The path to the playoff for the nation's top one-loss teams
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...contenders
Path to the playoff: The most direct route for Louisville would be for Clemson to lose in the ACC championship game, because the selection committee would be more likely to put Louisville in the top four than it would a two-loss ACC champ from the league's weaker division. In order to join Clemson in the top four, it would have to be deemed "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country.
Statistically speaking: ESPN's FPI pegs Louisville's win probability for each remaining game at 80 percent or more, and favors the Cards on a neutral field against every team in the country except Alabama and Michigan. Louisville leads the nation in offensive efficiency, and Lamar Jackson leads the FBS in Total QBR.
Reason for skepticism: Strength of schedule and committee protocol. Louisville has defeated only two teams with records above .500 (5-2 Florida State, 4-3 NC State) and only one ranked opponent (FSU). In addition to strength of schedule, the committee is also directed to use conference championships won and head-to-head results as tiebreakers when evaluating comparable teams. Louisville doesn't stack up, which means it has to find other ways to impress the committee.
Can the ACC get two teams in? Yes. The best-case scenario here would be for Clemson to go undefeated, and to have at least another Power 5 conference champion stumble -- most likely Washington, Baylor or West Virginia. Then Louisville would be compared against other one-loss teams instead of trying to unseat an undefeated league champ.
