(10-23-2017 12:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 07:36 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  All things being equal, I'd find it hard to believe that the committee would take:

A Clemson team that lost to a average Syracuse team

Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

Agreed. If Clemson wins out, the only teams they will possibly be ranked behind are (1) SEC champ, (2) B1G champ, and (3) Big 12 champ, if the Big 12 champ is an undefeated TCU.

Nobody else, and that's only three teams, so they will get in.

(10-23-2017 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 12:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 07:36 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  All things being equal, I'd find it hard to believe that the committee would take:

A Clemson team that lost to a average Syracuse team

Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

Not if TCU and Notre Dame win out- and especially if Auburn loses 1 extra game to make them 7-5- Clemson is very much in danger. What quality win would Clemson have then at that point?

TCU, yes, if they are unbeaten. No unbeaten P5 champ will be left out, unless there are four other unbeaten P5 champs. So in that case we'd have the SEC champ, the B1G champ, and TCU, with one spot left to fill.

But even Notre Dame won't stand up to a Clemson team that will be ACC champs and defending national champs.

Like I said- what wins does Clemson really have? Auburn and Virginia Tech. That's it.

To your point that Clemson will get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Florida St didn't a few years ago.

(10-23-2017 02:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 12:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 07:36 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  All things being equal, I'd find it hard to believe that the committee would take:

A Clemson team that lost to a average Syracuse team

Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

Agreed. If Clemson wins out, the only teams they will possibly be ranked behind are (1) SEC champ, (2) B1G champ, and (3) Big 12 champ, if the Big 12 champ is an undefeated TCU.

Nobody else, and that's only three teams, so they will get in.

TCU isn't going undefeated

(10-23-2017 02:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 12:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 07:36 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  All things being equal, I'd find it hard to believe that the committee would take:

A Clemson team that lost to a average Syracuse team

Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

Not if TCU and Notre Dame win out- and especially if Auburn loses 1 extra game to make them 7-5- Clemson is very much in danger. What quality win would Clemson have then at that point?

TCU, yes, if they are unbeaten. No unbeaten P5 champ will be left out, unless there are four other unbeaten P5 champs. So in that case we'd have the SEC champ, the B1G champ, and TCU, with one spot left to fill.

But even Notre Dame won't stand up to a Clemson team that will be ACC champs and defending national champs.

The defending national champs part doesn't mean ****. It's all based on what has happened this year. It's very psosible that we could see-
Notre Dame's top wins-
10-2 Michigan St
10-2 USC
9-2 Miami
10-3 Stanford(P12 champions)

Clemson's top wins-
11-2 Va Tech(x2)
8-4 Auburn

before you say NC State- they are on both teams resumes.

Sorry but no chance in hell Notre Dame gets left out there. Not with that resume.

(10-23-2017 02:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Like I said- what wins does Clemson really have? Auburn and Virginia Tech. That's it.

To your point that Clemson will get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Florida St didn't a few years ago.

FSU did get the benefit of the doubt a few years ago. In 2014, many thought that they played a very soft schedule, not deserving of a top ranking. But, they and Oregon were the only two teams that were in the top 4 of the CFP rankings for all the weeks the rankings were produced. They were in like Flynn the whole time.

There was never any way an ACC champ and defending national champ FSU was going to be left out of the playoffs. It would have seemed ridiculous had they done so.

Likewise, the CFP knows that leaving out an ACC champ Clemson, given Clemson's playoff performance the last couple years, would cast a cloud of doubt over the validity of the playoffs.

(10-23-2017 03:01 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 12:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 07:36 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  All things being equal, I'd find it hard to believe that the committee would take:

A Clemson team that lost to a average Syracuse team

Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

Agreed. If Clemson wins out, the only teams they will possibly be ranked behind are (1) SEC champ, (2) B1G champ, and (3) Big 12 champ, if the Big 12 champ is an undefeated TCU.

Nobody else, and that's only three teams, so they will get in.

TCU isn't going undefeated

Why do people always chime in with this? The issue is WHAT IF they do go undefeated? Not WHETHER they will. I got the same thing over in the AAC board. We were discussing what would happen with the NY6 bid IF Stanford won out, and people kept chiming in with "Stanford isn't going to win out".

I don't think TCU will either, but it's beside the freaking point!

(10-23-2017 11:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 11:16 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 08:48 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think the ACC may be in trouble as well. Miami has not had a convincing win recently while playing weaker teams, and Miami still has Virginia Tech and Notre Dame left on their schedule. Maybe Clemson or Miami makes it to 12-1, but another loss by either of those two prior to December will be problematic.

wtf?? Miami has beaten FSU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse (the team that just beat Clemson)

If you are going to discount an FSU win, well then Alabama hasn't played anyone

When Syracuse is a reason you are using in football- you don't have much....

Alabama will get more credit for beating FSU than Miami will. Why? Alabama beat them with their regular QB. Miami won't.

At this point in the season, Syracuse is a good win...they just beat Clemson (duh)

Miami has Notre Dame and Virginia Tech still on the schedule...they won't have any problem legitimizing their schedule. Plus, they'll most likely get Clemson in the ACC Champs game.

So I'm not sure what the criticism of Miami is...any criticism of their schedule is weak and stupid, especially when they are playing some of the top teams in the country. They literally have #9 and #13 still on the schedule, and will probably play #7

I doubt they even win all those games, so it will probably be a moot conversation anyways

(10-23-2017 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Like I said- what wins does Clemson really have? Auburn and Virginia Tech. That's it.

To your point that Clemson will get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Florida St didn't a few years ago.

FSU did get the benefit of the doubt a few years ago. In 2014, many thought that they played a very soft schedule, not deserving of a top ranking. But, they and Oregon were the only two teams that were in the top 4 of the CFP rankings for all the weeks the rankings were produced. They were in like Flynn the whole time.

There was never any way an ACC champ and defending national champ FSU was going to be left out of the playoffs. It would have seemed ridiculous had they done so.

Likewise, the CFP knows that leaving out an ACC champ Clemson, given Clemson's playoff performance the last couple years, would cast a cloud of doubt over the playoffs.

no, the CFP knows that leaving out Notre Dame at 11-1 would cast an even larger cloud of doubt over the playoffs. Especially if the final results are what I had.

(10-23-2017 03:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Like I said- what wins does Clemson really have? Auburn and Virginia Tech. That's it.

To your point that Clemson will get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Florida St didn't a few years ago.

FSU did get the benefit of the doubt a few years ago. In 2014, many thought that they played a very soft schedule, not deserving of a top ranking. But, they and Oregon were the only two teams that were in the top 4 of the CFP rankings for all the weeks the rankings were produced. They were in like Flynn the whole time.

There was never any way an ACC champ and defending national champ FSU was going to be left out of the playoffs. It would have seemed ridiculous had they done so.

Likewise, the CFP knows that leaving out an ACC champ Clemson, given Clemson's playoff performance the last couple years, would cast a cloud of doubt over the playoffs.

no, the CFP knows that leaving out Notre Dame at 11-1 would cast an even larger cloud of doubt over the playoffs. Especially if the final results are what I had.

If it comes down to one-loss ND vs one-loss Clemson, i sure hope you are correct and ND gets the playoff spot.

But I'm 94% certain you are wrong.

(10-23-2017 03:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:01 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 12:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

Agreed. If Clemson wins out, the only teams they will possibly be ranked behind are (1) SEC champ, (2) B1G champ, and (3) Big 12 champ, if the Big 12 champ is an undefeated TCU.

Nobody else, and that's only three teams, so they will get in.

TCU isn't going undefeated

Why do people always chime in with this? The issue is WHAT IF they do go undefeated? Not WHETHER they will. I got the same thing over in the AAC board. We were discussing what would happen with the NY6 bid IF Stanford won out, and people kept chiming in with "Stanford isn't going to win out".

I don't think TCU will either, but it's beside the freaking point!

So if TCU wins out, they'll have beaten:
@ Iowa State
Texas
@ Oklahoma
@ Texas Tech
Baylor
Probably Oklahoma in a rematch

That would be quite the feat. I'd imagine they'd be #2, assuming Bama didn't lose. They would definitely punch their ticket to the playoff.

I like TCU...I'll be pulling for them honestly. I hope I'm wrong in my prediction

(10-23-2017 03:09 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 11:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 11:16 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 08:48 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think the ACC may be in trouble as well. Miami has not had a convincing win recently while playing weaker teams, and Miami still has Virginia Tech and Notre Dame left on their schedule. Maybe Clemson or Miami makes it to 12-1, but another loss by either of those two prior to December will be problematic.

wtf?? Miami has beaten FSU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse (the team that just beat Clemson)

If you are going to discount an FSU win, well then Alabama hasn't played anyone

When Syracuse is a reason you are using in football- you don't have much....

Alabama will get more credit for beating FSU than Miami will. Why? Alabama beat them with their regular QB. Miami won't.

At this point in the season, Syracuse is a good win...they just beat Clemson (duh)

Miami has Notre Dame and Virginia Tech still on the schedule...they won't have any problem legitimizing their schedule. Plus, they'll most likely get Clemson in the ACC Champs game.

So I'm not sure what the criticism of Miami is...any criticism of their schedule is weak and stupid, especially when they are playing some of the top teams in the country. They literally have #9 and #13 still on the schedule, and will probably play #7

I doubt they even win all those games, so it will probably be a moot conversation anyways

Syracuse is a good win? We're supposed to forget their record? They are a 4-4 football team and could easily miss a bowl game. Florida St is 2-4 and they could easily miss a bowl game. Best win so far is vs a 4-2 Georgia Tech team that can easily finish 6-5. I do agree they have a lot of stuff on their plate, but right now, to look at them with a lot of questions is extremely reasonable.

(10-23-2017 03:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Like I said- what wins does Clemson really have? Auburn and Virginia Tech. That's it.

To your point that Clemson will get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Florida St didn't a few years ago.

FSU did get the benefit of the doubt a few years ago. In 2014, many thought that they played a very soft schedule, not deserving of a top ranking. But, they and Oregon were the only two teams that were in the top 4 of the CFP rankings for all the weeks the rankings were produced. They were in like Flynn the whole time.

There was never any way an ACC champ and defending national champ FSU was going to be left out of the playoffs. It would have seemed ridiculous had they done so.

Likewise, the CFP knows that leaving out an ACC champ Clemson, given Clemson's playoff performance the last couple years, would cast a cloud of doubt over the playoffs.

no, the CFP knows that leaving out Notre Dame at 11-1 would cast an even larger cloud of doubt over the playoffs. Especially if the final results are what I had.

If it comes down to one-loss ND vs one-loss Clemson, i sure hope you are correct and ND gets the playoff spot.

But I'm 94% certain you are wrong.

it would all depend on the other 2 spots and who was available....

we know the PAC 12 champ is on the outside looking

We know that most likely Alabama and a 1-loss/undefeated B1G Champ would be in

The only teams that could make it come down to Notre Dame OR Clemson (assuming they win out) are Oklahoma or TCU (the Big XII champ). TCU needs to go undefeated, and Oklahoma needs to win out.

I honestly think Notre Dame would have a slight edge, but it's not clear cut at all...

(10-23-2017 03:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Like I said- what wins does Clemson really have? Auburn and Virginia Tech. That's it.

To your point that Clemson will get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Florida St didn't a few years ago.

FSU did get the benefit of the doubt a few years ago. In 2014, many thought that they played a very soft schedule, not deserving of a top ranking. But, they and Oregon were the only two teams that were in the top 4 of the CFP rankings for all the weeks the rankings were produced. They were in like Flynn the whole time.

There was never any way an ACC champ and defending national champ FSU was going to be left out of the playoffs. It would have seemed ridiculous had they done so.

Likewise, the CFP knows that leaving out an ACC champ Clemson, given Clemson's playoff performance the last couple years, would cast a cloud of doubt over the playoffs.

no, the CFP knows that leaving out Notre Dame at 11-1 would cast an even larger cloud of doubt over the playoffs. Especially if the final results are what I had.

If it comes down to one-loss ND vs one-loss Clemson, i sure hope you are correct and ND gets the playoff spot.

But I'm 94% certain you are wrong.

Now, this is a scenario which could get the expansion of the playoff kickstarted really fast.

and man- you talk about something.... think about how much would be riding for the ACC....
Clemson made it- ND goes Orange Bowl and So ACC gets 2nd team in Orange and 40 million (vs 27.5 million if ND is in playoff).

talking literally a 33.5 million dollar decision for the ACC.

(10-23-2017 03:13 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:01 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 12:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

Agreed. If Clemson wins out, the only teams they will possibly be ranked behind are (1) SEC champ, (2) B1G champ, and (3) Big 12 champ, if the Big 12 champ is an undefeated TCU.

Nobody else, and that's only three teams, so they will get in.

TCU isn't going undefeated

Why do people always chime in with this? The issue is WHAT IF they do go undefeated? Not WHETHER they will. I got the same thing over in the AAC board. We were discussing what would happen with the NY6 bid IF Stanford won out, and people kept chiming in with "Stanford isn't going to win out".

I don't think TCU will either, but it's beside the freaking point!

So if TCU wins out, they'll have beaten:
@ Iowa State
Texas
@ Oklahoma
@ Texas Tech
Baylor
Probably Oklahoma in a rematch

That would be quite the feat. I'd imagine they'd be #2, assuming Bama didn't lose. They would definitely punch their ticket to the playoff.

I like TCU...I'll be pulling for them honestly. I hope I'm wrong in my prediction

Me too. I think they got a bit of the shaft a couple years ago when they lost out on the playoffs because of that crazy Baylor loss, so i'd like to see them run the table too.

But beating Oklahoma twice will be a very tall order. Their odds of doing so are pretty low.

(10-23-2017 03:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 02:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Like I said- what wins does Clemson really have? Auburn and Virginia Tech. That's it.

To your point that Clemson will get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Florida St didn't a few years ago.

FSU did get the benefit of the doubt a few years ago. In 2014, many thought that they played a very soft schedule, not deserving of a top ranking. But, they and Oregon were the only two teams that were in the top 4 of the CFP rankings for all the weeks the rankings were produced. They were in like Flynn the whole time.

There was never any way an ACC champ and defending national champ FSU was going to be left out of the playoffs. It would have seemed ridiculous had they done so.

Likewise, the CFP knows that leaving out an ACC champ Clemson, given Clemson's playoff performance the last couple years, would cast a cloud of doubt over the playoffs.

no, the CFP knows that leaving out Notre Dame at 11-1 would cast an even larger cloud of doubt over the playoffs. Especially if the final results are what I had.

If it comes down to one-loss ND vs one-loss Clemson, i sure hope you are correct and ND gets the playoff spot.

But I'm 94% certain you are wrong.

Now, this is a scenario which could get the expansion of the playoff kickstarted really fast.

and man- you talk about something.... think about how much would be riding for the ACC....
Clemson made it- ND goes Orange Bowl and So ACC gets 2nd team in Orange and 40 million (vs 27.5 million if ND is in playoff).

talking literally a 33.5 million dollar decision for the ACC.

Agreed, if it comes down to ND vs Clemson, it will be very controversial either way, which would hurt the current CFP arrangement.

And wow, those are some stunning implications for the ACC there all the way around.

(10-23-2017 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 03:09 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 11:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 11:16 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 08:48 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think the ACC may be in trouble as well. Miami has not had a convincing win recently while playing weaker teams, and Miami still has Virginia Tech and Notre Dame left on their schedule. Maybe Clemson or Miami makes it to 12-1, but another loss by either of those two prior to December will be problematic.

wtf?? Miami has beaten FSU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse (the team that just beat Clemson)

If you are going to discount an FSU win, well then Alabama hasn't played anyone

When Syracuse is a reason you are using in football- you don't have much....

Alabama will get more credit for beating FSU than Miami will. Why? Alabama beat them with their regular QB. Miami won't.

At this point in the season, Syracuse is a good win...they just beat Clemson (duh)

Miami has Notre Dame and Virginia Tech still on the schedule...they won't have any problem legitimizing their schedule. Plus, they'll most likely get Clemson in the ACC Champs game.

So I'm not sure what the criticism of Miami is...any criticism of their schedule is weak and stupid, especially when they are playing some of the top teams in the country. They literally have #9 and #13 still on the schedule, and will probably play #7

I doubt they even win all those games, so it will probably be a moot conversation anyways

Syracuse is a good win? We're supposed to forget their record? They are a 4-4 football team and could easily miss a bowl game. Florida St is 2-4 and they could easily miss a bowl game. Best win so far is vs a 4-2 Georgia Tech team that can easily finish 6-5. I do agree they have a lot of stuff on their plate, but right now, to look at them with a lot of questions is extremely reasonable.

ya I think Syracuse is a good team at this point in the season...They have a horrible loss, but an excellent win. Their other losses are to top 25 teams Miami, NC State and LSU.

Saying their 4-4 is bad in the same argument that you are criticizing Miami's schedule is stupid though...they ARE 4-4 because Miami BEAT them. So Miami's schedule would be better if Syracuse had won and was 5-3? that's dumb

Maybe the point we should be trivializing is not whether a 1-loss Clemson gets in vs a 1-loss Notre Dame but how Notre Dame would stack up against any of the 3 potential Big 12 champs with one loss. At this point in the game I think the ACC champ and Notre Dame would have stronger resumes. Oklahoma and Oklahoma St already have losses and I have a strong suspicion TCU will have a loss by the end of the regular season if not in a rematch against an Oklahoma school in the Big 12 title game.

Might I point out that a one loss Big 12 champ is far more likely to get left out of the playoff than either a one loss ACC champ or Notre Dame.

The Big 12 has exactly 4 wins against P5 opponents--
Oklahoma over Ohio St
Texas Tech over Ariz St
TCU over Arkansas
Oklahoma St over Pitt

Pitt and Arkansas aren't even going bowling in likelihood. I don't see TCU going undefeated.

(10-23-2017 04:06 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Might I point out that a one loss Big 12 champ is far more likely to get left out of the playoff than either a one loss ACC champ or Notre Dame.

The Big 12 has exactly 4 wins against P5 opponents--
Oklahoma over Ohio St
Texas Tech over Ariz St
TCU over Arkansas
Oklahoma St over Pitt

Pitt and Arkansas aren't even going bowling in likelihood. I don't see TCU going undefeated.

totally agree. Only thing would be if Oklahoma is the team- they're going to be really interesting....