(11-06-2017 07:01 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 04:13 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  19-12. Lose a couple early that we shouldn't (UAB, Mercer). Win a few late as underdogs (Houston, UConn, UCF).

So after months of incessant arguing about how Tubby is doing a great job and it is nonsense to think we won't be good...you have us losing to every single team on our schedule that has a pulse.

A good but not great team would win 22-23 games playing this schedule. I think we will be below average and I have us at 18 wins. You argue at every turn with anyone that says anything bad about Tubby and predict one more win than I do.

Ridiculous.

See, you're confused again. I've never said he's "doing a great job". I have said over and over, give the man time to do what he does best. I have advised to back off and let things play out a little longer.

I also have us losing 2 games as favorites, then winning 3 as underdogs. So that's not "losing to every single team on our schedule that has a pulse".

We haven't won 23 games since the best team Pastner ever assembled got throttled by Virginia 4 years ago. That should have been a "great team".

I won't commit to a specific W/L record, but I'll say they finish no lower than 6th. And they will make one of the smaller postseason tournaments (CBI, CIT, NIT).

All I know is that I've never been less interested in the start of basketball season than this year.

Was just wondering the pulse of the Memphis fan base and here is where it's at . . . on this forum at least . . . FYI my official prediction is 17-14

The majority of predictions has us with 17 wins (7 people), 2nd most common prediction is a tie with 20 (4 people) and 18 (4 people).

Breaking it down into brackets .. .. ..

0-5 wins - None

6-10 wins - None

11-15 wins - 3

16-20 wins - 19

21-25 wins - 6

26 plus wins - 1 (I didn't count the 30-1 pick, didn't think that was serious)

I'd say the vast majority have reasonable expectations.

(11-08-2017 11:03 AM)EricSigEpTNBeta183 Wrote:  Was just wondering the pulse of the Memphis fan base and here is where it's at . . . on this forum at least . . . FYI my official prediction is 17-14

The majority of predictions has us with 17 wins (7 people), 2nd most common prediction is a tie with 20 (4 people) and 18 (4 people).

Breaking it down into brackets .. .. ..

0-5 wins - None

6-10 wins - None

11-15 wins - 3

16-20 wins - 19

21-25 wins - 6

26 plus wins - 1 (I didn't count the 30-1 pick, didn't think that was serious)

I'd say the vast majority have reasonable expectations.

get out of the way

the train is comin

28-3 Overall Record
15-3 AAC Record

(11-08-2017 11:03 AM)EricSigEpTNBeta183 Wrote:  Was just wondering the pulse of the Memphis fan base and here is where it's at . . . on this forum at least . . . FYI my official prediction is 17-14

The majority of predictions has us with 17 wins (7 people), 2nd most common prediction is a tie with 20 (4 people) and 18 (4 people).

Breaking it down into brackets .. .. ..

0-5 wins - None

6-10 wins - None

11-15 wins - 3

16-20 wins - 19

21-25 wins - 6

26 plus wins - 1 (I didn't count the 30-1 pick, didn't think that was serious)

I'd say the vast majority have reasonable expectations.

The expectation you kindly summarized pertains to predicted performance. It does not mean, necessarily, that the predicted performance results meets acceptable preformance standard results. For example, I expect Tubby to achieve progress over last year through tangible results (eg, number of wins and AAC placement). I predict a 15-17 overall record. The difference between performance standard results and predicted results in my example is the performance gap.

Do other Tiger fans have measurable performance standards for Tubby this season?

12-19. This board year over year over inflates its projections. Someone ought to average out the projections versus the actual over 5 years. I bet the actual wins are 5 below from the projected average of this board. So I’m taking the average this year (17) and subtracting 5. We are gonna blow a lot (half) of games against cupcakes due to lack of team chemistry and D1 experience. It was a dumpster fire after all the transfers and it’s still a dumpster fire. I’m sad to be even writing this but my expectations are very low and I expect a long, long disaster of a season based on all information going in so far.

I think 17 is pretty reasonable expectations . . . think it can go 2 games either way, possibly 3 but I like the 17 number the best. Just my opinion, have been wrong before, that's for sure.

(11-08-2017 11:42 AM)ShilohTiger Wrote:  12-19.

16-20 wins all day long. Not that 16-20 wins for Tiger basketball against this schedule is any reason to be happy.......

12 only happens if they lose 3-4 of the projected starters for the season really, really early in the year.

(11-08-2017 11:11 AM)BandwagonJumper Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 11:03 AM)EricSigEpTNBeta183 Wrote:  Was just wondering the pulse of the Memphis fan base and here is where it's at . . . on this forum at least . . . FYI my official prediction is 17-14

The majority of predictions has us with 17 wins (7 people), 2nd most common prediction is a tie with 20 (4 people) and 18 (4 people).

Breaking it down into brackets .. .. ..

0-5 wins - None

6-10 wins - None

11-15 wins - 3

16-20 wins - 19

21-25 wins - 6

26 plus wins - 1 (I didn't count the 30-1 pick, didn't think that was serious)

I'd say the vast majority have reasonable expectations.

get out of the way

the train is comin

28-3 Overall Record
15-3 AAC Record

Put me on ignore, so I don't have to read your posts.

(11-08-2017 12:16 PM)bluebacker Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 11:42 AM)ShilohTiger Wrote:  12-19.

16-20 wins all day long. Not that 16-20 wins for Tiger basketball against this schedule is any reason to be happy.......

12 only happens if they lose 3-4 of the projected starters for the season really, really early in the year.

lol 12 could happen with the starters, imo. I don't see many cupcakes in our conference.

(11-08-2017 12:45 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 11:11 AM)BandwagonJumper Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 11:03 AM)EricSigEpTNBeta183 Wrote:  Was just wondering the pulse of the Memphis fan base and here is where it's at . . . on this forum at least . . . FYI my official prediction is 17-14

The majority of predictions has us with 17 wins (7 people), 2nd most common prediction is a tie with 20 (4 people) and 18 (4 people).

Breaking it down into brackets .. .. ..

0-5 wins - None

6-10 wins - None

11-15 wins - 3

16-20 wins - 19

21-25 wins - 6

26 plus wins - 1 (I didn't count the 30-1 pick, didn't think that was serious)

I'd say the vast majority have reasonable expectations.

get out of the way

the train is comin

28-3 Overall Record
15-3 AAC Record

Put me on ignore, so I don't have to read your posts.

I'm drinking the Kool-Aid and going 19-12 with an NIT appearance

The team will play with discipline and cohesion, elevating them a full notch above their talent level.

They will pull off a major upset against someone, maybe Louisville or Wichita State.

An off-night will will cost them dearly against a lower-tier team like East Carolina or South Florida. Most of the season, we'll beat the teams we're supposed to beat and lose the majority of road games against the upper half of the AAC.

Overall, will be a much better season than anticipated, and Tubby will receive much-deserved praise from the media. Tiger fans will finally feel a real sense of hope that the basketball program is returning to form.

(11-08-2017 02:20 PM)EvilLore Wrote:  I'm drinking the Kool-Aid and going 19-12 with an NIT appearance

The team will play with discipline and cohesion, elevating them a full notch above their talent level.

They will pull off a major upset against someone, maybe Louisville or Wichita State.

An off-night will will cost them dearly against a lower-tier team like East Carolina or South Florida. Most of the season, we'll beat the teams we're supposed to beat and lose the majority of road games against the upper half of the AAC.

Overall, will be a much better season than anticipated, and Tubby will receive much-deserved praise from the media. Tiger fans will finally feel a real sense of hope that the basketball program is returning to form.

How so?

Most folks are calling for 18-21 wins. So how, according to you at 19 wins, is that going to be much better than anticipated?

(11-08-2017 02:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 02:20 PM)EvilLore Wrote:  I'm drinking the Kool-Aid and going 19-12 with an NIT appearance

The team will play with discipline and cohesion, elevating them a full notch above their talent level.

They will pull off a major upset against someone, maybe Louisville or Wichita State.

An off-night will will cost them dearly against a lower-tier team like East Carolina or South Florida. Most of the season, we'll beat the teams we're supposed to beat and lose the majority of road games against the upper half of the AAC.

Overall, will be a much better season than anticipated, and Tubby will receive much-deserved praise from the media. Tiger fans will finally feel a real sense of hope that the basketball program is returning to form.

How so?

Most folks are calling for 18-21 wins. So how, according to you at 19 wins, is that going to be much better than anticipated?

They won't be last in the conference.

Nobody, but one media guy thought we would be last. It was unnerving, but we didn't put stock in that negative nelly nonsense.

(11-08-2017 02:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 02:20 PM)EvilLore Wrote:  I'm drinking the Kool-Aid and going 19-12 with an NIT appearance

The team will play with discipline and cohesion, elevating them a full notch above their talent level.

They will pull off a major upset against someone, maybe Louisville or Wichita State.

An off-night will will cost them dearly against a lower-tier team like East Carolina or South Florida. Most of the season, we'll beat the teams we're supposed to beat and lose the majority of road games against the upper half of the AAC.

Overall, will be a much better season than anticipated, and Tubby will receive much-deserved praise from the media. Tiger fans will finally feel a real sense of hope that the basketball program is returning to form.

How so?

Most folks are calling for 18-21 wins. So how, according to you at 19 wins, is that going to be much better than anticipated?

Most folks? Virtually all of the media "experts" say Memphis will finish 9th in the conference. It is almost (but not quite) impossible for Memphis to finish 9th and win 18-21 games (6-12 in-conference was 9th place last season). So 18-21 wins is likely an improvement over what the "experts" say.

19 wins won't get us into the NIT. We had 19 wins last year and didn't sniff the NIT. Too many slots are already locked up in the NIT.

(11-08-2017 04:53 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  19 wins won't get us into the NIT. We had 19 wins last year and didn't sniff the NIT. Too many slots are already locked up in the NIT.

With our schedule will take probably take 21 wins. 19 wins might do it IF there were to be a couple of high profile wins (Wichita, Cincinnati, Louisville) along with a strong, attention grabbing close the season.

Hard to see that happening though.

(11-08-2017 04:31 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 02:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 02:20 PM)EvilLore Wrote:  I'm drinking the Kool-Aid and going 19-12 with an NIT appearance

The team will play with discipline and cohesion, elevating them a full notch above their talent level.

They will pull off a major upset against someone, maybe Louisville or Wichita State.

An off-night will will cost them dearly against a lower-tier team like East Carolina or South Florida. Most of the season, we'll beat the teams we're supposed to beat and lose the majority of road games against the upper half of the AAC.

Overall, will be a much better season than anticipated, and Tubby will receive much-deserved praise from the media. Tiger fans will finally feel a real sense of hope that the basketball program is returning to form.

How so?

Most folks are calling for 18-21 wins. So how, according to you at 19 wins, is that going to be much better than anticipated?

Most folks? Virtually all of the media "experts" say Memphis will finish 9th in the conference. It is almost (but not quite) impossible for Memphis to finish 9th and win 18-21 games (6-12 in-conference was 9th place last season). So 18-21 wins is likely an improvement over what the "experts" say.

Trying to equate wins and losses (overall) to conference finish are two different things. They really are two different predictors.

Memphis could go 12-1 OOC and then go 7-11 in conference and finish in 8th place (last year Temple was 8th at 7-11).

Two years ago Memphis went 8-10 and was 7th in the AAC.

And now WSU joins.

I see Memphis going 9-9, with wins vs: Cinci, USF (2), Tulane (2), UCF, Tulsa, and ECU. 9-9 historically was good for 7th, 7th, and t(5th) the past three years.

In my final (preseason ranking) I have them 7th:
1) WSU
2) Cinci
3) UCF
4) Tulsa
5) SMU
6) Houston
7) Memphis
8) Uconn
9) Temple
10) Tulane
11) ECU
12) USF

I think it's foregone that Memphis (barring injury or suspension) doesn't finish ahead of Cinci or WSU. And unlikely they finish ahead of UCF (unless the Dawkins injury means more than I think) or SMU.

Tulsa and Houston both have more experience and it certainly isn't crazy to seem them finishing ahead of Memphis.

On the flip side, ECU, Tulane, and USF are putrid and there is virtually no way any of those schools finish ahead of Memphis.

That means Memphis fights it out with UConn and Temple for 7th to 9th spots, though one of the three could certainly also finish ahead of Tulsa or Houston.