 05:31 PM by JRsec.)
01-08-2018 05:27 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #32
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
(01-08-2018 05:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Missouri doesn't have a grant of rights with the SEC but they have one through the SEC with ESPN.

How long does this last?
01-08-2018 05:43 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #33
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
I can’t see the SEC taking Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, or any other “little brother”. The revenue is so large in the SEC that they literally cannot afford any further “fat” or “package deal” in further expansion. Every school added either needs to be a large new market or a huge national brand name (e.g. Texas). I’d say the same for the Big Ten.

The Pac-12 is much more likely for the OP scenario if only for the fact that they’ve put a full package deal offer on the table previously that includes little brothers coming along. The fact that the Pac-12 makes less revenue per team along with having only 12 members (as opposed to 14) right now makes a HUGE difference in how flexible that they can be in an offer. So, the Pac-12 has a lot more incentive and financial justification to bring in smaller fish to grab the bigger fish. The SEC and Big Ten have golden handcuffs by comparison - every single expansion piece needs to be a big fish (in terms of a new market and/or national brand name) for it to work.
01-08-2018 06:38 PM
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Erictelevision Online
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Post: #34
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
Thanks Frank! Which MWC team would the PAC 12 grab to get to 16?
01-08-2018 06:52 PM
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Post: #35
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
(01-08-2018 06:52 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Thanks Frank! Which MWC team would the PAC 12 grab to get to 16?

They'll take Tech. They don't have to dip into the MWC.
01-08-2018 06:56 PM
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Post: #36
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
The SEC is one conference that I think has room to absorb some little brothers. Oklahoma St and Texas Tech are worth it if it brings the Longhorns and Sooners into the empire. At that point you might as well find two more and do what I've suggested in other threads--create 4 divisions of 5 and have two "conference" champs:

Division 1: Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, LSU, Oklahoma, Okla St
Division 2: LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss, Miss St
Division 3: Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vandy
Division 4: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, UVA, UNC

You could potentially swap out the ACC schools for some combination of TCU/Kansas/WVU--I just haven't found a division alignment I like for them.
01-08-2018 07:12 PM
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Post: #37
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
(01-08-2018 05:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-08-2018 04:45 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Lots of good stuff here. JR and I have discussed this before and I highly respect his thoughts and others. Personally, I do not care where the Big12 teams go, but I think it would be best for all concerned if the the P5 went to four conferences.

It is my belief that Texas will not move to the SEC unless the stars align against them....or as JR has suggested ESPN works some magic. I must say though that Texas is use to having their way and they do not like being pushed. Plus they have a ton of money. They do not seem to like the SEC culture and right or wrong, they appear to frown on their academics. I know the arguments about some the Big12 schools etc. Most importantly, I do not think they will follow A&M anywhere. Texas has a lot of pride in who they are and rightly so.

If Texas is willing to change conferences, and I believe they will, then I think that the realignment battle will be between the Big10 and the PAC. I can see OU, KU, Texas and one other (Missouri?) to the Big10. Also, I can see OU, OSU, Texas, Tech and possibly KU and KSU to the PAC.

The Big10 could offer a West Division made up of Texas, OU, KU, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern and Wisconsin. The newbies would be playing in six states they have a history with. The PAC could offer a six team POD or an East Division that would negate travel concerns.

If Texas does not want to move, for various reasons, that changes things.

I am not sure about OU and KU to the Big. Would OU want to leave both OSU and Texas behind. Would the Big want just those two.

Would the PAC take OU, OSU, Tech etc. without Texas. Considering their current situation they might.

If the above options failed then the SEC could invite OU and OSU together, plus just about anyone else they wanted. In that event OU might have to decide whether to go to the BIG sans OSU and Texas or to the SEC with OSU.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next few years.

I think the only legitimate shot the Big 10 has at Texas is with a foursome move to 18 and I don't think that's all that legitimate either.

But if they wanted to make the offer then Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and likely Iowa State would be the play. Missouri doesn't have a grant of rights with the SEC but they have one through the SEC with ESPN. I would have to think that any move that saw Texas leaving for a non ESPN held conference would have to have their approval and the LHN contract isn't up until the end of the 2031 season. And that's the big catch. If Texas wants to move earlier than 2023 (when they could give a two year notice to the Big 12 or when enough schools might vote for dissolution) it will be to either the SEC or ACC unless the PACN sells out to ESPN. IMO, that is the only move that could free a large contingent of the Big 12 to move West.

Oklahoma and Kansas both will see the last year of their T3 when it's time to make a decision so they will be free agents.

With Disney's new clout I wouldn't rule their magic out. UT has always publicly looked down their snouts at the SEC, but they have always privately kept an open door exchange of information with regards to general business and possible affiliation.

But for the SEC the game is Oklahoma. With Oklahoma, L.S.U., and Texas A&M there isn't much in Texas they can't reach in strength. The attainment of Oklahoma also insures that no matter what the other schools do the SEC will remain at the top in revenue generated and branding. So that alone makes O.S.U. viable and it is something that ESPN talking heads have been alluding to for the past 2 years.

I'm sure the Big 10 will make their push and it will be a strong one, but the one thing they can't do is take OSU, or TTU for that matter.

Their handicap is that they also can't take enough Big 12 schools to make travel easy or to offer a lot of friendly faces, and Nebraska and Texas have hardly been cordial.

But all of this is why Texas and Oklahoma have dug their heels in for so long. They really could have a division of their own with the PAC, but the PAC can't pay them more because the PAC makes 7 million less per school than the Big 12 does right now.

Texas really doesn't have a push for the Big 10 and the travel and sports culture are not that compatible. Texas loves Softball and Baseball and Swimming & Diving and outside of Michigan the Big 10 doesn't do much with swimming. Oklahoma loves gymnastics, baseball & softball. So the Big 10 isn't that exciting a prospect for their A.D.'s. Their faculty might love it, but it would be a difficult sell athletically.

If they don't want the SEC they don't really have a good option and that is why the inertia has been there all along. But inertia is a slow death for two proud programs.

I'll give you this, the decision will be epic and there are no clear cut winners. That's why I think business will decide the matter. Where can their fans access the games easily, where do their sports fit best, what foes best sell out their venues, and where can they at least earn more through the move.

So, we wait. But probably for not much longer.

JR, I agree that the only shot the Big has at UT is with a foursome. If it happens, that is exactly what I see happening....with OU, KU, UT and Missouri/Iowa State. I am not familiar with Missouri's situation with the SEC network, but Iowa State is a nice substitute if Missouri cannot work something out with the SEC..

As for the LHN, it has been a failure and I could see that agreement being negotiated between the two parties prior to 2031. Texas might just forfeit the last six years of the contract for the right opportunity.

I also agree, that for the SEC... the game is Oklahoma and yes the Big cannot take OSU or Tech. However, I think since A&M was allowed to leave the Big12 unencumbered, no one will try and force UT to take Tech with them. IMO that is a dead issue. I am convinced that if OU decides it is in their best interest to go to the Big.. they will go without OSU, but the desire to stay with OSU will certainly be a concern.

I am not as knowledgeable about the conference revenues as you are, but if both OU and Texas join the PAC wouldn't that increase their revenue considerably?

I disagree that the Big doesn't offer any friendly faces nor friendly travel. A POD with UT, OU, KU, Nebraska, and Missouri or Iowa State ...all former Big12 members... sounds pretty familiar with ease of travel. If they go divisions, just add Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois and Wisconsin.

Finally, the University of Texas places a very high emphasis on academics.. That may determine where UT goes.

Like I said in another post, IMO it will be best for all concerned for the P5 to become a P4.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2018 10:08 PM by SMUmustangs.)
01-08-2018 09:39 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #38
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
(01-08-2018 09:39 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(01-08-2018 05:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-08-2018 04:45 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Lots of good stuff here. JR and I have discussed this before and I highly respect his thoughts and others. Personally, I do not care where the Big12 teams go, but I think it would be best for all concerned if the the P5 went to four conferences.

It is my belief that Texas will not move to the SEC unless the stars align against them....or as JR has suggested ESPN works some magic. I must say though that Texas is use to having their way and they do not like being pushed. Plus they have a ton of money. They do not seem to like the SEC culture and right or wrong, they appear to frown on their academics. I know the arguments about some the Big12 schools etc. Most importantly, I do not think they will follow A&M anywhere. Texas has a lot of pride in who they are and rightly so.

If Texas is willing to change conferences, and I believe they will, then I think that the realignment battle will be between the Big10 and the PAC. I can see OU, KU, Texas and one other (Missouri?) to the Big10. Also, I can see OU, OSU, Texas, Tech and possibly KU and KSU to the PAC.

The Big10 could offer a West Division made up of Texas, OU, KU, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern and Wisconsin. The newbies would be playing in six states they have a history with. The PAC could offer a six team POD or an East Division that would negate travel concerns.

If Texas does not want to move, for various reasons, that changes things.

I am not sure about OU and KU to the Big. Would OU want to leave both OSU and Texas behind. Would the Big want just those two.

Would the PAC take OU, OSU, Tech etc. without Texas. Considering their current situation they might.

If the above options failed then the SEC could invite OU and OSU together, plus just about anyone else they wanted. In that event OU might have to decide whether to go to the BIG sans OSU and Texas or to the SEC with OSU.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next few years.

I think the only legitimate shot the Big 10 has at Texas is with a foursome move to 18 and I don't think that's all that legitimate either.

But if they wanted to make the offer then Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and likely Iowa State would be the play. Missouri doesn't have a grant of rights with the SEC but they have one through the SEC with ESPN. I would have to think that any move that saw Texas leaving for a non ESPN held conference would have to have their approval and the LHN contract isn't up until the end of the 2031 season. And that's the big catch. If Texas wants to move earlier than 2023 (when they could give a two year notice to the Big 12 or when enough schools might vote for dissolution) it will be to either the SEC or ACC unless the PACN sells out to ESPN. IMO, that is the only move that could free a large contingent of the Big 12 to move West.

Oklahoma and Kansas both will see the last year of their T3 when it's time to make a decision so they will be free agents.

With Disney's new clout I wouldn't rule their magic out. UT has always publicly looked down their snouts at the SEC, but they have always privately kept an open door exchange of information with regards to general business and possible affiliation.

But for the SEC the game is Oklahoma. With Oklahoma, L.S.U., and Texas A&M there isn't much in Texas they can't reach in strength. The attainment of Oklahoma also insures that no matter what the other schools do the SEC will remain at the top in revenue generated and branding. So that alone makes O.S.U. viable and it is something that ESPN talking heads have been alluding to for the past 2 years.

I'm sure the Big 10 will make their push and it will be a strong one, but the one thing they can't do is take OSU, or TTU for that matter.

Their handicap is that they also can't take enough Big 12 schools to make travel easy or to offer a lot of friendly faces, and Nebraska and Texas have hardly been cordial.

But all of this is why Texas and Oklahoma have dug their heels in for so long. They really could have a division of their own with the PAC, but the PAC can't pay them more because the PAC makes 7 million less per school than the Big 12 does right now.

Texas really doesn't have a push for the Big 10 and the travel and sports culture are not that compatible. Texas loves Softball and Baseball and Swimming & Diving and outside of Michigan the Big 10 doesn't do much with swimming. Oklahoma loves gymnastics, baseball & softball. So the Big 10 isn't that exciting a prospect for their A.D.'s. Their faculty might love it, but it would be a difficult sell athletically.

If they don't want the SEC they don't really have a good option and that is why the inertia has been there all along. But inertia is a slow death for two proud programs.

I'll give you this, the decision will be epic and there are no clear cut winners. That's why I think business will decide the matter. Where can their fans access the games easily, where do their sports fit best, what foes best sell out their venues, and where can they at least earn more through the move.

So, we wait. But probably for not much longer.

JR, I agree that the only shot the Big has at UT is with a foursome. If it happens, that is exactly what I see happening....with OU, KU, UT and Missouri/Iowa State. I am not familiar with Missouri's situation with the SEC network, but Iowa State is a nice substitute if Missouri cannot work something out with the SEC..

As for the LHN, it has been a failure and I could see that agreement being negotiated between the two parties prior to 2031. Texas might just forfeit the last six years of the contract for the right opportunity.

I also agree, that for the SEC... the game is Oklahoma and yes the Big cannot take OSU or Tech. However, I think since A&M was allowed to leave the Big12 unencumbered, no one will try and force UT to take Tech with them. IMO that is a dead issue. I am convinced that if OU decides it is in their best interest to go to the Big.. they will go without OSU, but the desire to stay with OSU will certainly be a concern.

I am not as knowledgeable about the conference revenues as you are, but if both OU and Texas join the PAC wouldn't that increase their revenue considerably?


Yes, but nowhere near as much as in either the Big 10 or SEC. And for Texas and Oklahoma to earn more in the PAC than they do in the Big 12 they would have to start with each PAC school earning 8 million more each for that move.

And then the PACN would have to provide another 15 million per each school for Texas and OU to earn a 1 million and 8 million dollar increase respectively

I disagree that the Big doesn't offer any friendly faces nor friendly travel. A POD with UT, OU, KU, Nebraska, and Missouri or Iowa State ...all former Big12 members... sounds pretty familiar with ease of travel. If they go divisions, just add Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois and Wisconsin.

Now do the math on the travel to that division and then consider the incompatibility of the minor sports and the obvious deficits for baseball and softball and in OU's case women's gymnastics

Finally, the University of Texas places a very high emphasis on academics.. That may determine where UT goes.

If it had been the determining factor they would have already be gone. The Big 12's academic standing is lower than that of the SEC. And as you know athletic affiliation doesn't impinge academic associations in the least. Many shared projects start with AAU associations regardless of conference

Like I said in another post, IMO it will be best for all concerned for the P5 to become a P4.

I totally agree with this. And please understand I'm not saying that the SEC gets them or that they won't go to the Big 10. But I am saying that geography, sports fit, and fan interest, and the ability to fill venues, are all on our side in this push.

And by the way and unrelated to our discussion I find the Poll results to be very interesting. It seems that everyone voting for the PAC option is from a G5 school.

(This post was last modified: 01-08-2018 10:36 PM by JRsec.)
01-08-2018 10:24 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #39
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
(01-07-2018 04:41 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(01-07-2018 04:36 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  Who would be the SEC’s #18?

Maybe they'll vote Vanderbilt off the island. 03-wink

Either that or let the Big Ten have Missouri.

If Kansas also went to the B1G, Mizzou would make a very logical #16. That would then leave the SEC at 16 as well.
01-09-2018 10:33 AM
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Post: #40
RE: If OU brings BOTH rivals to a new conference
If Texas, Texas tech, OU and OK state joined the pac 12, I could see the big 10 adding Kansas and Missouri with the sec picking up WVU. However, I think if the big 12 gets cracked it’s going to take the sec, pac 12 or big 10 to jump to 18.

PAC 12: Texas, Texas tech, OU, Ok state , KU, x

X most likely Kansas state just to keep politically cool

Big 10: Texas, OU, KU, X

X from the pool of Texas tech, Houston, Missouri or Iowa state. Clearly, Missouri would add the most but if the big 10 can land Texas,ou, and ku I don’t think the last spot is a big concern. I have no doubt Texas tech or Houston would be acceptable either in this case if it’s a requirement to get UT

Sec: Texas, OU, Ok state, x

X from the pool of Kansas, Texas tech or Tulane

Texas would probably want Texas tech unless they have a pac 12 invite. I could also see Texas want Tulane to boost up sec academics. Like the x from the other leagues it really doesn’t matter if the package includes Texas and OU.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2018 11:05 AM by bluesox.)
01-09-2018 11:04 AM
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