(01-31-2017 05:21 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 07:41 PM)Wadszip Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 03:07 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...onference/

This site does the predictions of seeds and bids per conference. Right now we sit at 1.3 bids.

Akron at 24-7 is believed to have a 25% shot at an at large. With 4 losses to give, I could see them at least getting mentioned if they keep winning. Having one of the 19 or 20 win MAC teams knocking them off in the championship game would help. Losing to Creighton and Gonzaga are not bad losses. Youngstown State however is... but it was the first game of the season??? If they can muscle up to .500, and Akron doesn't drop one to a bottom dweller... They will be a midmajor name to speak of in a month or so.

If you click on Akron it has their odds to make they tourney via win total:
24 wins = 3.2%
25 wins = 18.2%
26 wins = 50.9%
27 wins = 80.5%
28 wins = 95.9%
29 wins = 99.6%
30+ wins = 100%

31 wins means Akron wins out and wins the tourney. With 1 loss in the title game it believes Akron still has a 100% chance to get in. If Akron wins 29 but loses in the semi's it believes Akron is basically in. They can MAYBE lose a regular season game or two and PROBABLY get in if they lose in the championship game at 27-6.

The win total and percentage is allowing you to lose games but still possibly still means you win the conference tourney. For Example Toledo has a 72% shot if they get to 23 wins because it's assuming that one loss the rest of the way means it won't come in the MAC tourney. At 24 wins we have a 100% shot because it means that Toledo won out and won the MAC. The 23 win total in no way indicates we have a 72% chance of an at large if that loss came in the MACC game.

I do like the different amounts of information teamrankings.com provides. But I'm not going to put any stock in those odds. Last year, IIR, they had Akron as having well over a 50 percent chance of getting an at-large bid entering the MAC tournament last year. I think even when they lost to Buffalo, it was still around 50 percent. Akron, as it turned out, wasn't even on the committee's radar.

That team was 26-8 and had an overall better resume than what a 26-8 team would have this year.

This isn't using any sort of analytical formula, but I would guess the odds would be more like this:

24 wins: 0%
25 wins: 0%
26 wins: 0%
27 wins: 10%
28 wins: 25%
29 wins: 50%
30 wins: 90%

In short, yes, Akron still has at-large hopes. But they would have to go 17-1 in MAC play and then lose in the MAC title game even to be a true toss-up. And would need to win out until the MAC title game to feel pretty confident. So, it's still extremely unlikely.

That site uses statistical analysis on history while also predicting the rest of the season. The site states that it believes Akron will only go 24-7... but if the rest of the predictions hold true and very fair... Its odds of making the tourney at 28-6 are 95.9%. That does not mean its odds of an At Large are as so. Its more so assuming that they went 15-3 in the league and won the MAC. Its At Large odds are probably closer to 50-50 at 28 wins... So 16-2 and a loss in the title game.

Which means in a pool of 8 teams with Oklahoma State, Michigan, Rhode Island, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, and Cal (8 bubble teams)... how would they fair?

For a snapshot Akron has a BPI of 75, SOR (strength of record) of 39, and RPI of 47. That would increase from now to then more than every team remaining BECAUSE they have an easier road and will continue to win games.

My prediction is they are last four OUT (Toss up) if they go 28-6 and lose in the title game. 29-5 and a loss in the title game is IN by 4 to 8 teams. So as far as losing games remaining for an AT-LARGE? Don't go worse than 16-2 in the league, must lose in the finals, and don't lose to a 7 seed or worse.

I think we're on the same page, though the first post is the one that threw me off since you said that teamrankings still would have Akron as a 25 percent chance as an at-large at 24 wins.

That's where I was saying those odds are off. And re-looking at your post, I think you meant to say at 24 wins Akron had a 25 percent chance of making it ... not a 25 percent as an at-large (since the at-large numbers you posted only have Akron at a 3.2 percent as an at-large at 24 wins).

Anyway, I agree with your second post. Though at 28 wins and not winning the title, I still it's more likely than not Akron misses, not quite 50-50, but they would be in that last four out group at worst.

Obviously, that means I think 29 is the number Akron would need to to have a legit shot.

Some of you may like this site which is a distillment of loads of bracketologists' current seedings. They currently have Akron as an auto bid and an average of 12,67 seeding. One bracket has them as 11, most are 13 with a bunch of 12's and a few 14's and 15's.
http://bracketmatrix.com

I'm in agreement that if the tournament started today, Akron would be most likely be a 12 seed, which is what they are listed as. Weird that they are still excluded from 5 brackets.

(02-02-2017 09:07 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'm in agreement that if the tournament started today, Akron would be most likely be a 12 seed, which is what they are listed as. Weird that they are still excluded from 5 brackets.

Three of them have Ohio as the MAC bid; the two others only list 48 teams.

I took it upon myself to find a bracketologist that would give a concise answer on where Akron stands. He said if he was to rank them among the bubble teams today, he'd have them 12-15 spots out. He estimates an Akron 11-2 finish, including loss in final, would put them right at the bubble with a 50/50 shot of getting in.

Question:
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?

Reply: First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

(02-03-2017 10:02 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I took it upon myself to find a bracketologist that would give a concise answer on where Akron stands. He said if he was to rank them among the bubble teams today, he'd have them 12-15 spots out. He estimates an Akron 11-2 finish, including loss in final, would put them right at the bubble with a 50/50 shot of getting in.

Question:
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?

Reply: First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

Wow. That was a great, well thought out response. Thank you for putting in the effort to get a true answer.

I think that seems like a pretty reasonable place to put the Zips at the moment. There really is no getting around how bad Akron's schedule has been this year.

(02-03-2017 11:21 AM)UAZippers Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 10:02 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I took it upon myself to find a bracketologist that would give a concise answer on where Akron stands. He said if he was to rank them among the bubble teams today, he'd have them 12-15 spots out. He estimates an Akron 11-2 finish, including loss in final, would put them right at the bubble with a 50/50 shot of getting in.

Question:
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?

Reply: First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

Wow. That was a great, well thought out response. Thank you for putting in the effort to get a true answer.

I think that seems like a pretty reasonable place to put the Zips at the moment. There really is no getting around how bad Akron's schedule has been this year.

Yes, you could tell he put a great deal of effort into his response. I was searching for a real answer, not a "Hahaha Akron has 0 quality wins, next question", and he gave it. I actually agree with his assessment as well.

(02-03-2017 11:21 AM)UAZippers Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 10:02 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I took it upon myself to find a bracketologist that would give a concise answer on where Akron stands. He said if he was to rank them among the bubble teams today, he'd have them 12-15 spots out. He estimates an Akron 11-2 finish, including loss in final, would put them right at the bubble with a 50/50 shot of getting in.

Question:
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?

Reply: First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

Wow. That was a great, well thought out response. Thank you for putting in the effort to get a true answer.

I think that seems like a pretty reasonable place to put the Zips at the moment. There really is no getting around how bad Akron's schedule has been this year.

Now I will feel guilty if EMU defeats Akron next Friday on national TV...

(02-03-2017 11:48 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 11:21 AM)UAZippers Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 10:02 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I took it upon myself to find a bracketologist that would give a concise answer on where Akron stands. He said if he was to rank them among the bubble teams today, he'd have them 12-15 spots out. He estimates an Akron 11-2 finish, including loss in final, would put them right at the bubble with a 50/50 shot of getting in.

Question:
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?

Reply: First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

Wow. That was a great, well thought out response. Thank you for putting in the effort to get a true answer.

I think that seems like a pretty reasonable place to put the Zips at the moment. There really is no getting around how bad Akron's schedule has been this year.

Yes, you could tell he put a great deal of effort into his response. I was searching for a real answer, not a "Hahaha Akron has 0 quality wins, next question", and he gave it. I actually agree with his assessment as well.

That was a very well thought out response, especially for somebody who I'm assuming probably hadn't given Akron too much though before you asked about the Zips.

His response is 100 percent spot on.

The past couple of days, I went through and tried to also gauge where Akron is and where they could end up. As Dave said, IF Akron were to run the table (or suffer one loss prior to the MAC title game), there is a chance, though that is even looking slimmer.

It now would be unprecedented if Akron gets in with its lack of quality wins. It's now looking like a huge long shot they'll even have one in the top 100 in KenPom, thanks to some of its non conference opponents crapping the bed the past week. Marshall, Irvine and Georgia Southern were all creeping toward possibly getting into top 100 territory and all three suffered two losses in the past week and a half, and each suffered at least one horrible loss. Even Mercer, which was creeping into the top 150, suffered a close loss the other day to Furman (a loss that actually saw them move up from 159 to 157; but a win there would've assuredly had them in the top 150).

Plus, in MAC play, the only teams with top 100 aspirations are Ohio and EMU, and they would likely need to beat Akron to have a shot, which then makes Akron's at large hopes moot.

The one bright side is that the bubble is weak in terms of it being almost completely filled with mid-majors (who like Akron are leading their leagues and are lacking marquee wins) or high majors with multiple marquee wins, but overall bad conference records (2-4 games below .500 in most cases).

Anyway, I think there are 32 teams safely in the field. Then there are 10 leagues that are auto-bid or bust. So, looking at 42 of the 68 spots accounted for. Then there are 13 other leagues where the leader is still alive in the at-large picture. For Akron, the Zips would need 12 of those teams to win the tournament titles to maximize their at-large chances (the 13th spot would go to the MAC champion).

So, lets just say all the other mid-major teams with some at-large chances go on to win the tournament title (which won't happen), there are 13 spots left. Here is roughly who Akron would be competing with:

1. Wichita State/Illinois State
2. VCU/Dayton
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. Rhode Island
6. Syracuse
7. Virginia Tech
8. Georgia Tech
9. Miami
10. Clemson
11. Wake Forest
12. TCU
13. Kansas State
14. Texas Tech
15. Oklahoma State
16. Marquette
17.Indiana
18. Iowa
19. Michigan
20. Cal
21. Utah
22. Arkansas
23. Alabama
24. Tennessee

There are a couple other high majors that could be included and a couple other A10, AAC, Colonial, etc. schools that are also mathematically still in it.

Obviously, the bubble is going to bust for a lot of these teams, but enough were Akron (which is near, or at, the bottom right now) can jump over 9 of them (assuming teams like Nevada, Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Wilmington, etc. all win their tourneys)? If teams like Nevada, MTSU, Vermont, Wilmington fall in the tournament, not only do you still have to jump 9 teams, but then also get in front of those regular season champs/losers in the tournament.

My adjusted percents for Akron's wins needed:

27: 0 percent
28: 10 percent
29: 25 percent
30: 50 percent

I really think if Akron wins out in the regular season and goes to the MAC title game (meaning a 23 game winning streak and almost for sure a top 20 national ranking) and loses, it's still probably no better than 50-50 they get in. As high as the poll ranking would be (may even still be ranked, or would still be in the receiving votes at worst), as high as the RPI would be (probably still top 25-30) and as high as the ESPN strength of record would be (still top 25); the team would be picked apart in KenPom, Sagarin, ESPN's general BPI ranking along with having a bad SOS and 0 quality wins.

Most importantly, one Akron loss, probably drops them to 6th in the all-important Maddawgz MAC power rankings (joking) .

It would depend on how the committee judges a team with a gaudy W/L record against teams like Clemson or Georgia Tech, who likely will be well below .500 in ACC play, but have racked up 5-6 top 50 wins.

Really, as an Akron fan, I hope the team isn't even thinking about at-large.

(02-03-2017 05:46 PM)Wadszip Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 11:48 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 11:21 AM)UAZippers Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 10:02 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I took it upon myself to find a bracketologist that would give a concise answer on where Akron stands. He said if he was to rank them among the bubble teams today, he'd have them 12-15 spots out. He estimates an Akron 11-2 finish, including loss in final, would put them right at the bubble with a 50/50 shot of getting in.

Question:
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?

Reply: First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

Wow. That was a great, well thought out response. Thank you for putting in the effort to get a true answer.

I think that seems like a pretty reasonable place to put the Zips at the moment. There really is no getting around how bad Akron's schedule has been this year.

Yes, you could tell he put a great deal of effort into his response. I was searching for a real answer, not a "Hahaha Akron has 0 quality wins, next question", and he gave it. I actually agree with his assessment as well.

Most importantly, one Akron loss, probably drops them to 6th in the all-important Maddawgz MAC power rankings (joking) .

What an environment in Mt Pleasant right now. Great game between the Chips and Broncos.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/colle...story.html

The Boston Globe thinks Akron should be in.

(02-03-2017 08:16 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/colle...story.html

The Boston Globe thinks Akron should be in.

If they can win out through the MACC game, they have an argument, I just think its early to talk about their chances with their current resume and how much conference season is left

(02-03-2017 08:28 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 08:16 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/colle...story.html

The Boston Globe thinks Akron should be in.

If they can win out through the MACC game, they have an argument, I just think its early to talk about their chances with their current resume and how much conference season is left

I just like that we're getting noticed.

This is a really weird conference this year, its not top heavy but the number 9 and 10 teams are as good as most mid major conferences 3 through 5 teams. There is really not a team you can call embarrassing and an automatic win for anybody.

And just when you think you have this conference figured out Buffalo goes into Muncie and wins by 4 touchdowns.

Well that's a rap folks. MAC for the 18th straight year will be a 1 bid league.

(02-04-2017 02:34 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Well that's a rap folks. MAC for the 18th straight year will be a1 bid league.

The only case of a MAC team besides Miami getting an at-large bid to the tourney was WMU in 1998. Could it be that no other school in the MAC has the institutional capability to do so, and now that our program is in the crapper the MAC's chances are slim to none?

I think it has more to do with undeserving teams than institutional capability, whatever that means. Miami never got a bid because of anything besides very good teams.

What I find weird is one would think the MAC would have stumbled into a deserving team at least once in these 18 years, but it hasn't.