It's still a week away but since the 2016-17 season basketball thread is so long, I thought I'd start a new thread to talk about the men's conference tournament. Plus with the men winning 20 games (first time since 2003-04) and clinching a winning conference record (also first time since going 12-6 in both 03-04 and 04-05 in the WAC), why not give them an extra thread.

The conference tournament is March 8-11 in Birmingham. On March 8, the 5th through 12th place teams play in the first round. The quarterfinals are on March 9, the semifinals on March 10 and the finals on March 11. UAB will probably play in the evening session on Wednesday so their finish will likely determine whether 5-12 and 8-9 is the evening session, or 6-11 and 7-10 is the evening session.

Here are the current CUSA standings.

(1) Middle Tennessee State 15-1 (has clinched regular season title but they host FIU and FAU next week)
(2) Louisiana Tech 13-4 (has clinched second place despite the loss at Rice; hosts USM to end the regular season on Saturday. They could finish in a tie for 2nd but will be the #2 seed regardless.)
(T3) Old Dominion and UTEP 11-5 (the two teams play at UTEP on Thursday and the winner will clinch a first-round bye; UTEP hosts Charlotte Saturday and ODU is at UTSA. The loser of the Thursday game will also clinch a bye if they win Saturday or if Rice loses either game next week)
(5) Rice 10-6 (at Marshall/WKU; will probably need at least 1 win to finish 5th but can not finish worse than 7th)
(6) Marshall 9-7 (Rice/UNT; can finish anywhere from 5th to 9th)
(7) UAB 8-8 (FAU/FIU)
(T8) Western Kentucky/UTSA 7-9 (WKU hosts UNT/Rice; UTSA hosts Charlotte/ODU)
(T10) Charlotte/FAU 6-10 (Charlotte is at UTSA/UTEP; FAU is at UAB/MT)
(12) USM 6-11 (at Louisiana Tech Saturday)
(T13) UNT and FIU 2-14 (both teams are eliminated from the tournament

If Charlotte, FAU and USM end in a 3-way tie at 6-12, FAU will be the 10 seed, Charlotte the 11 seed and USM the 12 seed based on their head-to-head finishes.

(02-26-2017 08:06 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  (T3) Old Dominion and UTEP 11-5 (the two teams play at UTEP on Thursday and the winner will clinch a first-round bye; UTEP hosts Charlotte Saturday and ODU is at UTSA. The loser of the Thursday game will also clinch a bye if they win Saturday or if Rice loses either game next week)
(5) Rice 10-6 (at Marshall/WKU; will probably need at least 1 win to finish 5th but can not finish worse than 7th)

If Rice wins both games next week, and the Thursday ODU/UTEP loser also loses on Saturday, wouldn't we finish 4th (with the first-round bye), with 12-6 vs 11-7 records?

EDIT: Ahhh, I see just now that you'd said exactly that on the "Rice MBB chances as a top 4 seed" thread:

(02-26-2017 12:34 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  As stated on the La Tech game thread, to finish top 4, we'll need to sweep the road games next week and then have the ODU-UTEP loser also lose its other game. That seems rather unlikely for UTEP. Perhaps ODU could lose 2 in Texas but it seems more likely we'll finish 5-7 and be the designated home team vs. Charlotte, FAU or USM (who all could finish 6-12 and tied for the 10th through 12th place spots).

Okay Thursday's wild night is over (3 buzzer beaters basically and road teams winning in each case with Rice, ODU and Charlotte). So here are the updated conference standings....

(1) Middle Tennessee State 16-1
(2) Louisiana Tech 13-4 (has clinched second place despite the loss at Rice; hosts USM to end the regular season on Saturday. They could finish in a tie for 2nd but will be the #2 seed regardless.)
(3) Old Dominion 12-5 (first round bye; plays at UTSA Saturday but is guaranteed of being 3 seed win or lose)
(T4) UTEP and Rice 11-6 (UTEP has the tie-breaker in the head-to-head with Rice and the Owls would also be the odd team out if it's a 3-way tie for 3rd at 12-6. A UTEP win vs. Charlotte or a Rice loss at WKU would clinch 4th for UTEP. Rice needs a win and UTEP loss to finish 4th; otherwise they finish 5th).
(T6) Marshall and UAB 9-8 (both teams have winnable games at home Saturday. I think UAB will be the 6 seed and Marshall the 7 seed if both teams win??)
(8) Western Kentucky 8-9 (WKU hosts Rice)
(T9) UTSA/Charlotte 7-10 (UTSA hosts ODU; Charlotte is at UTEP; Charlotte has the tie-breaker if the two teams end up tied in standings).
(T11) USM/FAU 6-11 (FAU is at MT; USM is at La Tech; FAU has the tie-breaker if the two teams tie)
(T13) UNT and FIU 2-15 (both teams are eliminated from the tournament

I changed title of thread since I'll use it to discuss possible postseason games beyond CUSA tournament. I still think NIT is unlikely (our RPI is just too low and many of those bids go to regular-season conference teams who don't make the NCAA's). FYI, last year CUSA had 4 post-season teams - MTSU in NCAA, UAB in NIT, La Tech and ODU in Vegas 16/8. They didn't have any teams in CIT or CBI. The CIT is a tournament that CUSA prefers not to be included in I believe since it aligns itself with mid-major teams and CUSA doesn't consider itself to be mid-major. The CBI is still probably in play and one thing in Rice's favor is that there are several local teams they could play in the opening round of a tournament like that (several Southland or Sunbelt teams, or possibly even TCU, Texas Tech or Texas A&M but no Big 5 conference played in any tournament besides the NCAA or NIT last year).

(02-26-2017 08:06 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  It's still a week away but since the 2016-17 season basketball thread is so long, I thought I'd start a new thread to talk about the men's conference tournament. Plus with the men winning 20 games (first time since 2003-04) and clinching a winning conference record (also first time since going 12-6 in both 03-04 and 04-05 in the WAC), why not give them an extra thread.

The conference tournament is March 8-11 in Birmingham. On March 8, the 5th through 12th place teams play in the first round. The quarterfinals are on March 9, the semifinals on March 10 and the finals on March 11. UAB will probably play in the evening session on Wednesday so their finish will likely determine whether 5-12 and 8-9 is the evening session, or 6-11 and 7-10 is the evening session.

Here are the current CUSA standings.

(1) Middle Tennessee State 15-1 (has clinched regular season title but they host FIU and FAU next week)
(2) Louisiana Tech 13-4 (has clinched second place despite the loss at Rice; hosts USM to end the regular season on Saturday. They could finish in a tie for 2nd but will be the #2 seed regardless.)
(T3) Old Dominion and UTEP 11-5 (the two teams play at UTEP on Thursday and the winner will clinch a first-round bye; UTEP hosts Charlotte Saturday and ODU is at UTSA. The loser of the Thursday game will also clinch a bye if they win Saturday or if Rice loses either game next week)
(5) Rice 10-6 (at Marshall/WKU; will probably need at least 1 win to finish 5th but can not finish worse than 7th)
(6) Marshall 9-7 (Rice/UNT; can finish anywhere from 5th to 9th)
(7) UAB 8-8 (FAU/FIU)
(T8) Western Kentucky/UTSA 7-9 (WKU hosts UNT/Rice; UTSA hosts Charlotte/ODU)
(T10) Charlotte/FAU 6-10 (Charlotte is at UTSA/UTEP; FAU is at UAB/MT)
(12) USM 6-11 (at Louisiana Tech Saturday)
(T13) UNT and FIU 2-14 (both teams are eliminated from the tournament

If Charlotte, FAU and USM end in a 3-way tie at 6-12, FAU will be the 10 seed, Charlotte the 11 seed and USM the 12 seed based on their head-to-head finishes.

If we can sneak into a bye, it's not inconceivable that we win the conference tournament.

UTEP beats Charlotte so they're the 4 seed. La Tech destroys USM so USM is the 12 seed. We'll be the 5 seed and will play USM in the afternoon session on Wednesday.

(03-04-2017 05:19 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  UTEP beats Charlotte so they're the 4 seed. La Tech destroys USM so USM is the 12 seed. We'll be the 5 seed and will play USM in the afternoon session on Wednesday.

USM will be confident as they have twice come back from huge deficits against us only to lose on the final possession. It's a mismatch on paper, but Southern Miss brings out the worst in us in the second halves.

Final regular season standings (and tournament seeds)...

(1) Middle Tennessee State 17-1 (would be a joke btw if they don't get an at-large if they don't win the conference tournament although Vanderbilt - a team that they beat in Nashville - might get an at-large with 15 losses now)
(2) Louisiana Tech 14-4
(T3) Old Dominion & UTEP 12-6 (ODU is 3 seed, UTEP the 4 seed)
(5) Rice 11-7
(6) Marshall 10-8
(T7) UAB and Western Kentucky 9-9 (UAB is the 7 seed, WKU is the 8 seed)
(9) UTSA 8-10
(10) Charlotte 7-11
(T11) USM/FAU 6-12 (FAU is 11 seed, USM is 12 seed)
(13) FIU 3-15
(14) UNT 2-16

And the tournament schedule...

Wednesday, March 8
(8) WKU vs. (9) UTSA (Campus Insiders) - 11:30a
(12) Southern Miss vs. (5) Rice (Campus Insiders) - 2:00p
(10) Charlotte vs. (7) UAB (Campus Insiders) - 5:30p
(11) Florida Atlantic vs. (6) Marshall (Campus Insiders) - 8:00p

Thursday, March 9
WKU/UTSA vs. (1) Middle Tennessee (ASN) - 11:30a
USM/Rice vs. (4) UTEP (ASN) - 2:00p
CHA/UAB vs. (2) Louisiana Tech (ASN) - 5:30p
FAU/MAR vs. (3) Old Dominion (ASN) - 8:00p

Friday, March 10
Semifinal # 1 (CBS Sports Network) - 11:30p
Semifinal # 2 (CBS Sports Network) - 2:00p

Saturday, March 12
Championship Game (CBS Sports Network) - 7:30p

I was bored last year and looked up our conf. tourney record since 1976 to confirm my thinking that it was pretty bad:

13-24 1st game
2-11 2nd game
0-2 3rd game
0-0 4th game or finals

Even our good teams have had very little conference tournament success, especially beyond the first round game. Hopefully things will change this year.

if my math is right, we missed the tourney altogether in 4 other seasons.

(03-04-2017 11:55 PM)MemOwl Wrote:  if my math is right, we missed the tourney altogether in 4 other seasons.

Correct - in 1985, 1987, and 1988 (the Southwest Conference tournament took only the top 8 out of 9 teams, and the Owls managed to finish in the basement those three seasons), and 1998 (the WAC tournament only took the top 12 out of 16 teams). Actually, Rice finished in the SWC basement as well in 1986, but because one of the schools was on probation (remember, this was the SWC) and ineligible for the tournament, the Owls automatically go to go.

(03-05-2017 01:43 AM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  

(03-04-2017 11:55 PM)MemOwl Wrote:  if my math is right, we missed the tourney altogether in 4 other seasons.

Correct - in 1985, 1987, and 1988 (the Southwest Conference tournament took only the top 8 out of 9 teams, and the Owls managed to finish in the basement those three seasons), and 1998 (the WAC tournament only took the top 12 out of 16 teams). Actually, Rice finished in the SWC basement as well in 1986, but because one of the schools was on probation (remember, this was the SWC) and ineligible for the tournament, the Owls automatically go to go.

It's amazing just how bad Rice was in all sports back then. For about a decade, we managed to be horrible in pretty much every sport. We basically leeched off the rest of the SWC, and they eventually got tired of it.

Our two third round semifinal losses btw were both to UH. In 84 we lost 53-50 to the Olajuwon-led eventual national championship runner-ups in The Summit and in 07 by 15 in Memphis.

I don't know if any of our 2nd tournament games were also semifinals. Most if not all were quarterfinals.

(03-05-2017 08:14 AM)DFW Owl Wrote:  Our two third round semifinal losses btw were both to UH. In 84 we lost 53-50 to the Olajuwon-led eventual national championship runner-ups in The Summit and in 07 by 15 in Memphis.

I don't know if any of our 2nd tournament games were also semifinals. Most if not all were quarterfinals.

I remember my dad taking me to the '84 game at The Summit. It was a last minute trip and he had to explain to me what a "scalper" was and not to tell my mom. IIRC, A&M almost upset Arkansas in the other semifinal. NBC scheduled to air the final on Sunday thinking it would be a showdown between UH and the Joe Kline-led Razorbacks, and came very close to having Rice vs A&M.

Rice getting a mini RPI push from Omaha advancing to the Summit League championship game. I had said earlier in the year (maybe to myself, maybe publicly in this board - can't remember which now) that at least one of the non-conference teams we beat this year would advance to the NCAA tournament. My initial thought was Montana State would be that team, but Omaha now is the highest seed remaining in the Summit League (they are the 3 seed and are playing the 4 seed I believe in the title game). Another possibility is Houston Baptist as they have won 9 games in a row and the Southland Conference tournament is wide open.

TSU will be the favorite to win the SWAC tournament too, although we didn't beat them.

(03-07-2017 08:02 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Rice getting a mini RPI push from Omaha advancing to the Summit League championship game. I had said earlier in the year (maybe to myself, maybe publicly in this board - can't remember which now) that at least one of the non-conference teams we beat this year would advance to the NCAA tournament. My initial thought was Montana State would be that team, ...

Montana State (16-15 overall, 11-7 conference) is the #6 seed in the Big Sky tournament, which starts tonight. They play Southern Utah (5-26; 3-15) at 8:05 (Pacific time) tonight.

The Bobcats need five tournament wins to make The Dance.

KenPom seems to like our odds slightly better than where we're actually seeded. He has us with the 4th best odds of winning the tournament even though we're just seeded 5th. He's giving us an 86% chance to get past Southern Miss, and a 53% chance to get to the semis.

http://kenpom.com/blog/2017-conference-u...-forecast/

(03-07-2017 05:44 PM)Glass Wrote:  KenPom seems to like our odds slightly better than where we're actually seeded. He has us with the 4th best odds of winning the tournament even though we're just seeded 5th. He's giving us an 86% chance to get past Southern Miss, and a 53% chance to get to the semis.

http://kenpom.com/blog/2017-conference-u...-forecast/

I love it when you're half full.

(03-07-2017 06:27 PM)Rick Gerlach Wrote:  

(03-07-2017 05:44 PM)Glass Wrote:  KenPom seems to like our odds slightly better than where we're actually seeded. He has us with the 4th best odds of winning the tournament even though we're just seeded 5th. He's giving us an 86% chance to get past Southern Miss, and a 53% chance to get to the semis.

http://kenpom.com/blog/2017-conference-u...-forecast/

I love it when you're half full.

Nice.

I think the 86% is a bit high considering we squeaked out both wins over Southern Miss this year.

This team is good enough to beat anyone in the league (including MTSU in my opinion) but the likelihood of winning 4 really close games is really, really low