Best case scenario: Alabama decides to protest on no G5s being allowed into the playoff, and gives their slot (and payout) to Memphis. We hold Clemson scoreless in the championship, and UTK is forced to pay AAC exit fees as we replace Ole Miss in the SEC when the NCAA shuts down their football program. Thus starts our 25 year streak of football national championships.

(10-16-2017 10:27 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 09:09 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:54 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:51 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:05 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  Yeah, well, UCF's SOS will get better as the year goes on, so will ours if we get to the CCG. And as long as we consistently have 3 ranked teams in the AAC, we will be in the conversation. You can have your opinion, but that is all it is. An opinion.

UCF has the displeasure of playing at Navy this weekend and they will come out with a very deflated team.

Tigers have the only resume good enough to make it to playoff round and they cannot make it due to their losing already. Out SOS is 27th far and away the toughest in the AAC among the 4 contending teams. You have teams with higher SOS but all are in the bottom half of the standings


SOS
Memphis 27th
UCF 72nd
Navy 84th
USF 212th


Do not be too surprised if the AAC has zero undefeated teams next week. UCF has to go and play at Navy and USF travels to Tulane. Tulane blew Tulsa out of the stadium two weeks ago and then Tulsa turned around and did the same thing to Houston this week.

Yes, all of what you say here in this post is true (well... I'll take your word for it, even though 212th for USF is a little suspect since there are only 130 teams in FBS, and you will never convince me there are that many teams in FCS that have a tougher schedule than any FBS team). But the title of this thread is CLEARLY the Best case scenario. So we are discussing the .... wait for it..... best case scenario.

And I say that to say this. I don't think we (the AAC) will get a team in the playoff. Ever. Not unless we join the P6 (including all the TV contract upgrades and NYD bowl contracts that would require). But I am at least willing to admit that I may be wrong, and it actually COULD happen. Not that it WILL... but that it COULD.

ETA: Oh, and could you please post a link to your SOS metrics.

Agree on the could.

In 2015, the year Memphis beat OM and was 13th in the initial CFP poll, had the Tigers won out, they would have been in serious conversations at least.

The formula would generally have to require a hopeful to have a preseason ranking, beat at least one legit (ranked) P5 team during the season, go undefeated and then play a highly ranked conference opponent in their conference title game.

UCF lacked the preseason ranking, USF lacks the name P5 win.

If UCF and USF run the table then they might only be the only two teams (except Bama) undefeated at the time. Both likely top 10 or better. Winner probably moves into top 8 and would benefit by Memphis running the table. Beat Memphis (top 15 if we win out) and after the last poll, the Uc/sF would be top 6.

Likely just miss out because each team didn't meet the pre-req listed above.

Sucks for UCF that their game vs. Georgia Tech was cancelled.

In a perfect just world maybe, but we do not live in a perfect just world. The P5 bias is just too strong and even if USF or UCF runs the table they will still have a boat load of 1 loss P5 school listed ahead of them if not some 2 loss P5 schools.

Last year you had three teams with 3 losses in the top 10 while undefeated Western Michigan was 15th

The odds are better that a flying saucer would land on the Mall in DC and a man gets out and says my name is Klaatu, than any G5 school making into the playoffs as long as there are only 4 teams.

Nah.

Look at UCF. If they run the table this year and win their access bowl game they would likely finish the season ranked top 5.

They only lose 2 guys on offense and 4 on defense, so they would likely be a top 10 preseason team next year.

They play Pitt and UNC next year. Win out and hope that USF is good and that one of Navy, Memphis, or UH can be T25 and they are in the playoff.

(10-15-2017 08:14 PM)72Tiger Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 06:25 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:59 AM)72Tiger Wrote:  10-1 vs 11-0 as we each had a game cancelled.

I forgot.

The missing game may make a difference to the Access Bowl determination unfortunately.

Doubtful.

(10-16-2017 10:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Look at UCF. If they run the table this year and win their access bowl game they would likely finish the season ranked top 5.

They only lose 2 guys on offense and 4 on defense, so they would likely be a top 10 preseason team next year.

They play Pitt and UNC next year. Win out and hope that USF is good and that one of Navy, Memphis, or UH can be T25 and they are in the playoff.

I agree, and I think ncrdbl1 is discounting the strength and rising respect of the AAC compared to the MAC or any other G4.

It certainly needs to be a multi-year campaign to get into the playoff. Being good enough one random year is not going to do it. Like, an AAC team needs to win the Access bowl every year for at least 3 years to totally crush the G4 into giving up and dropping a level and forming their own championship.

Agree on the multi-year performance, but it's threading the needle.

IMO, a G5 has to beat two top P5's and go undefeated. Best chance was Houston in '16. Coming off 13-1 in '15, beat Oklahoma and Louisville, both of who were ranked in Top 10, IIRC. But Houston couldn't take care of business and lost conference games, including to our Tigers.

It's a real long shot. Like once every 20 years. But enough of a chance that the P5s can't be sued for excluding the G5s.

(10-16-2017 11:14 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Look at UCF. If they run the table this year and win their access bowl game they would likely finish the season ranked top 5.

They only lose 2 guys on offense and 4 on defense, so they would likely be a top 10 preseason team next year.

They play Pitt and UNC next year. Win out and hope that USF is good and that one of Navy, Memphis, or UH can be T25 and they are in the playoff.

I agree, and I think ncrdbl1 is discounting the strength and rising respect of the AAC compared to the MAC or any other G4.

It certainly needs to be a multi-year campaign to get into the playoff. Being good enough one random year is not going to do it. Like, an AAC team needs to win the Access bowl every year for at least 3 years to totally crush the G4 into giving up and dropping a level and forming their own championship.

Yup.

The notion put forth by car guy was that it was alien-invasion impossible for all those things to come together. It IS almost impossible--that's the point. Going undefeated is hard. That's why Michigan hasn't made it. Or USC. Or Texas. They have to, at worst, only lose one game playing five top 25 teams a year AND beating all the other teams they need to beat.

The bottom line is that only eight teams out of the entire P5 have made the 4-team playoff in three years.

Hell, no team other than Bama from the SEC has made it and unless UGa runs the table, it's doubtful any other will.

So essentially it is just as ridiculous for any other SEC team except for Bama to make the playoff as it is for a G6 school to make it.

Does Memphis have a better chance than Wake? Or Purdue? Or Kentucky?

(10-16-2017 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:14 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Look at UCF. If they run the table this year and win their access bowl game they would likely finish the season ranked top 5.

They only lose 2 guys on offense and 4 on defense, so they would likely be a top 10 preseason team next year.

They play Pitt and UNC next year. Win out and hope that USF is good and that one of Navy, Memphis, or UH can be T25 and they are in the playoff.

I agree, and I think ncrdbl1 is discounting the strength and rising respect of the AAC compared to the MAC or any other G4.

It certainly needs to be a multi-year campaign to get into the playoff. Being good enough one random year is not going to do it. Like, an AAC team needs to win the Access bowl every year for at least 3 years to totally crush the G4 into giving up and dropping a level and forming their own championship.

Yup.

The notion put forth by car guy was that it was alien invasion impossible for all those things to come together.

The bottom line is that only eight teams out of the entire P5 have made the 4-team playoff in three years.

Hell, no team other than Bama from the SEC has made it and unless UGa runs the table, it's doubtful any other will.

So essentially it is just as ridiculous for any other SEC team except for Bama to make the playoff as it is for a G6 school to make it.

Does Memphis have a better chance than Wake? Or Purdue? Or Kentucky?

So I guessed it would happen once every 20 years, Saluki. What is your guess? Once every 10 years?

Problem with your Bama analogy, IMO, is that we have only had 3 CFP's, so can't really make conclusions yet. And, unlike Memphis or any G5, the team that lost to Bama in the SEC conference championship game in '14, '15 and '16 had the path to the CFP. Beat Bama and they are in. G5's schools do not have this clear path.

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

They needed to beat Georgia Tech by 30...If they played that game with that outcome then it would be a possibility. Beating other ranked G5 teams means very little to the committee

(10-16-2017 11:46 AM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

They needed to beat Georgia Tech by 30...If they played that game with that outcome then it would be a possibility. Beating other ranked G5 teams means very little to the committee

I don't think 30 would have been enough Macgar. A P5 needs to start the season ranked at least in the top 15. Too much ground to make up for UCF, who started unranked.

(10-16-2017 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:14 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Look at UCF. If they run the table this year and win their access bowl game they would likely finish the season ranked top 5.

They only lose 2 guys on offense and 4 on defense, so they would likely be a top 10 preseason team next year.

They play Pitt and UNC next year. Win out and hope that USF is good and that one of Navy, Memphis, or UH can be T25 and they are in the playoff.

I agree, and I think ncrdbl1 is discounting the strength and rising respect of the AAC compared to the MAC or any other G4.

It certainly needs to be a multi-year campaign to get into the playoff. Being good enough one random year is not going to do it. Like, an AAC team needs to win the Access bowl every year for at least 3 years to totally crush the G4 into giving up and dropping a level and forming their own championship.

Yup.

The notion put forth by car guy was that it was alien-invasion impossible for all those things to come together. It IS almost impossible--that's the point. Going undefeated is hard. That's why Michigan hasn't made it. Or USC. Or Texas. They have to, at worst, only lose one game playing five top 25 teams a year AND beating all the other teams they need to beat.

The bottom line is that only eight teams out of the entire P5 have made the 4-team playoff in three years.

Hell, no team other than Bama from the SEC has made it and unless UGa runs the table, it's doubtful any other will.

So essentially it is just as ridiculous for any other SEC team except for Bama to make the playoff as it is for a G6 school to make it.

Does Memphis have a better chance than Wake? Or Purdue? Or Kentucky?

Don't think G5 gets in over a 1 loss P5 champion unless they have a win over a top 10 P5 team...

I do believe they will get in over a 1 loss non-champion (Not Alabama)

I believe we would have made it a few years ago if Ole Miss wins the SEC west and we go undefeated...that would have been the perfect storm.

(10-16-2017 11:46 AM)Tigx Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:14 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Look at UCF. If they run the table this year and win their access bowl game they would likely finish the season ranked top 5.

They only lose 2 guys on offense and 4 on defense, so they would likely be a top 10 preseason team next year.

They play Pitt and UNC next year. Win out and hope that USF is good and that one of Navy, Memphis, or UH can be T25 and they are in the playoff.

I agree, and I think ncrdbl1 is discounting the strength and rising respect of the AAC compared to the MAC or any other G4.

It certainly needs to be a multi-year campaign to get into the playoff. Being good enough one random year is not going to do it. Like, an AAC team needs to win the Access bowl every year for at least 3 years to totally crush the G4 into giving up and dropping a level and forming their own championship.

Yup.

The notion put forth by car guy was that it was alien invasion impossible for all those things to come together.

The bottom line is that only eight teams out of the entire P5 have made the 4-team playoff in three years.

Hell, no team other than Bama from the SEC has made it and unless UGa runs the table, it's doubtful any other will.

So essentially it is just as ridiculous for any other SEC team except for Bama to make the playoff as it is for a G6 school to make it.

Does Memphis have a better chance than Wake? Or Purdue? Or Kentucky?

So I guessed it would happen once every 20 years, Saluki. What is your guess? Once every 10 years?

Problem with your Bama analogy, IMO, is that we have only had 3 CFP's, so can't really make conclusions yet. And, unlike Memphis or any G5, the team that lost to Bama in the SEC conference championship game in '14, '15 and '16 had the path to the CFP. Beat Bama and they are in. G5's schools do not have this clear path.

I think that it's equally as difficult for any team who isn't consistently and (recently) historically good.

EVERY team who is in the Top 10 right now has been ranked in the top ten at some point in the last 5 years (not counting this season, of course).

OM and MSU had historical seasons (halfway through) but couldn't maintain that momentum the whole year.

For a school in the SEC, B10, and even the B12 a team likely has to play four or five T25 teams (and at least two of those top 10) and has to win all or all but one to get a shot at the CFP--and can't have any slip ups OOC or vs. bad teams (see Penn State last year).

In the BCS and CFP era (1998-present) only 16 programs have played for the "title." That is 38 possible teams (19 years x 2 teams) but only 16 have played.

The question as a Memphis (or G6) fan is: "Do you like your chances better than Wake, or Purdue, or Kansas, or Oregon State?"

Does Memphis have a better chance of picking off a solid P5 school OOC, then running the table in the American, or does Purdue have a better chance of beating Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the same season?

Purdue is in the weaker West side of the Big 10, so don't have to play UM, Sparty, Buckeyes and Penn St. every year, but I get your point. I would say Purdue, unfortunately. At least Purdue has a clear, defined path. Win West, win CCG, and they are in.

And Memphis only scheduling one P5 a year has all but eliminated us, I hate to say. Not that any G5's chances are good anyway.

Yes, maybe our chances are as good as Wake, Vandy, Oregon St. . ., but they basically have no chance also.

(10-16-2017 12:27 PM)Tigx Wrote:  Purdue is in the weaker West side of the Big 10, so don't have to play UM, Sparty, Buckeyes and Penn St. every year, but I get your point. I would say Purdue, unfortunately. At least Purdue has a clear, defined path. Win West, win CCG, and they are in.

And Memphis only scheduling one P5 a year has all but eliminated us, I hate to say. Not that any G5's chances are good anyway.

Yes, maybe our chances are as good as Wake, Vandy, Oregon St. . ., but they basically have no chance also.

I agree Memphis needs to play two P5 schools annually (not to start that discussion again). But I believe the current Memphis scheduling logic is simply to have a shot at the NY6 bowl, nothing more. And apparently the current admin philosophy of playing one P5 is in their opinion the best course.

But, taking that logic... let's take Houston last season. They played two ranked P5 teams and won both, but injuries took their toll when they lost to SMU. Not to mention, a bit of ego because they were Houston and had beaten Oklahoma.

The week after they destroyed a high ranked Louisville, they were gassed by Memphis and fell behind early and had to try and catch up the whole game.

Yes, if they had been undefeated, they MIGHT have had a chance at a playoff... but look at the playoffs. Last season Bama and Clemson were automatics. Ohio State got in even if they didn't win the Big10 because of their schedule. It was between Penn State and Washington, both conference champs to see who was getting in. Had Houston been undefeated, who would they have replaced?!! Answer, nobody. You aren't leaving out THREE P5 Conference Champs for a G5 school.

An undefeated G5 team from the AAC, or even one loss champ from the AAC is getting the Access Bowl slot almost every year. An undefeated G5 team, even beating two HIGHLY ranked P5 teams would make the playoff if FOUR P5 Conference Champs had at least two losses. So, saying you are wanting to schedule two P5 schools for a shot at the playoff is like saying you would rather bet on the Powerball lottery than play a couple of hands of poker. Those odds are just horrible.

(10-16-2017 12:32 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 12:27 PM)Tigx Wrote:  Purdue is in the weaker West side of the Big 10, so don't have to play UM, Sparty, Buckeyes and Penn St. every year, but I get your point. I would say Purdue, unfortunately. At least Purdue has a clear, defined path. Win West, win CCG, and they are in.

And Memphis only scheduling one P5 a year has all but eliminated us, I hate to say. Not that any G5's chances are good anyway.

Yes, maybe our chances are as good as Wake, Vandy, Oregon St. . ., but they basically have no chance also.

I agree Memphis needs to play two P5 schools annually (not to start that discussion again). But I believe the current Memphis scheduling logic is simply to have a shot at the NY6 bowl, nothing more. And apparently the current admin philosophy of playing one P5 is in their opinion the best course.

Here is the ONLY reason for scheduling multiple P5s, but the reason is all but moot because of the P5s. If EVERY team in the AAC played two P5s each season to increase the viability of the AAC. That is a reason I could understand, but the conference wouldn't because it would likely do more harm than good.

The logic of going after the guaranteed bowl as opposed to the almost guaranteed to not go to playoff isn't flawed logic. That is the worst possible reason to schedule multiple P5 games.

Like Atlanta, don't want to rehash the 2 P5 vs. 1 P5 argument. But I wouldn't schedule 2 P5s for the reason of increasing our admittedly slim odds to make the CFPs.

My reason is by scheduling 2 P5s every year, we get at least one decent home OOC game each year, instead of what we are looking at next September.

If only there was a formula for getting in. If it really were metrics driven. But it's a committee. They can do what they want, when they want. Remember that first year when the B12 actually had 2 teams in the top 5 going into conference championship week? They didn't play a game and had 2 teams who got leapfrogged. That's what would happen to any P5 team. We would get leapfrogged with an explanation of the SOS and difficulty of playing a P5 championship. This year, the excuse is easy for them. UCF, USF, and us will all be short one game. The committee will use the same 13th data point excuse they used against the B12.

I won't say never. But the only scenario is:
we have an undefeated champion at 13-0
our champ has a top 25 P5 OOC win
our conference has at least 2 other teams ranked
there are no more than 3 P5 teams with less than 2 losses

And Notre Dame has at least 2 losses that year as well.

Beat Houston baby.

(10-16-2017 10:33 AM)aardWolf Wrote:  Best case scenario: Alabama decides to protest on no G5s being allowed into the playoff, and gives their slot (and payout) to Memphis. We hold Clemson scoreless in the championship, and UTK is forced to pay AAC exit fees as we replace Ole Miss in the SEC when the NCAA shuts down their football program. Thus starts our 25 year streak of football national championships.

This