(12-18-2015 11:47 AM)owl95 Wrote: (12-18-2015 11:31 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote: Any revised projections for this year? 10 wins? 15? More?
I'm sticking with my preseason prediction of 16 wins.
In the
MBB pre-season prediction thread,
I predicted 18+ wins. Really I was predicting 18 wins, but noting that I felt a little more optimistic about that number than pessimistic.
Given Rice's performance to date, coupled with Pollard's transfer and the uncertain injury return status of Jackson and Lott, I certainly have to back off my optimism. Not sure I'm ready to back off the 18-win prediction though.
Obviously Rice at 4-6 is behind that pace. Rice's results so far (using KenPom's rankings):
#49 Oregon St - L
#57 Cal - L
#85 UTA - L
#95 Fresno St - L
#203 UC Riverside - W
#230 San Fran - L
#280 Lamar - W
#312 HBU - L
NR St. Edwards - W
NR St. Thomas - W
So far, Rice has been pretty bad, with wins only against bad teams and losses against 2 bad teams. The upshot is that the schedule is getting easier:
#44 New Mexico
#266 S. Alabama
#228 Incarnate Word
#185 UTEP
#325 UTSA
#320 N. Texas
#161 WKU
#235 Marshall
#108 UAB
#100 MTSU
I believe the team is improving and that the improvement will happen a little faster than last season, since half the team has been in the system. So assuming Rice takes care of business against the weakest teams (which sadly hasn't happened so far, and thus is more of a hopeful assumption than a safe one), we get 5 wins against teams ranked worse than #228. I'll predict 3 losses against the teams ranked better than #108 and give Rice a legit shot against UTEP & WKU. So Rice is looking at 6 wins in the next 1/3 season if they can beat either UTEP or WKU and otherwise take care of business.
And the final 1/3 of the season:
#320 N. Texas
#112 LaTech
#296 So. Miss
#304 Charlotte
#102 ODU
#277 FAU
#287 FIU
#296 So. Miss
#112 LaTech
#304 Charlotte
#102 ODU
Again, the schedule is looking even easier, the freshman will be more experienced, and there is at least a chance we might get Jackson and/or Lott back. Maybe even some depth from the football team (any rumors on this?)? Rice can get 7 wins against teams ranked worse than #277, but the other 4 games are against #102 ODU and #112 LaTech. I'm hoping for at least 1 win in those 4 games, which would give Rice 8 wins in the final 1/3.
4 + 6 + 8 = 18 wins. So Rice can still meet my pre-season prediction by beating all teams ranked #228 or worse, then winning 2 of the other 9 games against teams ranked #44 to #185.
I think a safer prediction would be 15 or 16 wins. But I will stick with 18 now because I'm drinking the Kool-Aid.
And holy heck is CUSA
TERRIBLE. 8 teams ranked #235 or worse, the remaining 6 teams ranked #100 to #185. Apparently zero shot at being a 2-bid league. The worst thing is, CUSA's horribleness makes it tough for Rice to improve its RPI, even assuming the team improves and starts winning more games. And that will affect Rice's ability to schedule decent teams, including in-state opponents like UT, next season.
For comparison, the the AAC and MWC have 5 teams ranked above the best CUSA team. CUSA is a dumpster fire, and so far Rice has been toward the bottom of the dumpster in both football and men's basketball this year.
