(10-07-2017 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Now Sagarin doesn't mean much this time of year. They still have some prior year's data. But its interesting at this point that the SEC is #5 among the P5.
1. ACC 78.59
2. Pac 12 78.41
3. Big 12 78.37
4. Big 10 78.10
5. SEC 77.64
6. AAC 67.22
7. MWC 62.84
Let's readdress this after today's games.
The CFP Hunt:
ACC: Divisional Front Runners: Clemson & Miami Dark Horses: Virginia Tech, N.C. State. And yes there are other 1 loss teams but I don't see them making it through with just 1 loss.
B1G: Divisional Front Runners: Wisconsin & Penn State Dark Horses: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State
But let's be honest. Wisconsin has one of the most unbelievably weak schedules in the nation and won't be tested until they play Michigan. But on the other hand Penn State has a difficult schedule and looks like the fit the bill as a CFP contender. They have an upcoming 3 week run of Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State however before they make any plans. So Penn State and the three dark horses have the opportunity to beat up on one another. Meanwhile Whisky could be the cheesy fat chick in the final four, (or they could be for real and merely untested).
Big 12: It's T.C.U. or bust. O.S.U. and Oklahoma could be dark horses but OU has a horrible loss today. O.S.U. lost to T.C.U. and needs to be able to avenge themselves in the CCG rematch. The rest looks pretty hopeless for contending for the CFP. Should O.S.U. stumble again it would probably be just T.C.U. carrying the banner and with the rest of the conference suffering from OOC key losses and the round robin a one loss T.C.U. is probably out as well.
The PAC: Either Washington or Washington State vs a one loss Utah or USC. So if either Washington team wins out and avoids an upset loss to the what will likely be a 2 loss other division champ then they get in. If they lose to a 2 loss other division champ it could be tough sledding for the PAC to find that spot. But the way things are looking I think UW winds up with that slot because they are pretty darned solid.
SEC: Divisional Champs? Probably Alabama and Georgia. Auburn if they continue to get better would be a dark horse. Kentucky is the only other team in the East with just one loss. But so far there seems to be a world of difference between Georgia and Kentucky. The takeaway from today is that A&M spotted a few chinks in Alabama's armor.
So for all of the stupid polls and computer rankings it is a Casablanca moment with minor exceptions. Most like the final 4 will be: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State. If that winds up being the case then what exactly do we have? We have the 4 that should have been in the CFP last year when Penn State got hosed by its conference. Other than that it will be the same song but the second verse. And for the others the only surprise would be Washington State and perhaps Miami, Georgia, or Auburn. Wisconsin is the team that only has to get up twice (Michigan and the CCG) to make it in. And then there is Notre Dame with their loss to Georgia and their beat down of Michigan. Michigan, Ohio State, T.C.U. and Oklahoma are all very familiar miss congeniality candidates.
The games are all we need to see how things shake out. It's only October and we can all hope to be surprised with some somewhat fresh faces in the CFP, but I have a feeling we've seen the mugshots of the favorites before.
And I'll be sure to revisit Sagarin from a conference perspective after the season.