If the AAC invited Boise State and SDSU again, would they join?

The American is doing pretty good. Not exactly the dumpster fire most people thought it would be.

(11-21-2017 11:49 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If the AAC invited Boise State and SDSU again, would they join?

The American is doing pretty good. Not exactly the dumpster fire most people thought it would be.

No....pretty content where they are at.

No, it's a rounding error difference in media revenue at the moment, at the expense of travel and losing rivals fans care about.

And really no, as everyone is waiting on Oklahoma in 2025. The thinking of everyone is, why move when you might be moving again, or the B12 loses say 4 schools and then takes the strongest 4 schools from the AAC. Then you have joined a a bunch of junk (Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Temple, Navy, and pick two others left behind) and racked up a very expensive exit fee. If it doesn't get you a lot closer to joining P5 then why bother?

Note, SDSU and BSU would be FB only, and that meant Big West and for Boise that meant paying that conference over half a million a year (travel) plus another $1 million entry fee. It'd be higher now. For SDSU it means throwing away their Olympic Sports.

The AAC could offer both schools say a 50% reduction in exit fee and just 12 months notice, plus an extra $2m a year in revenue above what other AAC schools get. That would actually have a chance. But does the AAC want to go to an uneven distribution and pay Western schools more?

(11-21-2017 11:49 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If the AAC invited Boise State and SDSU again, would they join?

The American is doing pretty good. Not exactly the dumpster fire most people thought it would be.

They ship has sailed. They we're offered once and refused. Boise played the AAC against the MWC and then went back to the MWC hanging SD ST out in the wind forcing them to return to the MWC too.

The AAC is strong enough now to go on as is. The schools in that conference are waiting to see what happens with the B-12 down the road before they make any more moves now that the conference has strengthened itself in BB with the recent addition of Wichita ST. The conference now has 12 schools for BB and Olympic Sports, and 12 teams for FB with Navy in the conference for FB only. The conference has no need to add anyone else under their current contract and there is no justification to add anyone in the future contract as there is not enough value for future additions out there to justify their addition with out diluting the current and future potential income.

No.

(11-21-2017 11:58 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  No, it's a rounding error difference in media revenue at the moment, at the expense of travel and losing rivals fans care about.

And really no, as everyone is waiting on Oklahoma in 2025. The thinking of everyone is, why move when you might be moving again, or the B12 loses say 4 schools and then takes the strongest 4 schools from the AAC. Then you have joined a a bunch of junk (Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Temple, Navy, and pick two others left behind) and racked up a very expensive exit fee. If it doesn't get you a lot closer to joining P5 then why bother?

Note, SDSU and BSU would be FB only, and that meant Big West and for Boise that meant paying that conference over half a million a year (travel) plus another $1 million entry fee. It'd be higher now. For SDSU it means throwing away their Olympic Sports.

The AAC could offer both schools say a 50% reduction in exit fee and just 12 months notice, plus an extra $2m a year in revenue above what other AAC schools get. That would actually have a chance. But does the AAC want to go to an uneven distribution and pay Western schools more?

ARE you ever going to come clean and remove tosh from your signature lol. I've never seen a Ohio State fan have so hatred towards anything involving the AAC and at the same time have such impassioned personal responses I in defense of the mwc lol

Could have used them a few years ago, but dont need 'em anymore. Besides, I doubt there is much support flying olympic sports 1500 miles to play Boise basketball or volleyball. I agree, not much point in playing musical chairs at this point since realignment could potentially start up again in 2024-2025.

The AAC is going to get a nice raise with its current line up without the expensive travel the western schools would entail. The only way it makes sense is if you take a group of 4 MW schools, divide the AAC into 2 8-team divisions, and restrict most olympic sports play to within each division. Even then, they would have to bring a lot of extra money to make the hassle and travel of going to 16 worth it. If BYU is interested that would change the equation and make it more attractive. Maybe BYU and 3 front range schools could keep travel somewhat reasonable while adding a new time zone. But...I dont see BYU being interested.

So...I'd say its no at this point (probably from both sides).

Not only would those 2 not need to accept an invitation, the AAC has no need to invite them.

Anyone in a sales profession on this forum will concur to this -- sometimes a deal doesn't make sense on either side. This is one of those cases.

2011-2012 =/ 2017-2018

(11-21-2017 11:49 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If the AAC invited Boise State and SDSU again, would they join?

The American is doing pretty good. Not exactly the dumpster fire most people thought it would be.

Did someone move them closer geographically or is the AAC making $20M per school?

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The AAC media package didn't offer enough dollars to make it beneficial for Boise State to pay the added costs to put Olympic sports in the Big West or pay the higher travel and annoyance of traveling in AAC.

The shortest trip to a current AAC for football is Tulsa. If you are playing Tulsa on Saturday, your equipment truck has to leave Boise on Thursday and under Federal trucking regulations, you have to have two CDL drivers to make that trip unless you want to send the truck out on Wednesday. Playing UCF or USF, that's about 40 hours in a tractor trailer to get the equipment there.

Real pain the rear to make less money once you pay all your added costs and if you avoid the trucking issue, the air freight costs would be really significant.

(11-22-2017 10:29 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  The AAC media package didn't offer enough dollars to make it beneficial for Boise State to pay the added costs to put Olympic sports in the Big West or pay the higher travel and annoyance of traveling in AAC.

The shortest trip to a current AAC for football is Tulsa. If you are playing Tulsa on Saturday, your equipment truck has to leave Boise on Thursday and under Federal trucking regulations, you have to have two CDL drivers to make that trip unless you want to send the truck out on Wednesday. Playing UCF or USF, that's about 40 hours in a tractor trailer to get the equipment there.

Real pain the rear to make less money once you pay all your added costs and if you avoid the trucking issue, the air freight costs would be really significant.

Couldn't Boise just get one of their graduates to do it pro bono?

(11-22-2017 12:31 PM)canewton Wrote:  

(11-22-2017 10:29 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  The AAC media package didn't offer enough dollars to make it beneficial for Boise State to pay the added costs to put Olympic sports in the Big West or pay the higher travel and annoyance of traveling in AAC.

The shortest trip to a current AAC for football is Tulsa. If you are playing Tulsa on Saturday, your equipment truck has to leave Boise on Thursday and under Federal trucking regulations, you have to have two CDL drivers to make that trip unless you want to send the truck out on Wednesday. Playing UCF or USF, that's about 40 hours in a tractor trailer to get the equipment there.

Real pain the rear to make less money once you pay all your added costs and if you avoid the trucking issue, the air freight costs would be really significant.

Couldn't Boise just get one of their graduates to do it pro bono?

hahahahaha

That was funny.

(11-21-2017 11:49 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If the AAC invited Boise State and SDSU again, would they join?

The American is doing pretty good. Not exactly the dumpster fire most people thought it would be.

Depends on what the media partners say when the AAC is negotiating its next TV deal for the 2020 season. If the media partners say that they will pay materially more to the conference if they were to add Boise and SDSU, then you better believe the AAC would do it.

Whether Boise State and SDSU join the AAC will depend on how much the AAC's TV deal increases. The simple 30% increase (outlined below) from the current deal likely isn't enough. But the pro rata contract increase for an expanded AAC is likely to reach 66% or more (ie, $1M+ pro rata increase). That might be enough to lure Boise and SDSU away.

Boise and SDSU likely would bring material value to the the next AAC TV deal. A significant part of the current ESPN-MWC TV deal is for Boise St.'s home games. Half of the 2017 MWC conference games on ESPN/2 involved Boise and all the Boise games had better ratings than the non-Boise MWC conference games. Utah St.at Wisconsin was the only non-Boise MWC game on ESPN (all others were on ESPN2 or ESPNU) - and that game was part of the B1G TV deal.

So, a rough estimate assigns Boise and SDSU half of the value of the MWC's $18M contract with ESPN - or about $9M. (And, I note that the MWC has indicated that there will not be the same sweetheart deal for Boise the next time around).

Without any other increase to the AAC contract, if you simply added that $9M to the pot (and despite adding two new members), the pro rata portion to the AAC members increases by 30% (for 14 members - including Boise and SDSU - assuming the MWC does not offer the Boise sweetheart deal again) .

It's also important to note that pollsters, and perhaps more importantly, the CFP Selection Committee, continue to show Boise State love, despite 2 losses and no P5 victories. Boise State still has cache and would benefit the AAC's brand and prestige. From the inverse perspective, Boise St. would likely benefit materially from being part of a conference that has multiple teams in the rankings. Boise's path to the NY6 bid would actually be more difficult, because they would need to beat #15 UCF or #20 Memphis to win the AAC championship (instead of an unranked Fresno St.). But this is offset by the fact that Boise is not likely to win the NY6 bid, even if they beat Fresno St. and the additional benefits from being part of the conference that does, in fact, win the NY6 bid.

(11-22-2017 03:18 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-21-2017 11:49 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If the AAC invited Boise State and SDSU again, would they join?

The American is doing pretty good. Not exactly the dumpster fire most people thought it would be.

Depends on what the media partners say when the AAC is negotiating its next TV deal for the 2020 season. If the media partners say that they will pay materially more to the conference if they were to add Boise and SDSU, then you better believe the AAC would do it.

Whether Boise State and SDSU join the AAC will depend on how much the AAC's TV deal increases. The simple 30% increase (outlined below) from the current deal likely isn't enough. But the pro rata contract increase for an expanded AAC is likely to reach 66% or more (ie, $1M+ pro rata increase). That might be enough to lure Boise and SDSU away.

Boise and SDSU likely would bring material value to the the next AAC TV deal. A significant part of the current ESPN-MWC TV deal is for Boise St.'s home games. Half of the 2017 MWC conference games on ESPN/2 involved Boise and all the Boise games had better ratings than the non-Boise MWC conference games. Utah St.at Wisconsin was the only non-Boise MWC game on ESPN (all others were on ESPN2 or ESPNU) - and that game was part of the B1G TV deal.

So, a rough estimate assigns Boise and SDSU half of the value of the MWC's $18M contract with ESPN - or about $9M. (And, I note that the MWC has indicated that there will not be the same sweetheart deal for Boise the next time around).

Without any other increase to the AAC contract, if you simply added that $9M to the pot (and despite adding two new members), the pro rata portion to the AAC members increases by 30% (for 14 members - including Boise and SDSU - assuming the MWC does not offer the Boise sweetheart deal again) .

It's also important to note that pollsters, and perhaps more importantly, the CFP Selection Committee, continue to show Boise State love, despite 2 losses and no P5 victories. Boise State still has cache and would benefit the AAC's brand and prestige. From the inverse perspective, Boise St. would likely benefit materially from being part of a conference that has multiple teams in the rankings. Boise's path to the NY6 bid would actually be more difficult, because they would need to beat #15 UCF or #20 Memphis to win the AAC championship (instead of an unranked Fresno St.). But this is offset by the fact that Boise is not likely to win the NY6 bid, even if they beat Fresno St. and the additional benefits from being part of the conference that does, in fact, win the NY6 bid.

If the AAC were to offer FULL MEMBERSHIPS to Boise State, SDSU, BYU, and CSU, then I think all four of these schools would be foolish to turn down the offer. The AAC would be the premier G5 conference, and would be pushing for legit power conference consideration. I don't think the AAC would actually extend an invitation, but if BYU were to convince the above schools to jump, and the presidents were unified in their determination, then I think the AAC would look long and hard at the prospect.

For the AAC to take these four schools seriously, I think that BYU and Boise State would have to be willing to be on even ground with TV rights and money and I know that BSU AD Curt Apsey has said that he'd be willing to talk about TV rights if the circumstances were right. I think an AAC invitation would be a good reason to forego any special TV rights deals. I doubt BYU would let go of its TV rights. I think BYU would rather burn in the fire of failed Indy status than "relegate" itself to a G5 conference, and I think that they are bound to wander the wilderness indy failure because of their pride; but many of BYU's fans are starting to come around on the idea. Ultimately, I just don't think it's gonna happen.

I can fully understand why the AAC would be content to stand pat and see how the Big12 will shake out in a few years and take advantage of the Big 12 fallout. Aresco is action oriented. As foolish as I think the P6 thing is, at least he isn't just resigned to his fate like the MWC Commish Thompson is, and I like that in a commish.

I do see a reorganization of G5 coming. But I don't see it on this next TV deal. Rather I see it aligned with 2026 in the post B12 shakeup. Until the B12 shakes up there is far too much to risk and far too little to gain.

It should also be remembered that Kustra will be gone, and most like a more conservative approach is coming to Boise State. Boise was interested in the Big East when it had Louisville and Rutgers. Tulsa and ECU are the same. The TV deal Boise State was looking at was north of $10m per school in 2012 dollars. Today that is more like $15m expected. The American is not going to get anything like that.

We have to see what schools are left in the American and Mountain West after Oklahoma and others move from the Big 12. If the American is right that they are ways superior, then they could lose as many as 5 schools to the Big 12 after 2024. Boise State will be very aware of that. An American where the line up is SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Memphis, ECU, Temple and Navy is nothing to salivate over. Especially if they dip into CUSA to replenish some of those lost schools.

The networks would have to waive a lot of money at the American to make them consider adding a wing of 4 western schools. Not entirely impossible but also not very likely either.

I think everyone is in wait and see mode. Movement in the Big 12 could shift the balance of power and if the American were to lose a handful of their top schools schools a group of western MWC adds could find the MWC preferable.

The AAC is rolling just fine with its current lineup... No thanks.

Why would the AAC do that? They’re strong enough as it is. Maybe Boise and BYU would bring enough to gain ground on the P5, but the AAC has clear separation as it is from the G conferences. In reality, the AAC is a tweener with the only path to move up being Boise/BYU FB only. SDSU doesn’t do that imo

Boise State has already been to an NY6 Bowl as a MWC member. They don't need the AAC for that and I'm sure the feeling is mutual on the other side.

People forget the only reason why Boise and SDSU went to the Big East for football only was because it still had the autobid and the possibility of making anywhere from $3-10 million in tv contacts. It was worth moving basketball and the other sports to the Big West, Big Sky or the new WAC. The move made sense back then, it doesn't now.

I think the school that AAC would be most intersted in and would probably immediately give a FB invite to is Army and put the Army/Navy game in conference...... AF would be a consideration after that if they are interested...which means we would probably need to add Colorado State since I think they would be tied at the hip. But really I think Army is the only one that could realistically get a AAC invite.... but I don't think Army wants one and maybe BYU...but I don't think they want one either.