(03-27-2017 12:40 PM)Tiger87 Wrote: (03-23-2017 09:33 PM)salukiblue Wrote: (03-23-2017 04:33 PM)Tiger87 Wrote: The mean is fine to use. Not enough data to get deeper. The problem is that the 3-star pool is a big population, and there is a large standard deviation within, when you start looking at how the pan out in college. That's where you hope our evaluation is better than the other guys, and we're getting the right 3's.
Just like as I nailed 1st year numbers for Damien Wilson, Shaq, Clergeot, Chad, Dom Woodson, and a couple others we can sit back and time will tell.
Hey, I'm agreeing that the mean is - a good indicator in year 1 at least. There is a high margin of error, due to the standard deviation. But it's really the best we can do sitting here with limited data.
But let's be truthful. I'm certainly not wasting time to look it up. You pat yourself on the back for getting close with 5 players. Are those the only ones you've ever made predictions on, or are you cherry picking?
For the 1000th time, I'm not cherry picking.
I'm simply stating that one can BLINDLY pick any c/o 2017 kid, find his recruiting ranking, look back at the previous rankings at that spot for the past four or five years in that range (applicable to that position) and have a damn good indicator of how that player will perform pts/reb/asst wise as a frosh.
For example, Jamal Johnson is ranked 158 this year.
Lets go back the past 4 years and look at guys ranked 153-163 who are swingmen.
Vincent Edwards (Purdue) 8.8 ppg 4.8 rpg
Xavier Sneed (KSU) 8.7 ppg 3.1 rpg
Yoeli Childs (BYU) 8.4 ppg 8.1 rpg
Payton Banks (PSU) 7.2 ppg 2.8 rpg
Trey Lowe (Temple) 4.8 ppg 1.5 rpg
Nick Blair (Idaho) 3.6 ppg 2.4 rpg
Jeff Garrett (signed w/ Bama, went JUCO then to NKU) 3.4 ppg 4.4 rpg
Christian Matthews (Ga. Tech) 3.4 ppg 0.3 rpg
Kevin Marfo (GW) 2.9 ppg 2.1 rpg
Chance Murray (ASU) 2.4 ppg 0.6 apg
Tevario Miller (A&M) 2.4 ppg 3.1 rpg
Marcanvis Hymon (Ole Miss) 1.2 ppg 1.2 rpg
Brodricks Jones (UTEP) 1.2 ppg 1.4 rpg
Roger Moute a Bidias (Cal) 0.2 ppg 0.9 rpg
Reginald Todd (not playing basketball)
Ronnie Harrell (Creighton) Redshirted
You have your high folks and low folks. The mid range is somewhere between 2.4 and 4.8 ppg. Basically Blair, Garrett, or Matthews.
We can hope that you get a Vincent Edwards, or you can fret that it will be Bidias, or you can likely expect Garrett.