https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...onference/
This site does the predictions of seeds and bids per conference. Right now we sit at 1.3 bids.
Akron at 24-7 is believed to have a 25% shot at an at large. With 4 losses to give, I could see them at least getting mentioned if they keep winning. Having one of the 19 or 20 win MAC teams knocking them off in the championship game would help. Losing to Creighton and Gonzaga are not bad losses. Youngstown State however is... but it was the first game of the season??? If they can muscle up to .500, and Akron doesn't drop one to a bottom dweller... They will be a midmajor name to speak of in a month or so.
If you click on Akron it has their odds to make they tourney via win total:
24 wins = 3.2%
25 wins = 18.2%
26 wins = 50.9%
27 wins = 80.5%
28 wins = 95.9%
29 wins = 99.6%
30+ wins = 100%
31 wins means Akron wins out and wins the tourney. With 1 loss in the title game it believes Akron still has a 100% chance to get in. If Akron wins 29 but loses in the semi's it believes Akron is basically in. They can MAYBE lose a regular season game or two and PROBABLY get in if they lose in the championship game at 27-6.
The win total and percentage is allowing you to lose games but still possibly still means you win the conference tourney. For Example Toledo has a 72% shot if they get to 23 wins because it's assuming that one loss the rest of the way means it won't come in the MAC tourney. At 24 wins we have a 100% shot because it means that Toledo won out and won the MAC. The 23 win total in no way indicates we have a 72% chance of an at large if that loss came in the MACC game.
One game out of a whole season can be considered an outlier and tossed out. No reason to freak out about it. EVERY team in D-I has a bad loss.
Using my un-scientific logic, Akron should be in:
1). Go 8 - 2 during the rest of the season.
2). Win their semi-finals game but lose the championship game.
That's enough in my humble opinion. If not, I'll go to the NCAA headquarters and help organize a protest march. :)
I felt better about Akron's at-large chances before a bunch of "bubble teams" decided to knock off ranked teams this past week. As it stands, I feel a 30-4 Akron team gets in but I can't see Akron going 18-0 in the regular season.
Does anyone know the last time a MAC team ran the regular season table?
None ever has in the MAC Tourney era. Not sure about the days when there were a lot fewer games played. 2002 KSU was 17-1, then three wins in the MAC tourney, then the Elite run, finishing 30-6 and ranked 12th in the Coaches Poll.
Edit: 1957-58 Miami was 12-0, and 1949-50 UC was 10-0.
Wichita State got an at-large at 24-8 last year with an 11 seed. The MVC isnt anything special but they do have name recognition. Akron is a virtually unknown school aside from LeBron James being from there. Anything more than 6 losses and I don't see them getting in unless they win the MAC Tourney.
(01-30-2017 09:42 AM)kreed5120 Wrote: [ -> ]I felt better about Akron's at-large chances before a bunch of "bubble teams" decided to knock off ranked teams this past week. As it stands, I feel a 30-4 Akron team gets in but I can't see Akron going 18-0 in the regular season.
Does anyone know the last time a MAC team ran the regular season table?
I'm standing by my 'hunch' that a six loss Akron team makes it.
Akron has 3 losses now. Assume 2 loses in conference and losing the MAC championship game.
That would be 16 - 2 reg. season conference and I got to believe good enough.
One bad loss means nothing and losing to top 10 teams also means nothing. Most tourney teams would be hard pressed to sweep Creighton and Gonzaga.
I don't believe that the MAC is down a little this year is decisive.
(01-30-2017 11:48 AM)emu steve Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2017 09:42 AM)kreed5120 Wrote: [ -> ]I felt better about Akron's at-large chances before a bunch of "bubble teams" decided to knock off ranked teams this past week. As it stands, I feel a 30-4 Akron team gets in but I can't see Akron going 18-0 in the regular season.
Does anyone know the last time a MAC team ran the regular season table?
I'm standing by my 'hunch' that a six loss Akron team makes it.
Akron has 3 losses now. Assume 2 loses in conference and losing the MAC championship game.
That would be 16 - 2 reg. season conference and I got to believe good enough.
One bad loss means nothing and losing to top 10 teams also means nothing. Most tourney teams would be hard pressed to sweep Creighton and Gonzaga.
I don't believe that the MAC is down a little this year is decisive.
Akron going 16-2 in the regular season then losing in the MACC seems like a real possibility. Right now Akron isn't getting any hype as an at-large possibility. I personally don't see Akron finishing 10-3 changing that. I don't want to say it won't happen as it's impossible to know where the bubble will be, but I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable on selection Sunday is that scenario plays out.
(01-30-2017 11:42 AM)george14 Wrote: [ -> ]Wichita State got an at-large at 24-8 last year with an 11 seed. The MVC isnt anything special but they do have name recognition. Akron is a virtually unknown school aside from LeBron James being from there. Anything more than 6 losses and I don't see them getting in unless they win the MAC Tourney.
That was a pretty highly regarded team last year. They started the season ranked #10, got as high as #9, then fell out after some early season tourney losses. They ran through the MVC and were back in the top 25 in January and February and went 16-2 with both conference losses coming later in Feb. Two wins in the NCAA. Definitely an at-large worthy team.
Yes, Akron getting vote(s) in both AP and coaches poll.
I'm not sure they are under the radar any more.
If they stay ranked say in the top 35 they should be in...
Every year there is lots of speculation and a good deal of optimism that this year is somehow different and this may be the year the MAC actually gets an at-large bid to the NCAA.....and every year (since 1999 was it?) it is always the same result. I guess hope does truly spring eternal. Sorry folks but it is NOT going to happen. In the eyes of the selection committee there are ALWAYS just way too many more deserving 16-14 type MAJOR teams with a ton of "good losses" to pick some mid-major just because it has 25+ wins.
(01-30-2017 03:07 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...onference/
This site does the predictions of seeds and bids per conference. Right now we sit at 1.3 bids.
Akron at 24-7 is believed to have a 25% shot at an at large. With 4 losses to give, I could see them at least getting mentioned if they keep winning. Having one of the 19 or 20 win MAC teams knocking them off in the championship game would help. Losing to Creighton and Gonzaga are not bad losses. Youngstown State however is... but it was the first game of the season??? If they can muscle up to .500, and Akron doesn't drop one to a bottom dweller... They will be a midmajor name to speak of in a month or so.
If you click on Akron it has their odds to make they tourney via win total:
24 wins = 3.2%
25 wins = 18.2%
26 wins = 50.9%
27 wins = 80.5%
28 wins = 95.9%
29 wins = 99.6%
30+ wins = 100%
31 wins means Akron wins out and wins the tourney. With 1 loss in the title game it believes Akron still has a 100% chance to get in. If Akron wins 29 but loses in the semi's it believes Akron is basically in. They can MAYBE lose a regular season game or two and PROBABLY get in if they lose in the championship game at 27-6.
The win total and percentage is allowing you to lose games but still possibly still means you win the conference tourney. For Example Toledo has a 72% shot if they get to 23 wins because it's assuming that one loss the rest of the way means it won't come in the MAC tourney. At 24 wins we have a 100% shot because it means that Toledo won out and won the MAC. The 23 win total in no way indicates we have a 72% chance of an at large if that loss came in the MACC game.
I do like the different amounts of information teamrankings.com provides. But I'm not going to put any stock in those odds. Last year, IIR, they had Akron as having well over a 50 percent chance of getting an at-large bid entering the MAC tournament last year. I think even when they lost to Buffalo, it was still around 50 percent. Akron, as it turned out, wasn't even on the committee's radar.
That team was 26-8 and had an overall better resume than what a 26-8 team would have this year.
This isn't using any sort of analytical formula, but I would guess the odds would be more like this:
24 wins: 0%
25 wins: 0%
26 wins: 0%
27 wins: 10%
28 wins: 25%
29 wins: 50%
30 wins: 90%
In short, yes, Akron still has at-large hopes. But they would have to go 17-1 in MAC play and then lose in the MAC title game even to be a true toss-up. And would need to win out until the MAC title game to feel pretty confident. So, it's still extremely unlikely.
(01-30-2017 07:41 PM)Wadszip Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2017 03:07 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...onference/
This site does the predictions of seeds and bids per conference. Right now we sit at 1.3 bids.
Akron at 24-7 is believed to have a 25% shot at an at large. With 4 losses to give, I could see them at least getting mentioned if they keep winning. Having one of the 19 or 20 win MAC teams knocking them off in the championship game would help. Losing to Creighton and Gonzaga are not bad losses. Youngstown State however is... but it was the first game of the season??? If they can muscle up to .500, and Akron doesn't drop one to a bottom dweller... They will be a midmajor name to speak of in a month or so.
If you click on Akron it has their odds to make they tourney via win total:
24 wins = 3.2%
25 wins = 18.2%
26 wins = 50.9%
27 wins = 80.5%
28 wins = 95.9%
29 wins = 99.6%
30+ wins = 100%
31 wins means Akron wins out and wins the tourney. With 1 loss in the title game it believes Akron still has a 100% chance to get in. If Akron wins 29 but loses in the semi's it believes Akron is basically in. They can MAYBE lose a regular season game or two and PROBABLY get in if they lose in the championship game at 27-6.
The win total and percentage is allowing you to lose games but still possibly still means you win the conference tourney. For Example Toledo has a 72% shot if they get to 23 wins because it's assuming that one loss the rest of the way means it won't come in the MAC tourney. At 24 wins we have a 100% shot because it means that Toledo won out and won the MAC. The 23 win total in no way indicates we have a 72% chance of an at large if that loss came in the MACC game.
I do like the different amounts of information teamrankings.com provides. But I'm not going to put any stock in those odds. Last year, IIR, they had Akron as having well over a 50 percent chance of getting an at-large bid entering the MAC tournament last year. I think even when they lost to Buffalo, it was still around 50 percent. Akron, as it turned out, wasn't even on the committee's radar.
That team was 26-8 and had an overall better resume than what a 26-8 team would have this year.
This isn't using any sort of analytical formula, but I would guess the odds would be more like this:
24 wins: 0%
25 wins: 0%
26 wins: 0%
27 wins: 10%
28 wins: 25%
29 wins: 50%
30 wins: 90%
In short, yes, Akron still has at-large hopes. But they would have to go 17-1 in MAC play and then lose in the MAC title game even to be a true toss-up. And would need to win out until the MAC title game to feel pretty confident. So, it's still extremely unlikely.
That's exactly how I see it.
(01-30-2017 10:07 AM)axeme Wrote: [ -> ]None ever has in the MAC Tourney era. Not sure about the days when there were a lot fewer games played. 2002 KSU was 17-1, then three wins in the MAC tourney, then the Elite run, finishing 30-6 and ranked 12th in the Coaches Poll.
Edit: 1957-58 Miami was 12-0, and 1949-50 UC was 10-0.
57-58 I think was a Wayne Embry team.
(01-30-2017 07:17 PM)T-Town Wrote: [ -> ]Every year there is lots of speculation and a good deal of optimism that this year is somehow different and this may be the year the MAC actually gets an at-large bid to the NCAA.....and every year (since 1999 was it?) it is always the same result. I guess hope does truly spring eternal. Sorry folks but it is NOT going to happen. In the eyes of the selection committee there are ALWAYS just way too many more deserving 16-14 type MAJOR teams with a ton of "good losses" to pick some mid-major just because it has 25+ wins.
The one difference is though that this discussion is about one team that has had a great year in MAC play and if they falter, could/would they still get in. In other years the discussion has been about a few teams that had good seasons and could more than one get in. If Akron wins the tourney then the at large talk is moot because nobody else has a chance. If Akron keeps it up, there will be a lot of bubble teams sweating Akron's performance in the MAC tourney hoping that they get the AQ.
One other thing that could really help Akron's chances is if CMU/EMU/Ohio all start winning most of their remaining games. All three of those teams could very well creep up into the high top 100 range which would help Akron's resume.
I disagree about the way we talk about this each season. For a few years the MAC was deep and had some OOC games worth mentioning. Rarely do we talk about it because we have a team getting votes and a gaudy win total of 18-3. No matter the case... I want to have a representative get a seeding of 12 or better. Being a 13, 14, or 15 is very hard to overcome in the first round.
Akron could be that team... I bet if they get out of the MAC regular season at 15-3 or better and win the conference? That will be a lock. The S curve will trend to 48 or higher. Now Linardi has them on 52 but procedural bumped to a 13 seed.
(01-31-2017 10:45 AM)eich41 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2017 07:17 PM)T-Town Wrote: [ -> ]Every year there is lots of speculation and a good deal of optimism that this year is somehow different and this may be the year the MAC actually gets an at-large bid to the NCAA.....and every year (since 1999 was it?) it is always the same result. I guess hope does truly spring eternal. Sorry folks but it is NOT going to happen. In the eyes of the selection committee there are ALWAYS just way too many more deserving 16-14 type MAJOR teams with a ton of "good losses" to pick some mid-major just because it has 25+ wins.
The one difference is though that this discussion is about one team that has had a great year in MAC play and if they falter, could/would they still get in. In other years the discussion has been about a few teams that had good seasons and could more than one get in. If Akron wins the tourney then the at large talk is moot because nobody else has a chance. If Akron keeps it up, there will be a lot of bubble teams sweating Akron's performance in the MAC tourney hoping that they get the AQ.
One other thing that could really help Akron's chances is if CMU/EMU/Ohio all start winning most of their remaining games. All three of those teams could very well creep up into the high top 100 range which would help Akron's resume.
You make a valid point; however if I were an Akron fan I would not like to leave my team's postseason fate dependent on the tender mercy of an NCAA selection committee, particularly as the Zips would have finished their otherwise great season with a lost to a lesser MAC team (or we wouldn't be having this discussion). The selection committee might well consider that as closing with a late season "bad loss". The selection committee has a number of factors that they consider in the selection process but the weighting of each factor appears to be purely subjective for each team's evaluation and that is an opening for bias.
Still a lot of games to be played and a lot of stars need to align but if it does happen and Akron (or any MAC MBB team) gets an at-large bid this year, I will come back and bump this thread with a public apology for being wrong about this.
IF, and that's a big if, Akron is still undefeated after their February 10th showdown I'll start giving their at-large possibility a deeper look. At said point they would be 12-0 in the MAC and have perhaps their 2 toughest road tests (@EMU & @Ohio) out of the way.
(01-30-2017 07:41 PM)Wadszip Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2017 03:07 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...onference/
This site does the predictions of seeds and bids per conference. Right now we sit at 1.3 bids.
Akron at 24-7 is believed to have a 25% shot at an at large. With 4 losses to give, I could see them at least getting mentioned if they keep winning. Having one of the 19 or 20 win MAC teams knocking them off in the championship game would help. Losing to Creighton and Gonzaga are not bad losses. Youngstown State however is... but it was the first game of the season??? If they can muscle up to .500, and Akron doesn't drop one to a bottom dweller... They will be a midmajor name to speak of in a month or so.
If you click on Akron it has their odds to make they tourney via win total:
24 wins = 3.2%
25 wins = 18.2%
26 wins = 50.9%
27 wins = 80.5%
28 wins = 95.9%
29 wins = 99.6%
30+ wins = 100%
31 wins means Akron wins out and wins the tourney. With 1 loss in the title game it believes Akron still has a 100% chance to get in. If Akron wins 29 but loses in the semi's it believes Akron is basically in. They can MAYBE lose a regular season game or two and PROBABLY get in if they lose in the championship game at 27-6.
The win total and percentage is allowing you to lose games but still possibly still means you win the conference tourney. For Example Toledo has a 72% shot if they get to 23 wins because it's assuming that one loss the rest of the way means it won't come in the MAC tourney. At 24 wins we have a 100% shot because it means that Toledo won out and won the MAC. The 23 win total in no way indicates we have a 72% chance of an at large if that loss came in the MACC game.
I do like the different amounts of information teamrankings.com provides. But I'm not going to put any stock in those odds. Last year, IIR, they had Akron as having well over a 50 percent chance of getting an at-large bid entering the MAC tournament last year. I think even when they lost to Buffalo, it was still around 50 percent. Akron, as it turned out, wasn't even on the committee's radar.
That team was 26-8 and had an overall better resume than what a 26-8 team would have this year.
This isn't using any sort of analytical formula, but I would guess the odds would be more like this:
24 wins: 0%
25 wins: 0%
26 wins: 0%
27 wins: 10%
28 wins: 25%
29 wins: 50%
30 wins: 90%
In short, yes, Akron still has at-large hopes. But they would have to go 17-1 in MAC play and then lose in the MAC title game even to be a true toss-up. And would need to win out until the MAC title game to feel pretty confident. So, it's still extremely unlikely.
Maybe the committee should look at teamrankings so they can blatantly ignore the MAC every year
(01-30-2017 07:41 PM)Wadszip Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2017 03:07 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...onference/
This site does the predictions of seeds and bids per conference. Right now we sit at 1.3 bids.
Akron at 24-7 is believed to have a 25% shot at an at large. With 4 losses to give, I could see them at least getting mentioned if they keep winning. Having one of the 19 or 20 win MAC teams knocking them off in the championship game would help. Losing to Creighton and Gonzaga are not bad losses. Youngstown State however is... but it was the first game of the season??? If they can muscle up to .500, and Akron doesn't drop one to a bottom dweller... They will be a midmajor name to speak of in a month or so.
If you click on Akron it has their odds to make they tourney via win total:
24 wins = 3.2%
25 wins = 18.2%
26 wins = 50.9%
27 wins = 80.5%
28 wins = 95.9%
29 wins = 99.6%
30+ wins = 100%
31 wins means Akron wins out and wins the tourney. With 1 loss in the title game it believes Akron still has a 100% chance to get in. If Akron wins 29 but loses in the semi's it believes Akron is basically in. They can MAYBE lose a regular season game or two and PROBABLY get in if they lose in the championship game at 27-6.
The win total and percentage is allowing you to lose games but still possibly still means you win the conference tourney. For Example Toledo has a 72% shot if they get to 23 wins because it's assuming that one loss the rest of the way means it won't come in the MAC tourney. At 24 wins we have a 100% shot because it means that Toledo won out and won the MAC. The 23 win total in no way indicates we have a 72% chance of an at large if that loss came in the MACC game.
I do like the different amounts of information teamrankings.com provides. But I'm not going to put any stock in those odds. Last year, IIR, they had Akron as having well over a 50 percent chance of getting an at-large bid entering the MAC tournament last year. I think even when they lost to Buffalo, it was still around 50 percent. Akron, as it turned out, wasn't even on the committee's radar.
That team was 26-8 and had an overall better resume than what a 26-8 team would have this year.
This isn't using any sort of analytical formula, but I would guess the odds would be more like this:
24 wins: 0%
25 wins: 0%
26 wins: 0%
27 wins: 10%
28 wins: 25%
29 wins: 50%
30 wins: 90%
In short, yes, Akron still has at-large hopes. But they would have to go 17-1 in MAC play and then lose in the MAC title game even to be a true toss-up. And would need to win out until the MAC title game to feel pretty confident. So, it's still extremely unlikely.
That site uses statistical analysis on history while also predicting the rest of the season. The site states that it believes Akron will only go 24-7... but if the rest of the predictions hold true and very fair... Its odds of making the tourney at 28-6 are 95.9%. That does not mean its odds of an At Large are as so. Its more so assuming that they went 15-3 in the league and won the MAC. Its At Large odds are probably closer to 50-50 at 28 wins... So 16-2 and a loss in the title game.
Which means in a pool of 8 teams with Oklahoma State, Michigan, Rhode Island, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, and Cal (8 bubble teams)... how would they fair?
For a snapshot Akron has a BPI of 75, SOR (strength of record) of 39, and RPI of 47. That would increase from now to then more than every team remaining BECAUSE they have an easier road and will continue to win games.
My prediction is they are last four OUT (Toss up) if they go 28-6 and lose in the title game. 29-5 and a loss in the title game is IN by 4 to 8 teams. So as far as losing games remaining for an AT-LARGE?
Don't go worse than 16-2 in the league, must lose in the finals, and don't lose to a 7 seed or worse.