(11-29-2015 05:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  My guess: if UNC upsets Clemson, the ACC simply doesn't get a playoff spot at all. That S Carolina loss, combined with 2 FCS wins, essentially hamstrings UNC. Add to that the fact that Ohio State will be sitting there in case of a playoff opening and the Tar Heels have basically ZERO shot at the playoffs this year. It is what it is.

Compare the resumes of Ohio State isn't superior to UNC's if the Tar Heels beat Clemson.

I don't think the committee wants to get into letting in teams with similar profiles over conference champions yet.

As far as Stanford goes, the USC win won't hold much weight vs a win over Clemson.

The Trojans would be a 4-loss team and unranked if they lose. Clemson will still be in the top 10.

We'll know Tuesday...

If UNC reaches 7th or 8th they have a very real shot to make it. If they are sitting 10th or higher the committee will have already made their decision.

(11-29-2015 08:13 PM)GTTiger Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 05:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  My guess: if UNC upsets Clemson, the ACC simply doesn't get a playoff spot at all. That S Carolina loss, combined with 2 FCS wins, essentially hamstrings UNC. Add to that the fact that Ohio State will be sitting there in case of a playoff opening and the Tar Heels have basically ZERO shot at the playoffs this year. It is what it is.

Compare the resumes of Ohio State isn't superior to UNC's if the Tar Heels beat Clemson.

I don't think the committee wants to get into letting in teams with similar profiles over conference champions yet.

As far as Stanford goes, the USC win won't hold much weight vs a win over Clemson.

The Trojans would be a 4-loss team and unranked if they lose. Clemson will still be in the top 10.

We'll know Tuesday...

If UNC reaches 7th or 8th they have a very real shot to make it. If they are sitting 10th or higher the committee will have already made their decision.

Actually, if USC loses, they would be a 5-loss team.

I don't see Ohio State getting in. If NC beats Clemson I think it would come down to NC, Stanford & Clemson for the 4th spot. Ohio St SOS is currently 35 with NC at 43, before adding Clemson. Stanford however is 16 with Clemson at 20. There isn't anything in Ohio State favor. I would like to see NC get it but I think Stanford would be the pick. If Bama loses then you would likely see the ACC champ & Stanford in. If both Bama & Stanford also lose, could NC & Clemson both make it in?

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo...h-by-other

If Standford wins PAC 10, they would get in over UNC.

I don't see how you can take UNC over Clemson if you look at total resume even if UNC beats Clemson. Based on total resume, Clemson should get in, especially if Oklahoama and Michigan State are getting in with bad losses and Alabama losing a home game. Olkahoam also didn't have to play an extra game against a good team in a title game.

I would take Ohio State over UNC b/c they had a last second loss by a FG to a good MSU team while UNC lost to SC.

Also Clemson beat SC at SC, UNC lost on a neutral field. ANd Clemson looked better in other common opponents than UNC, Miami and G Tech.

Stanford will not beat USC. USC is not an easy out even with its losses. They just are too talented and I believe they have started to come out of the funk created with all of that turmoil earlier.

(11-29-2015 08:32 PM)ClemVegas Wrote:  If Standford wins PAC 10, they would get in over UNC.

I don't see how you can take UNC over Clemson if you look at total resume even if UNC beats Clemson. Based on total resume, Clemson should get in, especially if Oklahoama and Michigan State are getting in with bad losses and Alabama losing a home game. Olkahoam also didn't have to play an extra game against a good team in a title game.

I would take Ohio State over UNC b/c they had a last second loss by a FG to a good MSU team while UNC lost to SC.

Also Clemson beat SC at SC, UNC lost on a neutral field. ANd Clemson looked better in other common opponents than UNC, Miami and G Tech.

Winning the conference counts for the most according to the playoff committee, or so I understand. So that alone would bump OSU and Clemson down.

that's odd b/c in colege basketball, they don't penalize teams with good record and high SOS for losing in their conference tourneys. they look at overall resume. I beleive Clemson is the regular season champ of ACC. FSU and Lousville are both capable of beating UNC.

SC only has 3 wins, one of those is UNC. I don't believe a top 4 team losing to a 3loss team on a neutral field.

i blieve UNC would have to beat Clemson by at least 3 TDs to be considered strongly for playoffs. could be wrong.

there is def. more pressure on Clemson than UNC in this game though.

good thing is Clemson offense is rolling 8 straight game with 500 yards or more on offense and UNC isn't good against the run. if don't turn the ball over should score about 45 points at min.

The two FCS games and the brain dead performance at SC kills it for UNC.

If you look at the four common foes that UNC and Clemson had:

NC State (UNC 45-34) (CU 56-41)
GT (UNC 38-31) (CU 43-24)
Miami (UNC 59-21) (CU 58-0)
WF (50-14) (CU 33-13)

Clemson average winning margin 28 points.
UNC average winning margin 23 points.

Clemson average points given up 19.5
UNC average points given up 25

On paper, Clemson looks to be 11 points better but it will come down to what happens in the 4th. Clemson sort of dozes off in the 4th, and UNC has not had to come from behind in the 4th against a good team.



I wonder how long time UNC fans feel about this year's one loss team. I give it a 6 on the all time scale for UNC:

1. 1929 9-1 Loss To Georgia 19-12
2. 1922 9-1 Loss to Yale 18-0
3. 1972 11-1 Loss to Ohio State 14-29 (Bill Dooley's high water mark)
4. 1997 11-1 Loss to FSU 20-3 (Mack Brown's high water mark)
5. 1914 10-1 Loss to Virginia 20-3
6. 2015 11-1 Lost to horrible USC team (Fedora's high water mark)
7. 1980 11-1 Loss to Oklahoma 41-7 (Dick Crum's high water mark)
8. 1935 8-1 Loss to Duke 25-0
9. 1948 9-1-1 Loss to Georgia 14-6 in Sugar Bowl, tied William and Mary (Choo Justice Yeas)
10. 1939 8-1-1 Loss to Duke 13-3, tied Tulane
11. 1934 7-1-1 Loss to Tennessee 19-7, tied NC State

In the Pre-WWII era Carolina had some great teams in the 20's and 30's, but were almost always one game behind Duke
Post war from 1945 until the 800 SAT rule kicked in in 1962, the Choo Choo Justice years were the only highlight
In the modern era, I think Bill Dooley came closest to perfection. UNC had a chance against Ohio State, while Crum and company were killed at OU, and Brown never could get around FSU. An upset on Saturday would relegate Dooley to second in the modern era in my mind.

Here are the latest title odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, courtesy of ESPN:

Title Odds

Alabama: 6-5
Oklahoma: 5-2
Clemson: 5-1
Michigan State: 8-1
Ohio State: 15-1
Iowa: 20-1
North Carolina: 30-1
Stanford: 40-1

Keep in mind these are made with the assumption that OU is already in the playoff semi's, and Bama is a 17 point favorite this weekend. Clemson on the other hand has to play this weekend as only a five point favorite. If CU wins the ACC, I'd expect their title odds to more closely mirror the current top two. I still say Bama will be the odds-on favorite assuming they take care of UF.

(11-30-2015 02:44 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  The two FCS games and the brain dead performance at SC kills it for UNC.

If you look at the four common foes that UNC and Clemson had:

NC State (UNC 45-34) (CU 56-41)
GT (UNC 38-31) (CU 43-24)
Miami (UNC 59-21) (CU 58-0)
WF (50-14) (CU 33-13)

Clemson average winning margin 28 points.
UNC average winning margin 23 points.

Clemson average points given up 19.5
UNC average points given up 25

On paper, Clemson looks to be 11 points better but it will come down to what happens in the 4th. Clemson sort of dozes off in the 4th, and UNC has not had to come from behind in the 4th against a good team.



I wonder how long time UNC fans feel about this year's one loss team. I give it a 6 on the all time scale for UNC:

1. 1929 9-1 Loss To Georgia 19-12
2. 1922 9-1 Loss to Yale 18-0
3. 1972 11-1 Loss to Ohio State 14-29 (Bill Dooley's high water mark)
4. 1997 11-1 Loss to FSU 20-3 (Mack Brown's high water mark)
5. 1914 10-1 Loss to Virginia 20-3
6. 2015 11-1 Lost to horrible USC team (Fedora's high water mark)
7. 1980 11-1 Loss to Oklahoma 41-7 (Dick Crum's high water mark)
8. 1935 8-1 Loss to Duke 25-0
9. 1948 9-1-1 Loss to Georgia 14-6 in Sugar Bowl, tied William and Mary (Choo Justice Yeas)
10. 1939 8-1-1 Loss to Duke 13-3, tied Tulane
11. 1934 7-1-1 Loss to Tennessee 19-7, tied NC State

In the Pre-WWII era Carolina had some great teams in the 20's and 30's, but were almost always one game behind Duke
Post war from 1945 until the 800 SAT rule kicked in in 1962, the Choo Choo Justice years were the only highlight
In the modern era, I think Bill Dooley came closest to perfection. UNC had a chance against Ohio State, while Crum and company were killed at OU, and Brown never could get around FSU. An upset on Saturday would relegate Dooley to second in the modern era in my mind.

You're double counting defense (you're comparing margin, which takes into account defense and offense and defense - that's defense twice). On paper, the spread is about 5.5.

(11-30-2015 03:34 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 02:44 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  The two FCS games and the brain dead performance at SC kills it for UNC.

If you look at the four common foes that UNC and Clemson had:

NC State (UNC 45-34) (CU 56-41)
GT (UNC 38-31) (CU 43-24)
Miami (UNC 59-21) (CU 58-0)
WF (50-14) (CU 33-13)

Clemson average winning margin 28 points.
UNC average winning margin 23 points.

Clemson average points given up 19.5
UNC average points given up 25

On paper, Clemson looks to be 11 points better but it will come down to what happens in the 4th. Clemson sort of dozes off in the 4th, and UNC has not had to come from behind in the 4th against a good team.



I wonder how long time UNC fans feel about this year's one loss team. I give it a 6 on the all time scale for UNC:

1. 1929 9-1 Loss To Georgia 19-12
2. 1922 9-1 Loss to Yale 18-0
3. 1972 11-1 Loss to Ohio State 14-29 (Bill Dooley's high water mark)
4. 1997 11-1 Loss to FSU 20-3 (Mack Brown's high water mark)
5. 1914 10-1 Loss to Virginia 20-3
6. 2015 11-1 Lost to horrible USC team (Fedora's high water mark)
7. 1980 11-1 Loss to Oklahoma 41-7 (Dick Crum's high water mark)
8. 1935 8-1 Loss to Duke 25-0
9. 1948 9-1-1 Loss to Georgia 14-6 in Sugar Bowl, tied William and Mary (Choo Justice Yeas)
10. 1939 8-1-1 Loss to Duke 13-3, tied Tulane
11. 1934 7-1-1 Loss to Tennessee 19-7, tied NC State

In the Pre-WWII era Carolina had some great teams in the 20's and 30's, but were almost always one game behind Duke
Post war from 1945 until the 800 SAT rule kicked in in 1962, the Choo Choo Justice years were the only highlight
In the modern era, I think Bill Dooley came closest to perfection. UNC had a chance against Ohio State, while Crum and company were killed at OU, and Brown never could get around FSU. An upset on Saturday would relegate Dooley to second in the modern era in my mind.

You're double counting defense (you're comparing margin, which takes into account defense and offense and defense - that's defense twice). On paper, the spread is about 5.5.

I can see how you can get that by giving equal weight to WF, a game where Clemson called off the dogs early and UNC did not.

Clemson was 2 points better than UNC over NC State. Clemson was 12 points better over GT than UNC. Clemson was 20 points better than UNC over Miami. Clemson was 9 points better over South Carolina than UNC. If you aren't using the outlier, you get about 11 points. South Carolina, GT, and NC State are three games where a blowout and a laydown did not happen. If we just use those games we get an 8 point differential. Taken together I think the empirical evidences tends to support that Clemson is at least 10 points better than UNC. Not that Clemson will win mind you, but that's what the evidence suggests. Just adding everything to get a number works only if there are transitive properties in football scores.

I think Clemson is at least 10 points better on offense. I think they are a little better on defense. I also know they go to sleep sometimes in the 4th quarter - that's where UNC might catch them.

(11-30-2015 04:35 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 03:34 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 02:44 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  The two FCS games and the brain dead performance at SC kills it for UNC.

If you look at the four common foes that UNC and Clemson had:

NC State (UNC 45-34) (CU 56-41)
GT (UNC 38-31) (CU 43-24)
Miami (UNC 59-21) (CU 58-0)
WF (50-14) (CU 33-13)

Clemson average winning margin 28 points.
UNC average winning margin 23 points.

Clemson average points given up 19.5
UNC average points given up 25

On paper, Clemson looks to be 11 points better but it will come down to what happens in the 4th. Clemson sort of dozes off in the 4th, and UNC has not had to come from behind in the 4th against a good team.



I wonder how long time UNC fans feel about this year's one loss team. I give it a 6 on the all time scale for UNC:

1. 1929 9-1 Loss To Georgia 19-12
2. 1922 9-1 Loss to Yale 18-0
3. 1972 11-1 Loss to Ohio State 14-29 (Bill Dooley's high water mark)
4. 1997 11-1 Loss to FSU 20-3 (Mack Brown's high water mark)
5. 1914 10-1 Loss to Virginia 20-3
6. 2015 11-1 Lost to horrible USC team (Fedora's high water mark)
7. 1980 11-1 Loss to Oklahoma 41-7 (Dick Crum's high water mark)
8. 1935 8-1 Loss to Duke 25-0
9. 1948 9-1-1 Loss to Georgia 14-6 in Sugar Bowl, tied William and Mary (Choo Justice Yeas)
10. 1939 8-1-1 Loss to Duke 13-3, tied Tulane
11. 1934 7-1-1 Loss to Tennessee 19-7, tied NC State

In the Pre-WWII era Carolina had some great teams in the 20's and 30's, but were almost always one game behind Duke
Post war from 1945 until the 800 SAT rule kicked in in 1962, the Choo Choo Justice years were the only highlight
In the modern era, I think Bill Dooley came closest to perfection. UNC had a chance against Ohio State, while Crum and company were killed at OU, and Brown never could get around FSU. An upset on Saturday would relegate Dooley to second in the modern era in my mind.

You're double counting defense (you're comparing margin, which takes into account defense and offense and defense - that's defense twice). On paper, the spread is about 5.5.

I can see how you can get that by giving equal weight to WF, a game where Clemson called off the dogs early and UNC did not.

Clemson was 2 points better than UNC over NC State. Clemson was 12 points better over GT than UNC. Clemson was 20 points better than UNC over Miami. Clemson was 9 points better over South Carolina than UNC. If you aren't using the outlier, you get about 11 points. South Carolina, GT, and NC State are three games where a blowout and a laydown did not happen. If we just use those games we get an 8 point differential. Taken together I think the empirical evidences tends to support that Clemson is at least 10 points better than UNC. Not that Clemson will win mind you, but that's what the evidence suggests. Just adding everything to get a number works only if there are transitive properties in football scores.

I think Clemson is at least 10 points better on offense. I think they are a little better on defense. I also know they go to sleep sometimes in the 4th quarter - that's where UNC might catch them.

You're overthinking what I did. It looked like you took the defense differential (5.5 pts) and the margin differential (5 pts) and added them together (10.5 pts) and rounded up to 11. All I did was not double count defense. That's how I got 5. I didn't do anything complicated or sophisticated like weight games differently.

In the Miami game against UNC, Brad Kaaya played the whole game where he got hurt early against Clemson. Big difference in terms of QB play. Both teams proved Miami didn't belong on the same field. UNC was up 42-0 before the foot was taken off the gas.

I would say UNC dominated NCSU more than Clemson. UNC ran out to a 35-7 first quarter lead and just coasted the rest of the way. Clemson had to battle with State until late in the 3rd quarter.

Wake games are about the same. Wake didn't belong on the field with either of them.

Clemson dominated GT more than UNC.

Clemson SHOULD dominate GT since they play every year.

What UNC did to GT was more impressive since:
a) they DON'T play every year, AND
b) they didn't have a bye week to prepare.

(11-30-2015 05:09 PM)ecuacc4ever Wrote:  Clemson SHOULD dominate GT since they play every year.

What UNC did to GT was more impressive since:
a) they DON'T play every year, AND
b) they didn't have a bye week to prepare.

Ummm. I don't know how to tell you this, but UNC and GT are in the same division. We play every year.

The CFP poll means nothing until the last one comes out.

A school could jump 10 spots one week to the next because the poll resets every week. It makes sense though, if you lose, you drop any number of spots.

Umm.. tell me to stop drinking.

Clemson doesn't really doze in the fourth. If we are up big, we sub players a lot to get playing time for younger guys. As for Watson, in the 4th quarter he is completeing 78% of his pass attempts. He gets better in the 4th quarter.

NC STate won the last 3 quarters 35-10. 35 points in 3 quarters is a lot to give up to a NC State team without its top two runnign backs.

When Kaaya got knocked out of the Clemson game, Clemson was at least up 21. Miami's o-line was getting run over, and they couldn't run the ball. idn't matter who the QB is, and he got knocked out b/c of physical defense.

OK here it is ! UNC, Great season, respect You guys but We need Clemson to win out. Just like last year with GT and FSU. My GT friend at work still won't hardly talk to Me for rooting for FSU. But in the end The League needs to absolutely be in the Final mix.