Following up on this subject, Phil Steele just gave his 8 Best early CFB season win total bets to ESPN Insider. Here's a brief snippet:

Quote:Cincinnati Bearcats (over 6.5)
This may be my favorite play on the board. Despite myriad injuries last year the Bearcats won seven games. They were minus-19 in turnovers, which they should improve upon. Despite their 4-4 mark in the American Conference, they were plus-167 yards per game, which was a league best...

124th out of 127 in turnover margin. Mother of God.

(06-29-2016 08:10 PM)Dannyboy Wrote:  124th out of 127 in turnover margin. Mother of God.

??????

Minus 19 in turnovers. That made us 124th. It's a wonder we won 7 games.

(06-29-2016 10:06 PM)Dannyboy Wrote:  Minus 19 in turnovers. That made us 124th. It's a wonder we won 7 games.

We're fortunate to play a bunch of crappy teams

(06-29-2016 10:06 PM)Dannyboy Wrote:  Minus 19 in turnovers. That made us 124th. It's a wonder we won 7 games.

Pessimism intensifies.

Honestly, if we have a renewed focus on the running game and fewer turnovers this year the year will go very well. Both of those things killed us last year.

(06-30-2016 06:54 AM)Racinejake Wrote:  

(06-29-2016 10:06 PM)Dannyboy Wrote:  Minus 19 in turnovers. That made us 124th. It's a wonder we won 7 games.

We're fortunate to play a bunch of crappy teams

You got that right. This year's schedule is thankfully even softer.

(06-30-2016 08:41 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  You got that right. This year's schedule is thankfully even softer.

Softer and we play the toughest games at home.

Yep. Don't leave Nippert much in the first 7 games either. I think Purdue and UCONN are the only road games in the first 2 months. I'd need to look to verify, though.

When you a deeper dive, it is startling to see how many of those turnovers from last year were either Pick 6's or instances where we turned the ball over while in or near the read zone. Just off the top of my head Gunner threw Pick 6's against Temple, Memphis and Houston. Gunner threw INT's in the red zone against Temple and Tion Green fumbled the ball as he was carrying the ball into the end zone for a TD. Not cited in those turnover figures you can't discount the special teams gaffes which led to points by the opposition (those are turnovers in my book).

The crazy thing is we had all those turnovers/mistakes, but should have still beaten Temple, Memphis and Houston for sure. Gunner threw 4 INT's against Temple and we still were within a score of beating them. If not for a bad call at Memphis we are kicking a field goal late in the game for a win against Memphis. We had a 14 point swing against Houston late in the game on Tion's fumble and a Gunner Pick 6. SMH....

(06-30-2016 08:47 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  When you a deeper dive, it is startling to see how many of those turnovers from last year were either Pick 6's or instances where we turned the ball over while in or near the read zone. Just off the top of my head Gunner threw Pick 6's against Temple, Memphis and Houston. Gunner threw INT's in the red zone against Temple and Tion Green fumbled the ball as he was carrying the ball into the end zone for a TD. Not cited in those turnover figures you can't discount the special teams gaffes which led to points by the opposition (those are turnovers in my book).

The crazy thing is we had all those turnovers/mistakes, but should have still beaten Temple, Memphis and Houston for sure. Gunner threw 4 INT's against Temple and we still were within a score of beating them. If not for a bad call at Memphis we are kicking a field goal late in the game for a win against Memphis. We had a 14 point swing against Houston late in the game on Tion's fumble and a Gunner Pick 6. SMH....

I don't get the "We should have beaten..." idea. When I watched those games, I remember thinking "It's amazing we're not further behind..." We needed low-probability plays to stay within striking distance of all those games...especially after disastrous 3rd quarters. People keep coming back to "We could have won those games" but the big scores we got were all to fill deep holes. Temple, Memphis, and Houston pretty well dominated us in all the stats except "Yards of total offense" because our D and special teams gave up huge scoring plays while our offense chewed up yards but didn't score.

You know often people will say "The final score doesn't tell how close the game was for most of thing..." Last year, I felt almost completely the opposite: "The final score doesn't tell how far apart we were..." We got dominated in those three games except the final score wasn't indicative of it. Your mileage may vary, but I don't have nearly the "warm fuzzies" for those three games you seem to have.

(06-30-2016 09:25 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(06-30-2016 08:47 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  When you a deeper dive, it is startling to see how many of those turnovers from last year were either Pick 6's or instances where we turned the ball over while in or near the read zone. Just off the top of my head Gunner threw Pick 6's against Temple, Memphis and Houston. Gunner threw INT's in the red zone against Temple and Tion Green fumbled the ball as he was carrying the ball into the end zone for a TD. Not cited in those turnover figures you can't discount the special teams gaffes which led to points by the opposition (those are turnovers in my book).

The crazy thing is we had all those turnovers/mistakes, but should have still beaten Temple, Memphis and Houston for sure. Gunner threw 4 INT's against Temple and we still were within a score of beating them. If not for a bad call at Memphis we are kicking a field goal late in the game for a win against Memphis. We had a 14 point swing against Houston late in the game on Tion's fumble and a Gunner Pick 6. SMH....

I don't get the "We should have beaten..." idea. When I watched those games, I remember thinking "It's amazing we're not further behind..." We needed low-probability plays to stay within striking distance of all those games...especially after disastrous 3rd quarters. People keep coming back to "We could have won those games" but the big scores we got were all to fill deep holes. Temple, Memphis, and Houston pretty well dominated us in all the stats except "Yards of total offense" because our D and special teams gave up huge scoring plays while our offense chewed up yards but didn't score.

You know often people will say "The final score doesn't tell how close the game was for most of thing..." Last year, I felt almost completely the opposite: "The final score doesn't tell how far apart we were..." We got dominated in those three games except the final score wasn't indicative of it. Your mileage may vary, but I don't have nearly the "warm fuzzies" for those three games you seem to have.

Not to mention the truth:
Coulda, woulda, shoulda... DIDN'T.
I don't take to mooning over lost games. You largely make your own success and failure. The team that "Should have" won, won. You can say, "But we gave up huge mistakes..." but that's largely on us. Temple, Memphis, and Houston DIDN'T make those mistakes and that's part of why they won those games.

(06-30-2016 09:25 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(06-30-2016 08:47 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  When you a deeper dive, it is startling to see how many of those turnovers from last year were either Pick 6's or instances where we turned the ball over while in or near the read zone. Just off the top of my head Gunner threw Pick 6's against Temple, Memphis and Houston. Gunner threw INT's in the red zone against Temple and Tion Green fumbled the ball as he was carrying the ball into the end zone for a TD. Not cited in those turnover figures you can't discount the special teams gaffes which led to points by the opposition (those are turnovers in my book).

The crazy thing is we had all those turnovers/mistakes, but should have still beaten Temple, Memphis and Houston for sure. Gunner threw 4 INT's against Temple and we still were within a score of beating them. If not for a bad call at Memphis we are kicking a field goal late in the game for a win against Memphis. We had a 14 point swing against Houston late in the game on Tion's fumble and a Gunner Pick 6. SMH....

I don't get the "We should have beaten..." idea. When I watched those games, I remember thinking "It's amazing we're not further behind..." We needed low-probability plays to stay within striking distance of all those games...especially after disastrous 3rd quarters. People keep coming back to "We could have won those games" but the big scores we got were all to fill deep holes. Temple, Memphis, and Houston pretty well dominated us in all the stats except "Yards of total offense" because our D and special teams gave up huge scoring plays while our offense chewed up yards but didn't score.

You know often people will say "The final score doesn't tell how close the game was for most of thing..." Last year, I felt almost completely the opposite: "The final score doesn't tell how far apart we were..." We got dominated in those three games except the final score wasn't indicative of it. Your mileage may vary, but I don't have nearly the "warm fuzzies" for those three games you seem to have.

The bolded is what gets me...you're saying that we were dominated in all statistical areas, but if we beat them in total offense, that means that our offense beat their offense and by extension our defense beat their defense statistically (big emphasis on that last word).

The fact of the matter is that all of those teams needed big fluke plays to beat us too. Temple's onside kick AND kick return, Memphis had a pick-six early and a long pass play, and Houston had that goal line fiasco and a pick-six of their own.

The truth of the matter is, if we limit their possessions by limiting our turnovers, we probably end up winning all three of those games, and I'm of the mindset that coaches put players in the position to succeed and the players are the ones throwing the ball to the opposite teams (that onside kick notwithstanding, which was obviously a tactical mistake on the ST GA's part that Temple picked up on). Our year was filled with toss-up games going both ways, and much of that has to do with luck...unfortunately we were unlucky in a lot of instances last season. We very realistically could've ended the regular season at 10-2 with three INT's being drops instead, or we could've lost at ECU and vs. Tulsa due to similar problems.

Did our coaches screw up, abso-friggin-lutely, as primarily evidenced by their post-halftime shellacking by opposing coaching adjustments and the misuse of some of our best players. If another season like last year turnover-wise happens again I'd be absolutely shocked, and that was a huge reason why we lost 6 games, the thing that troubles me however, is that we had two games against moderate competition where we were just plain run over. That never happened with the previous coaching staffs (excluding Pittsburgh in '10 when our team had clearly given up on the year and '08 UConn when we were starting our 4th string QB) and that's what worries me.

^^ Concur with Bearcatman on all points.

As to your last paragraph, agree those losses to USF and SD State were more problematic than Temple, Houston and Memphis. We looked like a bad FCS school out there against those two teams. I haven't seen anything like that since Louisville blew us out 70-7 in 2004 (which was a one off). Hell as mediocre as the Minter years were nobody drubbed us like that. At most FBS schools with some sense of pride, those two performances are grounds for termination on the spot.

Edit: While I am thinking of it the BYU game bothered me too but for different. We were not physically prepared for that game and team/coaching staff gave up late.

(06-30-2016 09:58 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  ^^ Concur with Bearcatman on all points.

As to your last paragraph, agree those losses to USF and SD State were more problematic than Temple, Houston and Memphis. We looked like a bad FCS school out there against those two teams. I haven't seen anything like that since Louisville blew us out 70-7 in 2004 (which was a one off). Hell as mediocre as the Minter years were nobody drubbed us like that. At most FBS schools with some sense of pride, those two performances are grounds for termination on the spot.

Edit: While I am thinking of it the BYU game bothered me too but for different. We were not physically prepared for that game and team/coaching staff gave up late.

Completely agree, and that lack of preparation is an even stronger negative when looking at the schedule. They had 15 days before that game to prepare.

They rarely look prepared on the road. Its an embarrassment.

(06-30-2016 11:12 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  They rarely look prepared on the road. Its an embarrassment.

Which is why i refuse to go to purdue let alone waste a weekend again with the current staff.

(06-30-2016 08:47 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  When you a deeper dive, it is startling to see how many of those turnovers from last year were either Pick 6's or instances where we turned the ball over while in or near the read zone. Just off the top of my head Gunner threw Pick 6's against Temple, Memphis and Houston. Gunner threw INT's in the red zone against Temple and Tion Green fumbled the ball as he was carrying the ball into the end zone for a TD. Not cited in those turnover figures you can't discount the special teams gaffes which led to points by the opposition (those are turnovers in my book).

The crazy thing is we had all those turnovers/mistakes, but should have still beaten Temple, Memphis and Houston for sure. Gunner threw 4 INT's against Temple and we still were within a score of beating them. If not for a bad call at Memphis we are kicking a field goal late in the game for a win against Memphis. We had a 14 point swing against Houston late in the game on Tion's fumble and a Gunner Pick 6. SMH....

If wish and but were candy and nuts it would be Christmas every day of the year.

(06-30-2016 11:12 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  They rarely look prepared on the road. Its an embarrassment.

+1. Tubberville is a huge problem and so was/is his staff. The more staff turnover there was from last year to this year is probably a good thing. Personally I'm very happy Gran is gone. I thought he was way overhyped. His offenses were totally undisciplined and played with terrible fundamentals. Plus he had P5 level talent going against C-USA level talent all 3 years he was at UC. Any OC who inherits a situation like that would have had some degree of success. I thought how he used and designed his run game was high schoolish at best.