In this alternate history scenario, the NCAA is much stricter when it comes to the "Great Reclassification" of 1982. Not only are the Ivy League, SoCon, and Southland relegated to I-AA, but the MAC, MVC, and PCAA as well. Hybrid I-A/I-AA conferences are banned. The only school to successfully appeal its reclassification is Cincinnati (unlike Miami-OH, SW Louisiana, and WMU). Furthermore, no schools may join I-A without an invite from a I-A conference. As in our timeline, although Yale and McNeese State meet the standards for I-A, they opt to drop to I-AA to be with their conference mates. Survivors from the MAC, MVC, and PCAA band together in a football-only I-A league, the Trans-American Football Conference (TAFC).
I-A 1982
ACC
Full: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Non-FB: Georgia Tech
Big 8: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
I-A Ind: Army, Boston College, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Memphis, Miami-FL, Navy, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Syracuse, Temple, Tulane, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SWC: Arkansas, Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
TAFC (FB only): Central Michigan, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Pacific, Toledo, Tulsa, UNLV, Utah State, Wichita State
WAC: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming
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CMU and Toledo are very quickly forced to bail after their attendance tanks in the TAFC, joining their MAC brethren in I-AA. Wichita State drops to I-AA a few years later. Arkansas State is the first demoted school to return to I-A, joining the TAFC in 1990. Boise State makes an earlier entrance into I-A in this timeline, replacing Fresno State in the TAFC upon their defection to the WAC in 1992. Big East football forms in a similar manner as our timeline, with two notable differences: the Big East proactively offers full membership to football heavyweights Florida State and Penn State, who accept. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is unable to score the TV deal with NBC it did in our timeline and decides to shack up with the Big Ten. Arkansas and South Carolina join the SEC as in reality, resulting in the first I-A conference with divisions.
I-A 1993 (* = FB-only member)
ACC: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Big 8: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Big East
Full: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers*, Syracuse, Temple*, Virginia Tech*, West Virginia*
Non-FB: Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova
Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
I-A Ind: Army, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Louisville, Memphis, Navy, Southern Miss, Tulane
Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
SWC: Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
TAFC (FB only): Arkansas State, Boise State, New Mexico State, Pacific, Tulsa, UNLV, Utah State
WAC: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming
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Big changes follow! In 1996, the WAC scoops up Boise State and UNLV to go to 12. The Big 12 forms that year as in our timeline, with one exception: Nebraska defects to the Big Ten, and Houston is rescued from the SWC to replace them. The much diminished SWC, containing just Rice, SMU, and TCU, decides the show must go on and invites 5 TAFC schools as full members. The last remaining TAFC school, Pacific, drops to I-AA, leading to the demise of the FB-only conference.
Rutgers and WVU are granted full membership in the Big East in 1995. Temple (with PSU's support) and Virginia Tech join in full in 2000. The Metro Conference, never having fragmented in this timeline, begins sponsoring football in 1996. The Metro lineup that year consists of full members Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, and UAB; FB-only members UCF and ECU; and non-FB member USF. The Metro would quickly expand: Marshall joins in full in 1997; Army and Navy join as FB-onlies in 1998; and in 2001, UCF and ECU become full members and USF football joins up.
I-A 2001 (* = FB-only member)
ACC: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Big 12
North: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State
South: Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Big East
Full: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Non-FB: Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova
Big Ten
East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Metro
East: Army*, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Navy*, South Florida
West: Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
SWC: Arkansas State, New Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulsa, Utah State
WAC
Mountain: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Pacific: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, UNLV, UTEP
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Division I-A is remarkably stable for the next decade, making the moves that take place starting in 2011 all the more shocking. The Pac-10 expands first to the Pac-12 that year by recruiting Colorado State and Utah from the WAC. The next year, the conference changes its name again when Houston, Texas, A&M, and Tech become the eastern pod of the Pac-16. Like sharks circling a sinking ship, the Big Ten and SEC each take a bite of the flailing Big 12 as well. The SEC picks up OU and OSU, shifting the Alabama schools to the Eastern Division while moving Vandy to the Western. The Big Ten scores with Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri, at which point they reluctantly invite an overjoyed Iowa State to round out their numbers. Thus the Big 16 is born. With 10 schools in the Big 12 destined for new homes in power conferences, the conference is disbanded after the 2012-13 academic year. This is to the sorrow of Baylor and KSU, who bring the WAC back to 12.
One condition of Baylor and KSU's joining the WAC is to add more schools in the region. The SWC is finally put out of its misery, as Rice, SMU, TCU, and Tulsa are invited to the WAC in 2013, and Arkansas State and North Texas join the Metro (shifting Cincinnati to the East). NMSU and USU spend a brief spell as I-A independents before signing up as FB-only members of the Metro in 2014.
The SEC, despite having gorged on the Big 12, is not content to stand at 14. In 2013, they expand their footprint into the coveted states of Virginia and North Carolina by snagging VT from the Big East and NCSU from the ACC. This precipitates a relatively amiable split between the football and basketball schools of the Big East, which was a long time coming. The ACC, seeking to avoid irrelevance, extends an invite to the 9 remaining FB members of the Big East, who graciously accept. The 6 non-FB members retain the Big East name and restock with Butler, DePaul, Marquette, and Xavier.
I-A 2014 (* = FB-only member)
ACC
East: Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
North: Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL
West: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Big 16
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State
North: Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
West: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Metro
East: Army*, Central Florida, Navy*, South Florida
North: Cincinnati, East Carolina, Louisville, Marshall
South: Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: Arkansas State, New Mexico State*, North Texas, Utah State*
Pac-16
East: Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
WAC
East: Kansas State, New Mexico, Tulsa, UTEP
North: Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Wyoming
South: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU
West: Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, UNLV
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And so by the present day, we arrive at my favorite of alignments, with all conferences sporting 16 teams in 4 pods. The pods alternate between two 8-team divisions. Rather than the 130 FBS schools in 2019 of our timeline, there are only 96 schools in I-A by 2019 in this timeline, the legacy of the culling in 1982.
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Bonus material
Big East basketball protected opponents (2000-2012)
Conference schedule is 18 games, with 2 games vs. each of 3 protected opponents and 1 game vs. each of the remaining 12 opponents.
Code:
BOSTON COLLEGE Connecticut Miami-FL Providence
CONNECTICUT Boston College Providence Syracuse
FLORIDA STATE Providence West Virginia Miami-FL
GEORGETOWN Villanova Syracuse St. John's
MIAMI-FL Virginia Tech Boston College Florida State
PENN STATE Syracuse Temple Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH West Virginia Virginia Tech Penn State
PROVIDENCE Florida State Connecticut Boston College
RUTGERS Temple St. John's Seton Hall
SETON HALL St. John's Villanova Rutgers
ST. JOHN'S Seton Hall Rutgers Georgetown
SYRACUSE Penn State Georgetown Connecticut
TEMPLE Rutgers Penn State Villanova
VILLANOVA Georgetown Seton Hall Temple
VIRGINIA TECH Miami-FL Pittsburgh West Virginia
WEST VIRGINIA Pittsburgh Florida State Virginia Tech
Annual interconference I-A matchups (as of 2019)
Air Force/Army
Air Force/Navy
BYU/Utah
Clemson/South Carolina
Colorado/Colorado State
Florida/Florida State
Georgia/Georgia Tech
Houston/Rice
Kansas/Kansas State
Kentucky/Louisville
Navy/Notre Dame
NC State/North Carolina
New Mexico/New Mexico State
New Mexico State/UTEP
Notre Dame/USC
Oklahoma/Texas
Virginia/Virginia Tech
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Questions, feedback, and constructive criticism are welcome and encouraged!