(08-05-2016 04:00 PM)maccoog Wrote:  So if Big 12 expansion ends up not happening which means the AAC stays intact, will you guys go back saying the AAC sucks and CUSA is just as good like you used too?

Who do you see groveling at this point? If we get the chance to move we will and it will be good for us, if we don't, we're happy in CUSA.

But please, find me an example of someone who has said "the AAC sucks" that is now talking up their program to get in. I expect if you can find any it would be some of the more...outspoken...fans of CUSA 2.0 schools, but even then, I think you're painting a different picture of the attitudes that actually exist around here, but alternate realities are old hat for the sixth P5 conference, ammiright?

(08-05-2016 04:00 PM)maccoog Wrote:  So if Big 12 expansion ends up not happening which means the AAC stays intact, will you guys go back saying the AAC sucks and CUSA is just as good like you used too?

Let me turn that one around on you. If the B12 doesn't expand, which of course means that AAC's finest (probably includes UH, Cincy, and Memphis) goes into a fetal position; are you going to continue to act like CUSA is the island of misfit toys? In the end, we just need to make sure CUSA teams play AAC teams in Bowl Games and OOC reg. season; then everything takes care of itself over time.

(08-05-2016 04:11 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 04:00 PM)maccoog Wrote:  So if Big 12 expansion ends up not happening which means the AAC stays intact, will you guys go back saying the AAC sucks and CUSA is just as good like you used too?

Who do you see groveling at this point? If we get the chance to move we will and it will be good for us, if we don't, we're happy in CUSA.

But please, find me an example of someone who has said "the AAC sucks" that is now talking up their program to get in. I expect if you can find any it would be some of the more...outspoken...fans of CUSA 2.0 schools, but even then, I think you're painting a different picture of the attitudes that actually exist around here, but alternate realities are old hat for the sixth P5 conference, ammiright?

And they all said -- Amen!

(08-05-2016 01:36 PM)usm99 Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:14 PM)OwlFamily Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:04 PM)wkuhilltopperfan Wrote:  Any good AD would be making contact for sure.

Agreed, I would imagine all of our AD and Presidents have been talking as well. You have to cover yourself in this realignment merry go round. I'd be dissapointed if FAU hadn't reached out to AAC and up to see how they felt about our school.

EXACTLY. Just like Houston, Memphis, UConn, Cincy, UCF, BYU, Colorado St, etc have been in contact with the Big 12 about joining it

I can assure you that many other schools have also contacted the Big 12 that are not in the MTN West or Merica

(08-05-2016 01:44 PM)cotton1991 Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:07 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:05 PM)Thegoldstandard Wrote:  problem is Memphis wont need replacing

I'm beginning to wonder if AAC might stick at 10 (or 11) if they only lose 1-2 members (1 member would be in a BYU or Colorado St scenario).

That's pretty much what the AAC commissioner has said for the past year or so: if they lose 2 they would add no one and stay at 10, if they lose 1 they would add 1 to get back to 12.

the aac will lose one now and possibly 2 at the end of the year. byu baring divine intervention from those who dislike joesph smith is in.

BYU, CINN, UCONN, UH, Memphis, Colorado ST, USF, and UCF all have legitimate shots at one of the last spots that will ever be available in a P5 conference. I think the Big 12 will add only two, but even if it adds four, that means four of the schools I listed will be stuck in a G5 conference with the likes of us. That's gonna be a tough pill to swallow for some of those fan bases.

Once its top two or three programs are gone, we'll all see exactly how little the networks think of G5 football when the AAC has to negotiate its next TV contract. At that point, some sort of a geographic realignment among the G5 conferences will start to make sense to most reasonable people. Right now, the AAC, CUSA, and the Sun Belt conferences all occupy the same basic foot print. Three very compact and competitive conferences could be carved out of that foot print.

Or.....the top 40 or so G5 programs could form an alliance and try to screw everybody else with a scheduling agreement between themselves and the P5 conferences. I've read that this is something that is currently being discussed among some of the schools that desperately want to be differentiated from the G5 conferences. I suppose that if your own school is one that is included in this group, you'd be all in for such an alliance. It sure would sure suck if your school didn't make that cut.

(08-06-2016 05:37 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  BYU, CINN, UCONN, UH, Memphis, Colorado ST, USF, and UCF all have legitimate shots at one of the last spots that will ever be available in a P5 conference. I think the Big 12 will add only two, but even if it adds four, that means four of the schools I listed will be stuck in a G5 conference with the likes of us. That's gonna be a tough pill to swallow for some of those fan bases.

Once its top two or three programs are gone, we'll all see exactly how little the networks think of G5 football when the AAC has to negotiate its next TV contract. At that point, some sort of a geographic realignment among the G5 conferences will start to make sense to most reasonable people. Right now, the AAC, CUSA, and the Sun Belt conferences all occupy the same basic foot print. Three very compact and competitive conferences could be carved out of that foot print.

Or.....the top 40 or so G5 programs could form an alliance and try to screw everybody else with a scheduling agreement between themselves and the P5 conferences. I've read that this is something that is currently being discussed among some of the schools that desperately want to be differentiated from the G5 conferences. I suppose that if your own school is one that is included in this group, you'd be all in for such an alliance. It sure would sure suck if your school didn't make that cut.

I disagree on this being the last ever spot available for a P5 invite. I think expansion, realignment will be around and active for a long time to come. We will mostly think it is done when all of a sudden greed wells up in the eyes of the Big 10 or SEC or one of the other P conferences. Instead of 14 they will decide 16 makes them more money. So 5 years from now we will likely see another round of realignment. Then later they will decide 18 is best then later 20. And on and on it goes. Most of us on this board will be long gone before realignment ends, if it ever does.

I am beginning to believe that when the current round of tv contracts are up for renegotiation and what I believe the technologies and economic circumstances are likely to be, we will may see some form of contraction or split even within the P5. I don't think the money being shared with the miss states and iowa states will sit well as the revenue from tv dries up.

I am also not convinced that football will forever be the heavyweight sport in terms of fan interest. Just like boxing, horse racing, and baseball had their times, things may be changing. Even P5 programs are having struggles with attendance.

How are you going to split when you have to pay 5 million to leave CUSA? Those schools that feel like they are getting the short end of the deal will demand the 5 million from each school that leaves.

Unless there is a line in the contract that states if a number???? of schools decide to leave the conference the rules will no longer be enforced.

Lets use UTSA, FIU, FAU, UNT, UTEP in this example...

if the other CUSA schools decide they no longer want to make those trips and those schools are not as good as say...

ULL, ASU, App, GST and GASA. And those 5 SBC schools thought the same thing and wanted to be in a conference with the remaining CUSA schools. Do you think the SBC and CUSA schools left behind are going to just say, BYE? Nope they will want some money and in money...millions

That would be millions you can no longer pay with TV dollars

There is never going to be a perfect conference where everyone agrees. There will be a few schools wanting to get paid

(08-05-2016 03:11 PM)ODUBB35 Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 12:56 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  C. Austin Cox ‏@C_Austin_Cox · 46m46 minutes ago

It looks like #MTSU and the AAC have been in contact over the last two weeks. Blue Raiders have a nice stadium + great Memphis replacement.

____________________________________________

Maybe everyone in the conference has been in contact with them but this is the first tweet I've seen that mentions it. Look out ODU, Marshall and USM. MT is making its move.

Uhoh... To paraphrase another thread...


I believe its time to put MTSU in their place....

Maybe so, but it damn sure won't be anyone from ODU to do it. You guys actually have to beat us in something first.

No conference is going to invite us short of last resort unless we change the name and in the next five minutes.

If another team leap frogs UTEP and gets into another conference, Im going to be pissed.

(08-05-2016 01:07 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:05 PM)Thegoldstandard Wrote:  problem is Memphis wont need replacing

I'm beginning to wonder if AAC might stick at 10 (or 11) if they only lose 1-2 members (1 member would be in a BYU or Colorado St scenario).

I don't understand why everyone doesn't see this as the most probable scenario.

Delusions of grandeur I suppose.

(08-06-2016 05:37 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  BYU, CINN, UCONN, UH, Memphis, Colorado ST, USF, and UCF all have legitimate shots at one of the last spots that will ever be available in a P5 conference. I think the Big 12 will add only two, but even if it adds four, that means four of the schools I listed will be stuck in a G5 conference with the likes of us. That's gonna be a tough pill to swallow for some of those fan bases.

Once its top two or three programs are gone, we'll all see exactly how little the networks think of G5 football when the AAC has to negotiate its next TV contract. At that point, some sort of a geographic realignment among the G5 conferences will start to make sense to most reasonable people. Right now, the AAC, CUSA, and the Sun Belt conferences all occupy the same basic foot print. Three very compact and competitive conferences could be carved out of that foot print.

Or.....the top 40 or so G5 programs could form an alliance and try to screw everybody else with a scheduling agreement between themselves and the P5 conferences. I've read that this is something that is currently being discussed among some of the schools that desperately want to be differentiated from the G5 conferences. I suppose that if your own school is one that is included in this group, you'd be all in for such an alliance. It sure would sure suck if your school didn't make that cut.

I haven't heard the alliance idea. While it's intriguing, it lacks the guaranteed slot in an access bowl. So, ultimately, it probably isn't very likely to occur.

Another option (assuming a decision was made to reorganize the overlapping G5 eastern conferences into 3 tight regional conferences), would be to have 3 seperate eastern regional conferences---but negotiate tv contracts as one, That would tie up about 70% of the G5 inventory in the most populated portion of the country (I believe something like 80% of the uS population resides in the central and eastern time zones).

Those 3 conferences could also agree to collectively siphon off 10% of their CFP money which would be used to create 2 high paying bowls that would have high enough payouts to attract a relatively high finishing P5 opponent. That would give the all 3 conferences a guaranteed high quality bowl destination for one of the 3 champions each year. One of the 2 new bowls would be vs a P5 and the other bowl would pit the two lower ranked champs against one another. Both bowls would be owned by the 3 conferences and would be revenue producers within a few years.

(08-05-2016 03:11 PM)ODUBB35 Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 12:56 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  C. Austin Cox ‏@C_Austin_Cox · 46m46 minutes ago

It looks like #MTSU and the AAC have been in contact over the last two weeks. Blue Raiders have a nice stadium + great Memphis replacement.

____________________________________________

Maybe everyone in the conference has been in contact with them but this is the first tweet I've seen that mentions it. Look out ODU, Marshall and USM. MT is making its move.

Uhoh... To paraphrase another thread...


I believe its time to put MTSU in their place....

Nope. MTSU actually makes sense. They've earned the right to be in the discussion.

(08-06-2016 11:12 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 03:11 PM)ODUBB35 Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 12:56 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  C. Austin Cox ‏@C_Austin_Cox · 46m46 minutes ago

It looks like #MTSU and the AAC have been in contact over the last two weeks. Blue Raiders have a nice stadium + great Memphis replacement.

____________________________________________

Maybe everyone in the conference has been in contact with them but this is the first tweet I've seen that mentions it. Look out ODU, Marshall and USM. MT is making its move.

Uhoh... To paraphrase another thread...

I believe its time to put MTSU in their place....

Nope. MTSU actually makes sense. They've earned the right to be in the discussion.

Marshall is fortunate that humor comprehension is not one of the factors considered for conference affiliation. Because if it were, you'd plainly be among the non-qualifiers, flyhawk98.

(08-06-2016 01:15 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  

(08-06-2016 11:12 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 03:11 PM)ODUBB35 Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 12:56 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  C. Austin Cox ‏@C_Austin_Cox · 46m46 minutes ago

It looks like #MTSU and the AAC have been in contact over the last two weeks. Blue Raiders have a nice stadium + great Memphis replacement.

____________________________________________

Maybe everyone in the conference has been in contact with them but this is the first tweet I've seen that mentions it. Look out ODU, Marshall and USM. MT is making its move.

Uhoh... To paraphrase another thread...

I believe its time to put MTSU in their place....

Nope. MTSU actually makes sense. They've earned the right to be in the discussion.

Marshall is fortunate that humor comprehension is not one of the factors considered for conference affiliation. Because if it were, you'd plainly be among the non-qualifiers, flyhawk98.

Actually, FlyHawk98 has now risen to the top of the Objective Knowledge Board on Conference Worthiness. Astute Observation on his part

(08-06-2016 10:08 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:07 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:05 PM)Thegoldstandard Wrote:  problem is Memphis wont need replacing

I'm beginning to wonder if AAC might stick at 10 (or 11) if they only lose 1-2 members (1 member would be in a BYU or Colorado St scenario).

I don't understand why everyone doesn't see this as the most probable scenario.

Delusions of grandeur I suppose.

That's what they've publicly said was the plan. However, they may be finding out that losing 2 teams won't fly with the TV people. That's a game on every conference playing date that's gone in every sport. 8 football games and 30-some basketball games simply don't exist anymore. It's bad enough to lose a few of your best programs, but decreasing the number of available games you can sell on top of it could compound things. Bigger conferences are obviously not automatically better, but if ESPN says, "Replacing Cincinnati with Marshall will keep your price closer to what it is than will holding at 10," you know which choice the conference is going to pick.

Hell, this may be an opportunity for ESPN to consolidate every G5 program of any discernible TV value in the Central & Eastern time zones under one contract. I honestly wouldn't be stunned to see the AAC lose 2, then turn around & expand to 16 for that reason.

I do not think they will go as far as 16 but 14 is a fair possibility if TV will pay enough to overcome the other disadvantages of being a 14 team G5 league. Staying at ten is very doubtful simply because of the inventory shortages listed in the previous post.

(08-06-2016 03:56 PM)HarborPointe Wrote:  

(08-06-2016 10:08 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:07 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(08-05-2016 01:05 PM)Thegoldstandard Wrote:  problem is Memphis wont need replacing

I'm beginning to wonder if AAC might stick at 10 (or 11) if they only lose 1-2 members (1 member would be in a BYU or Colorado St scenario).

I don't understand why everyone doesn't see this as the most probable scenario.

Delusions of grandeur I suppose.

That's what they've publicly said was the plan. However, they may be finding out that losing 2 teams won't fly with the TV people. That's a game on every conference playing date that's gone in every sport. 8 football games and 30-some basketball games simply don't exist anymore. It's bad enough to lose a few of your best programs, but decreasing the number of available games you can sell on top of it could compound things. Bigger conferences are obviously not automatically better, but if ESPN says, "Replacing Cincinnati with Marshall will keep your price closer to what it is than will holding at 10," you know which choice the conference is going to pick.

Hell, this may be an opportunity for ESPN to consolidate every G5 program of any discernible TV value in the Central & Eastern time zones under one contract. I honestly wouldn't be stunned to see the AAC lose 2, then turn around & expand to 16 for that reason.

But here's the thing. This is exactly to type of attempts to rationale an immediate 'fix it now' mentality rather than with a strategic approach.

To acquiesce to the demand of the TV now lacks vision. It's the same mistake C-USA made. That AAC deal only has three years left on it, so let's assume the networks "force" the AAC to add teams to keep the TV money respectable. What then happens is when that new TV deal starts to be renegotiated in a year and a half to two years from now, all those networks are going to revalue (or perhaps a better word is devalue) their assessment of what the league possesses and then on top of that the AAC is going to be forced to split that money more ways because of a decision they made based on just a couple of years worth of TV revenue.

At some point, the non-power leagues are going to have to start thinking more strategically, prepare for the long game and understand how to survive the massive shift that is occurring in collegiate athletics. But that's just one man's opinion so, que sera sera.