(08-24-2017 06:13 PM)Wolfman Wrote: Why would a school leave an existing FBS conference, that some have been a part of for 50+ years, to join a conference that isn't FBS and still would not qualify unless some of the existing schools upgrade?
It seems more likely that the MAC would add a couple of the MVC schools.
No incentive for the MAC to do that unless if it was a pre-meditated split. Even the. You would likely see the MAC add two to each "side" (I'll use Missouri State, Northern Iowa, James Madison, and Delaware in this example) for football only, then six schools depart the MAC for the MVC (or CAA) to birth the new FBS conference.
You then have a conference with 16 teams, 8 of which are FBS, and 6 of which just joined. Presuming 2 of the 8 other schools want to upgrade to FBS, you still have to find homes for at least 4, if not all 6 of them. I doubt the MVC or CAA wants to look like this:
West - Drake, Bradley, Loyola-IL, Indiana State, Evansville, Valparaiso
East - Elon, Charleston, William & Mary, UNCW, Drexel, Hofstra
(Northeastern to America East to replace FBS-bound Stony Brook)
Most likely the MVC if it was "orphaned" would add 4 from the OVC (SIUE, EIU, Murray State, SEMO) who adds 4 from the Big South, who adds the non-FBS schools in the CAA.
If the CAA were "orphaned" then it adds 4 from the Big South, but I see a harder time with the Big South adding from the OVC, which would free up space for the non-FBS MVC schools.