This is an interesting (and very long) article describing the forces acting on the TV industry. The interesting conclusion is that ESPN will likely be the only part of the existing "bundled" TV structure to survive and the reason for that will be the large catalogue of sports rights it controls.

Which is why I continue to maintain that people who think ESPN will stop spending money on sports rights are crazy. ESPN's entire future is dependent on having a near monopoly on sports. Without that monopoly, they are just a glorified CBS-Sports Network. Without that monopoly, they cease to be a "must have" commodity.

https://stratechery.com/2017/the-great-u...MediaREDEF

Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

(01-31-2017 08:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

Bottom line is attendance is going down nation wide. and that trend wont change anytime soon.

(01-31-2017 08:58 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

The impression of 8,500 more fans at games is not tantamount to $20 million; attendance is down all around, so eyeballs will still drive the market.

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

I am hoping for 10 to 15, but that is incredibly optimistic.

(01-31-2017 08:58 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

Nobody said it would. The Big East didn't get anywhere near 20 million. Thier 2011 offer was about 10 million a team. The Big East was only making about 4 million per team vs everyone else at 15 million or so. But the Big East WAS considered a P5 and DID get a full share of the BCS. Being a power conference doesn't necessarily mean you'll make what the more established power conferences are making. In fact, thats unlikely to ever happen.

(01-31-2017 10:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:58 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

Nobody said it would. The Big East didn't get anywhere near 20 million. Thier 2011 offer was about 10 million a team. The Big East was only making about 4 million per team vs everyone else at 15 million or so. But the Big East WAS considered a P5 and DID get a full share of the BCS. Being a power conference doesn't necessarily mean you'll make what the more established power conferences are making. In fact, thats unlikely to ever happen.

I think it was more than 10 million per team, considering the Big East only had 8 football members at the time.

(01-31-2017 09:13 PM)Phil Lacio Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

I am hoping for 10 to 15, but that is incredibly optimistic.

I think anything less than $6M per team is an insult.
Aresco & co. should aim for at least $10M per team.
JMO though.

(01-31-2017 11:46 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 09:13 PM)Phil Lacio Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

I am hoping for 10 to 15, but that is incredibly optimistic.

I think anything less than $6M per team is an insult.
Aresco & co. should aim for at least $10M per team.
JMO though.

They should go in at 15 and settle for 10.

(01-31-2017 11:46 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 09:13 PM)Phil Lacio Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

I am hoping for 10 to 15, but that is incredibly optimistic.

I think anything less than $6M per team is an insult.
Aresco & co. should aim for at least $10M per team.
JMO though.

Ive seen differing estimates. That 2011 ESPN offer was for football and basketball. So, to be fair, its hard to figure because we dont know the proposed split. At that time the Big East basketball/football earnings were about equal (in fact, truth be told, they actually made more from basketball). They had 16 Olympic sports teams---so the split makes a huge difference in the all-sports payout. If it was to be 50-50---you can see how that would affect the payout to all-sports teams. I think that's why you see such a wide range of per team estimates--people are using different split estimates.

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We're still a P, but not a 6, More like 6.9

.

(01-31-2017 08:58 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

Optics.


.

(01-31-2017 10:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:58 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 02:46 PM)KNIGHTTIME Wrote:  Well if you look at the streaming services like Playstation vue, they all have Disney/Espn channels as a key piece. CBS sports isn't even available.

I think staying with espn is a must if they can at least double our pay and keep exposure and possibly push the p6 narrative. My guess is we get $4-5 million.

If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

Nobody said it would. The Big East didn't get anywhere near 20 million. Thier 2011 offer was about 10 million a team. The Big East was only making about 4 million per team vs everyone else at 15 million or so. But the Big East WAS considered a P5 and DID get a full share of the BCS. Being a power conference doesn't necessarily mean you'll make what the more established power conferences are making. In fact, thats unlikely to ever happen.

I disagree with this completely. The money is pretty much everything at this point.

As I've stated before, there is really not a tangible difference between us and the P5 as far as barriers go. The BCS is gone. If we produce a team that is ranked in the top 4, then we should have a team in the playoff. We just happen to have an added bonus of potentially going to a NY6 bowl if we don't have a top 4 team. Everyone seems to scoff at that, but neither of our NY6 teams had any business being in the playoff at 10th and 8th respectively, so who cares.

With the money comes more competitive teams. More competitive teams get better bowl affiliations, and potentially a top 4 team.

(02-01-2017 10:27 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 10:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:58 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 06:47 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  If this is the $$ number, We are not remotely a P6.

We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

Nobody said it would. The Big East didn't get anywhere near 20 million. Thier 2011 offer was about 10 million a team. The Big East was only making about 4 million per team vs everyone else at 15 million or so. But the Big East WAS considered a P5 and DID get a full share of the BCS. Being a power conference doesn't necessarily mean you'll make what the more established power conferences are making. In fact, thats unlikely to ever happen.

I disagree with this completely. The money is pretty much everything at this point.

As I've stated before, there is really not a tangible difference between us and the P5 as far as barriers go. The BCS is gone. If we produce a team that is ranked in the top 4, then we should have a team in the playoff. We just happen to have an added bonus of potentially going to a NY6 bowl if we don't have a top 4 team. Everyone seems to scoff at that, but neither of our NY6 teams had any business being in the playoff at 10th and 8th respectively, so who cares.

With the money comes more competitive teams. More competitive teams get better bowl affiliations, and potentially a top 4 team.

I don't agree. The recruits don't get a dime of that tv money. It means nothing to them---and recruiting in the end decides what happens on the field. The top recruits care about being on tv, competing for a national title, and being in major bowls. Being a P5 today means you have a contract with a guaranteed slot in a NYD bowl. The money comes via delivering a solid fan base and P5 ratings. Those are two different things.

Frankly, if we land a contract with a NYD Bowl and have legit access to the playoff (not the pretend access that a stacked and rigged selection committee currently offers), im finewith that---even if we make less than the current P5. That's a power conference and would be considered so by the press. Pay for that conference would be less---but it will look far more like a P5 paycheck than a G5 payheck.

However, to attract NYD bowl contract, average attendance will need to be at least 40K (perhaps even higher). In the end, these bowls want to know they will sell tickets and be full. That's all they really care about.

(02-01-2017 11:04 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-01-2017 10:27 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 10:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:58 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We wont really be until we average 40K a game. When the AAC as a league averages 40K per game, we will be hard to ignore. That means you'd probably have 2 or 3 schools averaging around 60K, most schools averaging around 40K, and a couple of Wake Forest stragglers down in the 25-30K range. That would be very similar to the Big East Conference of the BCS era.

I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

Nobody said it would. The Big East didn't get anywhere near 20 million. Thier 2011 offer was about 10 million a team. The Big East was only making about 4 million per team vs everyone else at 15 million or so. But the Big East WAS considered a P5 and DID get a full share of the BCS. Being a power conference doesn't necessarily mean you'll make what the more established power conferences are making. In fact, thats unlikely to ever happen.

I disagree with this completely. The money is pretty much everything at this point.

As I've stated before, there is really not a tangible difference between us and the P5 as far as barriers go. The BCS is gone. If we produce a team that is ranked in the top 4, then we should have a team in the playoff. We just happen to have an added bonus of potentially going to a NY6 bowl if we don't have a top 4 team. Everyone seems to scoff at that, but neither of our NY6 teams had any business being in the playoff at 10th and 8th respectively, so who cares.

With the money comes more competitive teams. More competitive teams get better bowl affiliations, and potentially a top 4 team.

I don't agree. The recruits don't get a dime of that tv money. It means nothing to them---and recruiting in the end decides what happens on the field. The top recruits care about being on tv, competing for a national title, and being in major bowls. Being a P5 today means you have a contract with a guaranteed slot in a NYD bowl. The money comes via delivering a solid fan base and P5 ratings. Those are two different things.

Frankly, if we land a contract with a NYD Bowl and have legit access to the playoff (not the pretend access that a stacked and rigged selection committee currently offers), im finewith that---even if we make less than the current P5. That's a power conference and would be considered so by the press. Pay for that conference would be less---but it will look far more like a P5 paycheck than a G5 payheck.

However, to attract NYD bowl contract, average attendance will need to be at least 40K (perhaps even higher). In the end, these bowls want to know they will sell tickets and be full. That's all they really care about.

Money is still a factor. There are SEC defensive coordinators that make about as much as one of our schools' entire assistant coaching staff combined.

(02-01-2017 11:22 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(02-01-2017 11:04 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-01-2017 10:27 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 10:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 08:58 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  I fail to see how bumping our average attendance by 8,500 additional people attending games would make our TV rights worth $20 million more.

Nobody said it would. The Big East didn't get anywhere near 20 million. Thier 2011 offer was about 10 million a team. The Big East was only making about 4 million per team vs everyone else at 15 million or so. But the Big East WAS considered a P5 and DID get a full share of the BCS. Being a power conference doesn't necessarily mean you'll make what the more established power conferences are making. In fact, thats unlikely to ever happen.

I disagree with this completely. The money is pretty much everything at this point.

As I've stated before, there is really not a tangible difference between us and the P5 as far as barriers go. The BCS is gone. If we produce a team that is ranked in the top 4, then we should have a team in the playoff. We just happen to have an added bonus of potentially going to a NY6 bowl if we don't have a top 4 team. Everyone seems to scoff at that, but neither of our NY6 teams had any business being in the playoff at 10th and 8th respectively, so who cares.

With the money comes more competitive teams. More competitive teams get better bowl affiliations, and potentially a top 4 team.

I don't agree. The recruits don't get a dime of that tv money. It means nothing to them---and recruiting in the end decides what happens on the field. The top recruits care about being on tv, competing for a national title, and being in major bowls. Being a P5 today means you have a contract with a guaranteed slot in a NYD bowl. The money comes via delivering a solid fan base and P5 ratings. Those are two different things.

Frankly, if we land a contract with a NYD Bowl and have legit access to the playoff (not the pretend access that a stacked and rigged selection committee currently offers), im finewith that---even if we make less than the current P5. That's a power conference and would be considered so by the press. Pay for that conference would be less---but it will look far more like a P5 paycheck than a G5 payheck.

However, to attract NYD bowl contract, average attendance will need to be at least 40K (perhaps even higher). In the end, these bowls want to know they will sell tickets and be full. That's all they really care about.

Money is still a factor. There are SEC defensive coordinators that make about as much as one of our schools' entire assistant coaching staff combined.

I agree---but if you accomplish what Im talking about---we wont be making 2 million a team. We'd likely be in that 10-15 million a team category. Even if we had a NYD contract bowl, we'd never match the pay level of the other more established power conferences because we lack true blue blood anchor teams. We don't have a Michigan, a Ohio St, a Alabama, or a Texas. That's why those conferences command 20-30 million a team.

Look at it like a hurricane. At 40K average attendance, we'd cross from a tropical storm to a minimal category 1 hurricane. The other power conferences would be much more powerful category 3-5 hurricanes. So, our payout would reflect that.

(02-01-2017 11:55 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-01-2017 11:22 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(02-01-2017 11:04 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-01-2017 10:27 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(01-31-2017 10:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Nobody said it would. The Big East didn't get anywhere near 20 million. Thier 2011 offer was about 10 million a team. The Big East was only making about 4 million per team vs everyone else at 15 million or so. But the Big East WAS considered a P5 and DID get a full share of the BCS. Being a power conference doesn't necessarily mean you'll make what the more established power conferences are making. In fact, thats unlikely to ever happen.

I disagree with this completely. The money is pretty much everything at this point.

As I've stated before, there is really not a tangible difference between us and the P5 as far as barriers go. The BCS is gone. If we produce a team that is ranked in the top 4, then we should have a team in the playoff. We just happen to have an added bonus of potentially going to a NY6 bowl if we don't have a top 4 team. Everyone seems to scoff at that, but neither of our NY6 teams had any business being in the playoff at 10th and 8th respectively, so who cares.

With the money comes more competitive teams. More competitive teams get better bowl affiliations, and potentially a top 4 team.

I don't agree. The recruits don't get a dime of that tv money. It means nothing to them---and recruiting in the end decides what happens on the field. The top recruits care about being on tv, competing for a national title, and being in major bowls. Being a P5 today means you have a contract with a guaranteed slot in a NYD bowl. The money comes via delivering a solid fan base and P5 ratings. Those are two different things.

Frankly, if we land a contract with a NYD Bowl and have legit access to the playoff (not the pretend access that a stacked and rigged selection committee currently offers), im finewith that---even if we make less than the current P5. That's a power conference and would be considered so by the press. Pay for that conference would be less---but it will look far more like a P5 paycheck than a G5 payheck.

However, to attract NYD bowl contract, average attendance will need to be at least 40K (perhaps even higher). In the end, these bowls want to know they will sell tickets and be full. That's all they really care about.

Money is still a factor. There are SEC defensive coordinators that make about as much as one of our schools' entire assistant coaching staff combined.

I agree---but if you accomplish what Im talking about---we wont be making 2 million a team. We'd likely be in that 10-15 million a team category. Even if we had a NYD contract bowl, we'd never match the pay level of the other more established power conferences because we lack true blue blood anchor teams. We don't have a Michigan, a Ohio St, a Alabama, or a Texas. That's why those conferences command 20-30 million a team.

Look at it like a hurricane. At 40K average attendance, we'd cross from a tropical storm to a minimal category 1 hurricane. The other power conferences would be much more powerful category 3-5 hurricanes. So, our payout would reflect that.

I think you might be giving too much weight to how much tv networks consider game attendance in their decisions to pay out loot. If, for some reason, Hawaii pulled Michigan tv ratings despite not everyone wanting to fly to Hawaii for a game, ESPN would still pay them lots of money.