Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15
From an Overall Perspective...
Well, it looks like 7 wins will still be the important number again this year. Looking at the lists, there are (barely) enough solid teams to receive At Large bids without resorting to going into the pool of 6-win teams. I could see that situation being different in future years, though.
The race for the Seeds will be very tough. There are probably around 10 teams that could make good claims towards the 8 Seeds, so there will be some angry people today when everything is announced. (Hopefully, we will not be among the angry.)
From a JMU Perspective...
Okay. The Dukes got the win that they needed. Standing at 9-2 with a I-A win, no bad losses, and a share of the CAA title, JMU should receive one of the Seeds. Hopefully, the Dukes will work on...well, everything. Offense...defense....they both need work if we hope to beat the tougher competition that we'll see in the playoffs.
By the Numbers (107 total teams)...
Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/18 – 98
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 66
11/8 – 48
11/15 – 36; 48 including 6-win teams
11/22 – 30; 43 including 6-win teams
Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/18 – 71
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 48
11/8 – 40
11/15 – 29; 41 including 6-win teams
11/22 – 20; 33 including 6-win teams
Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/18 – 1
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 8
11/8 – 11
11/15 – 13
11/22 – 20
Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.
Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky – Southern Utah
Big South – Charleston Southern
CAA – Richmond
MVC – NDSU
NEC – Duquesne
OVC – Jacksonville State
Patriot – Colgate
Pioneer – Dayton
SoCon – Chattanooga
Southland – McNeese State
CAA (5 Teams Alive)
Richmond – 8 wins – clinched AQ
JMU – 9 wins
W&M – 8 wins
Towson – 7 wins
UNH – 7 wins
Big Sky (4 Teams Alive)
Southern Utah – 7 wins – clinched AQ
Portland State – 8 wins
Montana – 7 wins
North Dakota – 7 wins
Big South (2 Teams Alive)
Charleston Southern – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Coastal Carolina – 9 wins
MEAC (3 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T – 8 wins - “bowl” game
Bethune-Cookman – 8 wins
SC State – 7 wins
NC Central – 7 wins
MVC (4 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Illinois State – 9 wins
SDSU – 8 wins
No. Iowa – 7 wins
NEC (1 Teams Alive)
Duquesne – 6 wins – clinched AQ
OVC (2 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 10 wins – clinched AQ
E. Illinois – 7 wins
Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)
Colgate – 7 wins – clinched AQ
Fordham – 9 wins
Pioneer League (2 Teams Alive)
Dayton – 10 wins – clinched AQ
San Diego – 7 wins
SoCon (2 Teams Alive)
Chatty – 7 wins – clinched AQ
Citadel – 8 wins
Southland (3 Teams Alive)
McNeese State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Central Ark. – 7 wins
Sam Houston State – 7 wins
Finished with 9 wins (without winning AQ):
JMU
Coastal Carolina
Illinois State
Fordham
Finished with 8 wins (without winning AQ):
W&M
Portland State
Bethune-Cookman
SDSU
Citadel
Finished with 7 wins (without winning AQ):
UNH
Towson
Montana
North Dakota
NC Central
SC State
No. Iowa
E. Illinois
San Diego
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State
Finished with 6 wins (without winning AQ):
Villanova
EWU
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Liberty
StFU
W. Illinois
EKU
Tenn.-Martin
Holy Cross
Lehigh
Morehead State
W. Carolina
Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
Gardner-Webb (too dumb for postseason)
Abilene Christian (transition to D1)
Incarnate Word (transition to D1)
Jacksonville (caught cheating by the Pioneer)
Stony Brook
Albany
URI
Maine
Delaware
Elon
Northern Colorado
Cal Poly
Idaho State
UC Davis
Sac State
Montana State
Monmouth
Presbyterian
Kennesaw State
ETSU
Delaware State
Howard
Morgan State
Norfolk State
Hampton
Missouri State
Indiana State
So. Illinois
Youngstown State
South Dakota
Robert Morris
Sacred Heart
Wagner
Cent. Conn. State
Bryant
Tenn. State
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
Austin Peay
SE Missouri State
Lafayette
Bucknell
Georgetown
Valparaiso
Davidson
Stetson
Butler
Campbell
Drake
Marist
Samford
Wofford
VMI
Furman
Mercer
Houston Baptist
NW State
Nichols State
SE Louisiana
Lamar
Stephen F. Austin
Perfection (no losses of any type)
McNeese State
The Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Delaware State
Austin Peay
Conference Analysis
CAA – With the regular season over, the CAA now stands as the only conference with five teams with 7 or more wins. Richmond, W&M, and JMU finish at the top of the standings with 6-2. The first tie-breaker to determine the AQ is the head-to-head-to-head record between all three schools. JMU lost to both Richmond and W&M, so they are eliminated. Since Richmond beat W&M, the Ticks get the AQ. Both JMU and W&M will get At Large bids, so now we need to see who gets a Seed. It is very likely two of the three teams will, but there are arguments for and against each team. Sitting on the bubble with 7 wins are UNH and Towson. Of the two, UNH probably has the edge – the Committee knows that most of UNH's losses came when their QB was injured. Since that QB has come back, they started winning again – including a win over Richmond. Towson also still has a decent shot. Their best win was against Villanova, but they did lose to Elon. If they get in, it will be as one of the final teams.
Big Sky – Fortunately, SUU did their part and won the AQ outright by beating NAU (their best win). Sitting solidly in 2nd place is Portland State – the Big Sky's best chance for a Seed. Their two I-A wins, plus some good wins over the top teams in the conference, should get them their Seed. Montana was able to get to 7 wins (some of them very good), so they should get an At Large. North Dakota was the only other team to make it to the 7-win mark. It will be tough for them to get a bid – the loss to Idaho State could really hurt them. Sitting with only 6 wins is EWU. I think they will be left out – that 41 point loss to Montana two weeks ago is just too much to overcome.
Big South – Coastal and Charleston Southern both entered the week with the playoff spots basically secured – the only question was if they could secure Seeds. Well, they both lost. Now, while Charleston's loss was not surprising (to Alabama), Coastal's loss to Liberty likely cost them a Seed. (Their best win is over Western Illinois.) There is a good chance that the Big Sky will be left out of the Seed picture entirely.
MEAC – The MEAC gave up their AQ to participate in a bowl versus the SWAC on ESPN, so the 1st place team will not make the playoffs. Could a 2nd place team be offered an At Large? I hope not. I do not see either Bethune-Cookman or NC Central as deserving of an At Large.
MVC – With NDSU's win, they took the AQ. Tied for first is Illinois State who will also easily receive a Seed. SDSU, however, lost their chance for three MVC Seeds. Their loss to Western Illinois came at the wrong time. Unfortunately for them, they might find themselves facing a Big Sky team in the 1st round.
NEC – Duquesne won the AQ by beating StFU. StFU finished with 6 wins – they're done. The NEC is a one-bid league, so everything here is pretty straight-forward.
OVC – Jacksonville State won again to finish 10-1 (10-0 in I-AA) and they should get the #1 Seed. That being said, I don't think they are nearly as scary to opponents as NDSU was the last few years. It will be very interesting to see if they can get to the championship. The EKU/EIU game was basically a playoff game – the winner would reach 7 wins and likely an At Large bid, while the loser's season is likely over. EIU won. EKU now finishes in 4th place in the OVC (behind Tennessee-Martin) with no impressive wins.
Patriot – Colgate had already secured the AQ and Fordham finished their season last week, so all eyes were elsewhere this week. Fordham is hoping for a Seed, but I think they will be disappointed. A win over Army is great, but losing to Colgate when it counts is just not Seed-worthy.
Pioneer – Dayton already took the AQ, but now they entered the week trying to see if they could steal a Seed by going undefeated. With their loss to Drake, that dream is gone. I am not sure who they will play in the first round, but they have already played (and beat) Duquesne, so it won't be them.
SoCon – Who will get a Seed from the SoCon? The Citadel pulled off the SEC upset this week, which gives them a great argument. But Chatty beat the Citadel just last week. However, I think Chatty's loss to Mercer 2 weeks ago puts them just behind the Citadel now. But it could be a coin flip – or they even could both be playing next weekend.
Southland – McNeese squeaked out a win to stay undefeated for the season (with one cancellation). Meanwhile, Sam Houston crushed Central Arkansas to secure an At Large. Central Arkansas now has to sweat out the selection show. None of their wins are impressive, so it will be very close.
My Playoff Predictions:
Seeds (in no particular order)
Jacksonville State
NDSU
Illinois State
Richmond
JMU
Citadel
McNeese State
Portland State
First Round Matchups
Southern Utah
Sam Houston State
UNH
Fordham
Colgate
Dayton
Duquesne
Chattanooga
Charleston Southern
W&M
Coastal Carolina
E. Illinois
Portland State
SDSU
Montana
No. Iowa
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Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15
