(08-24-2017 09:15 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: Allison was 2001. Parts of Houston got 30-plus inches in about 2-2 1/2 days. The medical center probably didn't get quite that much but it was maybe 25 inches? We've had 2 pretty bad flooding events each of the last 2 springs but both were confined to smaller sections of town that are the normal flooding spots. The problem is that the infrastructure in town is pretty land-locked. They've tried expanding the bayous a bit but it's just cosmetic changes at best. Out in the suburbs, they have the room to create much more levees and water retention areas, so the suburbs can handle the rain much better than the urban sprawl. I think way back in 1979, the city of Alvin set an all-time U.S. record of 40 inches of rain in 1 day (?) and while it turned that city into a lake, that city is so rural that it could handle the rain. 40 inches in Houston would cause a LOT of deaths and record monetary damage.
What they did after Allison is they diverted some of the drainage away from the Medical Center. Unfortunately, the diverted water channels aren't able to handle large rain events. That's why Meyerland is flooding like crazy nowadays.
There used to be a bayou running through the medical center. They buried it and put it in pipes in the 50s. So the area is prone to flooding. Meyerland has always flooded. They were driving fire department air boats down Braeswood during Alicia in 82.
Houston is northeast of the storm. That is usually the wet side. And what's left is supposed to stall and then head towards Houston. But I heard from weather people that the 30 inches will be spread out over 4-5 days, so it won't be nearly as bad as if it was all in a day or 2.
I hope you are right. Im not familiar with the topography of the Houston area..but..you better hope it is not like here in NC. 30 inches of rain over a week would be a fcking disaster of biblical proportions. 15 in 3 days caused a disaster here.
5 inches of rain in Houston causes flooding. 10 in a day generates massive damage. The key is how much and how fast does it fall? And will the surge be slowing the drainage of the bayous into the bays when it is happening?
(08-24-2017 09:15 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: Allison was 2001. Parts of Houston got 30-plus inches in about 2-2 1/2 days. The medical center probably didn't get quite that much but it was maybe 25 inches? We've had 2 pretty bad flooding events each of the last 2 springs but both were confined to smaller sections of town that are the normal flooding spots. The problem is that the infrastructure in town is pretty land-locked. They've tried expanding the bayous a bit but it's just cosmetic changes at best. Out in the suburbs, they have the room to create much more levees and water retention areas, so the suburbs can handle the rain much better than the urban sprawl. I think way back in 1979, the city of Alvin set an all-time U.S. record of 40 inches of rain in 1 day (?) and while it turned that city into a lake, that city is so rural that it could handle the rain. 40 inches in Houston would cause a LOT of deaths and record monetary damage.
What they did after Allison is they diverted some of the drainage away from the Medical Center. Unfortunately, the diverted water channels aren't able to handle large rain events. That's why Meyerland is flooding like crazy nowadays.
There used to be a bayou running through the medical center. They buried it and put it in pipes in the 50s. So the area is prone to flooding. Meyerland has always flooded. They were driving fire department air boats down Braeswood during Alicia in 82.
Houston is northeast of the storm. That is usually the wet side. And what's left is supposed to stall and then head towards Houston. But I heard from weather people that the 30 inches will be spread out over 4-5 days, so it won't be nearly as bad as if it was all in a day or 2.
I hope you are right. Im not familiar with the topography of the Houston area..but..you better hope it is not like here in NC. 30 inches of rain over a week would be a fcking disaster of biblical proportions. 15 in 3 days caused a disaster here.
5 inches of rain in Houston causes flooding. 10 in a day generates massive damage. The key is how much and how fast does it fall? And will the surge be slowing the drainage of the bayous into the bays when it is happening?
That does not sound good. Id be U hauling ass out of town if I was not on very high ground.
So one or two random idiots and a couple guys making jokes are now "the left"?
Now what did I predict again?
Quote:-Create sweeping generalizations
You care to place a wager that at least one MSM outlet will run with Trump/Paris Accord/Climate change as a reason for this storm and it's devastation (if it verifies)?
Disavow what? Did you even read the article? It pretty much just talks about one report that basically concludes that the jury is still out...other than the given that tropical storms and hurricanes gain energy from warm water.
(08-24-2017 09:15 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: Allison was 2001. Parts of Houston got 30-plus inches in about 2-2 1/2 days. The medical center probably didn't get quite that much but it was maybe 25 inches? We've had 2 pretty bad flooding events each of the last 2 springs but both were confined to smaller sections of town that are the normal flooding spots. The problem is that the infrastructure in town is pretty land-locked. They've tried expanding the bayous a bit but it's just cosmetic changes at best. Out in the suburbs, they have the room to create much more levees and water retention areas, so the suburbs can handle the rain much better than the urban sprawl. I think way back in 1979, the city of Alvin set an all-time U.S. record of 40 inches of rain in 1 day (?) and while it turned that city into a lake, that city is so rural that it could handle the rain. 40 inches in Houston would cause a LOT of deaths and record monetary damage.
I was thinking it was Friendswood probably in 79 and not quite so much rain, but it was a phenomenal amount and all in 24 hours. (for those not familiar with the area, Friendswood and Alvin are only a few miles apart-and these days their boundaries meet-so same general area).
Hurricane Alicia was 1983. It was the summer before my sophomore year at Rice and all my stuff was in the basement of Baker College, which of course was flooded. We all showed up only a week or so later so some of it was actually salvageable!
I guess there wasn't that much rain (10" or so) but it came in a short time period? $1.7 B in damages and 21 killed. Sustained high winds, storm surge, tornadoes.
Quote: Scores of the Navy’s T-45 trainer jets were unable to evacuate Naval Air Station Kingsville and remain directly in the path of what is projected to be the worst hurricane to hit South Texas in decades.
On Thursday, NAS Kingsville, which houses 99 of the Navy’s 197 T-45 primary jet trainers, evacuated all airworthy aircraft ― if there was also a qualified pilot to fly.
But only 28 of Kingsville’s T-45s were determined to be airworthy, or to have a qualified pilot available, in order to evacuate the jets to Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, said spokesman Kevin Clarke.
The remaining 71 aircraft were put in hangars on base, Clarke said. There they will ride out Harvey’s 90 mph or more winds, any remnants from the anticipated 12-foot storm surge and potentially 35 inches of rain. The storm is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday as a category 3 hurricane.
Quote: Scores of the Navy’s T-45 trainer jets were unable to evacuate Naval Air Station Kingsville and remain directly in the path of what is projected to be the worst hurricane to hit South Texas in decades.
On Thursday, NAS Kingsville, which houses 99 of the Navy’s 197 T-45 primary jet trainers, evacuated all airworthy aircraft ― if there was also a qualified pilot to fly.
But only 28 of Kingsville’s T-45s were determined to be airworthy, or to have a qualified pilot available, in order to evacuate the jets to Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, said spokesman Kevin Clarke.
The remaining 71 aircraft were put in hangars on base, Clarke said. There they will ride out Harvey’s 90 mph or more winds, any remnants from the anticipated 12-foot storm surge and potentially 35 inches of rain. The storm is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday as a category 3 hurricane.
90 mph...12 storm surge...35 inches of rain. Oh schit. Anyone that does not evacuate is a fcking fool and deserves their peril. No first responder lives should be put to risk trying to help anyone this stupid.
Quote: Scores of the Navy’s T-45 trainer jets were unable to evacuate Naval Air Station Kingsville and remain directly in the path of what is projected to be the worst hurricane to hit South Texas in decades.
On Thursday, NAS Kingsville, which houses 99 of the Navy’s 197 T-45 primary jet trainers, evacuated all airworthy aircraft ― if there was also a qualified pilot to fly.
But only 28 of Kingsville’s T-45s were determined to be airworthy, or to have a qualified pilot available, in order to evacuate the jets to Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, said spokesman Kevin Clarke.
The remaining 71 aircraft were put in hangars on base, Clarke said. There they will ride out Harvey’s 90 mph or more winds, any remnants from the anticipated 12-foot storm surge and potentially 35 inches of rain. The storm is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday as a category 3 hurricane.
90 mph...12 storm surge...35 inches of rain. Oh schit. Anyone that does not evacuate is a fcking fool and deserves their peril. No first responder lives should be put to risk trying to help anyone this stupid.
I assume you're adding a caveat for those who simply cannot leave due to a lack of resources or the like, right?
Quote: Scores of the Navy’s T-45 trainer jets were unable to evacuate Naval Air Station Kingsville and remain directly in the path of what is projected to be the worst hurricane to hit South Texas in decades.
On Thursday, NAS Kingsville, which houses 99 of the Navy’s 197 T-45 primary jet trainers, evacuated all airworthy aircraft ― if there was also a qualified pilot to fly.
But only 28 of Kingsville’s T-45s were determined to be airworthy, or to have a qualified pilot available, in order to evacuate the jets to Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, said spokesman Kevin Clarke.
The remaining 71 aircraft were put in hangars on base, Clarke said. There they will ride out Harvey’s 90 mph or more winds, any remnants from the anticipated 12-foot storm surge and potentially 35 inches of rain. The storm is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday as a category 3 hurricane.
This sucker seems to be moving a bit more north than northwest during the last few hours. It may miss Corpus Christi altogether as a direct hit, and instead make landfall between Rockport and Port Lavaca. Kingsville might be fine since that's south of CC. I am still anticipating a slowdown but so far we're not seeing it.
Hopefully it doesn't move any more north than that because very few people in Houston are evacuating (and they shouldn't - no evacuations have been ordered and we're still 150 miles south of where it may make landfall). People along the coast need to get out of dodge but I'd be worried people closer to Houston might be leaving too late.
They are still saying it moves inland, stalls and then moves east/northeast after that for a 2nd landfall later in the week. But if the 1st landfall is more north than predicted, the 2nd landfall might end up being Louisiana.
(08-25-2017 03:00 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote: 90 mph...12 storm surge...35 inches of rain. Oh schit. Anyone that does not evacuate is a fcking fool and deserves their peril. No first responder lives should be put to risk trying to help anyone this stupid.
Sadly there's a better than not chance there will be.
Governor Abbott tells Houstonians to evacuate. Houston officials say not so fast.....
Personally I think it's too late to leave now. First off, the roads are already wet and won't dry out for perhaps a week. Secondly, hotels will soon be filled in San Antonio/Austin, and perhaps Dallas/Fort Worth in the near future. The worst thing to do in a significant rain event like this is be on the roads. Houses may flood but you can get to higher ground in most cases and survive. Surviving in a car is a lot trickier.
I just checked and the roads out of Houston are fine. Wet, but not too much traffic as compared to normal. I'd say if you are on high ground stay put otherwise I'd get on out.
I've seen lots of tracks that have Harvey hanging around Houston for several days. Could be rough one to ride out if you're in a low lying area.
Governor Abbott tells Houstonians to evacuate. Houston officials say not so fast.....
Personally I think it's too late to leave now. First off, the roads are already wet and won't dry out for perhaps a week. Secondly, hotels will soon be filled in San Antonio/Austin, and perhaps Dallas/Fort Worth in the near future. The worst thing to do in a significant rain event like this is be on the roads. Houses may flood but you can get to higher ground in most cases and survive. Surviving in a car is a lot trickier.
Any storm event in Houston will be flooding and will take significant rainfall to get there. The real fear is the specter of heavy rains for days that fills the bayou system and leads to wide spread flooding. That will take several days. People leaving Houston today or Saturday will likely be fine. If issues develop here---it's going to start showing up Sunday (maybe late Sat if it rains enough).
To me, I'd stay put. The truth is---they can't predict exactly where the flooding will happen. Those fleeing Houston may travel into the flooding rather than away from the flooding. Not to mention that almost 100 people died in traffic fleeing the city in the last exodus. Less than that would have died had they stayed.
(This post was last modified: 08-25-2017 07:17 PM by Attackcoog.)
So one or two random idiots and a couple guys making jokes are now "the left"?
Now what did I predict again?
Quote:-Create sweeping generalizations
You care to place a wager that at least one MSM outlet will run with Trump/Paris Accord/Climate change as a reason for this storm and it's devastation (if it verifies)?
Over/under on how quickly the Bush-Katrina/ Trump-Harvery comparisons begin?
How no matter what he says, does, tweets etc., it will be a complete disaster of a response, he's not prepared to cope with a situation like this, his response has been "unstable", and finally the storm has disproportionately affected women and minorities proving once again he's a sexist and a racist.
Oh, and best of luck to all or any of you that may be in the storms path. We get our fair share here on the East Coast-ish and I've been through a bunch right on the Eastern shore.
Personal favorite was in about '86 in Ocean City Md., having our Hurricane party in our ground floor apartment when the Fire Dept showed up with Sharpies so we could all put our SS #'s and next of kin, and phone # on our forearm so they could ID the bodies...
Quote: Scores of the Navy’s T-45 trainer jets were unable to evacuate Naval Air Station Kingsville and remain directly in the path of what is projected to be the worst hurricane to hit South Texas in decades.
On Thursday, NAS Kingsville, which houses 99 of the Navy’s 197 T-45 primary jet trainers, evacuated all airworthy aircraft ― if there was also a qualified pilot to fly.
But only 28 of Kingsville’s T-45s were determined to be airworthy, or to have a qualified pilot available, in order to evacuate the jets to Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, said spokesman Kevin Clarke.
The remaining 71 aircraft were put in hangars on base, Clarke said. There they will ride out Harvey’s 90 mph or more winds, any remnants from the anticipated 12-foot storm surge and potentially 35 inches of rain. The storm is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday as a category 3 hurricane.
90 mph...12 storm surge...35 inches of rain. Oh schit. Anyone that does not evacuate is a fcking fool and deserves their peril. No first responder lives should be put to risk trying to help anyone this stupid.
I assume you're adding a caveat for those who simply cannot leave due to a lack of resources or the like, right?
Unfortunately no. Once it starts EMS is not going to come to the aide of anyone until it is over. I reject your premise anyway. I expect anyone that wants to leave will be leaving and the authorities will help with that. Ive been through more than a dozen of these and every time it is always the brave and foolish that get caught..not the folks you are addressing.
(08-25-2017 05:49 PM)JMUDunk Wrote: Oh, and best of luck to all or any of you that may be in the storms path. We get our fair share here on the East Coast-ish and I've been through a bunch right on the Eastern shore.
Personal favorite was in about '86 in Ocean City Md., having our Hurricane party in our ground floor apartment when the Fire Dept showed up with Sharpies so we could all put our SS #'s and next of kin, and phone # on our forearm so they could ID the bodies...
Needless to say it never quite got to that point.
Hurricane Gloria? That was one we rode in Norfolk during my undergrad years.
