(10-02-2016 12:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

You're trying to come up with these "closed cases" way too early. Who's to say that a 12-0 Clemson doesn't lose to Miami or UNC in the ACC Championship? Yeah, they would be the favorite in such a game, but even at the point where they're 12-0, there would still be a ~40% chance of them missing the playoffs.

He has a point, though and unless your aforementioned improbable variables come into play, he is right.

(10-02-2016 12:52 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

You're trying to come up with these "closed cases" way too early. Who's to say that a 12-0 Clemson doesn't lose to Miami or UNC in the ACC Championship? Yeah, they would be the favorite in such a game, but even at the point where they're 12-0, there would still be a ~40% chance of them missing the playoffs.

He has a point, though and unless your aforementioned improbable variables come into play, he is right.

The case (door) isn't closed. He doesn't have a point and he couldn't be more wrong.

(10-02-2016 12:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:52 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

You're trying to come up with these "closed cases" way too early. Who's to say that a 12-0 Clemson doesn't lose to Miami or UNC in the ACC Championship? Yeah, they would be the favorite in such a game, but even at the point where they're 12-0, there would still be a ~40% chance of them missing the playoffs.

He has a point, though and unless your aforementioned improbable variables come into play, he is right.

The case (door) isn't closed. He doesn't have a point and he couldn't be more wrong.

I'm not saying Houston is not getting in, but everyone knows the Big 10, SEC and ACC receive favoritism (over the Big 12 and the Pac 12), so he kind of does.

(10-02-2016 12:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 11:20 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 02:01 AM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 01:40 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Doesn't matter if they are or aren't. I want Louisville ranked as high as possible.

I really think there was minimal damage by Louisville losing in that way tonight.

You're probably right.

He's wrong, the damage was considerable even though UL won't drop far in the polls. Houston really needed to have the scalp of an otherwise unbeaten P5 champ. They can't have that now. So at the end of the year, when Houston is unbeaten, and says "we beat Oklahoma!" Others will say "so did Ohio State". And when they say "we beat Louisville!" Others will say "so did Clemson".

It really hurt also because Louisville will almost surely not be the ACC champ, so they won't have the scalp of that P5 champ either. Yes, Oklahoma might win the Big 12, but Oklahoma isn't making the playoffs anyway.

Houston's next best hope now is that someone knocks off Washington in the PAC. That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

The path is pretty simple. Louisville and Oklahoma each win their conference CCG's. With UH beating both. UH would have a head to head win over 2 P5 champs. That's the way into the playoff.

First, the Big 12 doesn't have a CCG this year. Of course, it would be great for Houston if Oklahoma wins the Big 12 anyway, because you would then get in over them.

Second, since Louisville is in the same division as Clemson, they would need Clemson to lose twice in the ACC to make the ACC title game. Good luck with that.

It seems very unlikely that Houston can get in over the SEC, B1G, or ACC champs. So that leaves one slot for the Big 12, PAC, and Houston. Houston is in great position to beat out the Big 12 champ, because the Big 12 champ is likely to have two losses, whether that champ is Oklahoma or anyone else.

But the PAC is a problem, specifically Washington. If Washington is unbeaten, no way Houston makes it in over them. No matter what Houston does, no G5 will ever get in over an undefeated P5 champ. So you need Washington to lose.

Your correct--no Big12 CCG. I worded that poorly. My point was simply if Louisville and Oklahoma win their respective conferences, it would open a clear path for UH to the playoff. Sure its unikely---but the presence of a G5 in the playoff was always very unlikely. This year simply offers an unusual opportunity. Its extremely rare for a G5 to play 2 P5 champs in a season.

(10-02-2016 12:47 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But the PAC is a problem, specifically Washington. If Washington is unbeaten, no way Houston makes it in over them. So you need Washington to lose.

I see your logic in the P5 bias and I know the CFP has its own formula, but do you think they would choose Washington over Houston no matter what, even if Houston is ranked higher than Washington in the regular polls? I don't think Condaleeza would vote for such a screw over...smh

Yes. I am 100% certain that if a CFP spot comes down to an unbeaten Houston vs an unbeaten PAC champ Washington, Washington will get the playoff spot. No ifs ands or buts about it.

No unbeaten P5 champ will ever miss the playoffs, unless there are four other unbeaten P5 champs. Call it bias or whatever, it is what it is.

(10-02-2016 12:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

You're trying to come up with these "closed cases" way too early. Who's to say that a 12-0 Clemson doesn't lose to Miami or UNC in the ACC Championship? Yeah, they would be the favorite in such a game, but even at the point where they're 12-0, there would still be a ~40% chance of them missing the playoffs.

Well, in truth I contradicted myself. Above, is said the door "closed". Earlier in the post, or a follow-up, I said it was 'very unlikely' Houston could get in over the SEC, B1G, or ACC champ. So the door isn't 100% closed. It is the slightest bit ajar, but it will take a lot.

E.g., in your example, if Miami or UNC has only one loss and beats Clemson, they will get in over Houston.

IMO, Houston will not beat out even a one-loss B1G, SEC, or ACC champ. They need those winners to have two or more losses.

(10-02-2016 02:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:47 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But the PAC is a problem, specifically Washington. If Washington is unbeaten, no way Houston makes it in over them. So you need Washington to lose.

I see your logic in the P5 bias and I know the CFP has its own formula, but do you think they would choose Washington over Houston no matter what, even if Houston is ranked higher than Washington in the regular polls? I don't think Condaleeza would vote for such a screw over...smh

Yes. I am 100% certain that if a CFP spot comes down to an unbeaten Houston vs an unbeaten PAC champ Washington, Washington will get the playoff spot. No ifs ands or buts about it.

No unbeaten P5 champ will ever miss the playoffs, unless there are four other unbeaten P5 champs. Call it bias or whatever, it is what it is.

How can you be 100% certain, are you on the playoff committee or know someone who is?

(10-02-2016 02:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

You're trying to come up with these "closed cases" way too early. Who's to say that a 12-0 Clemson doesn't lose to Miami or UNC in the ACC Championship? Yeah, they would be the favorite in such a game, but even at the point where they're 12-0, there would still be a ~40% chance of them missing the playoffs.

Well, in truth I contradicted myself. Above, is said the door "closed". Earlier in the post, or a follow-up, I said it was 'very unlikely' Houston could get in over the SEC, B1G, or ACC champ. So the door isn't 100% closed. It is the slightest bit ajar, but it will take a lot.

E.g., in your example, if Miami or UNC has only one loss and beats Clemson, they will get in over Houston.

IMO, Houston will not beat out even a one-loss B1G, SEC, or ACC champ. They need those winners to have two or more losses.

Again, I'm baffled by the assumptions. Why are you assuming that these FAR from elite teams can only show up to their conference championships with one loss? Miami for example is no better than 55% to win any of their games over the next MONTH.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4719&s=286577

Can Miami or UNC beat Clemson on any given day? Yes. Is it likely that either are going to run the table? Hell no.

(10-02-2016 02:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

You're trying to come up with these "closed cases" way too early. Who's to say that a 12-0 Clemson doesn't lose to Miami or UNC in the ACC Championship? Yeah, they would be the favorite in such a game, but even at the point where they're 12-0, there would still be a ~40% chance of them missing the playoffs.

Well, in truth I contradicted myself. Above, is said the door "closed". Earlier in the post, or a follow-up, I said it was 'very unlikely' Houston could get in over the SEC, B1G, or ACC champ. So the door isn't 100% closed. It is the slightest bit ajar, but it will take a lot.

E.g., in your example, if Miami or UNC has only one loss and beats Clemson, they will get in over Houston.

IMO, Houston will not beat out even a one-loss B1G, SEC, or ACC champ. They need those winners to have two or more losses.

Not necessarily: a one loss Alabama, Clemson, FSU, Ohio State and Michigan State, I agree with you; however, with a one loss Iowa, UNC, Duke, or even Miami, an undefeated Houston gets the nod, because undefeated is undefeated and they beat Oklahoma and Louisville.

Houston will have its hands full with Louisville and South Florida.

(10-02-2016 02:51 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 02:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:47 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But the PAC is a problem, specifically Washington. If Washington is unbeaten, no way Houston makes it in over them. So you need Washington to lose.

I see your logic in the P5 bias and I know the CFP has its own formula, but do you think they would choose Washington over Houston no matter what, even if Houston is ranked higher than Washington in the regular polls? I don't think Condaleeza would vote for such a screw over...smh

Yes. I am 100% certain that if a CFP spot comes down to an unbeaten Houston vs an unbeaten PAC champ Washington, Washington will get the playoff spot. No ifs ands or buts about it.

No unbeaten P5 champ will ever miss the playoffs, unless there are four other unbeaten P5 champs. Call it bias or whatever, it is what it is.

How can you be 100% certain, are you on the playoff committee or know someone who is?

Now you're just being obtuse.

(10-02-2016 02:58 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 02:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

You're trying to come up with these "closed cases" way too early. Who's to say that a 12-0 Clemson doesn't lose to Miami or UNC in the ACC Championship? Yeah, they would be the favorite in such a game, but even at the point where they're 12-0, there would still be a ~40% chance of them missing the playoffs.

Well, in truth I contradicted myself. Above, is said the door "closed". Earlier in the post, or a follow-up, I said it was 'very unlikely' Houston could get in over the SEC, B1G, or ACC champ. So the door isn't 100% closed. It is the slightest bit ajar, but it will take a lot.

E.g., in your example, if Miami or UNC has only one loss and beats Clemson, they will get in over Houston.

IMO, Houston will not beat out even a one-loss B1G, SEC, or ACC champ. They need those winners to have two or more losses.

Again, I'm baffled by the assumptions. Why are you assuming that these FAR from elite teams can only show up to their conference championships with one loss? Miami for example is no better than 55% to win any of their games over the next MONTH.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4719&s=286577

Can Miami or UNC beat Clemson on any given day? Yes. Is it likely that either are going to run the table? Hell no.

What assumption? I said *if* Miami or UNC has one loss.

Look, I'll stipulate: If a 4-loss UNC team upsets Clemson in the ACC title game, Houston will beat out UNC for a playoff spot. Wake me up when that happens.

(10-02-2016 05:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 02:58 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 02:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:48 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 08:26 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  That may happen, but an important door - getting in over the ACC champ - closed yesterday.

You're trying to come up with these "closed cases" way too early. Who's to say that a 12-0 Clemson doesn't lose to Miami or UNC in the ACC Championship? Yeah, they would be the favorite in such a game, but even at the point where they're 12-0, there would still be a ~40% chance of them missing the playoffs.

Well, in truth I contradicted myself. Above, is said the door "closed". Earlier in the post, or a follow-up, I said it was 'very unlikely' Houston could get in over the SEC, B1G, or ACC champ. So the door isn't 100% closed. It is the slightest bit ajar, but it will take a lot.

E.g., in your example, if Miami or UNC has only one loss and beats Clemson, they will get in over Houston.

IMO, Houston will not beat out even a one-loss B1G, SEC, or ACC champ. They need those winners to have two or more losses.

Again, I'm baffled by the assumptions. Why are you assuming that these FAR from elite teams can only show up to their conference championships with one loss? Miami for example is no better than 55% to win any of their games over the next MONTH.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4719&s=286577

Can Miami or UNC beat Clemson on any given day? Yes. Is it likely that either are going to run the table? Hell no.

What assumption? I said *if* Miami or UNC has one loss.

Look, I'll stipulate: If a 4-loss UNC team upsets Clemson in the ACC title game, Houston will beat out UNC for a playoff spot. Wake me up when that happens.

The fact that you resort to a straw man shows the weakness of your original assumption (the door closed last night on us getting in over the ACC Champ).

The truth is, the opponents of Clemson and Michigan/tOSU (likely UNC or Miami and Wisconsin) would at least have a puncher's chance in their respective title games, and would not (in all likelihood) jump UH in the event that they won. It wouldn't take a 4-loss team, but merely a 2-loss. Wisconsin will have at least 2 losses. UNC will have at least 2 losses. Miami again, is no higher than 55% to win any specific game over the next month, so they will also likely have at least 2 losses.

Same goes for the Pac 12. First, I doubt UW even gets to their title game unscathed. They seem like the team that could get up for their Super Bowl at home, but will lay an egg somewhere on the road. It could happen as soon as next week in Autzen. Oregon isn't their normal self, but that's a very difficult place to play. In the off chance that UW makes it to Pac 12 title game at 12-0, if the Pac 12 South champ (Colorado, Arizona State, or Utah) won, they also wouldn't jump UH.

I'm not saying all of this will happen or is likely to happen, but again, YOU were the one that said the door slammed shut last night, and are now going to ridiculous measures (4-loss UNC) to try to walk it back.

(10-02-2016 06:07 PM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm not saying all of this will happen or is likely to happen, but again, YOU were the one that said the door slammed shut last night, and are now going to ridiculous measures (4-loss UNC) to try to walk it back.

What is ridiculous? I think it obvious that if say a 8-4 UNC team wins the ACC title than of course an unbeaten Houston would get in over them. Did you really think my "door closed" comment applied to that situation, when elsewhere I've emphasized that Houston only loses out to a zero loss or one loss ACC champ?

Is that why you obtusely keep hammering away at the "door closed" comment and keep accusing me of speaking in absolutes? Because you have nothing more to say?

And really, my comment is no more ridiculous than you saying (as you did in the other thread) that your discussion of Houston making the playoffs is predicated on Houston going unbeaten. Of course they are, just as my "no way Houston gets in over the ACC champ" comment obviously only applies if the ACC champ is a credible champ, meaning unbeaten or just a loss.

So please, don't try to accuse others of making absurd assumptions. We're all making assumptions about how things play out.

(10-02-2016 04:03 PM)rosewater Wrote:  Houston will have its hands full with Louisville and South Florida.

Absolutely.

I think we can all agree that it would have been better for UH is UL had won.

(10-02-2016 08:22 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 01:26 AM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 01:17 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  Sealed the deal? Too many variables, but UW in the PAC with the win over Stanford is changing the landscape as far as Houston getting past four P5 schools for the CFP.

Washington isn't going to leapfrog Houston with that win.

If Washington runs the table, they will make the playoffs over Houston. Houston has zero chance of getting in over an unbeaten P5 champ.

At a very minimum, Houston must hope that there are not 4 unbeaten P5 champs.

The Big 12 is pretty much out of the playoff picture, and while it's possible the SEC, Big , ACC and PAC will have an unbeaten champion, I think it's a long shot at best. UW is unlikely to win out in the PAC, especially on the road. Also, OSU or UM will have at least 1 loss before BTCG. IMO most likely scenario is Clem and/or Bama running the table. I really like the chances of an unbeaten UH if only 2 P5 conf champs run the gauntlet unbeaten.

TX

An undefeated Houston will absolutely be in over a one loss so called p5 team. Debating over it is so spinning wheels. LOL

Houston is in

I think Houston is in if they go undefeated.

(10-02-2016 05:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 02:51 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 02:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:47 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(10-02-2016 12:32 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But the PAC is a problem, specifically Washington. If Washington is unbeaten, no way Houston makes it in over them. So you need Washington to lose.

I see your logic in the P5 bias and I know the CFP has its own formula, but do you think they would choose Washington over Houston no matter what, even if Houston is ranked higher than Washington in the regular polls? I don't think Condaleeza would vote for such a screw over...smh

Yes. I am 100% certain that if a CFP spot comes down to an unbeaten Houston vs an unbeaten PAC champ Washington, Washington will get the playoff spot. No ifs ands or buts about it.

No unbeaten P5 champ will ever miss the playoffs, unless there are four other unbeaten P5 champs. Call it bias or whatever, it is what it is.

How can you be 100% certain, are you on the playoff committee or know someone who is?

Now you're just being obtuse.

This isn't the Shawshank Redemption movie thread; this is the H Town Takeover crashing the CFP thread.

(10-02-2016 09:52 PM)fanhood Wrote:  I think Houston is in if they go undefeated.

The committee isn't going to consider them. Not with undefeateds in four P5s.