(04-17-2017 11:21 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 08:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 06:18 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  This all depends on how you look at it. If you are favored in a game, albeit however small, then you are projected to win that game. I get the other arguments also, but if you're favored, then you are favored, period. If you are only a slight favorite, then yes, chances are you will lose some of those games and the probability is that you will be 9-3, 10-2, etc. instead of 12-0. But on the other hand, if you win all the games you are favored in, then you are projected to go 12-0 or 11-1. It's all on how you look at it.

It really isn't.

Yes it is. You can't comprehend the other arguments. If your a slight favorite then yes odds are that you will lose some statistically. On the other hand if you are favored then you are expected to win. If you win all that you are favored/expected to win then yes you could win them all. At least you'd be projected to by being the favorite. There are 2 ways to look at it. Anyone with half a brain can see that.

There aren't "other arguments" to simple math. I bring you back to my 50.1% favored in every game example. Do you honestly think that team would be expected to go 12-0? If so, you're wrong. If not, your logic is inconsistent.

(04-17-2017 11:44 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 11:21 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 08:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 06:18 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  This all depends on how you look at it. If you are favored in a game, albeit however small, then you are projected to win that game. I get the other arguments also, but if you're favored, then you are favored, period. If you are only a slight favorite, then yes, chances are you will lose some of those games and the probability is that you will be 9-3, 10-2, etc. instead of 12-0. But on the other hand, if you win all the games you are favored in, then you are projected to go 12-0 or 11-1. It's all on how you look at it.

It really isn't.

Yes it is. You can't comprehend the other arguments. If your a slight favorite then yes odds are that you will lose some statistically. On the other hand if you are favored then you are expected to win. If you win all that you are favored/expected to win then yes you could win them all. At least you'd be projected to by being the favorite. There are 2 ways to look at it. Anyone with half a brain can see that.

There aren't "other arguments" to simple math. I bring you back to my 50.1% favored in every game example. Do you honestly think that team would be expected to go 12-0? If so, you're wrong. If not, your logic is inconsistent.

Isn't it actually on a continum? Since each game stands alone its like flipping a coin. Chances are you will end up 50/50 over an extended amount of attempts. But in any given 10 attempts you could have a 10 run of heads (winning) or tails (losing) the most likely occurance be between that, with the odds steadily going up in occurances (number of times any given run of 10 would show) the closer you get to 5 heads and 5 tails. I might be completely wrong my statistic knowledge is meh. .

(04-17-2017 11:44 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 11:21 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 08:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 06:18 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  This all depends on how you look at it. If you are favored in a game, albeit however small, then you are projected to win that game. I get the other arguments also, but if you're favored, then you are favored, period. If you are only a slight favorite, then yes, chances are you will lose some of those games and the probability is that you will be 9-3, 10-2, etc. instead of 12-0. But on the other hand, if you win all the games you are favored in, then you are projected to go 12-0 or 11-1. It's all on how you look at it.

It really isn't.

Yes it is. You can't comprehend the other arguments. If your a slight favorite then yes odds are that you will lose some statistically. On the other hand if you are favored then you are expected to win. If you win all that you are favored/expected to win then yes you could win them all. At least you'd be projected to by being the favorite. There are 2 ways to look at it. Anyone with half a brain can see that.

There aren't "other arguments" to simple math. I bring you back to my 50.1% favored in every game example. Do you honestly think that team would be expected to go 12-0? If so, you're wrong. If not, your logic is inconsistent.

Yes, there are other arguments. First of all, USF isn't favored by 50.1 in any game. The lowest is 54.9 at UCF. Everything else is over 65%.

But besides that, what you are failing to see is that if you are favored in any game, then you are projected to win that game.

Question: Yes or no. If you are favored in a game, are you favored (Answer: Yes)

Question: Yes or no. If you are favored in a game, are you projected to win that game (Answer: Yes).

Now, I get your point. Even if you are favored in games, statistically speaking, you will not win them all by averages. But that doesn't change the fact: If you are favored to win a game, then you are favored/projected to win that game.

As of right now, USF would be favored in all 12 games this year. Any number of things could happen to change that. Flowers could get injured, Strong could be a bust, defense could suck worse than last year, or someone could be better than expected making USF and underdog. But as or right now, this very second, USF would be favored/projected, however you want to term it in all of their games. That is what you are not understanding and is the "other argument".

Could USF lose some games, possibly so, no one denied that.

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Yes, there are other arguments. First of all, USF isn't favored by 50.1 in any game. The lowest is 54.9 at UCF. Everything else is over 65%.

Do you honestly not see how your logic/gorrilla math breaks down under the slightest bit of rigor?

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Could USF lose some games, possibly so, no one denied that.

Yes, very possibly so. 97.5% so in fact.

(04-17-2017 10:42 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 09:51 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 08:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 06:18 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  This all depends on how you look at it. If you are favored in a game, albeit however small, then you are projected to win that game. I get the other arguments also, but if you're favored, then you are favored, period. If you are only a slight favorite, then yes, chances are you will lose some of those games and the probability is that you will be 9-3, 10-2, etc. instead of 12-0. But on the other hand, if you win all the games you are favored in, then you are projected to go 12-0 or 11-1. It's all on how you look at it.

It really isn't.

Technically, you are correct. If you have a lot of games where you are a slight favorite, the odds are you won't win all the games where you are slight favorites, so you win the argument in stats class.

Most people who have any sense can comprehend that.

HOWEVER, he has a point. Unless you just want to be a technical *******.

I went with the odds for each game, b/c that's the only way I could get a conference record, and thus make it somewhat more palatable to discuss, since the projected records were total, not conference.

The point of message boards is to generate discussion, not necessarily to measure sizes of body parts.

Oh relax Triple. In your hurry to tout Memphis you misinterpreted the information. Kind of like conference realignment.

I didn't misinterpret realignment. It just makes you feel better to think that.

(04-17-2017 11:00 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 02:06 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Who wins more conference games....Memphis football or Memphis basketball?

Honestly, I am going Memphis football. I would guess 6-7 wins for football and 4-5 for basketball.

How much would you like to bet on either one, lol?

(04-18-2017 02:27 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Could USF lose some games, possibly so, no one denied that.

Yes, very possibly so. 97.5% so in fact.

I smell bell curve, so I suspect I was correct. So USF has a 2.5% chance of going 0-12, correct?

(04-18-2017 02:27 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Yes, there are other arguments. First of all, USF isn't favored by 50.1 in any game. The lowest is 54.9 at UCF. Everything else is over 65%.

Do you honestly not see how your logic/gorrilla math breaks down under the slightest bit of rigor?

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Could USF lose some games, possibly so, no one denied that.

Yes, very possibly so. 97.5% so in fact.

You failed to answer my questions.

Question: If you are favored in a game, are you favored to win that game. Yes or No.

(Side note: USF is currently favored in all 12 games)

Question: If you are favored in a game, are you projected to win that game. Yes or No.

(04-18-2017 04:02 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 02:27 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Yes, there are other arguments. First of all, USF isn't favored by 50.1 in any game. The lowest is 54.9 at UCF. Everything else is over 65%.

Do you honestly not see how your logic/gorrilla math breaks down under the slightest bit of rigor?

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Could USF lose some games, possibly so, no one denied that.

Yes, very possibly so. 97.5% so in fact.

You failed to answer my questions.

Question: If you are favored in a game, are you favored to win that game. Yes or No.

(Side note: USF is currently favored in all 12 games)

Question: If you are favored in a game, are you projected to win that game. Yes or No.

Question: how frequently do odds change?

(04-18-2017 04:02 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 02:27 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Yes, there are other arguments. First of all, USF isn't favored by 50.1 in any game. The lowest is 54.9 at UCF. Everything else is over 65%.

Do you honestly not see how your logic/gorrilla math breaks down under the slightest bit of rigor?

(04-18-2017 01:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Could USF lose some games, possibly so, no one denied that.

Yes, very possibly so. 97.5% so in fact.

You failed to answer my questions.

Question: If you are favored in a game, are you favored to win that game. Yes or No.

(Side note: USF is currently favored in all 12 games)

Question: If you are favored in a game, are you projected to win that game. Yes or No.

If you want to say USF is favored in all their regular season games next year thats fine, just don't say they are favored to go undefeated.

Looking at the schedule and trying to be as realistic as I can, I think it's reasonable to say Tulsa will go 8-4 next season. But with the uncertainty at Qb I could see our record being +/- 3 games in either direction.

(04-18-2017 06:41 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  Looking at the schedule and trying to be as realistic as I can, I think it's reasonable to say Tulsa will go 8-4 next season. But with the uncertainty at Qb I could see our record being +/- 3 games in either direction.

Reasonable projection.

P.S. I edited the title and OP so maybe people can get past the details and actually discuss the projections, standings, etc.

(04-15-2017 04:25 PM)Cubanbull Wrote:  That would set up a heck up an AAC championship game with two ranked teams and the NY6 bowl bid

Would be one helluva game. If played in Memphis, 59,000 Liberty Bowl sellout.

(04-17-2017 10:42 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 09:51 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 08:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(04-17-2017 06:18 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  This all depends on how you look at it. If you are favored in a game, albeit however small, then you are projected to win that game. I get the other arguments also, but if you're favored, then you are favored, period. If you are only a slight favorite, then yes, chances are you will lose some of those games and the probability is that you will be 9-3, 10-2, etc. instead of 12-0. But on the other hand, if you win all the games you are favored in, then you are projected to go 12-0 or 11-1. It's all on how you look at it.

It really isn't.

Technically, you are correct. If you have a lot of games where you are a slight favorite, the odds are you won't win all the games where you are slight favorites, so you win the argument in stats class.

Most people who have any sense can comprehend that.

HOWEVER, he has a point. Unless you just want to be a technical *******.

I went with the odds for each game, b/c that's the only way I could get a conference record, and thus make it somewhat more palatable to discuss, since the projected records were total, not conference.

The point of message boards is to generate discussion, not necessarily to measure sizes of body parts.

Oh relax Triple. In your hurry to tout Memphis you misinterpreted the information. Kind of like conference realignment.

D@mn dude, still mad about those last two blow out Ass kickings at the hands of the Tigers? Seems there were many, many UC fans on here (you being one of the main characters) pumping their chest out as saying UC was the ONLY school to be a lock for the BIGXII and laughing at others who thought their school would be admitted. So why don't you enlighten us on how that turned out for you and your school.....Apologies to those UC fans (much respect to you and your school)) who aren't the smart @ss that this numb nutz is.

Just another preseason projection. Exciting to some if their team is picked to do well, skeptical to some simply because it's a porjection/prediction, seen as a curse by some others. But it's still preseason & doesn't consider inevitable injuries that can ruin the potential for success, a key fumble or interception - or even a key early season win (like Memphis beats UCLA) that could provide a great boost but also make Memphis, for example, a bigger target over the rest of the season - or an unexpected loss that might be a downer the rest of the season. BUT, it still provides foder for discussion - and isn't that the point?

(04-15-2017 06:03 PM)PonyUpTempo Wrote:  SMU will go 7-5 in the regular season. I'll let you figure out how we get there.

Even if that prediction is right (5-7), with a lttle luck SMU could still go bowling as San jose St and others did in 2015. SMU needs those extra bowlgame practice sessions. And with the perception of AAC football, it might put them ahead of the pack. Hope so.