(11-29-2015 07:16 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: Early prediction for next year: With Bailiff, 3-9; with the right new coach, maybe 6-6.
I agree with that assessment and projection. If DB returns, the results will be even worse than this year given our schedule and returning roster (including a totally inexperienced QB). I'd say 3-9 at best. With a new coach, new philosophy and new energy, it's conceivable we could get to .500 (or another 5 - 7 season), but that would be acceptable as Year 1 in a rebuilding effort.
Walt, I predict this will change. What you are implying is, that if Bailiff stays, and he goes 6-6 next year that will be as good a job as you would believe we would get out of a new coaching hire. Therefore, by this argument, and your statement above, if Bailiff stays and goes 6-6 next year you will think he's done a good job, 3 wins better than your expectations, and as good as or better than your expectations for the expensive new hire we may still get.
In the event that JK keeps DB, is this really what you want to be on record as saying? You sure 3-9 is the best he can do next year with this team?
Expectations are different for a first year head coach versus a tenth year head coach.
(11-29-2015 10:09 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: Come on guys, the 3-9 predictions are crazy. We return 9 starters on both offense and defense? We have PVAM, Army, and UNT, UTEP and UTSA at home for sure. Throw in possibly Charlotte again, and I'll assume one of the Florida schools? 4-8 or 5-7 again is about our bottom with the status quo.
I'll assume also that after three straight years of the same coaching staff, we'll make some coaching changes at the very minimum. I've thrown out his name before, but isn't Tony Levine still just sitting at his house down the street from Bailiff still collecting his UH check? He'd be a nice upgrade as a DC.
Sure, I can see that record, frankly. So, let's say we go 5-7 again...does Bailiff keep his job? Bringing in new coordinators could help, but what coordinator is going to want to come into this situation, knowing that they could be sidling up to a coach that is on the hot seat for 2016?
I cannot believe that after 9 years and multiple OCs and DCs under Bailiff, people still think changing coordinators is going to change the situation. Again, the fish stinks from the head down. The problem is Bailiff, who dictates philosophy, culture and prepation.
(11-29-2015 10:09 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: I'll assume also that after three straight years of the same coaching staff, we'll make some coaching changes at the very minimum. I've thrown out his name before, but isn't Tony Levine still just sitting at his house down the street from Bailiff still collecting his UH check? He'd be a nice upgrade as a DC.
Something like this. If we don't want to spend the dollars on the Bailiff buyout, let's spend on name assistants. Maybe one of them would be an obvious head coach choice in the near future.
(11-29-2015 10:09 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: Come on guys, the 3-9 predictions are crazy. We return 9 starters on both offense and defense? We have PVAM, Army, and UNT, UTEP and UTSA at home for sure. Throw in possibly Charlotte again, and I'll assume one of the Florida schools? 4-8 or 5-7 again is about our bottom with the status quo.
I'll assume also that after three straight years of the same coaching staff, we'll make some coaching changes at the very minimum. I've thrown out his name before, but isn't Tony Levine still just sitting at his house down the street from Bailiff still collecting his UH check? He'd be a nice upgrade as a DC.
Sure, I can see that record, frankly. So, let's say we go 5-7 again...does Bailiff keep his job? Bringing in new coordinators could help, but what coordinator is going to want to come into this situation, knowing that they could be sidling up to a coach that is on the hot seat for 2016?
I cannot believe that after 9 years and multiple OCs and DCs under Bailiff, people still think changing coordinators is going to change the situation. Again, the fish stinks from the head down. The problem is Bailiff, who dictates philosophy, culture and prepation.
Agree. Why are people so "weiner" in nitpicking every statement. Everybody agrees the university has got to put up big time( I would say > 100 million in facilities, and 2 mill a year in salaries above the present) Only a blind person can say the program is headed in the right direction. We cannot even say now that at least we beat all the bad teams . I don't blame Bailiff for 5r0 plus years of problems, but the point is that a seating must occur if they plan to stay Div I.
I bought 4 season tix this year, knowing that I would not make a game. Wish I could afford 4000. I did NOT do it to support DB, but to support the new direction I believe JK has the place going. That is even what I told the person taking my order( ?Jess?).
Ant is correct. The public is voting, not just us . Its great that "Bob" got his only offer from Rice, but that says a lot about the perceived value of many of our recruits. Of course they love DB and their teammates, that's what happens going thru years of ups and downs together.
Quit quibbling about the number of wins (5-7 vs whatever) and accept that big changes are necessary, one way or the other. It can't get worse as far as the public is concerned
(11-29-2015 10:09 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: Come on guys, the 3-9 predictions are crazy. We return 9 starters on both offense and defense? We have PVAM, Army, and UNT, UTEP and UTSA at home for sure. Throw in possibly Charlotte again, and I'll assume one of the Florida schools? 4-8 or 5-7 again is about bottom with the status quo.
We had the key people back from 7-6, added Thor, and went 3-9. I don't think it's all out of the question that we could go 3-9.
Quote:I'll assume also that after three straight years of the same coaching staff, we'll make some coaching changes at the very minimum. I've thrown out his name before, but isn't Tony Levine still just sitting at his house down the street from Bailiff still collecting his UH check? He'd be a nice upgrade as a DC.
(11-29-2015 07:16 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: Early prediction for next year: With Bailiff, 3-9; with the right new coach, maybe 6-6.
If you feel this way, firing him is the only option.
When I was saying not to fire him, I was expecting 7-5 and a bowl, and my point was that you couldn't fire him off 4 straight bowls and winning seasons. I will believe that JK knows better than I and will support him in whatever decision he makes. But I expect a further slide if DB stays.
(11-29-2015 07:16 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: Early prediction for next year: With Bailiff, 3-9; with the right new coach, maybe 6-6.
I agree with that assessment and projection. If DB returns, the results will be even worse than this year given our schedule and returning roster (including a totally inexperienced QB). I'd say 3-9 at best. With a new coach, new philosophy and new energy, it's conceivable we could get to .500 (or another 5 - 7 season), but that would be acceptable as Year 1 in a rebuilding effort.
Walt, I predict this will change. What you are implying is, that if Bailiff stays, and he goes 6-6 next year that will be as good a job as you would believe we would get out of a new coaching hire. Therefore, by this argument, and your statement above, if Bailiff stays and goes 6-6 next year you will think he's done a good job, 3 wins better than your expectations, and as good as or better than your expectations for the expensive new hire we may still get.
In the event that JK keeps DB, is this really what you want to be on record as saying? You sure 3-9 is the best he can do next year with this team?
I'm sure 3-9 is not the best that can be done with this team next year. 3-9 is what I expect DB to do.
(11-29-2015 07:16 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: Early prediction for next year: With Bailiff, 3-9; with the right new coach, maybe 6-6.
I agree with that assessment and projection. If DB returns, the results will be even worse than this year given our schedule and returning roster (including a totally inexperienced QB). I'd say 3-9 at best. With a new coach, new philosophy and new energy, it's conceivable we could get to .500 (or another 5 - 7 season), but that would be acceptable as Year 1 in a rebuilding effort.
Walt, I predict this will change. What you are implying is, that if Bailiff stays, and he goes 6-6 next year that will be as good a job as you would believe we would get out of a new coaching hire. Therefore, by this argument, and your statement above, if Bailiff stays and goes 6-6 next year you will think he's done a good job, 3 wins better than your expectations, and as good as or better than your expectations for the expensive new hire we may still get.
In the event that JK keeps DB, is this really what you want to be on record as saying? You sure 3-9 is the best he can do next year with this team?
I'm sure 3-9 is not the best that can be done with this team next year. 3-9 is what I expect DB to do.
I get that. And you've always been good about giving Bailiff credit when he has exceeded your expectations. I'd be shocked if you didn't do so if it happens again.
My point is that some people will predict Bailiff goes 3-9, and like Walt posted above, state that a new coach would go maybe 5-7, or 6-6. There are some in that group, that IF Bailiff stays, and IF he were to go 6-6 or better next year, will be shouting from the rooftops that he needs to be fired for 6-6 or 7-5.
I've said up front that IF Bailiff stays, he's probably coaching for his job. If Walt is right, 3-9 would not be enough to keep that job.
If Walt is right and 5-7 or 6-6 is the best he thinks a new coach would do, then I'd expect by the same token that a winning season would exceed his expectations for next year, even IF Bailiff were the coach to produce that record. 6-6 would match his expectations for the football team next year, regardless of who is coaching.
As I said, I'm pretty sure what you'd say in that situation. Got no issue with that at all.
(11-29-2015 01:56 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote: 1) Somewhat disagree about the QB part. As poor as Driphus performed this year, I have no reason to suspect that any QB currently on our roster will be better next year. My prediction is that we will miss Driphus terribly next year (along with some others that graduated today, but don't play QB). I will be very pleasantly surprised if the QB position is an upgrade over the last two years. I expect something closer to the disaster that was the 2009 QB debacle, when we were breaking in very unexperienced QBs post-Chase.
2) Agreed, changes are needed and Bailiff should be gone. We cannot afford seasons where we scrap out four wins against the worst teams in FBS, plus one win against one of the worst teams in FCS. That is not a "down" year in C-USA 3.0. The down year was last year's 7-5 effort. Firing the coordinators will not do anything, unless the university decides to get its head out of its collective ass and shell out money for better coordinators. You get what you pay for and what we have right now is not good at all. If Bailiff is retained, but assistants are fired and there is no increase in salary pool for replacements, the university is setting him up to fail in his "prove it" year and would be better off just buying him out now.
3) Our schedule next year is tougher than this year's. Stanford and Baylor are already guaranteed blowout losses, no questions asked. Army is a road game next year. We'll play LaTech / USM on the road next year, the latter of which will undoubtedly be the division favorite. We'll play MTSU from the East (which will return its starting QB), as well as two others that are TBD as far as I know.
Given my opinions above, I just don't see a scenario where Bailiff produces a job saving performance next year. Although my definition of a job saving performance likely differs vastly from that of others on here.
Excellent post here, westsidewolf. I see the same 3 things you do. I don't see how just turning the calendar and reshuffling deck chairs on the Titanic accomplishes much good for Rice.
I do see how staying the course further damages the Rice brand (which is in pretty bad shape again now), how it makes it even harder to recruit (I believe recruits aren't as gullible as others might be here. Many of them would reasonably be expected to want to win and be relevant, having at least a chance to make some noise nationally at least once or twice in their college careers in addition to most of them getting their degrees).
I also think Bailiff is best looked at as a sunk cost. His last extension was foolish, but we have to accpet it and kiss that money goodbye. It's not like people are lining up to come to games or donate because of the product currently on the field. I'd completely understand some potential big booster's possible mentalities of not considering giving until Bailiff is gone. That may or may not be true, but it is easy to understand.
Throwing more good money after bad seems pointless. Thank Bailiff for what he did accomplish here, yes. But let him go now. Getting a start on the next phase with a new coach who can install his program and system in what by all measures looks to be another not so great year, and have the new coach in position to do better in 2017 when some of the tougher conference games are at home again, plus there is always the chance than he can catch a bit of lightning in a bottle and exceed expectations from the start. The endgame for Rice is not endless. There will come a time when we have waited too late and fallen too far behind and will have to drop it completely. It may already have come, but I don't see how all of a sudden Bailiff wakes up tomorrow and finally figures it out after 10 years. At some point, he is what he is, and it's not good enough for Rice. And if it is, then that says where we have sunk to.
(11-29-2015 08:54 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: The championship was a big deal - student support was fantastic despite absolutely abysmal weather conditions. I think that is proof it was a big deal.
The problem wasn't that the game and results weren't a big deal, the problem was that it was supposed to be the first step in the right direction, and immediately following that first step, we stumbled against Mississippi State and then followed that up with a relatively mediocre season.
There is no reason to diminish the accomplishment of winning a conference championship because it didn't immediately turn the program around - no single action will be able to accomplish that. If we beat the #1 team in the country we still have to follow that up with other wins to build a program and sustained interest. But if we did beat a #1 and then immediately faltered, I wouldn't say that beating the #1 team wasn't a big deal or was meaningless. Would you?
In short, a single game can both be a big deal and important but not move the needle if we fail to continue to produce that success.
Winning CUSA was a big deal at the time, considering it had been a while since we'd shared one. And you are correct that expectations and indications from the coach were that it was just a first step. The problem that some might have is when that one conference USA championship in nine seasons is touted as the main reason to ignore all the low performances of this regime. Maybe if it was a SWC championship, maybe. But it was not.
And I agree with you, Lad, one or even two signature wins will not by themselves turn the program around if they are not followed with overall consistent improvements in play. But we don't even have one let alone two. So not even started there.
There is a difference in Year 1 or two and year 10...or 15--ask Georgia, and he won two SEC championships (a tad harder than winning one CUSA championship) went to bowls all the time and had but one sub-eight win season...against SEC competition. Are they crazy unrealistic with their expectations of their coach at UGA? Probably. But are we crazy unrealistic in our assessment of what it will really take from a coach to do his part to help us climb out of the mess we're in and where we've fallen to? I believe so. I believe it will take a lot more than what Coach Bailiff has shown he is capable of here at Rice for about a decade. Thanks for what you did, have a nice bon voyage party, and let's build on it with a fresh face.
