(04-12-2017 01:29 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: (04-12-2017 01:11 PM)JRsec Wrote: (04-12-2017 01:01 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: Well, that's an interesting turn of events.
I think the NC lawmakers are pissed that the ACC pulled events from the state and are looking to discourage it from ever happening again. I think that is the goal rather than looking for an exit for UNC and NC State.
Lance, you think this has a legitimate chance of passing?
You can fight a legitimate battle over a particular issue, and still use it as a means of accomplishing bigger, yet ancillary, objectives.
You do realize that right now the two state schools of North Carolina will lose out on around $200 million in total revenue by remaining in the ACC over the next decade than they would if they were either in the Big 10 or SEC (where the figure would actually be larger). That chunk of change can go a long way in alleviating some appropriations issues. I'm sure they don't like the boycott, but underlying that issue is the constraint upon the trade of the state as a direct result of ACC membership.
True, but I tend to view politicians as mostly incompetent. I'm not sure I give them enough credit to be thinking that far ahead.
I think if they were primarily interested in moving UNC and NC State out that they would take a more direct approach. This plan leaves the distinct possibility that the ACC will back down and return all their events to the state. If they do that then there's no recourse for challenging the GOR...at least as far as this bill would allow.
Then again, if they think there's no chance the ACC will back down then they've probably got the conference cornered. I doubt it would work that way though. The ACC would be a dead man walking if they allow UNC and NC State to back out. It wouldn't be long before most of the others would be gone too. Good for the schools, but the ACC will basically cease to exist. I highly doubt the league feels that strongly about whatever "principles" they think they're upholding. Same reason the NBA moved the All-Star game this year...they can make just as much money if they host it somewhere else, but they're not about to force the Hornets to leave the state because that would hit them in the pocketbook. It all makes for interesting theater though.
Again, nothing you are saying is in error. I'm merely pointing out that there is a way to piggy back on this to find a loophole (and significant political cover for the school) to find a way to pull out and leave. Everyone knows UNC is the root of the ACC as a conference. They have had everyone's expectations on their back with regards to the health of the ACC. Yet, by staying they are vacating 100's of millions of dollars in rights they could earn elsewhere. The state's citizens are conservative enough to get behind this issue, and the issue provides the kind of alibi that the root of a conference would need to open up the window for opportunities to move. This my friends is precisely what Boren did by demanding expansion, only here it gets tied to the state directly instead of to an issue internal to the conference.
As far as politicians being smart enough to provide that cover, I would say the issue is opportunistic. It's perfect for making an issue over the GOR.
Would it be a disaster or blessing for ESPN? I say it could well be a blessing. It stops the need to develop another network. ESPN can still shelter the properties they want from the ACC in an expanded SEC. And it gives them a chance to unload some properties that aren't as promising to FOX and the Big 10. Virginia, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, and Notre Dame are all easily accommodated.
Let's say for the sake of argument that Texas has threatened to head to the Big 10 if they don't keep their conference. Arguably the Big 12 is in better financial shape than the ACC. Miami, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech would make the Big 12 viable from a standpoint of product and markets. FOX splits that overhead 50/50. ESPN loses nothing and splits the overhead for almost half of the ACC. Maybe if Texas won't move to the ACC then the ACC moves to Texas.
North Carolina, one of the Virginia's, Clemson and Florida State come to the SEC. Notre Dame joins the Big 12 as a partial. They still have access to Florida and Georgia through Tech and Miami. They still have Pitt for New England. They might even get Syracuse.
Is Texas happy? Hell yeah they still have their own conference. Is Oklahoma happy? Yes, they have better schools to play. Is the SEC happy? Absolutely! We get two huge new markets, complete our Southern Footprint, don't have to fool with Texas which makes A&M happy, and we pick up that 2nd Florida school we need and cement the access to the South at North Carolina by taking Clemson. All of this becomes suddenly possible with the breaking of the GOR's.
West Virginia is even happy. They get their old Big East rivals back.
The Big 10 could pick up a pair if they wanted them. Maybe they get Virginia and we get Virginia Tech. Or maybe they get Virginia and Notre Dame, Syracuse and Duke.
There's all kinds of possibilities if somebody like UNC breaks that GOR. But if ESPN holds onto the properties they want and shelters them in the SEC they don't have to have another network. They don't have to pay for more schools. They get their conference with the content and markets they want.
So are there powerful people who might be able to piggyback on this? Um....yeah!