In regards to Air Force and BYU, it is highly unlikely that either team would join the American. BYU makes between $5 million and $6 million a year which far exceeds the value of the American's contract. Furthermore, BYU's self worth, arrogance, perceived value or whatever it is, is tied up in Utah being in the P12, and BYU not wanting to be seen as inferior to their rival. Joining a G5 conference would mean BYU acknowledging they are at a lower level than Utah. It will not happen.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily...Games.aspx
In regards to Air Force, the AFA has already stated that they view the Front Range schools as their rivals, and are loyal to the MW. As you all know, AFA said no the Big East the first time around due to these reasons.
http://www.denverpost.com/2011/12/07/air...tain-west/
Finally, the American's TV contract is not significantly more than the MW. The American's contract is worth about $2 to $2.5 million a year while the MW is worth about $1.6 million and each team can make more in the bonus structure. If a team gets on TV, the MW contract is better than the AAC's for now.
http://www.mwcconnection.com/mountain-we...er-schools
In regards to the Access Bowl, we only have a sample set of 2 right now. Thus, there is not enough data to determine which conference will get the Bowl Game every year. Hell, it is looking more and more likely that Western Michigan will get the NYD Bowl this year.
On a personal note, as an SDSU fan, I would support joining the American if BYU, Boise State, and UNLV came with us, and we were assured upwards of $5 million a year. But there is no evidence to support either of those things happening.