(02-21-2016 07:18 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:02 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  They're going to loose Cincy and Memphis and get UMass and Marshall.

Real deal.

I have very valid concerns as to whether or not Marshall can compete without NQs... which the AAC will not allow

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Nobody is going to leave the MWC or MAC and Marshall has better fan support and name than the other options.
Former conference mates, few rivals, and not a bad market.
Read some where that Marshall's home opener last year had more viewers than any CUSA game ever. Always have 30,000+ come out to see decent opponents in football and had 8,000+ show up in basketball last night.

(02-21-2016 08:39 PM)GreenWave16 Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:07 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC could see 4 to 6 schools taken.

Southern Mississippi is in a much better populated area than Ole Miss and Miss. State alone. Jackson is not far from there. Southern Mississippi was in the same conferences with some of the AAC before C-USA was formed.

La. Tech have a history at the top level at the FBS level, but the question is that they are in the middle of 2 tv markets.

Northern Illinois have a much better football product than Tulane, and they get better ratings than Tulane to boot.

What none of you people seem to realize is the only two things that matter in this realignment world is markets and academics. Wins and losses mean nothing, NIU and USM could go undefeated for ten years and Tulane could not win a game for ten years and we would get picked first every single time. We have both, we are superior, we are the more appealing program and always will be. That is the beauty of college athletics.

(02-21-2016 08:48 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:18 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:02 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  They're going to loose Cincy and Memphis and get UMass and Marshall.

Real deal.

I have very valid concerns as to whether or not Marshall can compete without NQs... which the AAC will not allow

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

Nobody is going to leave the MWC or MAC and Marshall has better fan support and name than the other options.
Former conference mates, few rivals, and not a bad market.
Read some where that Marshall's home opener last year had more viewers than any CUSA game ever. Always have 30,000+ come out to see decent opponents in football and had 8,000+ show up in basketball last night.

I'd be very surprised to see Marshall in the AAC.

(02-21-2016 06:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:07 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 05:52 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Me too. Personally, I think a Western Wing should include UNLV. That, IMO, would most closely fit the MO of the conference.

(02-21-2016 05:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 05:41 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  If its on the internets it must be true.

How about these?

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 18

Just heard the AAC has reached out to BYU, Boise St, SDSU, and Colorado St in regards to joining after defections of UC/Uconn. #dejavu

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 18

AAC offering a $5m signing bonus per school to join if all 4 come together

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

Fwiw my AAC contact says TV deal can get better not just stay the same with additions of the 4 I mentioned yesterday.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

AAC also exploring a conference network model that could add several million to the yearly pot of $.nowhere near the P5 but (cont)

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

(Cont)would be partnered with CBS and would allow cbs to buy more AAC content off of ESPN and increase their profile in sports programming

Honestly, as far fetched as it is, that fits the past pattern much better than the LaTech/SMiss/WKU/NIU stuff. Now, the reality is BYU aint coming---they make more on their own and have an entirely different agenda from your typical school. So that aint happening.

Boise has a sweetheart deal in the MWC, so I don't see them bailing.

What might could work is to float that same deal to the front range schools. Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming, and New Mexico. All 4 of those schools are solid institutional fits for the AAC. They are all USNWR top 200 schools. Three of the 4 have budgets that are near the middle of the AAC range (Wyoming is on the low side at 32 million---which is still at least 20% higher than any candidate mentioned in the OP). Three of the 4 offer solid basketball programs. To me, this it is the kind of thing the AAC would need to do if they were serious about moving west and maintaining the quality of the league. The 4 schools have long standing rivalries and would be able to keep them, while still getting better tv exposure and landing in a conference where everyone shares the revenue equally.

Let me ask you something, would the AAC adding, say NIU and USM or LaTech be the worst thing to ever happen to the AAC? Let's say hypothetically, you heard the move was happening. NIU and USM being added. No AAC defections. What is your immediate thought and reactions? Now same question, only this time UCONN and UC are B12 bound. What are your thoughts? I'm just curious, trying to understand the mindset.

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lol....Im not going to kill myself or anything---its just football. LaTech, SMiss, and NIU might make for some entertaining games.

Im simply looking at it from the prospective of what the AAC has done in the past. They chose small highly ranked academic schools over larger publics with more accomplished football programs. In some ways that was a mistake and is one reason we did worse than we should have in capturing bowls slots in the west. Too many small private schools and too few large enrollment public schools.

My point is I think that academics will be a factor in these decisions. LaTech. SMiss, WKU, NIU--none are top 200 USNWP schools. The presidents in the past also chose schools with large athletic budgets. None of the schools mentioned have large athletics budgets--in fact, most of those in the OP are the very low side for FBS.

Who knows? Maybe this Figerelli kid is right and the AAC is simply throwing out their old metrics because TV is telling them to do something completely different. Frankly, that is entirely possible.

If you're referring to the US News Rankings for National Universities, Louisiana Tech is within the Top 200. I don't believe any of the other schools are.

(02-21-2016 08:24 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:07 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 05:52 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Me too. Personally, I think a Western Wing should include UNLV. That, IMO, would most closely fit the MO of the conference.

(02-21-2016 05:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 05:41 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  If its on the internets it must be true.

How about these?

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 18

Just heard the AAC has reached out to BYU, Boise St, SDSU, and Colorado St in regards to joining after defections of UC/Uconn. #dejavu

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 18

AAC offering a $5m signing bonus per school to join if all 4 come together

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

Fwiw my AAC contact says TV deal can get better not just stay the same with additions of the 4 I mentioned yesterday.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

AAC also exploring a conference network model that could add several million to the yearly pot of $.nowhere near the P5 but (cont)

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

(Cont)would be partnered with CBS and would allow cbs to buy more AAC content off of ESPN and increase their profile in sports programming

Honestly, as far fetched as it is, that fits the past pattern much better than the LaTech/SMiss/WKU/NIU stuff. Now, the reality is BYU aint coming---they make more on their own and have an entirely different agenda from your typical school. So that aint happening.

Boise has a sweetheart deal in the MWC, so I don't see them bailing.

What might could work is to float that same deal to the front range schools. Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming, and New Mexico. All 4 of those schools are solid institutional fits for the AAC. They are all USNWR top 200 schools. Three of the 4 have budgets that are near the middle of the AAC range (Wyoming is on the low side at 32 million---which is still at least 20% higher than any candidate mentioned in the OP). Three of the 4 offer solid basketball programs. To me, this it is the kind of thing the AAC would need to do if they were serious about moving west and maintaining the quality of the league. The 4 schools have long standing rivalries and would be able to keep them, while still getting better tv exposure and landing in a conference where everyone shares the revenue equally.

Let me ask you something, would the AAC adding, say NIU and USM or LaTech be the worst thing to ever happen to the AAC? Let's say hypothetically, you heard the move was happening. NIU and USM being added. No AAC defections. What is your immediate thought and reactions? Now same question, only this time UCONN and UC are B12 bound. What are your thoughts? I'm just curious, trying to understand the mindset.

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lol....Im not going to kill myself or anything---its just football. LaTech, SMiss, and NIU might make for some entertaining games.

Im simply looking at it from the prospective of what the AAC has done in the past. They chose small highly ranked academic schools over larger publics with more accomplished football programs. In some ways that was a mistake and is one reason we did worse than we should have in capturing bowls slots in the west. Too many small private schools and too few large enrollment public schools.

My point is I think that academics will be a factor in these decisions. LaTech. SMiss, WKU, NIU--none are top 200 USNWP schools. The presidents in the past also chose schools with large athletic budgets. None of the schools mentioned have large athletics budgets--in fact, most of those in the OP are the very low side for FBS.

Who knows? Maybe this Figerelli kid is right and the AAC is simply throwing out their old metrics because TV is telling them to do something completely different. Frankly, that is entirely possible.

It is TV metrics and the ratings that determines the expansions of the conferences. The ACC, Big 12 and PAC 12 is having issues right now because some schools in those conferences do not hold their own right now. If Tennessee rules the Nashville market? Why keep Vanderbilt? They could send Vanderbilt to the Big 10, and add someone else for replacement.

East Carolina does get better tv rankings than some of the ACC North Carolina schools. Which is why they are in the running for a P5 slot.

Boise State and BYU are sure shots in the west alongside Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico, San Diego State and Fresno State. UNLV, Hawaii and UNR also get some good ratings when they go on a run.

AAC have schools not performing well with the ratings. UConn, Tulane and Tulsa.

La. Tech, Southern Mississppi, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Toledo, Bowling Green, Ohio U., Arkansas State, La.-Lafayette, and Northern Illinois does have better ratings at time.

North Dakota State, Montana, Jacksonville State, James Madison and Eastern Washington are schools on the rise that could do well in the ratings. So does UTSA.

Rice also do well in tv ratings as well since they are a name brand from the SWC days.

Teams that are performing poorly don't do well in the ratings---period.

In general, the CUSA schools did pretty poorly in the ratings this year. A team like W Kentucky isn't going to draw any better than Tulane when they are sporting Tulane's crappy record. Markets help, but less than you think (especially if there is no conference network to monetize the market with carriage fees).

The way I see markets helping is this---in conference play, for every loser there is a winner. Thus, half of your conference is going to be winners every year and half your conference is going to be losers. Half the markets where the local team is winning will have good ratings and the other half where the local team is losing will have ho-hum ratings. But if ALL your teams are in big markets---then the network is always going to have 6 teams performing well, getting good ratings, in 6 BIG markets. That's better than have 6 teams performing well in 6 tiny markets. That's where I see the market strategy helping to some extent.

(02-21-2016 09:57 PM)RonBurgundy Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:07 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 05:52 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Me too. Personally, I think a Western Wing should include UNLV. That, IMO, would most closely fit the MO of the conference.

(02-21-2016 05:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 05:41 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  If its on the internets it must be true.

How about these?

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 18

Just heard the AAC has reached out to BYU, Boise St, SDSU, and Colorado St in regards to joining after defections of UC/Uconn. #dejavu

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 18

AAC offering a $5m signing bonus per school to join if all 4 come together

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

Fwiw my AAC contact says TV deal can get better not just stay the same with additions of the 4 I mentioned yesterday.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

AAC also exploring a conference network model that could add several million to the yearly pot of $.nowhere near the P5 but (cont)

MHver3 ‏@MHver3 · Feb 19

(Cont)would be partnered with CBS and would allow cbs to buy more AAC content off of ESPN and increase their profile in sports programming

Honestly, as far fetched as it is, that fits the past pattern much better than the LaTech/SMiss/WKU/NIU stuff. Now, the reality is BYU aint coming---they make more on their own and have an entirely different agenda from your typical school. So that aint happening.

Boise has a sweetheart deal in the MWC, so I don't see them bailing.

What might could work is to float that same deal to the front range schools. Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming, and New Mexico. All 4 of those schools are solid institutional fits for the AAC. They are all USNWR top 200 schools. Three of the 4 have budgets that are near the middle of the AAC range (Wyoming is on the low side at 32 million---which is still at least 20% higher than any candidate mentioned in the OP). Three of the 4 offer solid basketball programs. To me, this it is the kind of thing the AAC would need to do if they were serious about moving west and maintaining the quality of the league. The 4 schools have long standing rivalries and would be able to keep them, while still getting better tv exposure and landing in a conference where everyone shares the revenue equally.

Let me ask you something, would the AAC adding, say NIU and USM or LaTech be the worst thing to ever happen to the AAC? Let's say hypothetically, you heard the move was happening. NIU and USM being added. No AAC defections. What is your immediate thought and reactions? Now same question, only this time UCONN and UC are B12 bound. What are your thoughts? I'm just curious, trying to understand the mindset.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

lol....Im not going to kill myself or anything---its just football. LaTech, SMiss, and NIU might make for some entertaining games.

Im simply looking at it from the prospective of what the AAC has done in the past. They chose small highly ranked academic schools over larger publics with more accomplished football programs. In some ways that was a mistake and is one reason we did worse than we should have in capturing bowls slots in the west. Too many small private schools and too few large enrollment public schools.

My point is I think that academics will be a factor in these decisions. LaTech. SMiss, WKU, NIU--none are top 200 USNWP schools. The presidents in the past also chose schools with large athletic budgets. None of the schools mentioned have large athletics budgets--in fact, most of those in the OP are the very low side for FBS.

Who knows? Maybe this Figerelli kid is right and the AAC is simply throwing out their old metrics because TV is telling them to do something completely different. Frankly, that is entirely possible.

If you're referring to the US News Rankings for National Universities, Louisiana Tech is within the Top 200. I don't believe any of the other schools are.

Ha---you are correct! Number 199! I must have been looking at a dated list. So LaTech would actually be an academic fit. The budget is way low, and given the Louisiana financial issues, I don't see it increasing much soon. That said, the Bulldogs have been fun to watch on the field.

(02-21-2016 09:20 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 08:48 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:18 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:02 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  They're going to loose Cincy and Memphis and get UMass and Marshall.

Real deal.

I have very valid concerns as to whether or not Marshall can compete without NQs... which the AAC will not allow

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

Nobody is going to leave the MWC or MAC and Marshall has better fan support and name than the other options.
Former conference mates, few rivals, and not a bad market.
Read some where that Marshall's home opener last year had more viewers than any CUSA game ever. Always have 30,000+ come out to see decent opponents in football and had 8,000+ show up in basketball last night.

I'd be very surprised to see Marshall in the AAC.

They won't be.

(02-21-2016 11:12 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 09:20 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  I'd be very surprised to see Marshall in the AAC.

They won't be.

Only way it happens is if half of AAC's current members leave first. And even then I still wouldn't bet on it.

Tulane....lol

(02-21-2016 11:45 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  Tulane....lol

Something we agree on haha

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(02-21-2016 11:45 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  Tulane....lol

To be clear, I certainly agree with you about Tulane, but not about Marshall's AAC chances.

(02-21-2016 07:02 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  They're going to loose Cincy and Memphis and get UMass and Marshall.

Real deal.

I am sure the AAC is captivated by UMass' 11,000 home attendance in 2015, which IIRC is an improvement. I don't know which is more impressive about UMass -- their 8-40 record in football over the last four years, their 12-14 basketball record this year (good for 10th in their conference) or that they have made the NCAA tournament once in this century.

/sarcasmoff

(02-21-2016 08:39 PM)GreenWave16 Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:07 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC could see 4 to 6 schools taken.

Southern Mississippi is in a much better populated area than Ole Miss and Miss. State alone. Jackson is not far from there. Southern Mississippi was in the same conferences with some of the AAC before C-USA was formed.

La. Tech have a history at the top level at the FBS level, but the question is that they are in the middle of 2 tv markets.

Northern Illinois have a much better football product than Tulane, and they get better ratings than Tulane to boot.

What none of you people seem to realize is the only two things that matter in this realignment world is markets and academics. Wins and losses mean nothing, NIU and USM could go undefeated for ten years and Tulane could not win a game for ten years and we would get picked first every single time. We have both, we are superior, we are the more appealing program and always will be. That is the beauty of college athletics.

Just shut the hell up.

How come the trolls have to be Tulane "fans"? It's getting kind of old.

(02-22-2016 01:56 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 08:39 PM)GreenWave16 Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:07 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC could see 4 to 6 schools taken.

Southern Mississippi is in a much better populated area than Ole Miss and Miss. State alone. Jackson is not far from there. Southern Mississippi was in the same conferences with some of the AAC before C-USA was formed.

La. Tech have a history at the top level at the FBS level, but the question is that they are in the middle of 2 tv markets.

Northern Illinois have a much better football product than Tulane, and they get better ratings than Tulane to boot.

What none of you people seem to realize is the only two things that matter in this realignment world is markets and academics. Wins and losses mean nothing, NIU and USM could go undefeated for ten years and Tulane could not win a game for ten years and we would get picked first every single time. We have both, we are superior, we are the more appealing program and always will be. That is the beauty of college athletics.

Just shut the hell up.

How come the trolls have to be Tulane "fans"? It's getting kind of old.

We just disregard what he says and laugh about it, i don't hold any ill will toward Tulane

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(02-22-2016 01:37 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:02 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  They're going to loose Cincy and Memphis and get UMass and Marshall.

Real deal.

I am sure the AAC is captivated by UMass' 11,000 home attendance in 2015, which IIRC is an improvement. I don't know which is more impressive about UMass -- their 8-40 record in football over the last four years, their 12-14 basketball record this year (good for 10th in their conference) or that they have made the NCAA tournament once in this century.

/sarcasmoff

The same could be said about a few programs already in the AAC. TV Markets over performance and fan support. It's dumb but that's been the pattern in the past.

(02-22-2016 02:48 AM)polkhigh Wrote:  

(02-22-2016 01:37 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 07:02 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  They're going to loose Cincy and Memphis and get UMass and Marshall.

Real deal.

I am sure the AAC is captivated by UMass' 11,000 home attendance in 2015, which IIRC is an improvement. I don't know which is more impressive about UMass -- their 8-40 record in football over the last four years, their 12-14 basketball record this year (good for 10th in their conference) or that they have made the NCAA tournament once in this century.

/sarcasmoff

The same could be said about a few programs already in the AAC. TV Markets over performance and fan support. It's dumb but that's been the pattern in the past.

So basically NIU is a very likely candidate

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(02-22-2016 01:56 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 08:39 PM)GreenWave16 Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:07 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC could see 4 to 6 schools taken.

Southern Mississippi is in a much better populated area than Ole Miss and Miss. State alone. Jackson is not far from there. Southern Mississippi was in the same conferences with some of the AAC before C-USA was formed.

La. Tech have a history at the top level at the FBS level, but the question is that they are in the middle of 2 tv markets.

Northern Illinois have a much better football product than Tulane, and they get better ratings than Tulane to boot.

What none of you people seem to realize is the only two things that matter in this realignment world is markets and academics. Wins and losses mean nothing, NIU and USM could go undefeated for ten years and Tulane could not win a game for ten years and we would get picked first every single time. We have both, we are superior, we are the more appealing program and always will be. That is the beauty of college athletics.

Just shut the hell up.

How come the trolls have to be Tulane "fans"? It's getting kind of old.

“Well, what are their academics? What’s their research base? How well do they fit our academic profile? How well do they fit our fan base profile? How many dollars in their market do they bring to the table? We’re looking at all that. In terms of the network and those dollars, we’re looking with our TV consultants to tell us.”

That is a direct quote from Boren the Oklahoma President, sure doesn't sound like he gives a flip how many games anybody has won over the years or how many conference championships they have. Pretty clear what only matters in realignment.

Isn't Tulane already in the AAC last time I checked? I've advocated for their Big 12 inclusion as well but as number 14... if not 16. I think the Big 12 would take the Fla pair over Tulane/Memphis/ECU.

(02-21-2016 07:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 06:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-21-2016 12:46 PM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  I always felt that if AAC looses two team, then the next up are NIU and S Miss.

Yes, those two make the most sense. USM is in our footprint and helps bridge the slight geo gap with Tulane, and NIU has built a nice program.

Sure on paper it would be better to get BYU and CSU, but no MWC schools are coming to the AAC.

There are schools that fit the mold, but are not quite ready. With the new CCG rules, there is really no need to feel compelled to get to 12 simply for the sake of having 12.

Agreed. But I also think there's a sense that 12 provides more stability than a lesser number. It can go both ways.

Also, there's a perverse advantage to having small dollars - the pie is already split so thinly that splitting it even more thinly doesn't matter so much. E.g., if a conference gets $20m per year media and there are 10 schools, that's $2m per school. At 12 schools, it is $1.7m per school. Yes, that's less, but is $300k really a big reason to not expand? Maybe, maybe not.

(02-21-2016 12:29 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  Tweet from @FigurelliSports:
NIU, W. Kentucky, S. Miss and La Tech have all been contacted by the AAC. S. Miss is the legit option that I know of

A tweet earlier from him:
Just had a 3rd party (SB nation) confirm what I said about S. Miss, NIU, Memphis, CSU and etc. more details to come from @SBNation myself

Or is this a move to expand the league? Do they wanna go 14-16 teams in the AAC?

Obviously this means nothing is guaranteed, but where there is smoke...

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This seems to be pretty far fetched. The only one mentioned that has any shot whatsoever is USM, they need to increase their budget to have a better shot. No offense to NIU, LT or WKY, but they have some major facility and budget hurdles to overcome. Tulane would block LT (there is a reason they weren't invited to CUSA in 2004-2005) and has a small budget, WKY has a very small stadium and not sure of their budget, NIU has a lot of work to do with their stadium etc. Not that is matters a whole lot due to attendance being low at each one of those. Competitiveness of a program only counts for a small percentage.

USM has the foundation for a move to the AAC, as well as Marshall and a few others. Not that its going to happen, but seeing the other candidates mentioned will make you scratch your head enough to go bald all things considered.