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The Dance Card (http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm) has always been one of my favorite Tournament Trackers over the years. In 2011, it accurately predicted UAB in the field. If we used the formula to seed the NIT, here's what it would look like.

Note: we all know the NIT Committee will have a ton of selection bias, including geographical considerations, so the end result will be likely be wildly different.

Here's what we've got. Teams are listed with their Dance Card coefficient. Rankings through yesterday's games:

The 1s
Monmouth (50)*
Valpo (51)*
Tulsa (52)
Syracuse (53)

The 2s
Wichita State (54)*
South Carolina (56)
Washington (57)
George Washington (58)

The 3s
Georgia Tech (59)
Virginia Tech (60)
Hofstra (63)
Ohio State (64)

The 4s
Bammer (66)
Stanford (68)
Georgia (69)
Princeton (70)

The 5s
Houston (71)
Davidson (72)
LSU (73)
Florida State (76)

The 6s
BYU (77)
William & Mary (78)
Marquette (79)
UC Irvine (81)

The 7s
Fresno State (82)
UAB (83)*
Belmont (116)*
Winthrop (141)*

The 8s
North Florida (167)*
Bucknell (168)*
Wagner (169)*
Texas Southern (206)*

*autobids

Last Four In:

William & Mary (78)
Marquette (79)
UC Irvine (81)
Fresno State (82)

First Four Out:

IPFW (84)
Clemson (85)
Creighton (88)
Long Beach St (89)

Conference tournaments could still cause some chaos. Tonight, Akron, Little Rock, Stephen F Austin, Hawaii, New Mexico State, and Weber State are all 1-seeds playing in their tournament final. Should they slip up, it would squeeze out an at-large team and add them to the mix. We're guaranteed at least a 7, but we may be able to get a 6 if Hawaii, New Mexico State, and Weber State get the .

Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Bammer, Georgia, and maybe even a rematch at Virginia Tech are all first round possibilities. I'd like to see the Blazers play at Wichita State, personally.

I don't see teams like William and Mary and UC-Irvine getting at large bids. Most at large bids in the NIT go to Power conferences.

Yep. Clemson and Creighton would likely realistically get those spots. However, I'm expecting some more 1 seeds to go down tonight, so you'll see those teams get squeezed out.

If we had not won the regular season we probably would not have gotten in the NIT. That was some of the talk at the tourney among talking heads.

(03-12-2016 07:58 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  If we had not won the regular season we probably would not have gotten in the NIT. That was some of the talk at the tourney among talking heads.

I believe that.

Fresno state beat San Diego State today.

Buffalo just beat 1 seed Akron in MAC Final

Man it is bad to be a 1 seed this year.

Akron will likely join the NIT fold now, bumping an NIT team off the bubble and moving us down.

we need to do better at the beginning of the season when we play some name teams

New Mexico St lost as the 1 seed last night to Bakersfield

Good bubble article. If they don't get in they'll be NIT teams.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nca.../81695166/

(03-12-2016 10:01 PM)jcduncan13 Wrote:  Man it is bad to be a 1 seed this year.

19 have fallen as of this morning

Update! After last night's games, here's what you've got:

The 1s
Temple (47)*
Wichita State (50)*
Tulsa (51)
Valpo (52)*

The 2s
Monmouth (53)*
Syracuse (54)
Washington (55)
South Carolina (56)

The 3s
George Washington (57)
Akron (60)*
Georgia Tech (61)
Hofstra (62)

The 4s
Ohio State (64)
Bammer (66)
Virginia Tech (67)
Stanford (68)

The 5s
Princeton (69)
Georgia (70)
LSU (71)
Houston (72)

The 6s
Davidson (73)
Florida State (76)
William & Mary (80)
Marquette (81)

The 7s
UAB (85)*
Belmont (113)*
New Mexico State (116)*
Winthrop (141)*

The 8s
Bucknell (167)*
North Florida (169)*
Wagner (170)*
Texas Southern (206)*

*autobids

Look for BYU, Creighton, and Clemson to squeeze out teams like Princeton, William & Mary, and possibly even Davidson. No way the Committee keeps the most highly rated teams as 1 seeds--if Syracuse is left out they'll be a 1. South Carolina, Georgia Tech, or a mid-major matchup with Valpo/Tulsa/Wichita looking possible right now. If 58-56 II happens, it will be as a 3/6 game. Also, if UALR falls in the Sun Belt Championship, they will join the NIT field and bump someone out of a spot.

NIT lineup looks pretty good actually. We need to do well and build some momentum/recognition for next year. I feel like teams that do well in the NIT get the benefit of the doubt the next year if they're a bubble team.

Also, note the Dance Card has Michigan, Vandy and San Diego State all in. Should these teams be left out, they would be solid 1s.

It'll be a tough day for Akron. They finished 25-8 with an RPI of 34--but their lack of a Top 50 win and 6 WTF losses has sealed their fate.

Another bracket has us a six playing at UGA

Our friend Phil Martelli takes out VCU to win the A-10. Likely no effect on the postseason, as both look to be in the NCAA tournament.

UALR takes care of business and makes the tournament, sparing an NIT bubble team.

Fun Fact: The Sun Belt tournament only invites the Top 8 teams and gives the Top 2 a double-bye, meaning they only need to win twice to go dancing.

(03-13-2016 02:03 PM)FNblazer Wrote:  UALR takes care of business and makes the tournament, sparing an NIT bubble team.

Fun Fact: The Sun Belt tournament only invites the Top 8 teams and gives the Top 2 a double-bye, meaning they only need to win twice to go dancing.

OVC does the same. I'm highly in favor of CUSA doing this. Realistically no team outside the top 8 has a shot at winning the tournament, it gives a greater reward to finishing at the top of your conference, and it increases the chances that one of the best teams represents the conference in the NCAA tournament.

Sun Belt also does their tournament Thurs-Sunday with all games on the weekdays starting at 5:00 PM or later.