USM is 3-1 with wins against Kentucky, Savannah State and UTEP. Their sole loss is to Troy.

Massey rates USM at 76 (compared to 126 for Rice)
Sagarin has them at 68.

Seems that USM is a decent team thus far, nothing special. They beat UTEP handily, although UTEP got murdered spectacularly by Army (Army lost of Buffalo, so that takes a little away from the expectation of how good they are).

USM is inherently beatable. Just not by this iteration of Rice.

USM 56 - Rice 17

Anyone going?

USM will play winner of MTSU/WKU game for C-USA championship.

Amazing how much they have improved
2012 - 0-12
2013 - 1-11
2014 - 3-9
2015- 9- 5
2016- about to be 4-1

They have shown that they can bring in new coach (Hopson) and still win with Monken's recruits. Am excited to see how they play against LSU in a couple weeks.

I expect Rice to play better than most here do. I genuinely think the players are pissed off, want to save the season, will play even harder than normal and as a result, could keep it closer than the experts think. A few turnovers and it could even be a competitive game in the 4Q. Senior leadership this year > last year. Also, USM may be a bit vulnerable up-the-gut and could see Rice run the ball with some success and eat clock.

However, the structural problem in DB era will prevail. Rice plays decent against teams without proven QB's and plays poorly against teams that have good QB's. Mullens picked-us apart last year and has his entire OL back this year. That will be the difference. We won't be able to stop them when we need a stop.

Bigger picture, sad state of affairs hoping for a competitive game in the 4Q against a C-USA team is now considered beating expectations.

(09-29-2016 08:34 AM)owl40 Wrote:  USM will play winner of MTSU/WKU game for C-USA championship.

Amazing how much they have improved
2012 - 0-12
2013 - 1-11
2014 - 3-9
2015- 9- 5
2016- about to be 4-1

They have shown that they can bring in new coach (Hopson) and still win with Monken's recruits. Am excited to see how they play against LSU in a couple weeks.

I expect Rice to play better than most here do. I genuinely think the players are pissed off, want to save the season, will play even harder than normal and as a result, could keep it closer than the experts think. A few turnovers and it could even be a competitive game in the 4Q. Senior leadership this year > last year. Also, USM may be a bit vulnerable up-the-gut and could see Rice run the ball with some success and eat clock.

However, the structural problem in DB era will prevail. Rice plays decent against teams without proven QB's and plays poorly against teams that have good QB's. Mullens picked-us apart last year and has his entire OL back this year. That will be the difference. We won't be able to stop them when we need a stop.

Bigger picture, sad state of affairs hoping for a competitive game in the 4Q against a C-USA team is now considered beating expectations.

No quarrel with what you say. Just want to point out the 0-12 year was also under a new coach. Coaches are like a box of chocolates. I hope we get a good one this year.

(09-29-2016 08:44 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-29-2016 08:34 AM)owl40 Wrote:  USM will play winner of MTSU/WKU game for C-USA championship.

Amazing how much they have improved
2012 - 0-12
2013 - 1-11
2014 - 3-9
2015- 9- 5
2016- about to be 4-1

They have shown that they can bring in new coach (Hopson) and still win with Monken's recruits. Am excited to see how they play against LSU in a couple weeks.

I expect Rice to play better than most here do. I genuinely think the players are pissed off, want to save the season, will play even harder than normal and as a result, could keep it closer than the experts think. A few turnovers and it could even be a competitive game in the 4Q. Senior leadership this year > last year. Also, USM may be a bit vulnerable up-the-gut and could see Rice run the ball with some success and eat clock.

However, the structural problem in DB era will prevail. Rice plays decent against teams without proven QB's and plays poorly against teams that have good QB's. Mullens picked-us apart last year and has his entire OL back this year. That will be the difference. We won't be able to stop them when we need a stop.

Bigger picture, sad state of affairs hoping for a competitive game in the 4Q against a C-USA team is now considered beating expectations.

No quarrel with what you say. Just want to point out the 0-12 year was also under a new coach. Coaches are like a box of chocolates. I hope we get a good one this year.

The difference is some are willing to throw away stale or subpar chocolate while we continue to doggedly chew ours.

Thats the difference. USM decided to exit early and did so.

(09-29-2016 10:35 AM)Antarius Wrote:  

(09-29-2016 08:44 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-29-2016 08:34 AM)owl40 Wrote:  USM will play winner of MTSU/WKU game for C-USA championship.

Amazing how much they have improved
2012 - 0-12
2013 - 1-11
2014 - 3-9
2015- 9- 5
2016- about to be 4-1

They have shown that they can bring in new coach (Hopson) and still win with Monken's recruits. Am excited to see how they play against LSU in a couple weeks.

I expect Rice to play better than most here do. I genuinely think the players are pissed off, want to save the season, will play even harder than normal and as a result, could keep it closer than the experts think. A few turnovers and it could even be a competitive game in the 4Q. Senior leadership this year > last year. Also, USM may be a bit vulnerable up-the-gut and could see Rice run the ball with some success and eat clock.

However, the structural problem in DB era will prevail. Rice plays decent against teams without proven QB's and plays poorly against teams that have good QB's. Mullens picked-us apart last year and has his entire OL back this year. That will be the difference. We won't be able to stop them when we need a stop.

Bigger picture, sad state of affairs hoping for a competitive game in the 4Q against a C-USA team is now considered beating expectations.

No quarrel with what you say. Just want to point out the 0-12 year was also under a new coach. Coaches are like a box of chocolates. I hope we get a good one this year.

The difference is some are willing to throw away stale or subpar chocolate while we continue to doggedly chew ours.

Thats the difference.

I didn't ask for a difference. why did you feel the need to supply one?

They got rid of Bower, and got Ellis. They got rid of Ellis and got Monken. Monker left and they have Hopson. This sequence is is what has gotten them into the ACC and taken them to a 9-5 record.

I hope we do better with our coaching search later this year. But nobody comes with guarantees.

(09-29-2016 10:42 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-29-2016 10:35 AM)Antarius Wrote:  

(09-29-2016 08:44 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-29-2016 08:34 AM)owl40 Wrote:  USM will play winner of MTSU/WKU game for C-USA championship.

Amazing how much they have improved
2012 - 0-12
2013 - 1-11
2014 - 3-9
2015- 9- 5
2016- about to be 4-1

They have shown that they can bring in new coach (Hopson) and still win with Monken's recruits. Am excited to see how they play against LSU in a couple weeks.

I expect Rice to play better than most here do. I genuinely think the players are pissed off, want to save the season, will play even harder than normal and as a result, could keep it closer than the experts think. A few turnovers and it could even be a competitive game in the 4Q. Senior leadership this year > last year. Also, USM may be a bit vulnerable up-the-gut and could see Rice run the ball with some success and eat clock.

However, the structural problem in DB era will prevail. Rice plays decent against teams without proven QB's and plays poorly against teams that have good QB's. Mullens picked-us apart last year and has his entire OL back this year. That will be the difference. We won't be able to stop them when we need a stop.

Bigger picture, sad state of affairs hoping for a competitive game in the 4Q against a C-USA team is now considered beating expectations.

No quarrel with what you say. Just want to point out the 0-12 year was also under a new coach. Coaches are like a box of chocolates. I hope we get a good one this year.

The difference is some are willing to throw away stale or subpar chocolate while we continue to doggedly chew ours.

Thats the difference.

I didn't ask for a difference. why did you feel the need to supply one?

They got rid of Bower, and got Ellis. They got rid of Ellis and got Monken. Monker left and they have Hopson. This sequence is is what has gotten them into the ACC and taken them to a 9-5 record.

I hope we do better with our coaching search later this year. But nobody comes with guarantees.

Heading off your strawman. Thats all. No one has ever said anything close to the bolded point.

Antarius bickering with OO again ... #notshocked.

Some corrections,
"Mullens picked-us apart last year and has his entire OL back this year." Southern Miss replaced both tackles. but the replacements have been solid to great. We rotate in 8 guys on the line every game.

"They got rid of Bower, and got Ellis. They got rid of Ellis and got Monken. Monken left and they have Hopson." Actually, Fedora's 4 winning seasons (culminating with 12-2 C-USA Champs in 2011) fall between Bower and Ellis.

"This sequence is is what has gotten them into the ACC" Do you know something no Southern Miss fan knows? From your lips to God's ears!

The actual thing to look at w/r/t USM is the progression. I agree with you OO, but with a different take

After winning the conference in 96,97 99 and 2001 with two top 20 rankings, 14 winning seasons in a row and bowls in 10 of 11 years.... coach of the decade setting records for USM graduation of players and then retired

2008-11 was Fedora who beat #6 UH for the title in 2011 and was top 20 ranked... 7-6 twice and 8-5 preceded that... got hired away

Johnson failed miserably in the next year and was fired

Monken had two bad seasons then a good one and was hired by the NFL

Hopson has been solid thus far.

You have to be willing to cut and run when coaches fail... and if 'the big boys' aren't coming after your coach, regardless of the w's and l's, then you need to consider raising your bar... and of course, replacing them again.. It IS a bit like a box of chocolates, but you get to inspect the boxes before you buy them. Sure, that salted caramel and pistachio that sounded so good may end up being a dud... so you have to spit it out and buy a different brand next time.

I'd say the actual cost of hiring a coach for us is 120-150% of the salary we pay... IF you embrace this as USM and UH and others have. If you try and do it cheaply, you end up having to swallow all of the duds just so you can get those few milk chocolate melt-a-ways that you really wanted.

It wasn't that they were 9-6 or 12-2, but that they put top 20 rankings on the books and/or beat top 25 teams that got them hired away by the big boys.

We seem to want to play smoke and mirrors and win 10 games but not do it in such a way that anyone in the business gets excited, but somehow our own fans WILL be? I don't think that's the plan, but that's essentially the effective business model.

Not basing this on any logic, but just a gut feeling - I think that it will be a competitive game.

Rice is always going to be at a self-imposed talent disadvantage because of policies that I generally support, although I do think some minor aspects could be changed for the better. That means that anyone who succeeds at Rice must be an overachiever.

Further, that means that anybody who succeeds at Rice will quickly be in high demand for schools willing to pay far more than we are. In that context, I think a reasonable rule is that if the big boys aren't trying to hire our coach away after 3 to at most 5 years, he's the wrong guy for us. And if they want him, a contract buyout is not going to stop them. That's why I favor a five-year rollover contract (the appearance of stability, for recruiting purposes), with a minimal buyout. If he wants to leave, let him; I'm not a big fan of indentured servitude. If he's the wrong guy, make it easy as possible to tell him good bye, and quickly.

As far as identifying the overachievers, it seems to me that there are three pretty common denominators--they recruit well enough to narrow the talent gap as much as possible, they have unique or unusual or contrarian schemes on offense and/or defense (to increase the preparation problem for opponents), and they push execution, execution, execution. Ken Hatfield liked to say you do something different or you do something better, and the overachievers typically seem to do something different and better.

How does David Bailiff stack up against those common denominators? He has recruited better, but I don't see anything unique or unusual or contrarian in his schemes, and solid execution has clearly not been his trademark. When he was at Texas State, his reputation around the Southland Conference is that his teams played hard but were sloppy and made a lot of unforced errors. I'd say that's a pretty accurate description of his time at Rice. So he gets one out of three, and I don't think that will ever be enough to get it done for us.

I won't post the link to Green Day's song 'Wake Me Up When September Ends' again because I've done it already this year, but it is worth noting today is October 1st.

We're something like 11-30 in all September games under Bailiff (I included our occasional August games in there too) and 34-29 in all games starting after September ends. Of course another appropriate song under Bailiff is (University) 'Boulevard of Broken Dreams' so which Green Day song will it be today??

(09-29-2016 08:34 AM)owl40 Wrote:  I genuinely think the players are pissed off, want to save the season, will play even harder than normal and as a result, could keep it closer than the experts think.

Playing hard has never been our problem. OK, maybe a little bit toward the end of last year as the wheels came off, but not generally. Scheme and execution are our problems, and those probably aren't going to change this week.

Quote:Bigger picture, sad state of affairs hoping for a competitive game in the 4Q against a C-USA team is now considered beating expectations.

Remember when hoping for a competitive game in the SWC was considered beating expectations? We've fallen a long way.

(10-01-2016 05:53 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I won't post the link to Green Day's song 'Wake Me Up When September Ends' again because I've done it already this year, but it is worth noting today is October 1st.

We're something like 11-30 in all September games under Bailiff (I included our occasional August games in there too) and 34-29 in all games starting after September ends. Of course another appropriate song under Bailiff is (University) 'Boulevard of Broken Dreams' so which Green Day song will it be today??

Next time I have a flight with wifi I will pull the sagarin/Massey ratings of teams we play in September vs after. Am curious to see what the delta is.

(10-01-2016 05:52 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Rice is always going to be at a self-imposed talent disadvantage because of policies that I generally support, although I do think some minor aspects could be changed for the better. That means that anyone who succeeds at Rice must be an overachiever.

Further, that means that anybody who succeeds at Rice will quickly be in high demand for schools willing to pay far more than we are. In that context, I think a reasonable rule is that if the big boys aren't trying to hire our coach away after 3 to at most 5 years, he's the wrong guy for us. And if they want him, a contract buyout is not going to stop them. That's why I favor a five-year rollover contract (the appearance of stability, for recruiting purposes), with a minimal buyout. If he wants to leave, let him; I'm not a big fan of indentured servitude. If he's the wrong guy, make it easy as possible to tell him good bye, and quickly.

As far as identifying the overachievers, it seems to me that there are three pretty common denominators--they recruit well enough to narrow the talent gap as much as possible, they have unique or unusual or contrarian schemes on offense and/or defense (to increase the preparation problem for opponents), and they push execution, execution, execution. Ken Hatfield liked to say you do something different or you do something better, and the overachievers typically seem to do something different and better.

How does David Bailiff stack up against those common denominators? He has recruited better, but I don't see anything unique or unusual or contrarian in his schemes, and solid execution has clearly not been his trademark. When he was at Texas State, his reputation around the Southland Conference is that his teams played hard but were sloppy and made a lot of unforced errors. I'd say that's a pretty accurate description of his time at Rice. So he gets one out of three, and I don't think that will ever be enough to get it done for us.

I'd add a fourth "denominator"-- master motivator.

(10-01-2016 07:36 AM)Antarius Wrote:  

(10-01-2016 05:53 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I won't post the link to Green Day's song 'Wake Me Up When September Ends' again because I've done it already this year, but it is worth noting today is October 1st.

We're something like 11-30 in all September games under Bailiff (I included our occasional August games in there too) and 34-29 in all games starting after September ends. Of course another appropriate song under Bailiff is (University) 'Boulevard of Broken Dreams' so which Green Day song will it be today??

Next time I have a flight with wifi I will pull the sagarin/Massey ratings of teams we play in September vs after. Am curious to see what the delta is.

I think you'll find that most of our P5 games are in September, so I don't think there's anything magical about October, it's just that by then we're in conference.

(10-01-2016 01:12 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Not basing this on any logic, but just a gut feeling - I think that it will be a competitive game.

All of our games have been competitive, for a while. I believe Rice has lead in all 4 games only to not be able to deal with adjustments made by the other team.

EDIT: Rice never lead vs. WKU.

(10-01-2016 10:03 AM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-01-2016 01:12 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Not basing this on any logic, but just a gut feeling - I think that it will be a competitive game.

All of our games have been competitive, for a while. I believe Rice has lead in all 4 games only to not be able to deal with adjustments made by the other team.

EDIT: Rice never lead vs. WKU.

Do you really think it is adjustments by other teams or just regressing to the mean?

I've seen nothing out of this team this year that indicates they can sustain quality play over more than 1 Q of football.

(10-01-2016 11:57 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-01-2016 10:03 AM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-01-2016 01:12 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Not basing this on any logic, but just a gut feeling - I think that it will be a competitive game.

All of our games have been competitive, for a while. I believe Rice has lead in all 4 games only to not be able to deal with adjustments made by the other team.

EDIT: Rice never lead vs. WKU.

Do you really think it is adjustments by other teams or just regressing to the mean?

I've seen nothing out of this team this year that indicates they can sustain quality play over more than 1 Q of football.

Based on observations people who know a lot about the game have posted here, I believe it's a combination of things. Some have pointed out that the offense's first drive or two is scripted in advance. So, the offense knows what to do having practiced it and not needing to checkoff/meercat/get confused/call timeout - and, lo and behold, practice and coordination pay off. Then the script runs out...

(10-01-2016 08:26 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(10-01-2016 05:52 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  As far as identifying the overachievers, it seems to me that there are three pretty common denominators--they recruit well enough to narrow the talent gap as much as possible, they have unique or unusual or contrarian schemes on offense and/or defense (to increase the preparation problem for opponents), and they push execution, execution, execution.

I'd add a fourth "denominator"-- master motivator.

Keep in mind that the football I played was for coaches who were Bear Bryant disciples, and Bryant has heavily influenced my thinking about football.

He really wasn't very big on motivational speeches and the likes, which is kind of odd in the way because he was pretty much off the Knute Rockne coaching tree--he played for Frank Thomas at Alabama, and Thomas had played for Rockne--and Rockne was famous for pregame/halftime motivational speeches.

Bryant tended more toward the viewpoint that the search for perfection in execution was the motivator. He felt that relying on emotion was an up and down thing but pushing perfection of execution would always be there. I knew players who played for him at Alabama, and they said a high powered motivational speech from him was something like, "Get with your position coaches and go over your checklists again."

A former player of his told the story that toward the end of their series with Georgia Tech, there was some serious bad blood between Bryant and the Atlanta media. The last time they played before Georgia Tech dropped the series, during pregame warmups the Tech players were really animated, jumping all around, making a lot of noise, giving all indications of being really fired up for the game. Back in the locker room for the pregame talk, Bryant told them, "Those Tech players look really excited out there. Looks like they are really fired up for us. I'm sure they'll stay fired up until you knock them on their asses. Then they won't be so fired up any more."