(09-29-2017 10:52 PM)JRsec Wrote: (09-29-2017 10:23 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: My expectations are essentially this:
I think Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will stick together because that's OSU's only chance of remaining in a Power conference.
I also think Texas and Texas Tech will stick together for much the same reason. That and we've already seen TX politicians intervene on behalf of TTU in order to get them into the original Big 12.
The wildcard for me is the University of Houston. Remember that UT officials spoke publicly in favor of UH being added to the Big 12. I know the whole 'Houston to the Big 12' thing was more of a political ploy than a movement, I get that. It's also true though that UH now has considerable influence in the TX Legislature. While it seems that UT has given up on its effort to place a campus in Houston(in fact the Chancellor has ordered the land in Houston be sold off), it's also true the earnest effort to utilize that land on behalf of UT-Austin was snuffed out in the Legislature by a coalition interested in the long term prospects for UH.
Point being, I think there's a legitimate question here over whether there is enough power in the TX Legislature in support of UH's interests to force UT's hand during the next round of realignment. I think that is especially true given Baylor's predicament...
Baylor is likely done. It's their own fault, of course, for not cleaning up their house and for mitigating the problem rather than dealing swiftly and decisively. The rub here is that TX politicians are used to having a large number of their schools in Power conferences. This is good for business for a lot of reasons. More Power teams means more exposure and more money flowing into not only the school but the communities and state at large. When it comes to Baylor specifically, the Baptist church is an influential demographic in TX...like most Southern states. Well, if that population loses a little exposure by having their school relegated then it's not the end of the world for the state. It's a private school after all. But what if the same thing happens to TCU?
TCU got into the Big 12 on a Hail Mary because the league was going to fall apart without decent partners to help maintain its TV contract. TCU was likely helped by their relationship with UT and obviously their proximity to the powers of the league. Problem is that no other league is going to need TCU specifically. No other league is going to need an extra TX school to maintain its TV contract. That's not to say TCU isn't a potentially valuable piece, but I don't know how likely it is for any league to go very far outside their footprint for this particular fan base.
So to recap, Baylor is nuclear despite their influence and history. TCU is not a necessary piece for any league unless UT demands their presence. I don't know how likely that is, but I can't see UT really owing TCU any favors. Point is, I'm sure the TX politicians want as many TX schools as they can get into the Power leagues, but reality is probably going to hit TX much the same way it hit the SWC nearly 30 years ago.
Bottom line is that state leaders aren't going to want to lose the exposure, tourism, and overall economic benefit of having a large number of schools in Power leagues. Their hand will be forced to some degree, but that doesn't mean they don't have a play.
As far as I can see it, the easiest move TX leaders could make is to hamstring UT and perhaps even A&M into saving both Texas Tech and Houston. They both have significant influence in the Legislature for one. And being that they are state schools, the public education system of the state stands to benefit tremendously by their inclusion...especially Houston as they were not previously in.
I know that all seems a little crazy, but just consider this as one final point...the TX politicians have nothing to lose. The next round of realignment will likely cut out several schools from the highest ranks of college athletics and may set the stage for another culling at a later date. In other words, the stakes have never been higher. If the Legislature was willing to act decisively 20 years ago to preserve the fates of Texas Tech and Baylor then how much more might they be willing to do the same now?
In other words, when logical and influential people are faced with the same circumstances then what course of action do they take?
Texas / Texas Tech; Oklahoma / Oklahoma State; Kansas; Iowa State; West Virginia are the ones most likely to get out and into a P conference.
Why not Baylor and T.C.U. or even Houston? Because Texas has learned a valuable lesson. Too many P5 schools from the Lone Star state hurts their ability to recruit the number of talented players from their state that they want or need in a given year.
It was hard enough when it was just A&M. By promoting all of them the SWC cannibalized itself. Then adding Baylor and T.C.U. back into the mix of the Big 12 not only dried up Texas recruits for Texas, but cut into Oklahoma's distribution as well. Both suffered for the offense. I don't see them making that mistake a third time.
So if the SEC and ACC were both to move to 18 I think those 7 I listed might come into play plus 1 from somewhere else, like Notre Dame.
I get what you're saying and I certainly agree that from UT's perspective they don't really have anything to gain by promoting Houston or even saving Texas Tech for that matter. My contention would be that the Legislature might not give any great credence to those sorts of interests.
If the elected leaders in question were made up of nothing more than UT and A&M grads then I think it would turn out precisely as you are predicting. But TX is so diverse, so wealthy, and so populated with people representing different interests that I think there's a chance the politicians push the issue.
Of course I could be wrong, but I think it makes sense.
Let's look at it like this...
What if UT and A&M are "encouraged" to partner in order to save Texas Tech and Houston? What if the SEC is willing to go along with it as long as the other moves make financial sense? What if enough schools are cut off from TX recruiting that this new arrangement doesn't adversely affect UT or A&M's ability to bring down the biggest stars in TX?
For example, while Kansas makes a lot of sense for the SEC in certain respects, their program along with all the other Big 8 schools relied heavily on TX athletes. Nebraska and Colorado are already out of the picture. Let's say that the agreement is struck to keep Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State out of the picture as well. What about Oklahoma and Oklahoma State?
Well, Texas probably wants Oklahoma in the same league and Oklahoma probably needs Oklahoma State to come along so no ground gained there. If both Baylor and TCU are dropped then that's 2 programs out of the way. One is replaced by Houston in this scenario, but Texas Tech is not a great threat to bring down major in-state talent. That's 4 Power programs in the state as opposed to the current 5 so that's a gain there.
What if the other addition has to come from the East so that recruiting in Texas is less likely to begin with? West Virginia fits the bill. What's important about that move is that WVU's proximity to OH, PA, MD, VA, NJ, and to some extent NC is an aid for the rest of the conference. There's plenty of talent in that region of the country and most of it does not belong to the SEC. Right now, SEC schools are raiding TX because of the access A&M gave them. I think this is actually what hurts UT more than the presence of schools like Baylor and TCU. UT has to find a way to counteract that phenomenon and the only way to do it is to go to the SEC.
If this sort of move was made then UT, A&M, and OU are the major players in TX recruiting. The PAC, ACC, and B1G are all cut off. Schools like Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and LSU have the ability to pick a few players here and there. Houston and Texas Tech mop up the rest. Other SEC schools will get players as well...Alabama has had success recently getting a top notch player or two for example. That's not going to change because that bottle has been uncorked.
What Texas has to do to lock down talent is make sure no other major conference is in the region. This also lines up with network interests as well at this point.
Now obviously Houston's inclusion isn't really necessary for this plan to work. If the politicians get involved though then this is the sort of plan than mitigates any impact a school like Houston would have on UT recruiting.
1. Lock down Texas
2. Lock down every major brand in the region
3. Add WVU to open up recruiting in the Mid-Atlantic so that fewer SEC schools go hunting in TX in the first place.