Quote:First--upsets are not "normal". That's why they are upsets. Second--these were only "upsets" because of the "ranking".
When Boise "upset" Oklahoma -- Boise was Ranked Higher. Why does not that come to mind so easily for most? Because it was a G5. They weren't "supposed to". TCU was ranked higher than Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, for instance too. Point is, they lived Up to it in the BCS. They weren't proving the Voters wrong, is my point -- so you don't have "years and years".
We have *3* years. 2-1. The first two showed they were possibly ranked too low (which furthers your argument). But I also must say, Upsets between RANKED teams ARE normal, to an extent. Abnormal or rare does not mean <50%. There's upsets ALL the time throughout the season. As a side note, usually "upsets" are determined by Vegas. :)
Upsets happen a lot. #11 FSU beat #6 UM. #2 Clemson beat "unbeatable" #1 Alabama. #9 USC beat #5 PSU. Unranked Northwestern beat #23 Pitt! Unranked Wake Forrest beat #24 Temple!
Also, not just who-beats-who on ranking -- but also margin of victory. When people go "Ohhh, [this G5] got beat by 17pts by [this P5]," during the season, you can also point to that happening... #13 Louisville lost to #20 LSU by 20pts. #12 OK-State beat #10 Colorado, not by a tight score due to ranking (or Vegas) -- but by 30pts!! Unranked Miami-FL beat #16 West Virginia by 17pts! Baylor with no votes to be ranked Thumped Boise who had votes to be ranked and seen by all eyes as being better -- by 19pts!
So yes, upsets Happen. All. The. Time. That's just BOWL season I mentioned. 1 "week" worth of games, going by ranking.
Certainly by 3 NY6 G5 bowls, we don't have much to go on yet. All we know is that yeah, Top G5s compete when ranked lower, and can certainly Win like other teams ranked lower in other bowls.
Everyone knows the Top G5s are competitive. Well, not everyone. Fan bases look down too much, yes. And some analysts. But Vegas knows what's up (even I thought 8pt spread against Wisconsin seems small for WMU! It turned out to be an 8pt game thanks to a missed XP). And so do most analysts. Even the Committee.
You could say the Committee ranks too low -- and I'll agree to a certain extent. But the Committee rankings come out After the other ones, thankfully, so there's only so much they can be influenced by.
Here's what will squash the Top G5-AQ in a mere 8-team playoff: When the Top G5 is ranked #18-#24, which certainly will happen -- especially when coaches Leave (Houston, WMU just recently). They won't be playing #8-#14, like now in the NY6 (extends past 12 due to bowl-tie-ins). They'll be playing #1 (in an 8-team). Yeah, I said upsets happen and are normal. But not a ~#20 G5 taking out #1 Alabama. People will get upset, and understandably so, and it'll hurt the G5 image.
It's a fact that if they apply the same BCS/NY5 (10-team) thing for G5s to make it to the 8-team playoff, you don't have to be ranked as high compared to the teams in play (Top 12, to get in Top 8 vs 10). I think that Does take care of possible lower rankings for top G5s due to SoS and leaned assumptions. And in the very uncommon case a P5 Champ is ranked below #12 -- the G5 just has to match that to get an AQ.
Remember, it's the #8 team in the nation who's going to have a lot of complaints if that G5 is #20. You'd need Some sort of "earning" for it, IMO. Because G5 competition isn't the same as the P5, to win a conference. If they said Ranked #16 or higher for Top G5? I could live with that. But Always-Auto on an *8* team playoff? That's pretty ballsy when the Top G5 isn't ranked high at all... and could end up making the G5 being given "gimmies" when blown out by #1 seeds. At least if they were higher ranked, there'd be a better chance for a good game, or, possibly an upset.
I don't see the Committee in trouble if applying the BCS G5 qualifying rules to even a narrowed 8-team playoff -- UNLESS their rankings are dogging the Top G5 compared to the other major polls. Not just in 1 year, but seemingly as a trend. Then there's a case. But they have to be doing that first.
Quote:First, I don't expect to see an 8 team playoff any time soon. And I hope that I won't.
I do. 4 team playoffs aren't real playoffs. It's more a Play Off. They had 1 vs 2 to for Nat Champ, and then had a 3 vs 4 BCS bowl for ones who didn't quite make it. All they did was switch teams and said we'll give you another bowl to decide it (play it off). How can you NOT want a Real Playoff (8+ teams)?? :)
But actually I don't want 8-teams either. I want 12. A G5 would definitely qualify then. You'd just take the NY6 (12 teams), and have them in a 12-team playoff. Would be the best. No controversy over a G5 making it, and you'd have the Top 4 getting credit still too (a bye).
Quote:If I recall, any non-AQ school that finished ranked in the top six, and also ranked ahead of an AQ champion, could qualify. In fact, fairly recently both Boise State and TCU qualified in the same year.
I believe it was Top G5 Champ in the Top 12 would make it. I think Top 6 being an AQ meant that you couldn't be left out -- even if you didn't win your conference (P5s in practicality). So yeah, you could have 2 G5s that way, and taht's what happened.
But to be a G5 Conf Champ, I think Top 12 would make it... OR being ranked above a P5 Champ but STILL in the Top 16.