11-1 Memphis vs. 12-0 UCF in AAC Championship Game.

Let the curb stomping begin!

10-1 vs 11-0 as we each had a game cancelled.

UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

Sounds like a trip to Orlando to me.

(10-15-2017 09:59 AM)72Tiger Wrote:  10-1 vs 11-0 as we each had a game cancelled.

I forgot.

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

USF's ooc will hurt them. UCF would have a chance if MD pulled some upsets.

(10-15-2017 06:25 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:59 AM)72Tiger Wrote:  10-1 vs 11-0 as we each had a game cancelled.

I forgot.

The missing game may make a difference to the Access Bowl determination unfortunately.

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

I love people and there absolutes... "This will NEVER happen... that will ALWAYS happen..."

2 years ago should be proof enough for people to believe it could eventually happen if things break right. Right up until we lost to Navy, the national pundits were having to admit there was a chance if we ran the table.

(10-15-2017 08:14 PM)72Tiger Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 06:25 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:59 AM)72Tiger Wrote:  10-1 vs 11-0 as we each had a game cancelled.

I forgot.

The missing game may make a difference to the Access Bowl determination unfortunately.

It could only help us. Our strength of schedule would have taken a hit if we had to play GS.

(10-15-2017 09:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

I love people and there absolutes... "This will NEVER happen... that will ALWAYS happen..."

2 years ago should be proof enough for people to believe it could eventually happen if things break right. Right up until we lost to Navy, the national pundits were having to admit there was a chance if we ran the table.

A few years back the Big 12 had two teams in AP and Coaches top 5 and got ZERO teams in the playoffs. SOS will always work against non P5 teams. Unless they go to 8 team playoff then non P5 teams will not qualify. A two loss P5 team will make it before an undefeated non P5 team.

SOS

USF 212
UCF 72

(10-15-2017 09:48 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

I love people and there absolutes... "This will NEVER happen... that will ALWAYS happen..."

2 years ago should be proof enough for people to believe it could eventually happen if things break right. Right up until we lost to Navy, the national pundits were having to admit there was a chance if we ran the table.

A few years back the Big 12 had two teams in AP and Coaches top 5 and got ZERO teams in the playoffs. SOS will always work against non P5 teams. Unless they go to 8 team playoff then non P5 teams will not qualify. A two loss P5 team will make it before an undefeated non P5 team.

SOS

USF 212
UCF 72

Yeah, well, UCF's SOS will get better as the year goes on, so will ours if we get to the CCG. And as long as we consistently have 3 ranked teams in the AAC, we will be in the conversation. You can have your opinion, but that is all it is. An opinion.

(10-15-2017 10:05 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:48 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

I love people and there absolutes... "This will NEVER happen... that will ALWAYS happen..."

2 years ago should be proof enough for people to believe it could eventually happen if things break right. Right up until we lost to Navy, the national pundits were having to admit there was a chance if we ran the table.

A few years back the Big 12 had two teams in AP and Coaches top 5 and got ZERO teams in the playoffs. SOS will always work against non P5 teams. Unless they go to 8 team playoff then non P5 teams will not qualify. A two loss P5 team will make it before an undefeated non P5 team.

SOS

USF 212
UCF 72

Yeah, well, UCF's SOS will get better as the year goes on, so will ours if we get to the CCG. And as long as we consistently have 3 ranked teams in the AAC, we will be in the conversation. You can have your opinion, but that is all it is. An opinion.

UCF has the displeasure of playing at Navy this weekend and they will come out with a very deflated team.

Tigers have the only resume good enough to make it to playoff round and they cannot make it due to their losing already. Out SOS is 27th far and away the toughest in the AAC among the 4 contending teams. You have teams with higher SOS but all are in the bottom half of the standings


SOS
Memphis 27th
UCF 72nd
Navy 84th
USF 212th


Do not be too surprised if the AAC has zero undefeated teams next week. UCF has to go and play at Navy and USF travels to Tulane. Tulane blew Tulsa out of the stadium two weeks ago and then Tulsa turned around and did the same thing to Houston this week.

(10-15-2017 10:51 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:05 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:48 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

I love people and there absolutes... "This will NEVER happen... that will ALWAYS happen..."

2 years ago should be proof enough for people to believe it could eventually happen if things break right. Right up until we lost to Navy, the national pundits were having to admit there was a chance if we ran the table.

A few years back the Big 12 had two teams in AP and Coaches top 5 and got ZERO teams in the playoffs. SOS will always work against non P5 teams. Unless they go to 8 team playoff then non P5 teams will not qualify. A two loss P5 team will make it before an undefeated non P5 team.

SOS

USF 212
UCF 72

Yeah, well, UCF's SOS will get better as the year goes on, so will ours if we get to the CCG. And as long as we consistently have 3 ranked teams in the AAC, we will be in the conversation. You can have your opinion, but that is all it is. An opinion.

UCF has the displeasure of playing at Navy this weekend and they will come out with a very deflated team.

Tigers have the only resume good enough to make it to playoff round and they cannot make it due to their losing already. Out SOS is 27th far and away the toughest in the AAC among the 4 contending teams. You have teams with higher SOS but all are in the bottom half of the standings


SOS
Memphis 27th
UCF 72nd
Navy 84th
USF 212th


Do not be too surprised if the AAC has zero undefeated teams next week. UCF has to go and play at Navy and USF travels to Tulane. Tulane blew Tulsa out of the stadium two weeks ago and then Tulsa turned around and did the same thing to Houston this week.

Yes, all of what you say here in this post is true (well... I'll take your word for it, even though 212th for USF is a little suspect since there are only 130 teams in FBS, and you will never convince me there are that many teams in FCS that have a tougher schedule than any FBS team). But the title of this thread is CLEARLY the Best case scenario. So we are discussing the .... wait for it..... best case scenario.

And I say that to say this. I don't think we (the AAC) will get a team in the playoff. Ever. Not unless we join the P6 (including all the TV contract upgrades and NYD bowl contracts that would require). But I am at least willing to admit that I may be wrong, and it actually COULD happen. Not that it WILL... but that it COULD.

ETA: Oh, and could you please post a link to your SOS metrics.

(10-15-2017 11:54 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:51 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:05 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:48 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  I love people and there absolutes... "This will NEVER happen... that will ALWAYS happen..."

2 years ago should be proof enough for people to believe it could eventually happen if things break right. Right up until we lost to Navy, the national pundits were having to admit there was a chance if we ran the table.

A few years back the Big 12 had two teams in AP and Coaches top 5 and got ZERO teams in the playoffs. SOS will always work against non P5 teams. Unless they go to 8 team playoff then non P5 teams will not qualify. A two loss P5 team will make it before an undefeated non P5 team.

SOS

USF 212
UCF 72

Yeah, well, UCF's SOS will get better as the year goes on, so will ours if we get to the CCG. And as long as we consistently have 3 ranked teams in the AAC, we will be in the conversation. You can have your opinion, but that is all it is. An opinion.

UCF has the displeasure of playing at Navy this weekend and they will come out with a very deflated team.

Tigers have the only resume good enough to make it to playoff round and they cannot make it due to their losing already. Out SOS is 27th far and away the toughest in the AAC among the 4 contending teams. You have teams with higher SOS but all are in the bottom half of the standings


SOS
Memphis 27th
UCF 72nd
Navy 84th
USF 212th


Do not be too surprised if the AAC has zero undefeated teams next week. UCF has to go and play at Navy and USF travels to Tulane. Tulane blew Tulsa out of the stadium two weeks ago and then Tulsa turned around and did the same thing to Houston this week.

Yes, all of what you say here in this post is true (well... I'll take your word for it, even though 212th for USF is a little suspect since there are only 130 teams in FBS, and you will never convince me there are that many teams in FCS that have a tougher schedule than any FBS team). But the title of this thread is CLEARLY the Best case scenario. So we are discussing the .... wait for it..... best case scenario.

And I say that to say this. I don't think we (the AAC) will get a team in the playoff. Ever. Not unless we join the P6 (including all the TV contract upgrades and NYD bowl contracts that would require). But I am at least willing to admit that I may be wrong, and it actually COULD happen. Not that it WILL... but that it COULD.

ETA: Oh, and could you please post a link to your SOS metrics.

Sagarin has this:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

(10-15-2017 09:48 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 06:26 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:53 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:43 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  UCF would be top 10 in this scenario with Mem as possibly top 15. It's possible, though not likely, that UCF could go to the playoff with a win

After BSU beat SDSU if both of us win out the winner of that game will be access bowl team. Absolutely no way a G5 team makes playoffs.

I can see USF or UCF sneaking in. Would need help.

I love people and there absolutes... "This will NEVER happen... that will ALWAYS happen..."

2 years ago should be proof enough for people to believe it could eventually happen if things break right. Right up until we lost to Navy, the national pundits were having to admit there was a chance if we ran the table.

A few years back the Big 12 had two teams in AP and Coaches top 5 and got ZERO teams in the playoffs. SOS will always work against non P5 teams. Unless they go to 8 team playoff then non P5 teams will not qualify. A two loss P5 team will make it before an undefeated non P5 team.

SOS

USF 212
UCF 72

Unique scenario that year. The SEC, Big 10, ACC and Pac 12 were punishing the Big 12 for not having a conference championship game...

(10-15-2017 11:54 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:51 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:05 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:48 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  I love people and there absolutes... "This will NEVER happen... that will ALWAYS happen..."

2 years ago should be proof enough for people to believe it could eventually happen if things break right. Right up until we lost to Navy, the national pundits were having to admit there was a chance if we ran the table.

A few years back the Big 12 had two teams in AP and Coaches top 5 and got ZERO teams in the playoffs. SOS will always work against non P5 teams. Unless they go to 8 team playoff then non P5 teams will not qualify. A two loss P5 team will make it before an undefeated non P5 team.

SOS

USF 212
UCF 72

Yeah, well, UCF's SOS will get better as the year goes on, so will ours if we get to the CCG. And as long as we consistently have 3 ranked teams in the AAC, we will be in the conversation. You can have your opinion, but that is all it is. An opinion.

UCF has the displeasure of playing at Navy this weekend and they will come out with a very deflated team.

Tigers have the only resume good enough to make it to playoff round and they cannot make it due to their losing already. Out SOS is 27th far and away the toughest in the AAC among the 4 contending teams. You have teams with higher SOS but all are in the bottom half of the standings


SOS
Memphis 27th
UCF 72nd
Navy 84th
USF 212th


Do not be too surprised if the AAC has zero undefeated teams next week. UCF has to go and play at Navy and USF travels to Tulane. Tulane blew Tulsa out of the stadium two weeks ago and then Tulsa turned around and did the same thing to Houston this week.

Yes, all of what you say here in this post is true (well... I'll take your word for it, even though 212th for USF is a little suspect since there are only 130 teams in FBS, and you will never convince me there are that many teams in FCS that have a tougher schedule than any FBS team). But the title of this thread is CLEARLY the Best case scenario. So we are discussing the .... wait for it..... best case scenario.

And I say that to say this. I don't think we (the AAC) will get a team in the playoff. Ever. Not unless we join the P6 (including all the TV contract upgrades and NYD bowl contracts that would require). But I am at least willing to admit that I may be wrong, and it actually COULD happen. Not that it WILL... but that it COULD.

ETA: Oh, and could you please post a link to your SOS metrics.

Agree on the could.

In 2015, the year Memphis beat OM and was 13th in the initial CFP poll, had the Tigers won out, they would have been in serious conversations at least.

The formula would generally have to require a hopeful to have a preseason ranking, beat at least one legit (ranked) P5 team during the season, go undefeated and then play a highly ranked conference opponent in their conference title game.

UCF lacked the preseason ranking, USF lacks the name P5 win.

If UCF and USF run the table then they might only be the only two teams (except Bama) undefeated at the time. Both likely top 10 or better. Winner probably moves into top 8 and would benefit by Memphis running the table. Beat Memphis (top 15 if we win out) and after the last poll, the Uc/sF would be top 6.

Likely just miss out because each team didn't meet the pre-req listed above.

Sucks for UCF that their game vs. Georgia Tech was cancelled.

(10-16-2017 09:09 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 11:54 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:51 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 10:05 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:48 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  A few years back the Big 12 had two teams in AP and Coaches top 5 and got ZERO teams in the playoffs. SOS will always work against non P5 teams. Unless they go to 8 team playoff then non P5 teams will not qualify. A two loss P5 team will make it before an undefeated non P5 team.

SOS

USF 212
UCF 72

Yeah, well, UCF's SOS will get better as the year goes on, so will ours if we get to the CCG. And as long as we consistently have 3 ranked teams in the AAC, we will be in the conversation. You can have your opinion, but that is all it is. An opinion.

UCF has the displeasure of playing at Navy this weekend and they will come out with a very deflated team.

Tigers have the only resume good enough to make it to playoff round and they cannot make it due to their losing already. Out SOS is 27th far and away the toughest in the AAC among the 4 contending teams. You have teams with higher SOS but all are in the bottom half of the standings


SOS
Memphis 27th
UCF 72nd
Navy 84th
USF 212th


Do not be too surprised if the AAC has zero undefeated teams next week. UCF has to go and play at Navy and USF travels to Tulane. Tulane blew Tulsa out of the stadium two weeks ago and then Tulsa turned around and did the same thing to Houston this week.

Yes, all of what you say here in this post is true (well... I'll take your word for it, even though 212th for USF is a little suspect since there are only 130 teams in FBS, and you will never convince me there are that many teams in FCS that have a tougher schedule than any FBS team). But the title of this thread is CLEARLY the Best case scenario. So we are discussing the .... wait for it..... best case scenario.

And I say that to say this. I don't think we (the AAC) will get a team in the playoff. Ever. Not unless we join the P6 (including all the TV contract upgrades and NYD bowl contracts that would require). But I am at least willing to admit that I may be wrong, and it actually COULD happen. Not that it WILL... but that it COULD.

ETA: Oh, and could you please post a link to your SOS metrics.

Agree on the could.

In 2015, the year Memphis beat OM and was 13th in the initial CFP poll, had the Tigers won out, they would have been in serious conversations at least.

The formula would generally have to require a hopeful to have a preseason ranking, beat at least one legit (ranked) P5 team during the season, go undefeated and then play a highly ranked conference opponent in their conference title game.

UCF lacked the preseason ranking, USF lacks the name P5 win.

If UCF and USF run the table then they might only be the only two teams (except Bama) undefeated at the time. Both likely top 10 or better. Winner probably moves into top 8 and would benefit by Memphis running the table. Beat Memphis (top 15 if we win out) and after the last poll, the Uc/sF would be top 6.

Likely just miss out because each team didn't meet the pre-req listed above.

Sucks for UCF that their game vs. Georgia Tech was cancelled.

In a perfect just world maybe, but we do not live in a perfect just world. The P5 bias is just too strong and even if USF or UCF runs the table they will still have a boat load of 1 loss P5 school listed ahead of them if not some 2 loss P5 schools.

Last year you had three teams with 3 losses in the top 10 while undefeated Western Michigan was 15th

The odds are better that a flying saucer would land on the Mall in DC and a man gets out and says my name is Klaatu, than any G5 school making into the playoffs as long as there are only 4 teams.