I see Scherzer had another easy 7 shutout innings. He's amazingly consistent

looking at the pen....
2016 4.94 ERA- #27, 4.52 FIP #28, 70% LOB #29
2017 4.50 ERA- #20, 3.51 FIP #14, 65.7% LOB #25

I think it's reasonable to think the D'backs will see their pitching overall improve quite a bit from last year.
right now
2016 5.09 ERA #30, 4.50 FIP #26, 68.7% LOB #28
2017 3.71 ERA #13, 3.41 FIP #4, 71.9% LOB #23

and looking it's not like they started strong pitching wise last year. 4.90 ERA in April, 4.47 FIP in April, 70.6% LOB in April.

another point about Arizona. After this weekend they'll have played 7 each with San Francisco and Los Angeles, and 3 with Cleveland. That's 17 of 20 games vs playoff teams from last year. So it's not like they've done this vs bad teams either. They have only 12 games with playoff teams from last year after Sunday until end of July.

But then August hits....
3 @ Cubs
3 @ Giants
3 LA Dodgers
3 Cubs
2 Houston
2 @ Houston
3 @ Twins
4 @ Mets
3 Giants
3 LA Dodgers

think it's interesting the Treinen era as closer may be done. He came in a 3-0 game last night and gave up 2 hits and 2 walks(including a bases loaded walk) to make things way too interesting. Shawn Kelley came in and 2 outs.

(04-19-2017 09:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  another point about Arizona. After this weekend they'll have played 7 each with San Francisco and Los Angeles, and 3 with Cleveland. That's 17 of 20 games vs playoff teams from last year. So it's not like they've done this vs bad teams either. They have only 12 games with playoff teams from last year after Sunday until end of July.

But then August hits....
3 @ Cubs
3 @ Giants
3 LA Dodgers
3 Cubs
2 Houston
2 @ Houston
3 @ Twins
4 @ Mets
3 Giants
3 LA Dodgers

i don't consider the Giants to be all that good

(04-19-2017 09:59 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 09:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  another point about Arizona. After this weekend they'll have played 7 each with San Francisco and Los Angeles, and 3 with Cleveland. That's 17 of 20 games vs playoff teams from last year. So it's not like they've done this vs bad teams either. They have only 12 games with playoff teams from last year after Sunday until end of July.

But then August hits....
3 @ Cubs
3 @ Giants
3 LA Dodgers
3 Cubs
2 Houston
2 @ Houston
3 @ Twins
4 @ Mets
3 Giants
3 LA Dodgers

i don't consider the Giants to be all that good

there aren't that many good teams.

And Arizona between now and break sees all of
3 with Washington May 2-4
2 with Detroit May 9,10
3 with Mets May 15-17
2 with Detroit June 13-14
3 with Dodgers July 4-6

maybe 3 more with Cards June 27-29.

that's really it. even later in July only 3 with Nats July 21-23 and 4 with Cards July 27-30. So only 23 games that are really decent between now and end of July. That's out of 85 games after Sunday. So Arizona could really have a chance to have a great record by start of August.

so the Mets have started in 14 of the 15 game suspension for Familia 7-7. All vs NL East teams non Nats. Same problem Mets had last year. 7-12 vs Nats but then 40-36 overall vs division- so only 33-24 vs rest of division. Nats were 12-7 vs Mets with 51-25 in division- so 39-18 vs rest of division. Considering Nats won division by 8, huge gap there. Already Nats 6-4 vs division while Mets 7-7 so a game difference.

(04-19-2017 11:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so the Mets have started in 14 of the 15 game suspension for Familia 7-7. All vs NL East teams non Nats. Same problem Mets had last year. 7-12 vs Nats but then 40-36 overall vs division- so only 33-24 vs rest of division. Nats were 12-7 vs Mets with 51-25 in division- so 39-18 vs rest of division. Considering Nats won division by 8, huge gap there. Already Nats 6-4 vs division while Mets 7-7 so a game difference.

i'll be honest, my eyes just skip over all those numbers

(04-19-2017 11:30 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 11:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so the Mets have started in 14 of the 15 game suspension for Familia 7-7. All vs NL East teams non Nats. Same problem Mets had last year. 7-12 vs Nats but then 40-36 overall vs division- so only 33-24 vs rest of division. Nats were 12-7 vs Mets with 51-25 in division- so 39-18 vs rest of division. Considering Nats won division by 8, huge gap there. Already Nats 6-4 vs division while Mets 7-7 so a game difference.

i'll be honest, my eyes just skip over all those numbers

bottom line- Mets struggled with the rest of the division way more than the Nats did. Mets 33-24 vs other 3 teams last year, Nats 39-18. And seen that so far this year as well. Those games matter.

(04-19-2017 08:47 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 08:15 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Speaking of BABIP, have you looked at the Diamondbacks? .341! Kind of explains things a little...

true. but their pitching babip is .301 as well. Just looking, that's 5th worst in MLB right now.

and would say with their batting, they are tied for 4th in extra base hits non homers. So it might not be as fluky as you think.

With RISP their BABIP is .438, which is 67 points higher than the Red Sox at #2. The rockies were the 2016 leader at .332. So yeah, I'd say that's fluky

looking- right now they are 39-89 in those situations so not exactly a lot of at bats in that situation. Of the 39 hits, 10 are extra base hit- non homers- 6 doubles and 4 triples.

Also looking at the quality of the hitting- with scoring position- the dbacks are hitting only 9.8% soft right now. That's best in the league and one of only 3 teams lower than 17.7%. So they aren't getting cheated in those at bats by any stretch.

Detailed stats aren't needed here. In the last 5 years, the highest team BABIP for a season was .329 (Red Sox, who have an exceptionally high BABIP park factor). Dbacks highest in that time period was .316. The number is coming down.

swoosh's sig is safe.

(04-19-2017 11:49 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 08:47 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 08:15 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Speaking of BABIP, have you looked at the Diamondbacks? .341! Kind of explains things a little...

true. but their pitching babip is .301 as well. Just looking, that's 5th worst in MLB right now.

and would say with their batting, they are tied for 4th in extra base hits non homers. So it might not be as fluky as you think.

With RISP their BABIP is .438, which is 67 points higher than the Red Sox at #2. The rockies were the 2016 leader at .332. So yeah, I'd say that's fluky

looking- right now they are 39-89 in those situations so not exactly a lot of at bats in that situation. Of the 39 hits, 10 are extra base hit- non homers- 6 doubles and 4 triples.

Also looking at the quality of the hitting- with scoring position- the dbacks are hitting only 9.8% soft right now. That's best in the league and one of only 3 teams lower than 17.7%. So they aren't getting cheated in those at bats by any stretch.

Detailed stats aren't needed here. In the last 5 years, the highest team BABIP for a season was .329 (Red Sox, who have an exceptionally high BABIP park factor). Dbacks highest in that time period was .316. The number is coming down.

swoosh's sig is safe.

Biggest surprise of 2017 so far: Mariners keep selling out of toasted grasshoppers.



What the absolute ****?!

so looking at the standings. Dodgers with their 8 games now vs lefty starters- 3 more than anyone else in the NL and 1 more than Houston in the AL.

1 thing looking at stats... Nats numbers vs lefties (which you think they would see a lot of)- are off the charts.. in 32 PA(27 ab)- 4 walks, 1 SF- but then 13 hits with 4 doubles and a homer. An obscene .522 babip. Key here has been Zimmerman. If he continues to bat the way he has- Nats lineup just gets longer. Imagine when Rendon and Turner start producing more.

(04-19-2017 09:24 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Buxton went 0-4 last night, albeit with no K's. His fWAR is already -.6 and his wRC+ is -32. He's getting really close to already costing the Twins one win, which is pretty amazing considering they've only played 14 games.

Not as bad as Buxton, but Trevor Story is pushing the limits of acceptable K% as well. Only 2 HR and K% of 36. Last year I kept wondering how high his K% would have to go before neutralizing his production. He finished at K% of 31 and WAR of 2.8, so not great but still above league average. And he's already negative WAR in 2017...

(04-19-2017 12:40 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 09:24 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Buxton went 0-4 last night, albeit with no K's. His fWAR is already -.6 and his wRC+ is -32. He's getting really close to already costing the Twins one win, which is pretty amazing considering they've only played 14 games.

Not as bad as Buxton, but Trevor Story is pushing the limits of acceptable K% as well. Only 2 HR and K% of 36. Last year I kept wondering how high his K% would have to go before neutralizing his production. He finished at K% of 31 and WAR of 2.8, so not great but still above league average. And he's already negative WAR in 2017...

to be fair last year's WAR would've probably been higher had he played more than 97 games. And while he has played quite poorly so far, his .167 BABIP tells me he'll bounce back pretty nicely. No player in Coors can have a BABIP below the league average. The rockies consistently lead the league in BABIP and with good reason

one thing with Story is his platoon stats which were pretty normal last year (like .280 vs lefties .268 vs righties) are off the charts this year (4-15 vs lefties, 2-33 vs righties). That should normalize one would think.

(04-19-2017 01:14 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 12:40 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 09:24 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Buxton went 0-4 last night, albeit with no K's. His fWAR is already -.6 and his wRC+ is -32. He's getting really close to already costing the Twins one win, which is pretty amazing considering they've only played 14 games.

Not as bad as Buxton, but Trevor Story is pushing the limits of acceptable K% as well. Only 2 HR and K% of 36. Last year I kept wondering how high his K% would have to go before neutralizing his production. He finished at K% of 31 and WAR of 2.8, so not great but still above league average. And he's already negative WAR in 2017...

to be fair last year's WAR would've probably been higher had he played more than 97 games. And while he has played quite poorly so far, his .167 BABIP tells me he'll bounce back pretty nicely. No player in Coors can have a BABIP below the league average. The rockies consistently lead the league in BABIP and with good reason

Probably right about last year's WAR, but low BABIP notwithstanding he's gonna struggle to be even league average with a K% of 36. Has to fix that, at least a little.

(04-19-2017 02:47 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 01:14 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 12:40 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 09:24 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Buxton went 0-4 last night, albeit with no K's. His fWAR is already -.6 and his wRC+ is -32. He's getting really close to already costing the Twins one win, which is pretty amazing considering they've only played 14 games.

Not as bad as Buxton, but Trevor Story is pushing the limits of acceptable K% as well. Only 2 HR and K% of 36. Last year I kept wondering how high his K% would have to go before neutralizing his production. He finished at K% of 31 and WAR of 2.8, so not great but still above league average. And he's already negative WAR in 2017...

to be fair last year's WAR would've probably been higher had he played more than 97 games. And while he has played quite poorly so far, his .167 BABIP tells me he'll bounce back pretty nicely. No player in Coors can have a BABIP below the league average. The rockies consistently lead the league in BABIP and with good reason

Probably right about last year's WAR, but low BABIP notwithstanding he's gonna struggle to be even league average with a K% of 36. Has to fix that, at least a little.

It's true that a K rate of 36% doesn't leave him with much leeway. That number would've led the league by a somewhat wide margin last year, as well as the year before. The 3 worst K victims of last season were Davis, Carter and Napoli and theiy posted wRC+'s of 111/112/113 (yes, really). So high K rates are not the end of the world, but Story's is actually 38.6% right now and that is far worse than Chris Davis's 32.9% (worst from last year). I too am curious to see what the breaking point is. Buxton is at 46%, but his problems extend beyond K's. When you also don't walk or hit the ball with any authority, you're going to have a hard time. Of course it's difficult to make hard contact if you're not making contact at all

Whether or not you think Ks are meaningful, this is impressive. Mookie Betts hasn't struck out since last September 12 (128 at bats). He's...

Swinging at only 18.7% of pitches outside the zone.
Swinging at 56.4% of pitches inside the zone.
Swinging at 38.5% of overall pitches.
Making contact with 76.5% of pitches his swings at outside the plate.
Making contact with 98.3% of pitches he swings at inside the zone.
Making contact with 93.2% of pitches his swings at overall.

He swings and misses at only 2.5% of total pitches he sees. Wow.