RE: Does the Pac 12 have a realignment Plan B?
The P12 "plan" does not exist, beyond Texas and whatever it takes to get them.
It's really simple, only Texas will get the votes of the California schools and Washington. That is a fundamental "fact" (as far as facts go in realignment). If there is no Texas, there is no Pac-12 expansion.
If Texas does decide to finally consummate what has been an on and off courtship since at least the late 1980s, then many combinations would work. Oklahoma is one of them. Since 2011 talks, TCU has very much eclipsed Texas Tech in the preference order as a companion school.
As for OU, they are being softly courted by both the SEC and B1G, with eyes on 2025, so it's hard to see them choosing the P12 for any reason. Unlike Texas, and their LHN (failure that it is, ESPN hands them over $15m a year), OU needs a return on their network. The B1G has a lengthy buy-in like the P12, but has revenues at the same level or higher than the SEC, which has no buy-in (SEC model is 100% provider owned, so no equity). I don't think that is the big decider for OU between the B1G and the SEC, as they are not cash strapped, and will be in great shape either way. Instead their decision will come down to the prestige of the B1G and what it can do for OU's long term academic future of the school, against the political advantage of being able to tow Oklahoma State along with them to the SEC. Since towing Ok State along is the same for benefit to OU with either the SEC or P12, it's pretty obvious which they would choose.
So when you get back to the P12 situation, any expansion begins with Texas. If they don't come, there is no reason to expand. If they do, the P12 will at a minimum take another B12 school in Texas, likely of Austin's choosing or at least approval, and that seems to me to most likely be TCU, who before the B12 was in the MWC, so has a bit of a western tilt anyway.
I am not thrilled by the choices to get to 16, and I am pretty sure the same is true of UW and the California school Chancellors and Presidents. Colorado State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Rice are really the only options I can see getting out of the suggestion committee. None is a "must have"; only Rice excites the Presidents, but I can't see the AD's signing off on them. The other three can best be described as "complimentary" type additions not bringing enough value on their own to merit an invite.
So I think 14 is more likely than 16. And that means Texas and probably TCU. Then they stop.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2017 06:59 PM by Stugray2.)
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