Sagarin is a complete joke.

The best example is that 3-2 South Alabama is rated 63 spots lower than 2-2 Mississippi State. Did this guy not know that USA beat MSU in Starkville?

Or 3-2 Cal rated lower than the 2-2 Texas team the Bears beat but those Longhorns being rated lower than 2-3 Notre Dame. Huh?

And don't even get me started that Houston is rated lower than Oklahoma.

(10-05-2016 08:45 PM)mdastro Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 05:21 PM)isiahglover1 Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 04:30 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Here is what Houston better pray for.

1. That we USC play like we did against Arizona State and win out beating Washington in the process. Knocking a Pac-12 team out of the playoff.

2. That Oklahoma wins the Big 12 which would also knock a Big 12 team out the playoff.

3. That Alabama goes undefeated giving every other SEC team two losses.

4. Louisville doesn't lose to anyone else besides Houston.

I still think it's a very slim chance because if Michigan went 11-1 you can't really justify Houston over them.

I have seen a lot of people throw out the idea that 2 teams from the same conference will get in the playoff.

Why didn't the committee put in OSU last year?

They were supposedly the most talented team of all time and only had 1 loss by 3 points to the eventual Big10 champ.

If not OSU, why UM, or UL, or anyone?

The committee values conference championships more than you think.

Power 5 conference champion trumps G5 kiddie conference champion

(10-05-2016 07:27 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 12:59 PM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-03-2016 08:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 03:08 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 02:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Well, in truth I contradicted myself. Above, is said the door "closed". Earlier in the post, or a follow-up, I said it was 'very unlikely' Houston could get in over the SEC, B1G, or ACC champ. So the door isn't 100% closed. It is the slightest bit ajar, but it will take a lot.

E.g., in your example, if Miami or UNC has only one loss and beats Clemson, they will get in over Houston.

IMO, Houston will not beat out even a one-loss B1G, SEC, or ACC champ. They need those winners to have two or more losses.

Not necessarily: a one loss Alabama, Clemson, FSU, Ohio State and Michigan State, I agree with you; however, with a one loss Iowa, UNC, Duke, or even Miami, an undefeated Houston gets the nod, because undefeated is undefeated and they beat Oklahoma and Louisville.

I see your point, but ... Remember, if UL loses to Houston, they won't be #5 anymore. They, like OK will have at least two losses. And the rest of Houston's schedule is soft by P5 standards.

So I just don't think that Houston can get in over a one-loss champ from any of those three conferences, no matter who it is. E.g., remember, for an Iowa to win the B1G with one loss, they are going to have to beat Wisconsin and Michigan and Nebraska from this point forward, plus likely Ohio State in the CCG. Do you really think the committee is going to put a G5 champ in over a B1G team with that resume? I do not.

Take away the 2 heavyweights and everyone's schedule looks bad. Take away FSU and Louisville and Clemson's schedule is soft.

But there are different orders of soft. E.g., according to Sagarin, right now Houston has played the #101 schedule. That includes a game with Oklahoma.

Clemson's SOS right now is #11.

As good as we like to think the AAC is, it's still considerably weaker than even the worst P5 conference, and that will hurt Houston's SOS.

And come CCG time, Houston will likely be playing someone like ... USF. As much as I love USF, we're an order of magnitude different than playing, say, Ohio State.

Ok, so if someone's in the running and beats Ohio State in a CCG they should pass Houston. That's fine. That isn't the majority of what really is at issue here though IMO.

Clemson is going to play someone like UNC or Pitt in their CCG. Those teams are not better than USF. If Clemson loses to FSU, their only good win will be a UL win that Houston also has. Houston has an Oklahoma win and Clemson has a loss.

Washington/Stanford would currently be playing Colorado. Not better than USF.

The SEC champ will get a good win in the SECCG, but that doesn't matter to me because the SEC champ is getting in.

Besides that, I believe a lot of the teams HOU will be up against will not even be playing in the CCG. Can they beat out an 11-1 Stanford, Michigan, Baylor, etc?

(10-05-2016 07:47 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 07:27 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 12:59 PM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-03-2016 08:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 03:08 PM)acc4life Wrote:  Not necessarily: a one loss Alabama, Clemson, FSU, Ohio State and Michigan State, I agree with you; however, with a one loss Iowa, UNC, Duke, or even Miami, an undefeated Houston gets the nod, because undefeated is undefeated and they beat Oklahoma and Louisville.

I see your point, but ... Remember, if UL loses to Houston, they won't be #5 anymore. They, like OK will have at least two losses. And the rest of Houston's schedule is soft by P5 standards.

So I just don't think that Houston can get in over a one-loss champ from any of those three conferences, no matter who it is. E.g., remember, for an Iowa to win the B1G with one loss, they are going to have to beat Wisconsin and Michigan and Nebraska from this point forward, plus likely Ohio State in the CCG. Do you really think the committee is going to put a G5 champ in over a B1G team with that resume? I do not.

Take away the 2 heavyweights and everyone's schedule looks bad. Take away FSU and Louisville and Clemson's schedule is soft.

But there are different orders of soft. E.g., according to Sagarin, right now Houston has played the #101 schedule. That includes a game with Oklahoma.

Clemson's SOS right now is #11.

As good as we like to think the AAC is, it's still considerably weaker than even the worst P5 conference, and that will hurt Houston's SOS.

And come CCG time, Houston will likely be playing someone like ... USF. As much as I love USF, we're an order of magnitude different than playing, say, Ohio State.

Sagarin is a joke and an outlier. Massey Composite has our SOS at #54.

Like it or not, Sagarin is the most highly respected computer. That said, my general point stands: When Houston starts playing AAC games every week, as they are for the next month and a half, your SOS will suffer as a result.

(10-06-2016 06:58 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 07:27 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 12:59 PM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-03-2016 08:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 03:08 PM)acc4life Wrote:  Not necessarily: a one loss Alabama, Clemson, FSU, Ohio State and Michigan State, I agree with you; however, with a one loss Iowa, UNC, Duke, or even Miami, an undefeated Houston gets the nod, because undefeated is undefeated and they beat Oklahoma and Louisville.

I see your point, but ... Remember, if UL loses to Houston, they won't be #5 anymore. They, like OK will have at least two losses. And the rest of Houston's schedule is soft by P5 standards.

So I just don't think that Houston can get in over a one-loss champ from any of those three conferences, no matter who it is. E.g., remember, for an Iowa to win the B1G with one loss, they are going to have to beat Wisconsin and Michigan and Nebraska from this point forward, plus likely Ohio State in the CCG. Do you really think the committee is going to put a G5 champ in over a B1G team with that resume? I do not.

Take away the 2 heavyweights and everyone's schedule looks bad. Take away FSU and Louisville and Clemson's schedule is soft.

But there are different orders of soft. E.g., according to Sagarin, right now Houston has played the #101 schedule. That includes a game with Oklahoma.

Clemson's SOS right now is #11.

As good as we like to think the AAC is, it's still considerably weaker than even the worst P5 conference, and that will hurt Houston's SOS.

And come CCG time, Houston will likely be playing someone like ... USF. As much as I love USF, we're an order of magnitude different than playing, say, Ohio State.

Ok, so if someone's in the running and beats Ohio State in a CCG they should pass Houston. That's fine. That isn't the majority of what really is at issue here though IMO.

Clemson is going to play someone like UNC or Pitt in their CCG. Those teams are not better than USF. If Clemson loses to FSU, their only good win will be a UL win that Houston also has. Houston has an Oklahoma win and Clemson has a loss.

Washington/Stanford would currently be playing Colorado. Not better than USF.

The SEC champ will get a good win in the SECCG, but that doesn't matter to me because the SEC champ is getting in.

Besides that, I believe a lot of the teams HOU will be up against will not even be playing in the CCG. Can they beat out an 11-1 Stanford, Michigan, Baylor, etc?

Houston has to beat out two P5 champs to make the playoffs. I think we all agree that the B1G and SEC champs are in, period, they always are. The ACC champ too, because even if a one-loss UNC team upsets an unbeaten Clemson in the CCG, they will get in, too. The ACC is getting lots of respect this year, their champ is almost surely in.

So you have to get past the Big 12 and PAC champs. The Big 12 is very doable, as the only Big 12 champ that would get in over an unbeaten Houston is an unbeaten one. So you just have to hope WVU and Baylor each lose a game from here on out, and since neither of those teams looks strong, and they play each other so one will lose that game, that is extremely likely.

In the PAC, the threat is Washington. Again, Houston will not get in over an unbeaten PAC champ Washington, but IMO they would get in over any other PAC champ that has a loss. So you have to hope for Washington to lose.

So that's the ticket: Every week, just root for WVU, Baylor, and Washington to lose. If they do, and Houston runs the table, Houston will likely get in.

What doesn't make sense, however, are scenarios that put Houston in over one-loss B1G or SEC or ACC champs or unbeaten PAC or Big 12 champs. None of that is happening, it's all pure fantasy. If Baylor, WVU or Washington are unbeaten, they all get in over Houston. No G5 school, no matter what their ranking in the polls, will ever make the playoffs over an unbeaten P5 champ.

(10-05-2016 02:26 PM)ShockerBob Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 01:53 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  The game between Houston and Louisville will still be big, because both teams will be playing for bowl placement, pride and bragging rights!

You making the trek?

No, I wish I could, but family obligations will interfere this time. Maybe next time. It is going tobe a huge game.

(10-06-2016 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  No G5 school, no matter what their ranking in the polls, will ever make the playoffs over an unbeaten P5 champ.

You should have just ended at the word playoffs. SOS is everything in the eyes of the committee, and a G5 schedule will never pass muster.

I wish you guys would get dumped in FCS so at least you can play for something.

(10-06-2016 12:10 PM)mdastro Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  No G5 school, no matter what their ranking in the polls, will ever make the playoffs over an unbeaten P5 champ.

You should have just ended at the word playoffs. SOS is everything in the eyes of the committee, and a G5 schedule will never pass muster.

I wish you guys would get dumped in FCS so at least you can play for something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5obLmJ4O9E

(10-06-2016 08:35 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 02:26 PM)ShockerBob Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 01:53 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  The game between Houston and Louisville will still be big, because both teams will be playing for bowl placement, pride and bragging rights!

You making the trek?

No, I wish I could, but family obligations will interfere this time. Maybe next time. It is going tobe a huge game.

I hope we get you guys on the schedule again. Last year's game went down to the wire, and I'm thinking it'll be the same this year. What a great matchup!

(10-06-2016 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 06:58 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 07:27 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-05-2016 12:59 PM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-03-2016 08:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I see your point, but ... Remember, if UL loses to Houston, they won't be #5 anymore. They, like OK will have at least two losses. And the rest of Houston's schedule is soft by P5 standards.

So I just don't think that Houston can get in over a one-loss champ from any of those three conferences, no matter who it is. E.g., remember, for an Iowa to win the B1G with one loss, they are going to have to beat Wisconsin and Michigan and Nebraska from this point forward, plus likely Ohio State in the CCG. Do you really think the committee is going to put a G5 champ in over a B1G team with that resume? I do not.

Take away the 2 heavyweights and everyone's schedule looks bad. Take away FSU and Louisville and Clemson's schedule is soft.

But there are different orders of soft. E.g., according to Sagarin, right now Houston has played the #101 schedule. That includes a game with Oklahoma.

Clemson's SOS right now is #11.

As good as we like to think the AAC is, it's still considerably weaker than even the worst P5 conference, and that will hurt Houston's SOS.

And come CCG time, Houston will likely be playing someone like ... USF. As much as I love USF, we're an order of magnitude different than playing, say, Ohio State.

Ok, so if someone's in the running and beats Ohio State in a CCG they should pass Houston. That's fine. That isn't the majority of what really is at issue here though IMO.

Clemson is going to play someone like UNC or Pitt in their CCG. Those teams are not better than USF. If Clemson loses to FSU, their only good win will be a UL win that Houston also has. Houston has an Oklahoma win and Clemson has a loss.

Washington/Stanford would currently be playing Colorado. Not better than USF.

The SEC champ will get a good win in the SECCG, but that doesn't matter to me because the SEC champ is getting in.

Besides that, I believe a lot of the teams HOU will be up against will not even be playing in the CCG. Can they beat out an 11-1 Stanford, Michigan, Baylor, etc?

Houston has to beat out two P5 champs to make the playoffs. I think we all agree that the B1G and SEC champs are in, period, they always are. The ACC champ too, because even if a one-loss UNC team upsets an unbeaten Clemson in the CCG, they will get in, too. The ACC is getting lots of respect this year, their champ is almost surely in.

So you have to get past the Big 12 and PAC champs. The Big 12 is very doable, as the only Big 12 champ that would get in over an unbeaten Houston is an unbeaten one. So you just have to hope WVU and Baylor each lose a game from here on out, and since neither of those teams looks strong, and they play each other so one will lose that game, that is extremely likely.

In the PAC, the threat is Washington. Again, Houston will not get in over an unbeaten PAC champ Washington, but IMO they would get in over any other PAC champ that has a loss. So you have to hope for Washington to lose.

So that's the ticket: Every week, just root for WVU, Baylor, and Washington to lose. If they do, and Houston runs the table, Houston will likely get in.

What doesn't make sense, however, are scenarios that put Houston in over one-loss B1G or SEC or ACC champs or unbeaten PAC or Big 12 champs. None of that is happening, it's all pure fantasy. If Baylor, WVU or Washington are unbeaten, they all get in over Houston. No G5 school, no matter what their ranking in the polls, will ever make the playoffs over an unbeaten P5 champ.

That's fine. I don't disagree with your conclusion. I find it extremely unlikely that adding up the undefeated P5 champs + 1 loss ACC champs +1 loss B10 champs + 1 loss SEC champs will = 4 or more.

So let's say I agree with your list of 3, because I basically do. What are the odds of any of Baylor, WV, Wash running the table the rest of the way? 5%?

(10-06-2016 12:20 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 12:10 PM)mdastro Wrote:  

(10-06-2016 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  No G5 school, no matter what their ranking in the polls, will ever make the playoffs over an unbeaten P5 champ.

You should have just ended at the word playoffs. SOS is everything in the eyes of the committee, and a G5 schedule will never pass muster.

I wish you guys would get dumped in FCS so at least you can play for something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5obLmJ4O9E

I wish someone had taught you to be a better troll. You suck.